Workshop on climate change and uncertainty from below and above, Delhi. http://steps-centre.org/2016/blog/climate-change-and-uncertainty-from-above-and-below/

1. The Climate Change Dilemma: Big Science, the Globalizing of Climate and the
Loss of the Human Scale
Matthias Heymann
Aarhus University
Centre for Science Studies
Centre for Science Studies

2. Shaping cultures of prediction:
Knowledge, Authority, and the Construction of Climate Change (ca. 1960-
1985)
Funded by the Danish Research Council, 2013-2016
Janet Martin-
Nielsen
Gabriel
Henderson
Dania
Achermann
Matthias
Heymann

3. “This Changes Everything review - Naomi Klein's
documentary on climate change doesn't”
Guardian review (17 Sept. 2015)
Naomi Klein: „I’ve always kind of hated films about climate
change ... they’re boring, they’re presumptive, they always,
always include shots of polar bears.”
Guardian review: “Klein’s absolutely right. Climate change
documentaries struggle to make the story personal. (…).
The breadth of the problem is too large to filter through
relatable characters easily. Unfortunately Avi Lewis’s film -
despite its good looks and fine intentions - fails in exactly the
same ways.”

4. (IPCC, AR5, 2013, p. 6)

5. Loss of the human scale
• Climate research has provided global and large-
scale information on climate change and its drivers.
• It was less able to provide locally relevant information,
which links to local experiences, political institutions
and policy demands.
• Climate knowledge became detached from humans. It
detached knowledge-making from meaning-making
and global fact from local value (Jasanoff)
Climate change dilemma

6. Hypothesis:
Climate knowledge changed significantly during the 20th
century. It experienced globalization, dehumanization
and a loss of human scales.
Question:
How and why did climate knowledge experience
globalization, dehumanization and a loss of human
scales?

7. Content:
2. The „conquest of the third dimension“
3. Investigation of climatic changes
1. The ‚classical‘ climatological research tradition
7. Conclusions
4. The physical understanding of the atmosphere
and the rise of climate modeling
5. The CO2-problem
6. Uncertainties and trust in global models

8. Content:
2. The „conquest of the third dimension“
3. Investigation of climatic changes
1. The ‚classical‘ climatological research tradition
7. Conclusions
4. The physical understanding of the atmosphere
and the rise of climate modeling
5. The CO2-problem
6. Uncertainties and trust in global models

9. Painting of Joseph Stieler, 1843
Alexander von Humboldt
„The term climate denotes in its
most general sense all changes of
the atmosphere, which directly
impact our organs ...“
(Humboldt 1845).
• associated with a concrete
geographical location.
• direct relation to human beings
The emergence of „classical climatology“
• on the surface of the earth
• holistic

10. Julius von Hann, Office of Meteorology
and Geomagnetism, Vienna
„Under climate we understand
the totality of meteorological
phenomena, which describe
the average state of the
atmosphere over a specific
location on earth.“
(Hann 1883)
• „Climatology of
averages“
• Stability of climate
The emergence of „classical climatology“

11. Wladimir Peter Köppen,
German Marine Observatory
in Hamburg
• Systematization of
climates
• Definition of climate
classes
• Development of a
climate map
The emergence of „classical climatology“

12. Climate map after Köppen (Kottek et al. 2006)
The emergence of „classical climatology“

13. • Urban climatology
• Bioclimatology and
agrometeorology
• Microclimatology
• Historical climatology
Differentiation of classical climatology

14. Characteristics of ‚classical climatology‘
Priority of geographical space (2-dim.)
• Atmospheric phenomena on the surface of the earth
Dominant tradition until the mid-20th
century
• Geographical science with interest in local detail
• Based on local observations; strong empirical tradition
• Holistic approach (human-climate interaction)
• Focus on human scales and dimensions

15. Content:
2. The „conquest of the third dimension“
1. The ‚classical‘ climatological research tradition
7. Conclusions
4. The physical understanding of the atmosphere
and the rise of climate modeling
5. The CO2-problem
3. Investigation of climatic changes
6. Uncertainties and trust in global models

16. 2. The „conquest of the third dimension“
Airplane of the Wright brothers
in 1904
Zeppelin L 10 in 1912
Airtraffic required good knowledge of the meteorology of
higher layers of the atmosphere.

17. • 1920s: strong winds above 10 km height (Wasaburo
Ooishi, Johannes Georgi)
The rise of aerology
• 1900s: Soundings with kites and balloons
• 1930s: systematic,
internationally coordinated
vertical sounding with
radiosondes
• 1939: term „jet stream“ („Strahlstrom“) introduced by
Heinrich Seilkopf

18. High altitude weather maps since 1935
500 mb level, 31 January 1953
Richard Scherhag
(1907-1970)

19. Theory of coherent planetary circulation
Hermann Flohn
(1912-1997)

20. Globalization of climatological knowledge
• Discovery of large-scale and global physical interactions
• Global knowledge for explaining regional phenomena
(weather forecasting, monsoon)
• Expansion beyond human dimensions
• Still focus on empirical tradition and local detail
• Strong personal relation to and identification with local
weather and climate
Priority of space including
the vertical dimension

21. Content:
2. The „conquest of the third dimension“
3. Investigation of climatic changes
1. The ‚classical‘ climatological research tradition
7. Conclusions
4. The physical understanding of the atmosphere
and the rise of climate modeling
5. The CO2-problem
6. Uncertainties and trust in global models

22. Glaciological field research
Hans Wilhelmsson Ahlmann (1889-1974)
Investigation of ice budgets of glaciers in the 1930s by Swedish
glaciologist Hans W. Ahlmann

23. Callendar‘s theory of global warming
by accumulation of CO2
Temperature records from 1820 to 1935
Guy Callendar

24. Climatologists response
• Scepticism with regard to Callendar‘s global
explanatory approach
• Callendar could not explain the majority of regional
and local details of climatic shifts
• Alternative explanation by Richard Scherhag: warming
due to temporary geographical shifts of the
atmospheric circulation
• Stronger focus on the investigation of climatic
changes within human times scales

25. • Collection of historical weather
data (since mid-1950s)
• Investigation and understanding of
past climate and its variations
Historical climatology
Hubert H. Lamb
(1913-1997)
“Without a record of climate’s past behavior extending back
(…), the subject would be in the situation of a branch of
physics in which the basic laboratory observations of the
phenomena to be explained had not been made. There can
be no sound theory without such an observation record”.
(Lamb 1986, p. 17).

26. Hans von Rudloff: The variations and oscillations of climate in
Europe since the beginning of regular instrumental
observation (1967)
Climatic variation
„These small climatic changes,
fluctuations and oscillations will
only with the help of exact, tested
and homogenuous long term
observational series be
determined. Only this way we
receive incorrupt representations
about the limits, within which
climate fluctuates“ (p. 2).

27. Hermann Flohn
(1912-1997)
Development of a „modern climatology“
• Development of a
”modern” or ”general”
climatology
• Integration of geographical
and physical approaches
• Expansion of climatology
to all dimensions
• Consideration of global
interactions and local detail
Consideration of space and time (4-dim.)

28. Content:
2. The „conquest of the third dimension“
3. Investigation og climatic changes
1. The ‚classical‘ climatological research tradition
7. Conclusions
4. The physical understanding of the atmosphere
and the rise of climate modeling
5. The CO2-problem
6. Uncertainties and trust in global models

29. 4. The physical understanding of the atmo-
sphere and the rise of climate modeling
Vilhelm BjerknesComplete description of the
atmosphere (Bjerknes 1904)

30. • Definition of a grid
Lewis Fry Richardson
• „numerical“ solutions
The promise of weather forecasting

31. Carl-Gustav Rossby
WWII and Cold War: militarization of meteorology
John von Neumann
• Ample military funding
• Strong institutional expansion

32. John von Neumann‘s vision: the computer as scientific tool
ENIAC
Computer-based numerical weather prediction
Von Neumann‘s team for
numerical weather prediction

33. Conflict at the UK Meteorological Office
Lamb 1969: “The computer models of atmospheric behavior
and other climatic areas may be unrealistic, and may
therefore proceed too far and too fast on faulty basic
assumptions. Such developments should be preceded by
acquiring fuller and firmer factual knowledge” (p. 1215).
John B. Mason:
focus on numerical
weather prediction
Hubert Lamb lost
support at the UK
MetOffice

34. The rise of climate modelling,
1955-1970
• Drastically simplified model
• Simulation over a period
of about 30 days
Norman
Phillips
Successful experiment by
Norman Phillips 1955
Yale Mintz (1958):
“… the overall remarkable success achieved by Phillips in
using the hydrodynamical equations to predict the mean
zonal wind and (…) circulations of the atmosphere must be
considered one of the landmarks of meteorology.”

35. The rise of climate modelling, 1955-1970

36. Heuristic computer modeling
• Computer models
served to understand
atmospheric processes
• Simulations were
performed on large
grids elements
• Simulations included
significant simplifications
Priority of time

37. Content:
2. The „conquest of the third dimension“
1. The ‚classical‘ climatological research tradition
7. Conclusions
4. The physical understanding of the atmosphere
and the rise of climate modeling
5. The CO2-problem
6. Uncertainties and trust in global models
3. Investigation of climatic changes

38. 5. The CO2-problem
Report of the US
Presidential Scientific
Advisory Committee,
Washington 1965

39. Global CO2- and radiation budgets of the earth
Keeling curve (1971)
Charles KeelingGilbert Plass
Roger Revelle

40. John Murray Mitchell 1961, p. 237
Observations of decadal climatic change
Priority of time

41. William Welch Kellogg (1971, p. 123):
“there is the haunting realization that man may be able
to change the climate of the planet Earth. This, I
believe, is one of the most important questions of our
time, and it must certainly rank near the top of the
priority list in atmospheric science.”
Climate modeling and the CO2 problem
Kellogg’s demand: “Predicting the Climate”

42. (Kellogg 1977, p. 24)
Kellogg’s prediction of future climate

43. (p. 965)
Climate projection by
Hansen et al. (1981)
with a 1-dimensional
climate model
Global climate projection by James Hansen (1981)
• Focus on global
mean temperature
• Focus on long-term
prediction

44. Global climate projections by IPCC AR5 (2013)
(p. 1037)

45. Global climate projections
1981
2013

46. Knowledge on large scales
• Predominant political interest in long-term prediction
• Focus on global coverage with limited spatial detail
• Limited reliability of regional scale predictions
Priority of time on large scales
• Lead parameter global mean temperature
• Limited reliability of precipitation data
• Neglection of human temporal and spatial scales

47. Content:
2. The „conquest of the third dimension“
1. The ‚classical‘ climatological research tradition
7. Conclusions
4. The physical understanding of the atmosphere
and the rise of climate modeling
5. The CO2-problem
6. Uncertainties and trust in global models
3. Investigation of climatic changes

48. (p. 965)
Climate projection by
Hansen et al. (1981)
with a 1-dimensional
climate model
Could Hansen’s projections be trusted?

49. Hansen et al. 1981: Climate Impact of
Increasing Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide
(Science, p. 957-966)
Discussed uncertainties
• vegetation albedo feedback: no reliable assessment (p. 958f).
• “lack of knowledge of ocean processes partly introduces
uncertainties about the time dependence of global warming” (p.
959f).
• “the impact of tropospheric aerosols on climate is uncertain in
sense and magnitude due to their range of composition” (p. 960).
• “the nature and causes of variability of cloud cover, optical
thickness, and altitude distribution are not well known” (p. 960).
• “Solar luminosity variations, which constitute another likely
mechanism, are unknown” (p. 962f).

50. Fitting
experiments
Hansen et al. 1981: Climate Impact of
Increasing Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide
(p. 963)

51. “The general agreement between modeled and observed
temperature trends strongly suggests that CO2
and
volcanic aerosols are responsible for much of the global
temperature variation in the past century. Key
consequences are: (i) empirical evidence that much of
the global climate variability on time scales of decades to
centuries is deterministic and (ii) improved confidence in
the ability of models to predict future CO2 climate effects.”
(p. 964; emphasis by Hansen et al.).
Hansen et al. 1981: Climate Impact of
Increasing Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide

52. Kellogg’s response to Lorenz
„It can be seen, then, that there is an entire hierarchy
of models of the climate system … It is reassuring to
see that, when we compare the results of experiments
with the same perturbations … but using different
models, the response is generally found to be either
about the same or differs by an amount that can be
rationalized in terms of recognized model differences
or assumptions“ (p. 9).
WMO Report 1977:

53. Kellogg’s response to Lorenz
„Of course, it is possible that all our models could be
utterly wrong in the same way, giving a false sense of
confidence, but it seems highly unlikely that we
would still be so completely ignorant about any
dominant set of processes … (Kellogg 1977, p. 9;
my emphasis).
WMO Report 1977:

54. • All scientists emphasized the great uncertainties in
climate modeling and simulation
• But uncertainties could not be quantified and did not
have a visible impact on model output.
• “Good” simulation results (good fits) had a stronger
confirmatory power (“statement”) than knowledge about
uncertainties (“qualification”)
• Model validation was not a major controversial issue in
the scientific discussion
The missed dimension
The missed dimension: in practice
uncertainties did not matter

55. 7. Conclusions
2. The „conquest of the third dimension“
3. Investigation of climatic changes
1. The ‚classical‘ climatological research tradition
4. The physical
understanding of the
atmosphere and the rise
of climate modeling
5. The CO2-problem
Expansion of
climatology
Globalizing reductionism:
•Loss of the human
•Loss of the local
Priority of global knowledge

56. • Climatic processes are large-scale and systemic
and demand global coverage
• Dehumanization and a loss of the human scale is
related to the marginalization of the regional and local
• Priority of physical research vs. marginalization of
geographical research (e. g. climatology, glaciology)
How and why did climate knowledge experienced
globalization, dehumanization and a loss of human
scales?

57. Thank you for your attention!