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Global Connectivity:
Toward a more global, interdependent, networked, and urban world
  Developing economies are increasingly benefiting from globalization; high level of FDI inflows is supporting growth




  Source: World Investment Report 2008                                                   Source: World Development Indicators, 2008



         ….however people from developing countries are migrating to high-income countries…and to big cities

                                                                  M i l l i on          Population grow th and urbanization (2007-2025)
                                                                   40
                                                                                 2007 2025
                                                                   35

                                                                   30                                                   2025

                                                                   25                                                                     2025
                                                                                                        2025
                                                                                                 2007            2007                                        2025
                                                                   20
                                                                                                                                                      2007
                                                                                                                                   2007
                                                                   15

                                                                   10

                                                                    5

                                                                    0
                                                                                 Tokyo, Japan   New York, USA   Mumbai, India   Dhaka, Bangladesh   Shanghai, China

  Source: International Organisation for Migration, 2008           Source: World Resources Institute, 2008




    Mobile phone subscribers in developing countries are increasing…and high income countries have the highest
                                           broadband subscription rates



                                                            Top 30 economies in terms
                                                            of broadband subscribers
                                                            per 100 population, 2007

                                                           Source: IT University of
                                                           Copenhagen, 2008




  Source: IT University of Copenhagen, 2008




                    Inspiration brought to you by New Business Development, Enzyme Business
Global Environment:
Limited natural resources is a challenge and an innovation opportunity
 Global freshwater supplies are limited…and more than a billion people still lack access to safe drinking water
                                                                                  Development in global access to drinking water




                                                                       Availability of oil is expected to decline as early as of 2012




                                                                                                            Source: Peak Oil Consulting, Oct. 2008

                                                                           Global energy consumption is anticipated to increase

                                                                                   World Marketed Energy Use by type (1990-2030)




                                                                                  Source: EIA, 2008

   World cereal production and utilization is rising…. but forests are shrinking in Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa
                                                                Development in forested area in different world regions




                                          Source: World Bank, 2007




                      Source: FAO, 2008


                  Inspiration brought to you by New Business Development, Enzyme Business
Global Population:
Growing emerging economies, aging developed markets
                                 The world’s population is growing; life expectancy is increasing worldwide.

                     World Population (in Billions): 1950-2050                           Number of persons age +65 over per hundred children under 15: 1950-2050




     Source: United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects, 2008
                                                                                                   Source: Population Division, United Nations, 2008



         The proportion of population 60 years or over will double by 2050….and many of these people will live alone.




Source: UN Population Division, 2007




                                                                                      Source: UN Population Division, 2007




        Increasing imbalances in the agricultural trade balance in many developing countries are causing food crises.




     Source: FAO, 2008                                                         Source: FAO, 2008



                         Inspiration brought to you by New Business Development, Enzyme Business
Global Economy:
Growing economies battle poverty, technology gap, unemployment

             Production is rising globally, and the Asian region is taking a larger stake in world output


              Annual growth in GDP per capita (%)
                                                                   Pct.
                                                                   8

                                                                   6

                                                                   4

                                                                   2

                                                                   0
 20 3
 20 4
 20 5
    06
 19 3
 19 4
 19 5
    86
 19 7
 19 8
 19 9
    90
 19 1
 19 2
 19 3
 19 4
 19 5
 19 6
 19 7
 19 8
 20 9
 20 0
 20 1
 20 2

    0
    0
    8
    8
    8

    8
    8
    8

    9
    9
    9
    9
    9
    9
    9
    9
    9
    0
    0
    0
    0




                                                                   ‐2
 19




 19




 19




                                                                  Year
   High Income Countries     Low Income Countries   Middle Income Countries

Source: World Resources Institute, 2009                                       Source: World Bank, 2008




           Poverty rates are declining in East Asia and Pacific; though many people still live in poverty.




  Source: World Bank and IMF, 2008




       Unemployment rates are highest in the Middle East and North Africa; and low and middle income
                      countries overall lack access to the use of many technologies.




                           Inspiration brought to you by New Business Development, Enzyme Business
Trend: Globality

                                                     What is it?


Globality is a concept deriving from the Boston Consulting Group and is
defined as the post-globalization step towards a world, where companies
from both developed and emerging markets are expanding to compete
beyond their home markets.

Global business all over the world and not only in western countries are
entering a new time-age with full global competition. Globality describes
business as “competing with everyone from everywhere for everything”.

According to The Boston Consulting Group western as well as emerging
market companies will spread to other markets than their home markets.
They will compete in areas beyond the areas of competition today.

                                                                               Source: The Boston Consulting Group



                                             Where could this lead?


Globality is both an opportunity and a threat to western firms. Companies
from emerging economies will compete with them in their home markets
as well as globally.

Furthermore the emerging markets with high middle class growth may
become one of the must crucial economic battle grounds of this decade.
This new segment will demand lover priced basic products, and emerging
market firms already have experience in supplying this.

Accenture predicts that within 10 years one-third of the Fortune 500
companies will consist of emerging market companies (see graph for
2007 where it stood at 62 companies).

                                                                                            Source: The Economist


                                                    Case stories

Mexican Cemex has emerged as the worlds biggest player within
building materials due to several big acquisitions world wide. The
Cemex corporation became no. 1. in 2007 with the acquisition of
Australia's Rinker Group putting it ahead of France's LaFarge.

Chinese Lenovo became the worlds third largest computer-maker
when it acquired IBM’s computer division $1.75 billion in 2005.
Today Lenovo is competing with Dell, HP, Acer and ASUS.

The Brazilian economy has accomplished to foster the largest bio-
fuel program in the world based on the production of bioethanol
from sugarcane. Brazil is a net exporter of bioethanol while the US
is a net importer. The US and other countries ad tariffs to prevent
cheap Brazilian ethanol from competing with home market ethanol.



                 Inspiration brought to you by New Business Development, Enzyme Business
Trend: Climate change initiatives

                                                     What is it?

The 2007 report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC),
states that climate change is unequivocal and likely due to human derived
greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.

Decision makers across the globe are taking measures to mitigate and adapt
to climate change.

President Obama is preparing a shift towards reducing GHG emissions.

EU has agreed on the 20:20:20 plan on reducing CO2 emissions 20% and
ensuring a 20% of renewable energies in EU energy consumption by 2020.

China’s government pushes for energy efficient production in “the 11th 5                                  IPCC

year plan” with targets on decreasing energy consumption and polluted
waste.                                                                       Source: www.ipcc.ch and www.europa.eu



                                             Where could this lead?

Companies may deal with climate change in different ways:

1) Focus on solutions for mitigation 2) Focus on solutions for
adaption 3) tackling the opportunities and risks it creates for the
business, and 4) addressing the public perception of their
footprints

Energy companies may embrace tighter GHG standards and
invest in mitigation technologies such as carbon capture storage.
Investments in renewable energy - wind, wave and solar - may
also increase. Finally companies may also invest in the adaption
technologies handling the anticipated consequences of climate
change e.g. flooding and extreme weather.
                                                                                              Source: www.unep.org


                                                    Case stories


Insurers of natural disasters such as Munich Re and Swiss Re are
developing new insurance based tools to cover the risk of
countries and regions which are likely to be most affected by
climate change. This includes increasingly volatile weather
conditions like heatwaves, drought, and storms.

Oil majors like BP and Shell is also acknowledging climate change
by reducing their GHG emissions, improving energy efficiency, and
investing in new technology (such as CCS).

As part of its overall activities on Sustainability, Wal-Mart is
implementing a Carbon Disclosure Project to measure the climate
change impact across the whole supply chain.



                 Inspiration brought to you by New Business Development, Enzyme Business
Trend: ‘Made in China’ to ‘Sold in China’

                                                            What is it?

The Chinese market accounts for just over 1.3 billion consumers (2008), and
Chinas urban population will expand from 572 million in 2005 to nearly one billion
people in 2025. The Chinese middle class is now seen as a main economic
driver with 650 million individuals in this group by 2020 from 79 million in 2004.

This change in demographics is causing China to change. Foreign companies
are now focusing on how to supply services and products that can cover the
increasing demand for energy, consumer goods, waste handling, insurance etc.

So where China a few years back was seen as a place for cost effective
production of goods, it is now increasingly a huge consumer market with
customers for both high end brands and mass market brands.

However China is also affected by the starting global recession, and the IMF now
forecast a GDP growth at 5-6% in 2009. The growth hit 13% in 2007, and China
is now bolstering the economy with a huge 586 billion dollar stimulus package.
                                                                                     Source: Population Resource Center and McKinsey



                                                   Where could this lead?

China is anticipated to become the worlds biggest market place for consumer
goods mainly based on the continuous growth of the Chinese middleclass.
Targeting the Chinese market is a huge business opportunity for companies
around the world.

However, China is also anticipated to foster strong companies which may
become global players in a world of ‘globality’ where ‘everyone will compete
everywhere for everything’, meaning that they will provide goods for their
domestic market AND for foreign markets.

It is not only consumer goods that are anticipated to be sold in China. Within a
few years China is anticipated to overhaul the USA as the worlds largest
consumer of energy.




                                                           Case stories

China’s biggest automaker, BYD, has introduced the F3DM that uses
BYD’s self-developed iron batteries, which can power the car to
travel 100 miles on a charge. Other automakers are stuck with a 25-
mile battery solution, but BYD is also the worlds biggest auto battery
manufacturer. The car is charged via a 220wolt plug-in.

Bestseller, a Danish fashion company, is one the biggest foreign
fashion retailers in China. They opened their first shop as pioneers
back in 1996, and today Bestseller has more than 2.000 stores.

The first Wal-mart super center opend in China, in Luohu
District,Shenzhen in 1996. Today Wal-Mart has 77 Supercenters in
China.




                    Inspiration brought to you by New Business Development, Enzyme Business
Trend: Base of the Pyramid

                                                     What is it?

The Base of the Pyramid (BOP) is characterized as being the
worlds fastest-growing new market.

The four billion people at the BoP living on less than $2 per day
constitute a combined market worth over $5 trillion. These people
can profitably be served as customers with many unmet needs
and an increasing buying power.

BOP is a new business model. The basic business model within
BOP is to develop low-cost strategies based on existing products
or services. However firms are increasingly developing innovative
business models that are growing new niche BoP markets.

Sub-Saharan Africa and other poor regions are to an increasing
extent seen as potential markets instead of a place for donorship.                    Source: C. K. Prahalad and UNDP



                                             Where could this lead?

Multinational companies could change the way they do business in
developing countries by interacting with poor people, serving them
as consumers, and potentially fight poverty and make money.

Combating poverty by doing business requires being open to new
kinds of partnerships. For example, non-governmental
organizations (NGOs) can successfully support business ventures
with their market knowledge and distribution capacities. Successful
BoP business models will often rely on collaboration with
governments, NGOs, local communities and other stakeholders.

The poor countries and regions of today are the emerging, high-
growth markets of tomorrow. Thus, the first-movers in BoP
markets today, may end up being the most trusted companies in
the emerging markets of the future.                                                       Source: C. K. Prahalad UNDP



                                                    Case stories

Vestergaard Frandsen has developed the LifeStraw®, a personal
portable water purifier for prevention of the many water-borne
diseases that kill millions of people in developing countries every
year. LifeStraw® has been referred to as 'One of the Ten Things
that will Change the Way We Live´ by Forbes Magazine.
Vestergaard Frandsen strongly believes that business is for profit,
but that profit must be for a purpose.

Carbon Manna is building a cell-phone-based carbon micro-credit
system based on communication by SMS. The company has
started out in Kenya where families are given the opportunity to
trade in their old cooking stove for a more efficient solar cooker.
More efficient cooking will help these families to make money by
releasing less CO2 and selling carbon credits to Carbon Manna,
which will bundle and sell them on a world carbon exchange.                Source: Vestergaard Frandsen and Marketwire


                 Inspiration brought to you by New Business Development, Enzyme Business
Trend: Growing middle class in Asia

                                                              What is it?

The global population rose by 1.2 pct. or total 70 million people in 2007.
From 2008 to 2050, global population is projected to climb 40 pct. from 6.6
to 9.3 million.

The World Bank estimates that the middle class in developing nations will
triple from 400 million(2007) to 1.2 billion by 2030. This forecast is based
on the conservative definition that this middle class is living on $13-50 a
day. With this definition the middle class will only make up 15 pct. In 2030.

Other organizations see the middle class in developing countries as those
living of $2-13 a day, because two dollars a day is considered the poverty
line. With this definition about 50 pct. of the world population is already in
or above middle class level.

India’s and China’s middle class will together reach the one-billion mark by
2020 based on the middle class definition from The World Bank ($13-50)
                                                                                             Source: Population Resource Center and The Economist



                                                     Where could this lead?

The middle class in Asia may potentially gain more purchasing power
and will crave access to more, better goods and services. As a result, the          Index Meat      consumption vs. population in developing
                                                                                 (1990=100)                     countries
middle class will increase demand for better housing, healthcare,                  220
education, food, electricity and infrastructure.                                   200
                                                                                   180
Increasing demand could potentially put a strain on availability of food
                                                                                   160
and many raw material dependent goods, which can drive prices up
worldwide.                                                                         140
                                                                                   120
The growing middle class may cause a heavy increase in the demand                  100
for fuel, causing urban pollution to rise. This could influence businesses           1990                                Year                              2020
                                                                                    Population - actual and projection     Meat consumption - actual and projection
and government to invest more in sustainable energy solutions, causing
India to leave its path of heavy oil-import dependency.

The global recession may bring emerging market middle-class growth to                                                                           Source: UN
halt for a while – but not for long.



                                                             Case stories


Indian Tata Motor has developed the Nano model to be sold
for only 2500 USD. This is by far the cheapest car ever made,
targeted towards India’s fast growing middle class.


Tata Motor is expecting that several hundred thousand Indians
will drive a Nano in the near future. At the same time
environmentalists are worried about a Nano-invasion and
growing CO2 emissions. Additionally many cities already have
harmful pollution levels.




                                                                                                      Source: www.tatanano.com, www.ifpri.org and UN


                    Inspiration brought to you by New Business Development, Enzyme Business
Trend: Sustainability and trading regimes

                                                       What is it?

The carbon market is an attempt to adopt a market-based approach by
implementing a carbon trading regime driving carbon-reducing industrial behavior.
In 2008 ~4,9bn tons of CO2 equivalent was traded and the market turnover was
~92bnEURO.

The Kyoto protocol was agreed upon in 1997 and outlined the system for the
‘Flexible mechanisms’ including the clean development mechanism and Joint
implementation. These allow the Kyoto countries to invest in CO2 reducing
projects in developing countries to offset their CO2 emissions.

Under the Kyoto protocol the EU launched the worlds first and biggest carbon
trading system (ETS) in January 2005. It includes a cap-n-trade system where
energy heavy industry in Europe has caps on the level of CO2 emissions allowed.
Besides the EU ETS, the Australian New South Wales Abatement Certificates
and the voluntary Chicago Climate Exchanges constitutes the biggest markets.
                                                                                                       Source: www.europa.eu



                                              Where could this lead?

The Obama administration may introduce a federal cap-n-trade system, which
may potentially grow bigger than the EU ETS. Obama wants to invest $15
bn/year to develop new energy technologies based on government revenue from
carbon allowances, that companies would buy would fund the cap and trade
system.

The Kyoto protocol may be replaced by a more ambitious plan when it expires in
2012. It is currently discussed that the new protocol may include new sectors
such as shipping and aviation, which were left outside Kyoto.

The industries currently capped under e.g. the EU ETS may experience even
lower caps to further reduce carbon emissions.

Finally, the post-Kyoto trading regime may be extended to countries outside the
current treaty (e.g. USA).

                                                      Case stories

The UN issued 3.9 million carbon credits February 2009, taking the total issued to 261.7 million.

Among the projects were destruction of the GHG HFC 23 in India receiving ~1.2M Certified Emission Reductions
(CERs). Navin Fluorine International’s plant is expected to save 2.8M tons CO2e/year. Investors are Natixis, Sumitomo
Corp., BHP Billiton Marketing, Mercuria Trading, Ineos Fluor and E.ON.

Also a large wind farm in India received the second biggest volume of credits, 860,000 CERs. Tamil Nadu Spinning Mills
Association’s portfolio of wind farms intends to save the equivalent of 685,000 tonnes CO2e/year. The Swiss and
Swedish branches of Carbon Asset Management invested in the project.

Meanwhile, a project that destroys the greenhouse gas nitrous oxide in Brazil
was issued around 687,000 credits. Rhodia Energy Brazil owns the plant that it
reckons will save 5.9M tonnes CO2e/year. Various companies from across the
globe where named investors.



                  Inspiration brought to you by New Business Development, Enzyme Business
Trend: Sustainable cities

                                                        What is it?

Most of the worlds energy is used in cities where demand for fossil fuels for transportation,
electricity and heating is high.

With the growing population in particularly China it is anticipated that the country will need to
build 221 cities with more than one million residents by 2025 (against 35 in Europe today).

This urbanization and the demand for higher standards of living, push us to rethink how
cities can recycle their waste and water, and use energy and resources efficiently. Climate
change concerns also call for new ways to power these cities and handle the vital flows in
them.

There are currently several ambitious green field sustainable city projects planned or in the
making among others in the USA, Abu Dhabi and China .
                                                                               Source: sustainablecities.dk and McKinsey Global Institute



                                               Where could this lead?

Governments may start collaborating with business’ and NGO’s on
how to design a way to secure people’s need in a sustainable manner.
The goals for new eco-cities go towards a near zero emission
strategy, why it is not possible to retrofit 100% sustainable solutions to
current cities. The new mega cities may therefore have to be green
field setups.

Rethinking green field cities opens up for new technologies in the area
of e.g. waste and water treatment, sustainable and energy efficient
building materials, energy efficiency and sustainable infrastructure.
The potential outcome may be changed city flow systems toward
100% water recycling, zero energy houses, clean energy production,
etc.                                                                         The sustainable city of Treasure Island, San Francisco, USA

                                                                                                                  Source: Scientific American



                                                       Case stories

The sustainable city of Masdar in Abu Dhabi is expected to be
completed in 2016. By then 30,000 wealthy emirates will live in this
near zero carbon emissions sustainable city. The population will be
transported by electric vehicles on fixed paths, solar power plants will
provide electricity, and the city will be desalinate ocean water.

Tianjin Eco-City is a new city being built 40 km from the existing city of
Tianjin, and the city focus is on wind and solar energy together with
water recycling. The construction started in late 2008, and the setup is
a joint-venture between China and Singapore. The Singapore
consortium is led by Keppel Corporation.

The Tianjin Eco-City has not adopted a “Zero CO2 emissions” strategy,
but the project have great prospects because the Chinese government           Solar, wind and desalination are key initiatives in the UAE
see it as a model for the many new cities it has to built.                     Source: masdaruae.com and http://www.tianjinecocity.gov.sg/


                  Inspiration brought to you by New Business Development, Enzyme Business
Trend: Social Innovation

                                                        What is it?

Social innovation refers to new strategies, concepts, ideas and
business models that addresses the social sphere of a company,
its products, its customers and other stakeholders. It takes it offset
in the belief that business is not only about markets and
technology development, but also has a social dimension.

The term has developed three key overlapping meanings over the
years. It can be used to refer to social processes of innovation,
such as open- and employee-driven innovation, innovation that
serves a social need in society, and thirdly societal impact on
business innovation.

The concept of social innovation must always relate to interaction
with the society including perception, beliefs, policies and
regulation around a business.


                                               Where could this lead?

Companies success may potentially depend on their
proactive focus on social innovation and not
exclusively  on  product-   and     technological
innovation.

The future of innovation may well lie within open
innovation, public affairs, interaction with society,
perception and values.

Companies could also successfully co-operate with
NGO’s to reach the market opportunities in social
innovation. The NGO’s possess knowledge, local
infrastructure and relationships, which all can serve
as key value drivers for corporations working with
social innovation.                                                                   Source: Novozymes Blue Marble


                                                      Case stories

One of the biggest challenges of our time is the need for renewable
and sustainable energy. Biofuels constitute a small but increasingly
growing part of the global energy supply, and by 2010 Novozymes
will be able to supply enzymes to produce second-generation bio-
ethanol that converts waste and agricultural residues into energy.
This will be a radical development in the search for new renewable
energy sources.

Novozymes has developed a cold water detergent enzyme that can
help people lower their electricity bill. The company Danlind is
using Novozymes’ technology in their Care cold water detergent,
which can reduce the washing temperature from 60 to 30 degrees
or even lower it to 20. This detergent product helps reducing CO2
emissions.
                                                                                               Source: Novozymes


                  Inspiration brought to you by New Business Development, Enzyme Business
Trend: Do It Yourself Biology

                                                        What is it?
Do It Yourself Biology (DIY Bio) is seen as a democratization of
science where hobbyists are doing biological work outside of
traditional professional settings.
In the 90s open source within personal computers lead to a fast
tracked development of the technology. The DIY Bio is seen as the
same kind of open source, but in an other technology field.

Biological advances are most commonly done by business and
academia which are focused on patents that protect their findings. DIY
Bio is a crowd-sourced way for hobbyists to help measure,
characterize and develop new biotechnological solutions.

The philosophy is that DIY-biology can create added value to scientific
research and development. It is meant to inspire citizen scientists,
amateur biologists, and bioengineers to organize and collaborate on
                                                                               Source: www.mit.edu and www.diybio.org
biological projects outside of traditional professional settings.

                                               Where could this lead?

DIY Bio may lead to the development of new vaccines, new ways of
treating disease, and efficient biofuels. Governments and research
institutes may embrace this development by creating publicly
accessible laboratories for individuals and amateurs outside the
professional world.

However many experts are warning that a DIY bio movement may
potentially cause more harm than good. The danger lies in the fact
that genes, organisms, and bacteria's in the hands amateurs could
escape and cause outbreaks of deadly diseases or unpredictable
environmental damage. Governments may support DIY bio by
ensuring some kind of oversight and monitoring.


                                                                                        Source: scienceblogs.com, etc.



                                                       Case stories

In the US DIY bio inspired scientist Meredith Patterson is heading an
open-source group working on creating a simple ingredient that can
make milk products turn green, if it comes in touch with harmful
melamine. Melamine-tainted milk is blamed for the deaths of six
children in China and making another 290,000 people sick, and the
goal is to come up with a more cost-efficient solution than the ones
used in commercial testing today.

The UK government are not taxing biofuel productions up to 2,500
liters, which have created an increasing market for DIY initiatives. This
has created a market for turning vegetable cooking oils into biodiesel
and it both makes economic and environmental sense. In the UK a
group of people is investing in a micro-biofuel production setup, and
additionally the diesel engine need a small configuration of £500-
£1000. The cost is offset in a few months.                                      Source: openwetware.org and bbc.co.uk


                   Inspiration brought to you by New Business Development, Enzyme Business
Trend: Green retailing

                                                       What is it?

Retailers are now responding to the increasingly active green consumer
segment by changing towards more sustainability. The motivation for
becoming a green retailer varies, from political and economic to social and
strategic reasons, but in general green retailers wants to be recognized as a
company caring about our planets future.

The retail industry is also starting to acknowledge that it can use green
marketing to boost sales, and together with their suppliers they seek to lower
costs by using recycled materials in packaging, less water in production, less
energy, and to recycle waste.

The EU Packaging Directive effectively promotes energy recovery, re-use and
recycling of packaging. Waste recycling also helps retailers lower their costs.
According to the Carbon Trust, UK retailing accounts for only 7% of UK CO2
emissions, but the industry should easily be able to cut emissions by 10%.          Source: communications.lab and retailresearch.org



                                              Where could this lead?

The retail industry may potentially increase pressure on suppliers to meet the
green standards within energy, materials, ingredients and water use. At the
same time retailers could experience increasing pressure from the green
consumer segment.

The retail industry may chose to adopt green Lean Thinking as an approach to
achieve sustainability by reducing waste, consumption and costs.

Potentially, consumers could get insight into product lifecycles including green
logistics, less packaging, better waste and recycling handling, less refrigerated
food products, etc. Additionally consumer push could drive towards organic or
low-carbon friendly products.

New regulation may push the industry to recycle materials and waste water at
a much higher level than previously seen.                                                      Source: Green Retail 2009 Conference



                                                     Case stories

Marks & Spencer launched a five-year sustainability plan in 2007. M&S is
using 200 million pounds until 2012 to combat climate change, reduce waste,
safeguard natural resources and trade ethically. The aim and overall goal is
also to reduce costs and increase profits.

Ikea is building sustainable and eco-efficient superstores in Australia using the
latest technologies available. The stores’ air-conditioning only runs during the
night when electricity is cheap, during the day it then pumps the cooled water
through panels. The toilet water comes from rainwater that is heated using
solar panels. Ikea is experiencing 20 pct. lower costs in energy consumption
compared to conventional stores.

Whole Foods Market is offsetting 100% of its energy use by buying renewable-
energy credits, converting its truck fleet to biofuel, composts its food waste,
and maintains recycling programs for old consumer electronic products.               Source: Marks & Spencer Plan A and ceres.org


                  Inspiration brought to you by New Business Development, Enzyme Business
Trend: Life on the Go

                                                       What is it?

‘Life on the Go’ is the trend of the increasing number of people
consuming food, drinks, snacks in the train, in the car, on the street,
etc.

In addition the number of people living alone is rising. It is
categorized as ‘the singles economy’ and addressed as a specific
consumer segment. This group demands smaller size portions and
easy to make food.

Based on the two movements there is an increasing demand for
goods and services that can enhance our everyday life
effectiveness, e.g. prepared food and drinks in small pack sizes and
for ‘on the go’ consumption.

                                                                                      Source: Basic American Foods



                                               Where could this lead?

In the future we may see increased demand for healthy food, drinks
and snack products for consumption on the go and/or in smaller and
often prepared portions. This may put increased focus on food
safety and shelf-life of these products.

In a carbon constrained world this development may also increase
the demand for sustainable packaging and for sensible ways of
handling the increased waste from packaged food.

Moreover there may be increased focus on the demand for
functional packaging to deal with packaging for fresh or prepared
food and drinks.

This trend may open business opportunities in functional packaging,
sustainable packaging and waste handling of packaging materials.


                                                      Case stories


Australian Barokes ‘Wine in a can’ is a world-
patent product appealing to the convenience
society. This wine in a can is easy to consume and
the can is designed to prolong the wine taste
known from conventional wine bottles.

UK founded Pret a Manger started in 1986 with a
concept of fresh food and drinks using natural,
preservative-free ingredients for the consumer on
the go. All meals and snacks are fresh and packed
– ready to go. Today there 190 Pret a Manger
shops mainly in the UK.




                  Inspiration brought to you by New Business Development, Enzyme Business
Trend: Value from waste

                                                        What is it?

A number of raw materials, (water, oil, metals, crops, etc.) are
becoming more scarce, as a result of long-run increased demand
and decreased accessibility. The long-run increasing demand is
driven largely by growing economies.

In the future many raw materials will join the list of inputs with
diminishing availability, and several of these raw materials have
huge cost to the environment. Other raw materials such as rubber
are to be recycled.

Already used raw materials are often treated simply as waste,
which is costly for the environment. Yet the value can be
recaptured to generate new value, while sustaining our planet. Not        Steel scrap ready for recycling
reusing raw materials and garbage is a waste of resources, and
intelligent waste management makes lowers GHG emissions.


                                               Where could this lead?

Scarcity could first of all lead to increasing prices of raw materials
in the long-run. Higher raw material prices may demand more
efficient use of raw materials in manufacturing, and in product life
cycles. In addition waste management firms will be motivated to
increase there sorting and recycling within all waste categories.

Manufacturers may look to minimize raw material usage through
material substitution, and consumers could demand retailers to
press their suppliers to recycle and re-use all possible materials.

Companies that can supply services and products for lowering the
expenses for sorting waste for recycling, may potentially meet
huge business opportunities in the future.
                                                                                           Source: www.recyclemach.com



                                                      Case stories

Norcal Waste Systems effectively handles most of San Francisco
city’s household garbage by constantly striving to recycle more by
improving processes. At its best, Norcal recycles almost 70 pct. of
municipal garbage in San Francisco, which is one of the highest
rates in the world.

The goal is to achieve ‘zero waste’, but currently metals are the
only materials that are constantly profitable to sort and categorize
for reselling and recycling. Cardbord is often also profitable, but
other non-profitable materials include plastic and paper.

The economic shortfall is covered by Norcal’s customers, who pay
$25 a month for waste disposal service. To achieve ‘zero’ waste’
they must pay more to offset the costs of more manual sorting.                                Source: The Economist




                  Inspiration brought to you by New Business Development, Enzyme Business
Trend: Enzymes are sustainable chemicals!

                                                       What is it?
The production of chemicals has significantly increased since the
1930’s, and today chemicals are an integrated part of most                                          Chemicals
consumer goods e.g. in foods, textiles, toys, and cars.

Regulation on chemicals has in most cases been implemented on
a reactive basis several years after a specific problem has been
seen using the chemical. It now covers many dimensions from the
safety of the individual chemicals and their mixtures to the uses
and processes they are implemented in.

In view of the slow implementation of new regulation, new (semi)
voluntary initiatives are appearing e.g. various environmental
labels (EU flower, SWAN label) and individual companies requiring
specific documentation of the level of dangerous chemicals in the
products received from their suppliers.
                                                                         1930                                            2000


                                               Where could this lead?
While the increasing regulatory demands might be seen as negatively by some
parts of industry, other more innovative businesses may see this an opportunity        SUSTAINABILITY DIMENSIONS
for finding new sustainable ways of obtaining the same product functionalities,
substituting chemicals. These frontrunners may also take the time to produce the
extensive documentation required for demonstrating that the products are
sustainable.
                                                                                          ECONOMY               SOCIAL
Most general regulation categorizes enzymes as chemicals, so Novozymes too is
currently dealing with regulatory demands in e.g. the choices of stabilizers for the
finished enzyme granulates/liquid formulations.
However, alongside our existing sustainability story line around e.g. CO2, with
the increasing regulatory legislation, NZ might have the opportunity of promoting                ENVIRONMENT
other sustainable elements of enzymes e.g. degradability in the environment, and
if compared to the more harsh chemical being regulated may also have a lighter
toxicity profile towards humans.


                                                      Case stories

In general the retailers are placed in an optimum spot in the value chain
for the collection of input from the consumers on needs and new trends.
                                                                                            Suppliers                      Consumers
Marks & Spencer has developed an entire range of household products
                                                                                                             Retailers
without synthetic chemicals. Grime and dirt are now removed with
natural cleaning agents.

Wal-Mart looks at every facet of their business—from the products they
offer to the energy they use—through the lens of sustainability. Wal-
Mart’s environmental goals are to be supplied 100 percent by renewable
energy; to create zero waste; and to sell products that sustain our
natural resources and the environment.

                                                                                                        Source: Marks & Spencer and
                                                                                                         www.onderzoekinformatie.nl


                  Inspiration brought to you by New Business Development, Enzyme Business

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Novozymes Trend Posters

  • 1. Global Connectivity: Toward a more global, interdependent, networked, and urban world Developing economies are increasingly benefiting from globalization; high level of FDI inflows is supporting growth Source: World Investment Report 2008 Source: World Development Indicators, 2008 ….however people from developing countries are migrating to high-income countries…and to big cities M i l l i on Population grow th and urbanization (2007-2025) 40 2007 2025 35 30 2025 25 2025 2025 2007 2007 2025 20 2007 2007 15 10 5 0 Tokyo, Japan New York, USA Mumbai, India Dhaka, Bangladesh Shanghai, China Source: International Organisation for Migration, 2008 Source: World Resources Institute, 2008 Mobile phone subscribers in developing countries are increasing…and high income countries have the highest broadband subscription rates Top 30 economies in terms of broadband subscribers per 100 population, 2007 Source: IT University of Copenhagen, 2008 Source: IT University of Copenhagen, 2008 Inspiration brought to you by New Business Development, Enzyme Business
  • 2. Global Environment: Limited natural resources is a challenge and an innovation opportunity Global freshwater supplies are limited…and more than a billion people still lack access to safe drinking water Development in global access to drinking water Availability of oil is expected to decline as early as of 2012 Source: Peak Oil Consulting, Oct. 2008 Global energy consumption is anticipated to increase World Marketed Energy Use by type (1990-2030) Source: EIA, 2008 World cereal production and utilization is rising…. but forests are shrinking in Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa Development in forested area in different world regions Source: World Bank, 2007 Source: FAO, 2008 Inspiration brought to you by New Business Development, Enzyme Business
  • 3. Global Population: Growing emerging economies, aging developed markets The world’s population is growing; life expectancy is increasing worldwide. World Population (in Billions): 1950-2050 Number of persons age +65 over per hundred children under 15: 1950-2050 Source: United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects, 2008 Source: Population Division, United Nations, 2008 The proportion of population 60 years or over will double by 2050….and many of these people will live alone. Source: UN Population Division, 2007 Source: UN Population Division, 2007 Increasing imbalances in the agricultural trade balance in many developing countries are causing food crises. Source: FAO, 2008 Source: FAO, 2008 Inspiration brought to you by New Business Development, Enzyme Business
  • 4. Global Economy: Growing economies battle poverty, technology gap, unemployment Production is rising globally, and the Asian region is taking a larger stake in world output Annual growth in GDP per capita (%) Pct. 8 6 4 2 0 20 3 20 4 20 5 06 19 3 19 4 19 5 86 19 7 19 8 19 9 90 19 1 19 2 19 3 19 4 19 5 19 6 19 7 19 8 20 9 20 0 20 1 20 2 0 0 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 ‐2 19 19 19 Year High Income Countries Low Income Countries Middle Income Countries Source: World Resources Institute, 2009 Source: World Bank, 2008 Poverty rates are declining in East Asia and Pacific; though many people still live in poverty. Source: World Bank and IMF, 2008 Unemployment rates are highest in the Middle East and North Africa; and low and middle income countries overall lack access to the use of many technologies. Inspiration brought to you by New Business Development, Enzyme Business
  • 5. Trend: Globality What is it? Globality is a concept deriving from the Boston Consulting Group and is defined as the post-globalization step towards a world, where companies from both developed and emerging markets are expanding to compete beyond their home markets. Global business all over the world and not only in western countries are entering a new time-age with full global competition. Globality describes business as “competing with everyone from everywhere for everything”. According to The Boston Consulting Group western as well as emerging market companies will spread to other markets than their home markets. They will compete in areas beyond the areas of competition today. Source: The Boston Consulting Group Where could this lead? Globality is both an opportunity and a threat to western firms. Companies from emerging economies will compete with them in their home markets as well as globally. Furthermore the emerging markets with high middle class growth may become one of the must crucial economic battle grounds of this decade. This new segment will demand lover priced basic products, and emerging market firms already have experience in supplying this. Accenture predicts that within 10 years one-third of the Fortune 500 companies will consist of emerging market companies (see graph for 2007 where it stood at 62 companies). Source: The Economist Case stories Mexican Cemex has emerged as the worlds biggest player within building materials due to several big acquisitions world wide. The Cemex corporation became no. 1. in 2007 with the acquisition of Australia's Rinker Group putting it ahead of France's LaFarge. Chinese Lenovo became the worlds third largest computer-maker when it acquired IBM’s computer division $1.75 billion in 2005. Today Lenovo is competing with Dell, HP, Acer and ASUS. The Brazilian economy has accomplished to foster the largest bio- fuel program in the world based on the production of bioethanol from sugarcane. Brazil is a net exporter of bioethanol while the US is a net importer. The US and other countries ad tariffs to prevent cheap Brazilian ethanol from competing with home market ethanol. Inspiration brought to you by New Business Development, Enzyme Business
  • 6. Trend: Climate change initiatives What is it? The 2007 report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), states that climate change is unequivocal and likely due to human derived greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Decision makers across the globe are taking measures to mitigate and adapt to climate change. President Obama is preparing a shift towards reducing GHG emissions. EU has agreed on the 20:20:20 plan on reducing CO2 emissions 20% and ensuring a 20% of renewable energies in EU energy consumption by 2020. China’s government pushes for energy efficient production in “the 11th 5 IPCC year plan” with targets on decreasing energy consumption and polluted waste. Source: www.ipcc.ch and www.europa.eu Where could this lead? Companies may deal with climate change in different ways: 1) Focus on solutions for mitigation 2) Focus on solutions for adaption 3) tackling the opportunities and risks it creates for the business, and 4) addressing the public perception of their footprints Energy companies may embrace tighter GHG standards and invest in mitigation technologies such as carbon capture storage. Investments in renewable energy - wind, wave and solar - may also increase. Finally companies may also invest in the adaption technologies handling the anticipated consequences of climate change e.g. flooding and extreme weather. Source: www.unep.org Case stories Insurers of natural disasters such as Munich Re and Swiss Re are developing new insurance based tools to cover the risk of countries and regions which are likely to be most affected by climate change. This includes increasingly volatile weather conditions like heatwaves, drought, and storms. Oil majors like BP and Shell is also acknowledging climate change by reducing their GHG emissions, improving energy efficiency, and investing in new technology (such as CCS). As part of its overall activities on Sustainability, Wal-Mart is implementing a Carbon Disclosure Project to measure the climate change impact across the whole supply chain. Inspiration brought to you by New Business Development, Enzyme Business
  • 7. Trend: ‘Made in China’ to ‘Sold in China’ What is it? The Chinese market accounts for just over 1.3 billion consumers (2008), and Chinas urban population will expand from 572 million in 2005 to nearly one billion people in 2025. The Chinese middle class is now seen as a main economic driver with 650 million individuals in this group by 2020 from 79 million in 2004. This change in demographics is causing China to change. Foreign companies are now focusing on how to supply services and products that can cover the increasing demand for energy, consumer goods, waste handling, insurance etc. So where China a few years back was seen as a place for cost effective production of goods, it is now increasingly a huge consumer market with customers for both high end brands and mass market brands. However China is also affected by the starting global recession, and the IMF now forecast a GDP growth at 5-6% in 2009. The growth hit 13% in 2007, and China is now bolstering the economy with a huge 586 billion dollar stimulus package. Source: Population Resource Center and McKinsey Where could this lead? China is anticipated to become the worlds biggest market place for consumer goods mainly based on the continuous growth of the Chinese middleclass. Targeting the Chinese market is a huge business opportunity for companies around the world. However, China is also anticipated to foster strong companies which may become global players in a world of ‘globality’ where ‘everyone will compete everywhere for everything’, meaning that they will provide goods for their domestic market AND for foreign markets. It is not only consumer goods that are anticipated to be sold in China. Within a few years China is anticipated to overhaul the USA as the worlds largest consumer of energy. Case stories China’s biggest automaker, BYD, has introduced the F3DM that uses BYD’s self-developed iron batteries, which can power the car to travel 100 miles on a charge. Other automakers are stuck with a 25- mile battery solution, but BYD is also the worlds biggest auto battery manufacturer. The car is charged via a 220wolt plug-in. Bestseller, a Danish fashion company, is one the biggest foreign fashion retailers in China. They opened their first shop as pioneers back in 1996, and today Bestseller has more than 2.000 stores. The first Wal-mart super center opend in China, in Luohu District,Shenzhen in 1996. Today Wal-Mart has 77 Supercenters in China. Inspiration brought to you by New Business Development, Enzyme Business
  • 8. Trend: Base of the Pyramid What is it? The Base of the Pyramid (BOP) is characterized as being the worlds fastest-growing new market. The four billion people at the BoP living on less than $2 per day constitute a combined market worth over $5 trillion. These people can profitably be served as customers with many unmet needs and an increasing buying power. BOP is a new business model. The basic business model within BOP is to develop low-cost strategies based on existing products or services. However firms are increasingly developing innovative business models that are growing new niche BoP markets. Sub-Saharan Africa and other poor regions are to an increasing extent seen as potential markets instead of a place for donorship. Source: C. K. Prahalad and UNDP Where could this lead? Multinational companies could change the way they do business in developing countries by interacting with poor people, serving them as consumers, and potentially fight poverty and make money. Combating poverty by doing business requires being open to new kinds of partnerships. For example, non-governmental organizations (NGOs) can successfully support business ventures with their market knowledge and distribution capacities. Successful BoP business models will often rely on collaboration with governments, NGOs, local communities and other stakeholders. The poor countries and regions of today are the emerging, high- growth markets of tomorrow. Thus, the first-movers in BoP markets today, may end up being the most trusted companies in the emerging markets of the future. Source: C. K. Prahalad UNDP Case stories Vestergaard Frandsen has developed the LifeStraw®, a personal portable water purifier for prevention of the many water-borne diseases that kill millions of people in developing countries every year. LifeStraw® has been referred to as 'One of the Ten Things that will Change the Way We Live´ by Forbes Magazine. Vestergaard Frandsen strongly believes that business is for profit, but that profit must be for a purpose. Carbon Manna is building a cell-phone-based carbon micro-credit system based on communication by SMS. The company has started out in Kenya where families are given the opportunity to trade in their old cooking stove for a more efficient solar cooker. More efficient cooking will help these families to make money by releasing less CO2 and selling carbon credits to Carbon Manna, which will bundle and sell them on a world carbon exchange. Source: Vestergaard Frandsen and Marketwire Inspiration brought to you by New Business Development, Enzyme Business
  • 9. Trend: Growing middle class in Asia What is it? The global population rose by 1.2 pct. or total 70 million people in 2007. From 2008 to 2050, global population is projected to climb 40 pct. from 6.6 to 9.3 million. The World Bank estimates that the middle class in developing nations will triple from 400 million(2007) to 1.2 billion by 2030. This forecast is based on the conservative definition that this middle class is living on $13-50 a day. With this definition the middle class will only make up 15 pct. In 2030. Other organizations see the middle class in developing countries as those living of $2-13 a day, because two dollars a day is considered the poverty line. With this definition about 50 pct. of the world population is already in or above middle class level. India’s and China’s middle class will together reach the one-billion mark by 2020 based on the middle class definition from The World Bank ($13-50) Source: Population Resource Center and The Economist Where could this lead? The middle class in Asia may potentially gain more purchasing power and will crave access to more, better goods and services. As a result, the Index Meat consumption vs. population in developing (1990=100) countries middle class will increase demand for better housing, healthcare, 220 education, food, electricity and infrastructure. 200 180 Increasing demand could potentially put a strain on availability of food 160 and many raw material dependent goods, which can drive prices up worldwide. 140 120 The growing middle class may cause a heavy increase in the demand 100 for fuel, causing urban pollution to rise. This could influence businesses 1990 Year 2020 Population - actual and projection Meat consumption - actual and projection and government to invest more in sustainable energy solutions, causing India to leave its path of heavy oil-import dependency. The global recession may bring emerging market middle-class growth to Source: UN halt for a while – but not for long. Case stories Indian Tata Motor has developed the Nano model to be sold for only 2500 USD. This is by far the cheapest car ever made, targeted towards India’s fast growing middle class. Tata Motor is expecting that several hundred thousand Indians will drive a Nano in the near future. At the same time environmentalists are worried about a Nano-invasion and growing CO2 emissions. Additionally many cities already have harmful pollution levels. Source: www.tatanano.com, www.ifpri.org and UN Inspiration brought to you by New Business Development, Enzyme Business
  • 10. Trend: Sustainability and trading regimes What is it? The carbon market is an attempt to adopt a market-based approach by implementing a carbon trading regime driving carbon-reducing industrial behavior. In 2008 ~4,9bn tons of CO2 equivalent was traded and the market turnover was ~92bnEURO. The Kyoto protocol was agreed upon in 1997 and outlined the system for the ‘Flexible mechanisms’ including the clean development mechanism and Joint implementation. These allow the Kyoto countries to invest in CO2 reducing projects in developing countries to offset their CO2 emissions. Under the Kyoto protocol the EU launched the worlds first and biggest carbon trading system (ETS) in January 2005. It includes a cap-n-trade system where energy heavy industry in Europe has caps on the level of CO2 emissions allowed. Besides the EU ETS, the Australian New South Wales Abatement Certificates and the voluntary Chicago Climate Exchanges constitutes the biggest markets. Source: www.europa.eu Where could this lead? The Obama administration may introduce a federal cap-n-trade system, which may potentially grow bigger than the EU ETS. Obama wants to invest $15 bn/year to develop new energy technologies based on government revenue from carbon allowances, that companies would buy would fund the cap and trade system. The Kyoto protocol may be replaced by a more ambitious plan when it expires in 2012. It is currently discussed that the new protocol may include new sectors such as shipping and aviation, which were left outside Kyoto. The industries currently capped under e.g. the EU ETS may experience even lower caps to further reduce carbon emissions. Finally, the post-Kyoto trading regime may be extended to countries outside the current treaty (e.g. USA). Case stories The UN issued 3.9 million carbon credits February 2009, taking the total issued to 261.7 million. Among the projects were destruction of the GHG HFC 23 in India receiving ~1.2M Certified Emission Reductions (CERs). Navin Fluorine International’s plant is expected to save 2.8M tons CO2e/year. Investors are Natixis, Sumitomo Corp., BHP Billiton Marketing, Mercuria Trading, Ineos Fluor and E.ON. Also a large wind farm in India received the second biggest volume of credits, 860,000 CERs. Tamil Nadu Spinning Mills Association’s portfolio of wind farms intends to save the equivalent of 685,000 tonnes CO2e/year. The Swiss and Swedish branches of Carbon Asset Management invested in the project. Meanwhile, a project that destroys the greenhouse gas nitrous oxide in Brazil was issued around 687,000 credits. Rhodia Energy Brazil owns the plant that it reckons will save 5.9M tonnes CO2e/year. Various companies from across the globe where named investors. Inspiration brought to you by New Business Development, Enzyme Business
  • 11. Trend: Sustainable cities What is it? Most of the worlds energy is used in cities where demand for fossil fuels for transportation, electricity and heating is high. With the growing population in particularly China it is anticipated that the country will need to build 221 cities with more than one million residents by 2025 (against 35 in Europe today). This urbanization and the demand for higher standards of living, push us to rethink how cities can recycle their waste and water, and use energy and resources efficiently. Climate change concerns also call for new ways to power these cities and handle the vital flows in them. There are currently several ambitious green field sustainable city projects planned or in the making among others in the USA, Abu Dhabi and China . Source: sustainablecities.dk and McKinsey Global Institute Where could this lead? Governments may start collaborating with business’ and NGO’s on how to design a way to secure people’s need in a sustainable manner. The goals for new eco-cities go towards a near zero emission strategy, why it is not possible to retrofit 100% sustainable solutions to current cities. The new mega cities may therefore have to be green field setups. Rethinking green field cities opens up for new technologies in the area of e.g. waste and water treatment, sustainable and energy efficient building materials, energy efficiency and sustainable infrastructure. The potential outcome may be changed city flow systems toward 100% water recycling, zero energy houses, clean energy production, etc. The sustainable city of Treasure Island, San Francisco, USA Source: Scientific American Case stories The sustainable city of Masdar in Abu Dhabi is expected to be completed in 2016. By then 30,000 wealthy emirates will live in this near zero carbon emissions sustainable city. The population will be transported by electric vehicles on fixed paths, solar power plants will provide electricity, and the city will be desalinate ocean water. Tianjin Eco-City is a new city being built 40 km from the existing city of Tianjin, and the city focus is on wind and solar energy together with water recycling. The construction started in late 2008, and the setup is a joint-venture between China and Singapore. The Singapore consortium is led by Keppel Corporation. The Tianjin Eco-City has not adopted a “Zero CO2 emissions” strategy, but the project have great prospects because the Chinese government Solar, wind and desalination are key initiatives in the UAE see it as a model for the many new cities it has to built. Source: masdaruae.com and http://www.tianjinecocity.gov.sg/ Inspiration brought to you by New Business Development, Enzyme Business
  • 12. Trend: Social Innovation What is it? Social innovation refers to new strategies, concepts, ideas and business models that addresses the social sphere of a company, its products, its customers and other stakeholders. It takes it offset in the belief that business is not only about markets and technology development, but also has a social dimension. The term has developed three key overlapping meanings over the years. It can be used to refer to social processes of innovation, such as open- and employee-driven innovation, innovation that serves a social need in society, and thirdly societal impact on business innovation. The concept of social innovation must always relate to interaction with the society including perception, beliefs, policies and regulation around a business. Where could this lead? Companies success may potentially depend on their proactive focus on social innovation and not exclusively on product- and technological innovation. The future of innovation may well lie within open innovation, public affairs, interaction with society, perception and values. Companies could also successfully co-operate with NGO’s to reach the market opportunities in social innovation. The NGO’s possess knowledge, local infrastructure and relationships, which all can serve as key value drivers for corporations working with social innovation. Source: Novozymes Blue Marble Case stories One of the biggest challenges of our time is the need for renewable and sustainable energy. Biofuels constitute a small but increasingly growing part of the global energy supply, and by 2010 Novozymes will be able to supply enzymes to produce second-generation bio- ethanol that converts waste and agricultural residues into energy. This will be a radical development in the search for new renewable energy sources. Novozymes has developed a cold water detergent enzyme that can help people lower their electricity bill. The company Danlind is using Novozymes’ technology in their Care cold water detergent, which can reduce the washing temperature from 60 to 30 degrees or even lower it to 20. This detergent product helps reducing CO2 emissions. Source: Novozymes Inspiration brought to you by New Business Development, Enzyme Business
  • 13. Trend: Do It Yourself Biology What is it? Do It Yourself Biology (DIY Bio) is seen as a democratization of science where hobbyists are doing biological work outside of traditional professional settings. In the 90s open source within personal computers lead to a fast tracked development of the technology. The DIY Bio is seen as the same kind of open source, but in an other technology field. Biological advances are most commonly done by business and academia which are focused on patents that protect their findings. DIY Bio is a crowd-sourced way for hobbyists to help measure, characterize and develop new biotechnological solutions. The philosophy is that DIY-biology can create added value to scientific research and development. It is meant to inspire citizen scientists, amateur biologists, and bioengineers to organize and collaborate on Source: www.mit.edu and www.diybio.org biological projects outside of traditional professional settings. Where could this lead? DIY Bio may lead to the development of new vaccines, new ways of treating disease, and efficient biofuels. Governments and research institutes may embrace this development by creating publicly accessible laboratories for individuals and amateurs outside the professional world. However many experts are warning that a DIY bio movement may potentially cause more harm than good. The danger lies in the fact that genes, organisms, and bacteria's in the hands amateurs could escape and cause outbreaks of deadly diseases or unpredictable environmental damage. Governments may support DIY bio by ensuring some kind of oversight and monitoring. Source: scienceblogs.com, etc. Case stories In the US DIY bio inspired scientist Meredith Patterson is heading an open-source group working on creating a simple ingredient that can make milk products turn green, if it comes in touch with harmful melamine. Melamine-tainted milk is blamed for the deaths of six children in China and making another 290,000 people sick, and the goal is to come up with a more cost-efficient solution than the ones used in commercial testing today. The UK government are not taxing biofuel productions up to 2,500 liters, which have created an increasing market for DIY initiatives. This has created a market for turning vegetable cooking oils into biodiesel and it both makes economic and environmental sense. In the UK a group of people is investing in a micro-biofuel production setup, and additionally the diesel engine need a small configuration of £500- £1000. The cost is offset in a few months. Source: openwetware.org and bbc.co.uk Inspiration brought to you by New Business Development, Enzyme Business
  • 14. Trend: Green retailing What is it? Retailers are now responding to the increasingly active green consumer segment by changing towards more sustainability. The motivation for becoming a green retailer varies, from political and economic to social and strategic reasons, but in general green retailers wants to be recognized as a company caring about our planets future. The retail industry is also starting to acknowledge that it can use green marketing to boost sales, and together with their suppliers they seek to lower costs by using recycled materials in packaging, less water in production, less energy, and to recycle waste. The EU Packaging Directive effectively promotes energy recovery, re-use and recycling of packaging. Waste recycling also helps retailers lower their costs. According to the Carbon Trust, UK retailing accounts for only 7% of UK CO2 emissions, but the industry should easily be able to cut emissions by 10%. Source: communications.lab and retailresearch.org Where could this lead? The retail industry may potentially increase pressure on suppliers to meet the green standards within energy, materials, ingredients and water use. At the same time retailers could experience increasing pressure from the green consumer segment. The retail industry may chose to adopt green Lean Thinking as an approach to achieve sustainability by reducing waste, consumption and costs. Potentially, consumers could get insight into product lifecycles including green logistics, less packaging, better waste and recycling handling, less refrigerated food products, etc. Additionally consumer push could drive towards organic or low-carbon friendly products. New regulation may push the industry to recycle materials and waste water at a much higher level than previously seen. Source: Green Retail 2009 Conference Case stories Marks & Spencer launched a five-year sustainability plan in 2007. M&S is using 200 million pounds until 2012 to combat climate change, reduce waste, safeguard natural resources and trade ethically. The aim and overall goal is also to reduce costs and increase profits. Ikea is building sustainable and eco-efficient superstores in Australia using the latest technologies available. The stores’ air-conditioning only runs during the night when electricity is cheap, during the day it then pumps the cooled water through panels. The toilet water comes from rainwater that is heated using solar panels. Ikea is experiencing 20 pct. lower costs in energy consumption compared to conventional stores. Whole Foods Market is offsetting 100% of its energy use by buying renewable- energy credits, converting its truck fleet to biofuel, composts its food waste, and maintains recycling programs for old consumer electronic products. Source: Marks & Spencer Plan A and ceres.org Inspiration brought to you by New Business Development, Enzyme Business
  • 15. Trend: Life on the Go What is it? ‘Life on the Go’ is the trend of the increasing number of people consuming food, drinks, snacks in the train, in the car, on the street, etc. In addition the number of people living alone is rising. It is categorized as ‘the singles economy’ and addressed as a specific consumer segment. This group demands smaller size portions and easy to make food. Based on the two movements there is an increasing demand for goods and services that can enhance our everyday life effectiveness, e.g. prepared food and drinks in small pack sizes and for ‘on the go’ consumption. Source: Basic American Foods Where could this lead? In the future we may see increased demand for healthy food, drinks and snack products for consumption on the go and/or in smaller and often prepared portions. This may put increased focus on food safety and shelf-life of these products. In a carbon constrained world this development may also increase the demand for sustainable packaging and for sensible ways of handling the increased waste from packaged food. Moreover there may be increased focus on the demand for functional packaging to deal with packaging for fresh or prepared food and drinks. This trend may open business opportunities in functional packaging, sustainable packaging and waste handling of packaging materials. Case stories Australian Barokes ‘Wine in a can’ is a world- patent product appealing to the convenience society. This wine in a can is easy to consume and the can is designed to prolong the wine taste known from conventional wine bottles. UK founded Pret a Manger started in 1986 with a concept of fresh food and drinks using natural, preservative-free ingredients for the consumer on the go. All meals and snacks are fresh and packed – ready to go. Today there 190 Pret a Manger shops mainly in the UK. Inspiration brought to you by New Business Development, Enzyme Business
  • 16. Trend: Value from waste What is it? A number of raw materials, (water, oil, metals, crops, etc.) are becoming more scarce, as a result of long-run increased demand and decreased accessibility. The long-run increasing demand is driven largely by growing economies. In the future many raw materials will join the list of inputs with diminishing availability, and several of these raw materials have huge cost to the environment. Other raw materials such as rubber are to be recycled. Already used raw materials are often treated simply as waste, which is costly for the environment. Yet the value can be recaptured to generate new value, while sustaining our planet. Not Steel scrap ready for recycling reusing raw materials and garbage is a waste of resources, and intelligent waste management makes lowers GHG emissions. Where could this lead? Scarcity could first of all lead to increasing prices of raw materials in the long-run. Higher raw material prices may demand more efficient use of raw materials in manufacturing, and in product life cycles. In addition waste management firms will be motivated to increase there sorting and recycling within all waste categories. Manufacturers may look to minimize raw material usage through material substitution, and consumers could demand retailers to press their suppliers to recycle and re-use all possible materials. Companies that can supply services and products for lowering the expenses for sorting waste for recycling, may potentially meet huge business opportunities in the future. Source: www.recyclemach.com Case stories Norcal Waste Systems effectively handles most of San Francisco city’s household garbage by constantly striving to recycle more by improving processes. At its best, Norcal recycles almost 70 pct. of municipal garbage in San Francisco, which is one of the highest rates in the world. The goal is to achieve ‘zero waste’, but currently metals are the only materials that are constantly profitable to sort and categorize for reselling and recycling. Cardbord is often also profitable, but other non-profitable materials include plastic and paper. The economic shortfall is covered by Norcal’s customers, who pay $25 a month for waste disposal service. To achieve ‘zero’ waste’ they must pay more to offset the costs of more manual sorting. Source: The Economist Inspiration brought to you by New Business Development, Enzyme Business
  • 17. Trend: Enzymes are sustainable chemicals! What is it? The production of chemicals has significantly increased since the 1930’s, and today chemicals are an integrated part of most Chemicals consumer goods e.g. in foods, textiles, toys, and cars. Regulation on chemicals has in most cases been implemented on a reactive basis several years after a specific problem has been seen using the chemical. It now covers many dimensions from the safety of the individual chemicals and their mixtures to the uses and processes they are implemented in. In view of the slow implementation of new regulation, new (semi) voluntary initiatives are appearing e.g. various environmental labels (EU flower, SWAN label) and individual companies requiring specific documentation of the level of dangerous chemicals in the products received from their suppliers. 1930 2000 Where could this lead? While the increasing regulatory demands might be seen as negatively by some parts of industry, other more innovative businesses may see this an opportunity SUSTAINABILITY DIMENSIONS for finding new sustainable ways of obtaining the same product functionalities, substituting chemicals. These frontrunners may also take the time to produce the extensive documentation required for demonstrating that the products are sustainable. ECONOMY SOCIAL Most general regulation categorizes enzymes as chemicals, so Novozymes too is currently dealing with regulatory demands in e.g. the choices of stabilizers for the finished enzyme granulates/liquid formulations. However, alongside our existing sustainability story line around e.g. CO2, with the increasing regulatory legislation, NZ might have the opportunity of promoting ENVIRONMENT other sustainable elements of enzymes e.g. degradability in the environment, and if compared to the more harsh chemical being regulated may also have a lighter toxicity profile towards humans. Case stories In general the retailers are placed in an optimum spot in the value chain for the collection of input from the consumers on needs and new trends. Suppliers Consumers Marks & Spencer has developed an entire range of household products Retailers without synthetic chemicals. Grime and dirt are now removed with natural cleaning agents. Wal-Mart looks at every facet of their business—from the products they offer to the energy they use—through the lens of sustainability. Wal- Mart’s environmental goals are to be supplied 100 percent by renewable energy; to create zero waste; and to sell products that sustain our natural resources and the environment. Source: Marks & Spencer and www.onderzoekinformatie.nl Inspiration brought to you by New Business Development, Enzyme Business