Invbots training materials 20210104 - Macro Strategy

1. Investment Competition/
Traders Academy
Macro Strategy
04-Jan-2021
1

2. 2
2020 was a terrible year
2021 will be a better year
How well will equity market perform in 2021?
Expectation vs. Performance

3. 3
● Price trend driven by both Top down (Macro) and Bottom up (Fundamental) factors
● Understand the rationale behind market trend
● Key Macro events: Interest rates, Politics, Domestic and foreign policies, International
trade, Currency exchange rates
Key macro funds
● Hedge funds: Bridgewater Associates, Caxton Associates, Soros Fund Management
● Sovereign funds: Norway Government Pension Fund, China Investment Corporations
(CIC), Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, Kuwait Investment Authority, Temasek/GIC
Why studying Macro trend?

4. 4
● A global macro strategy is a hedge fund or mutual fund strategy that bases its holdings
primarily on the overall economic and political views of various countries.
● Global macro funds generally use a combination of currency-based, interest
rate-based, and stock index-based trading strategies.
○ Discretionary global macro funds construct portfolios at the asset-class level based on a top-level view
of the global markets.
○ Commodity trading advisor (CTA) global macro funds use various investment products, But rather than
creating portfolios based on top-level views, these funds use price-based and trend-following algorithms
to help construct portfolios and execute the fund's trades.
○ Systematic global macro funds use fundamental analysis to build portfolios and execute trades using
algorithms. This type of fund is essentially a hybrid of discretionary global macro and CTA funds
What is Global Macro Strategy?

5. 5
Global Macro Views...
Source: JP Asset Management - Global Asset Allocation Views 1Q 2021

6. Global Asset Allocations
6

7. 7
● Global equity market is smaller than Global Real Estate and Global Fixed Income
Global Asset Classes Size

8. 8
● The movements in assets or liabilities of the Fed to predict changes in economic cycles
● The Fed's Assets: Government securities and loans extended to member banks through the repo and discount window.
● The Fed’s Liabilities: U.S. currency in circulation. Other liabilities include money held in the reserve accounts of member
banks and U.S. depository institutions.
Massive liquidity from Central Banks QEs
Shading Area -> Recession Period
● Expansion of the Fed’s
Balance Sheet
Fed’s Asset soared 929% since 2002

9. 9
- Steepening US 10Y Bond Yield
- What is the implications to the equity market?
US10 Yield rising, implying falling bond market
Source: REITbots

10. 10
Yield curve steepening benefiting equity market
Source: REITbots

11. 11
Potential Capital Flow to the equity market
● US10Y (Orange) vs GOVT (US Treasury Bond ETF) (Blue)
● Inverse Relationship
● Where does the capital flow to?
Source: Tradingview

12. 12
Valuation methodology - Equity vs other assets
Asset class Valuation methodology
Real Estate Demand/supply in coming months; Discounted future rental, Cost of capital
Fixed Income Discounted future dividend income and principal repayment (+ default risk premium)
Equity Expectation on future revenue, earnings, cashflow and dividend (story telling)
Commodities Spot demand and supply + expectation on demand/supply delta
Gold Spot demand and supply + Political risk hedge
Crypto-currency Expectation on the expectation of potential investors on Crypto-currency

13. Equity market
13

14. 14
Equity market - factor analysis

15. 15
Currency an important factor but correlations changing
-ve
correlation
+ve correlation
+ve -ve correlationCSI300 vs.
USDCNH
CNH appreciation
attract capital
inflow
CNH depreciation
leading to
attractive market
value
-ve
Source: Tradingview

16. 16
Market Cap factor - FAANG outperforming in 1-year
FAANG Index
Nasdaq 100
Nasdaq

17. 17
Market Cap factor - Small cap outperforming since Nov

18. 18
Market Cap factor - FAANG outperforming on 28th Dec

19. 19
Is Equity Index a good proxy of market sentiment?
Index Number of constituents Market cap (US$ bn) Mkt Cap (% of Total)
Hang Seng Index 50 $3,317.77 bn
(as of 2020/12/29)
56%
S&P500 500 $30,010 bn
(as of 2020/9/30)
83%
CSI300 300 $6,231.41 bn
(as of 2020/9/30)
73%

20. 20
Daily leading factors of equity market
Index Key input factors of equity index
HK market ● S&P/Nasdaq performance (close at 4/5am)
● CSI 300 as leading indicator (pre-market at 915am, 9.30-11.30am, 1-3pm)
● HSI future trading (915am-12pm, 1pm-430pm; night session: 5:15 pm - 3:00 am)
● US Pre-market trading (4-9.30am EST) and after-hours trading (4-8pm EST)
● China economic indicators
US market ● US Pre-market trading (4-9.30am EST)
● Europe market trading (8-4.30pm Europe time/3-1130pm HKT)
● VIX level
China A-share ● S&P/Nasdaq performance (close at 4/5am)
● China economic indicators: reverse purchase, inflation, import/export

21. Events
21

22. 22
Key events in 2021
Jan
3-5/1 US Senate election in Georgia
US earnings (mid-Jan to Feb)
US market - January effect
US President Inauguration (potential new
stimulus)
26-27/1 FOMC meeting
Feb
US earnings (mid-Jan to Feb)
Chinese New Year
HK final earnings (late Feb to Mar)
S&P / HSI rebalancing announcement
Mar
S&P / HSI rebalancing (effective)
China People’s Congress
HK final earnings (late Feb to Mar)
China 4Q earnings (Mar)
16-17/3 FOMC meeting (dot plot)
1Q Fund rebalancing / US 13-F filing
Apr
China 1Q earnings (Apr)
US earnings (mid-Apr to May)
27-28/4 FOMC meeting
May
UK Scottish election
US earnings (mid-Apr to May)
HK final earnings (late Feb to Mar)
S&P / HSI rebalancing announcement
HK 1Q earnings (May)
HK full-year ex-dividend
Jun
S&P / HSI rebalancing (effective)
US earnings (mid-Apr to May)
15-16/6 FOMC meeting (dot plot)
2Q Fund rebalancing / US 13-F filing
Jul
China 2Q earnings (Jul-Aug)
China A-share dividend payment
Amazon Prime Day
US earnings (mid-Jul to Aug)
27-28/7 FOMC meeting
Aug
US earnings (mid-Jul to Aug)
S&P / HSI rebalancing announcement
HK 2Q earnings (Aug-Sep)
China 2Q earnings (Jul-Aug)
Jackson Hole Symposium
Sep
Apple product announcement
HK 1H/2Q earnings (Aug-Sep)
S&P / HSI rebalancing (effective)
21-22/9 FOMC meeting (dot plot)
26/9 Germany election
3Q Fund rebalancing / US 13-F filing
Oct
China National Day (long holiday)
US 3Q earnings (mid-Oct to Nov)
China 3Q earnings (Oct)
China CCP Central Committee meeting
(Oct)
22/10 Japan Parliament election
Nov
2-3/11 FOMC meeting
US 3Q earnings (mid-Oct to Nov)
S&P / HSI rebalancing announcement
HK 3Q earnings (Nov)
Black Friday/China’s Single’s Day
Dec
US market - Tax loss harvesting
S&P / HSI rebalancing (effective)
14-15/12 FOMC meeting (dot plot)
4Q Fund rebalancing / US 13-F filing

23. 23
The January Effect & Tax-Loss Harvesting
● The January Effect: refers to the tendency of stocks to have higher return in January
○ an average gain of 1.8% in the first month of the year v.s. 0.7% in other months, according to a
2019 MarketWatch analysis
○ as investors sell losing stocks at the end of the year to lock in tax losses, and then buy them back
after the calendar turns.
● Tax-Loss Harvesting:
From observation:
○ unusually high sales of stocks with capital losses at the end of the tax year
○ realization of gains is unusually low in December
● Under current U.S. tax law, capital gains and losses are generally subject to taxation only when the
asset is sold.
○ an incentive to realize capital losses immediately and to postpone the realization of capital gains,
thus tending to minimize the present value of tax liabilitie
➝ Behavioral Pattern: i.) Buying losers in January / February ii.) Selling winners in January / February

24. 24
Market volatility in January tends to increase
- Despite the theorectical January effect regarding the average return…
- Historical patterns shows that market volatility in Jan tends to above average and is the
highest among the all months

25. 25
Fund rebalancing / 13F impact
Fund rebalancing
● Institutional/individual investors rebalance portfolio on quarterly basis
● Rebalance portfolio to achieve an optimal Fixed Income/ Equity % (for instance, if
equity has a strong rally in 2Q, fund will likely sell down 2Q in Sep and buy bonds)
13F filing
● US SEC Form 13F is a quarterly report that is required to be filed by all institutional
investment managers with (>US$100 million in AUM). It discloses their equity
holdings and can provide some insights into what the smart money actions.
● Fund managers will likely window-dress portfolio before 13F filing (for instance, for
instance, large funds sell super small cap before report. Fund managers will likely
maintain or increase core holding before 13F filing.

26. US Presidential election impact to index
Example: 2020 US Presidential Election

27. Probability that SPX close above the event day
I. If highlighted in Green -> Long SPX
II.If highlighted in Red-> Short SPX
Example:
According to historical pattern,
- 86% chance that S&P 500 will close higher the first
day after the 1st Presidential Debate
- ∵Expectation of policy changes….
Example:
According to historical pattern,
- Only 29% chance that S&P 500 will close higher the 3 & 5
day after the 2nd Presidential Debate
- ∵Uncertainty arises regarding the election result
Example:
According to historical pattern,
- 0% chance that S&P 500 will close above the election day
- In other words, 100% chance that S&P 500 will rise on the
election day

28. 28
Political Conflicts: US-China Tension
1. May 5, 2019
Trump tweets that he intends to raise the tariffs on $200
billion of Chinese goods to 25%
2. June 29, 2019
At the G20 meeting in Osaka, Trump agrees to no new
tariffs and to ease restrictions on Huawei. Xi agrees to
unspecified new purchases of U.S. farm products.
3. Aug. 1, 2019
Trump announces 10% tariffs on $300 billion worth of
Chinese imports, after two days of talks with no progress.
4. Aug. 5, 2019
China halts purchases of U.S. agricultural products, and
the Chinese yuan weakens past the key seven per dollar
level. Equity markets plummet.
5. Aug. 23, 2019
China announces additional retaliatory tariffs on about
$75 billion worth of U.S. goods.
6. Oct. 11
After two days of high-level talks, Trump announces a
Phase 1 deal that includes suspension of planned tariffs
and a Chinese pledge to buy more farm goods.

29. 29
Economic Stimulus:
EURUSD hikes from the pandemic bottom due to the EU unprecedented
purchase programme
ECB rolled out the pandemic
emergency purchase
programme (PEPP) (€750
billion envelope) in March.
The Governing Council
decided to increase the initial
€750 billion envelope for the
PEPP by €600 billion on 4
June 2020
It decided to increase the
envelope again by €500
billion on 10 December, for a
new total of €1,850 billion.
Source: Tradingview

30. US Dollar Index: Persistent DXY downtrend support the equity market and
commodities prices (Negative Relationship)
- ∵ Most of the commodities are priced in USD
30
S&P 500
Copper
Future Price
WTI Crude Oil
Future Price
Gold Future
Price
DXY
Source: Tradingview

31. 31
-ve
correlation+ve+ve correlation
SPX vs DXY
Massive QE to stimulate
the equity market and
drive the US dollar to
depreciate
-ve
Correlation between DXY & the equity market
Investor choose to hold more
secure asset (i.e. USD) rather
than other countries’ currencies
amid the global recession
- Generally negative correlated
- USD traditionally regarded as safe-haven asset (i. when market up, short USD to buy stock ii. when market goes
down, hold USD / buy USD to repay debt)

32. 32
DXY historical cycle: A potential dollar bear market coming?
Source: Capital Group 2021 Outlook

33. ETF
33

34. 34
Why investing into ETF?
● What is ETF?
○ An exchange traded fund (ETF) is a basket of securities that trade on an exchange,
just like a stock.
○ ETFs can contain all types of investments including stocks, commodities, or bonds
Reasons to invest into ETF
● Thematic investment
● Smaller budget to cover a broader base of assets
● Risk management through diversification

35. 35
Concerns on ETF investment
● Potential high commission
● Forced to buy stocks at high prices
○ E.g. Stocks to be included in major indexes will likely trade high before inclusion into Index, as
active investors expect prices of those stocks names will be supported by passive funds
○ E.g. Latest IPO under certain themes will be traded high if active investors expect those
themes will be well received by ETF investors
● High tracking error of certain ETFs
● Limited trading volume
● Counterparty risk

36. Market risk
36

37. 37
Risk management measures - VIX

38. 38
Risk management measures - VHSI

39. 39
Potential equity market risk in 2021
● Potential burst of Cryptocurrency bubble
● Disappointment on Covid-19 vaccination effectiveness
● Sudden rebound of DXY
● Over-valuation in equity market
● Deterioration of Sino-US relationship
● Sharp rise in inflation & rising expectation in rate hike
● Disappointment in economic growth
● Political risk in Middle East, Korea, Taiwan (China)
● Sharp decline in birth rate in the world
● Others
Google Form: https://forms.gle/ie4NZLEbMkrRHkNR7

40. Investment Competition/
Traders Academy
Macro Strategy
04-Jan-2021
40

41. 41
2020 was a terrible year
2021 will be a better year
How well will equity market perform in 2021?
Expectation vs. Performance

42. 42
● Price trend driven by both Top down (Macro) and Bottom up (Fundamental) factors
● Understand the rationale behind market trend
● Key Macro events: Interest rates, Politics, Domestic and foreign policies, International
trade, Currency exchange rates
Key macro funds
● Hedge funds: Bridgewater Associates, Caxton Associates, Soros Fund Management
● Sovereign funds: Norway Government Pension Fund, China Investment Corporations
(CIC), Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, Kuwait Investment Authority, Temasek/GIC
Why studying Macro trend?

43. 43
● A global macro strategy is a hedge fund or mutual fund strategy that bases its holdings
primarily on the overall economic and political views of various countries.
● Global macro funds generally use a combination of currency-based, interest
rate-based, and stock index-based trading strategies.
○ Discretionary global macro funds construct portfolios at the asset-class level based on a top-level view
of the global markets.
○ Commodity trading advisor (CTA) global macro funds use various investment products, But rather than
creating portfolios based on top-level views, these funds use price-based and trend-following algorithms
to help construct portfolios and execute the fund's trades.
○ Systematic global macro funds use fundamental analysis to build portfolios and execute trades using
algorithms. This type of fund is essentially a hybrid of discretionary global macro and CTA funds
What is Global Macro Strategy?

44. 44
Global Macro Views...
Source: JP Asset Management - Global Asset Allocation Views 1Q 2021

45. Global Asset Allocations
45

46. 46
● Global equity market is smaller than Global Real Estate and Global Fixed Income
Global Asset Classes Size

47. 47
● The movements in assets or liabilities of the Fed to predict changes in economic cycles
● The Fed's Assets: Government securities and loans extended to member banks through the repo and discount window.
● The Fed’s Liabilities: U.S. currency in circulation. Other liabilities include money held in the reserve accounts of member
banks and U.S. depository institutions.
Massive liquidity from Central Banks QEs
Shading Area -> Recession Period
● Expansion of the Fed’s
Balance Sheet
Fed’s Asset soared 929% since 2002

48. 48
- Steepening US 10Y Bond Yield
- What is the implications to the equity market?
US10 Yield rising, implying falling bond market
Source: REITbots

49. 49
Yield curve steepening benefiting equity market
Source: REITbots

50. 50
Potential Capital Flow to the equity market
● US10Y (Orange) vs GOVT (US Treasury Bond ETF) (Blue)
● Inverse Relationship
● Where does the capital flow to?
Source: Tradingview

51. 51
Valuation methodology - Equity vs other assets
Asset class Valuation methodology
Real Estate Demand/supply in coming months; Discounted future rental, Cost of capital
Fixed Income Discounted future dividend income and principal repayment (+ default risk premium)
Equity Expectation on future revenue, earnings, cashflow and dividend (story telling)
Commodities Spot demand and supply + expectation on demand/supply delta
Gold Spot demand and supply + Political risk hedge
Crypto-currency Expectation on the expectation of potential investors on Crypto-currency

52. Equity market
52

53. 53
Equity market - factor analysis
● Fama French Model (1992) - CAPM, size,
Value
● 8 common factors + Country/Currency
● Risky for investors to focus exclusively on a
single factor
● Diversify across various factors
Source: MSCI

54. 54
Currency an important factor but correlations changing
-ve
correlation
+ve correlation
+ve -ve correlationCSI300 vs.
USDCNH
CNH appreciation
attract capital
inflow
CNH depreciation
leading to
attractive market
value
-ve
Source: Tradingview

55. 55
Market Cap factor - FAANG outperforming in 1-year
FAANG Index
Nasdaq 100
Nasdaq

56. 56
Market Cap factor - Small cap outperforming since Nov

57. 57
Market Cap factor - FAANG outperforming on 28th Dec

58. 58
Is Equity Index a good proxy of market sentiment?
Index Number of constituents Market cap (US$ bn) Mkt Cap (% of Total)
Hang Seng Index 50 $3,317.77 bn
(as of 2020/12/29)
56%
S&P500 500 $30,010 bn
(as of 2020/9/30)
83%
CSI300 300 $6,231.41 bn
(as of 2020/9/30)
73%

59. 59
Daily leading factors of equity market
Index Key input factors of equity index
HK market ● S&P/Nasdaq performance (close at 4/5am)
● CSI300 as leading indicator (pre-market at 915am, 9.30-11.30am, 1-3pm)
● HSI future trading (915am-12pm, 1pm-430pm; night session: 5:15 pm - 3:00 am)
● US Pre-market trading (4-9.30am EST) and after-hours trading (4-8pm EST)
● China economic indicators
US market ● US Pre-market trading (4-9.30am EST)
● Europe market trading (8-4.30pm Europe time/3-1130pm HKT)
● VIX level
China A-share ● S&P/Nasdaq performance (close at 4/5am)
● China economic indicators: reverse purchase, inflation, import/export

60. Events
60

61. 61
Key events in 2021
Jan
3-5/1 US Senate election in Georgia
US earnings (mid-Jan to Feb)
Potential January effect
US President Inauguration (potential new
stimulus)
26-27/1 FOMC meeting
Feb
US earnings (mid-Jan to Feb)
Chinese New Year
HK final earnings (late Feb to Mar)
S&P / HSI rebalancing announcement
Mar
S&P / HSI rebalancing (effective)
China People’s Congress
HK final earnings (late Feb to Mar)
China 4Q earnings (Mar)
16-17/3 FOMC meeting (dot plot)
1Q Fund rebalancing / US 13-F filing
Apr
China 1Q earnings (Apr)
US earnings (mid-Apr to May)
27-28/4 FOMC meeting
May
UK Scottish election
US earnings (mid-Apr to May)
HK final earnings (late Feb to Mar)
S&P / HSI rebalancing announcement
HK 1Q earnings (May)
HK full-year ex-dividend
Jun
S&P / HSI rebalancing (effective)
US earnings (mid-Apr to May)
15-16/6 FOMC meeting (dot plot)
2Q Fund rebalancing / US 13-F filing
Jul
China 2Q earnings (Jul-Aug)
China A-share dividend payment
Amazon Prime Day
US earnings (mid-Jul to Aug)
27-28/7 FOMC meeting
Aug
US earnings (mid-Jul to Aug)
S&P / HSI rebalancing announcement
HK 2Q earnings (Aug-Sep)
China 2Q earnings (Jul-Aug)
Jackson Hole Symposium
Sep
Apple product announcement
HK 1H/2Q earnings (Aug-Sep)
S&P / HSI rebalancing (effective)
21-22/9 FOMC meeting (dot plot)
26/9 Germany election
3Q Fund rebalancing / US 13-F filing
Oct
China National Day (long holiday)
US 3Q earnings (mid-Oct to Nov)
China 3Q earnings (Oct)
China CCP Central Committee meeting
(Oct)
22/10 Japan Parliament election
Nov
2-3/11 FOMC meeting
US 3Q earnings (mid-Oct to Nov)
S&P / HSI rebalancing announcement
HK 3Q earnings (Nov)
Black Friday/China’s Single’s Day
Dec
US market - Tax loss harvesting
S&P / HSI rebalancing (effective)
14-15/12 FOMC meeting (dot plot)
4Q Fund rebalancing / US 13-F filing

62. 62
The January Effect & Tax-Loss Harvesting
● The January Effect: refers to the tendency of stocks to have higher return in January
○ an average gain of 1.8% in the first month of the year v.s. 0.7% in other months, according to a
2019 MarketWatch analysis
○ as investors sell losing stocks at the end of the year to lock in tax losses, and then buy them back
after the calendar turns.
● Tax-Loss Harvesting:
From observation:
○ unusually high sales of stocks with capital losses at the end of the tax year
○ realization of gains is unusually low in December
● Under current U.S. tax law, capital gains and losses are generally subject to taxation only when the
asset is sold.
○ an incentive to realize capital losses immediately and to postpone the realization of capital gains,
thus tending to minimize the present value of tax liabilitie
➝ Behavioral Pattern: i.) Buying losers in January / February ii.) Selling winners in January / February

63. 63
Fund rebalancing / 13F impact
Fund rebalancing
● Institutional/individual investors rebalance portfolio on quarterly basis
● Rebalance portfolio to achieve an optimal Fixed Income/ Equity % (for instance, if
equity has a strong rally in 2Q, fund will likely sell down 2Q in Sep and buy bonds)
13F filing
● US SEC Form 13F is a quarterly report that is required to be filed by all institutional
investment managers with (>US$100 million in AUM). It discloses their equity
holdings and can provide some insights into what the smart money actions.
● Fund managers will likely window-dress portfolio before 13F filing (for instance, for
instance, large funds sell super small cap before report. Fund managers will likely
maintain or increase core holding before 13F filing.

64. US Presidential election impact to index
Example: 2020 US Presidential Election

65. Probability that SPX close above the event day
I. If highlighted in Green -> Long SPX
II.If highlighted in Red-> Short SPX
Example:
According to historical pattern,
- 86% chance that S&P 500 will close higher the first
day after the 1st Presidential Debate
- ∵Expectation of policy changes….
Example:
According to historical pattern,
- Only 29% chance that S&P 500 will close higher the 3 & 5
day after the 2nd Presidential Debate
- ∵Uncertainty arises regarding the election result
Example:
According to historical pattern,
- 0% chance that S&P 500 will close above the election day
- In other words, 100% chance that S&P 500 will rise on the
election day

66. 66
Political Conflicts: US-China Tension
1. May 5, 2019
Trump tweets that he intends to raise the tariffs on $200
billion of Chinese goods to 25%
2. June 29, 2019
At the G20 meeting in Osaka, Trump agrees to no new
tariffs and to ease restrictions on Huawei. Xi agrees to
unspecified new purchases of U.S. farm products.
3. Aug. 1, 2019
Trump announces 10% tariffs on $300 billion worth of
Chinese imports, after two days of talks with no progress.
4. Aug. 5, 2019
China halts purchases of U.S. agricultural products, and
the Chinese yuan weakens past the key seven per dollar
level. Equity markets plummet.
5. Aug. 23, 2019
China announces additional retaliatory tariffs on about
$75 billion worth of U.S. goods.
6. Oct. 11
After two days of high-level talks, Trump announces a
Phase 1 deal that includes suspension of planned tariffs
and a Chinese pledge to buy more farm goods.

67. 67
Economic Stimulus:
EURUSD hikes from the pandemic bottom due to the EU unprecedented
purchase programme
ECB rolled out the pandemic
emergency purchase
programme (PEPP) (€750
billion envelope) in March.
The Governing Council
decided to increase the initial
€750 billion envelope for the
PEPP by €600 billion on 4
June 2020
It decided to increase the
envelope again by €500
billion on 10 December, for a
new total of €1,850 billion.
Source: Tradingview

68. US Dollar Index: Persistent DXY downtrend support the equity market and
commodities prices (Negative Relationship)
- ∵ Most of the commodities are priced in USD
S&P 500
Copper
Future Price
WTI Crude Oil
Future Price
Gold Future
Price
DXY

69. 69
Correlation between DXY & the equity market
-ve
correlation+ve+ve correlation
SPX vs DXY
Massive QE to stimulate
the equity market and
drive the US dollar to
depreciate
-ve
Investor choose to hold more
secure asset (i.e. USD) rather
than other countries’ currencies
amid the global recession
- Generally negative correlated
- USD traditionally regarded as safe-haven asset (i. when market up, short USD to buy stock ii. when market goes
down, hold USD / buy USD to repay debt)

70. 70
DXY historical cycle: A potential dollar bear market coming?
Source: Capital Group 2021 Outlook

71. ETF
71

72. 72
Why investing into ETF?
● What is ETF?
○ An exchange traded fund (ETF) is a basket of securities that trade on an exchange, just
like a stock.
○ ETFs can contain all types of investments including stocks, commodities, or bonds
Reasons to invest into ETF
● Thematic investment
● LImited budget to invest a group of broad based assets
● Risk management through diversification
● Leveraged ETFs allowing investors to buy internal leverage assets without external leverage
● Flexible trading, greater transparency, better tax efficiency

73. 73
Concerns on ETF investment
● Potential high commission
● Forced to buy stocks at high prices
○ E.g. Stocks to be included in major indexes will likely trade high before inclusion into Index, as
active investors expect prices of those stocks names will be supported by passive funds
○ E.g. Latest IPO under certain themes will be traded high if active investors expect those
themes will be well received by ETF investors
● High tracking error of certain ETFs
● Limited trading volume
● Counterparty risk

74. Market risk
74

75. 75
Risk management approaches
● Cash holdings as a direct risk management approach
● Sector/country/factor rotation
● Buy VIX etf and leveraged etf

76. 76
Risk management measures - VIX

77. 77
Risk management measures - VHSI

78. 78
● Potential burst of Cyptocurrency bubble
● Disappointment on Covid-19 vaccination effectiveness
● Widespread of Covid-19 leading to further economy lockdown
● Sudden rebound of DXY
● Over-valuation in equity market
● Deterioration of Sino-US relationship
● Sharp rise in inflation & rising expectation in rate hike
● Quantitative easing programme potential suspension
● Disappointment in economy growth
● Political risk in Middle East, Korea, Taiwan (China)
● Sharp fall in oil price
● Sharp decline in birth rate in the world
● Others
Potential equity market risk in 2021