Education - One Year into the COVID Pandemic, Alexander Patzina

THE WELL-BEING OF GERMAN HIGH
SCHOOL STUDENTS IN THEIR FINAL YEARS
DURING THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC
Silke Anger, Sarah Bernhard, Hans Dietrich,
Alexander Patzina, Malte Sandner
IAB-OECD Inequality Seminar
7 June 2021

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MOTIVATION
• School-to-work transition is a decisive period for individuals
− Crucial for status attainment Mülller & Shavit 1998
− Crucial for adolescents’ mental development Schoon & Mortimer 2017
− Adverse educational outcomes affect subjective well-being at later life
course stages e.g., Bell & Blanchflower 2011; Oreopoulos 2007
• Period shocks influence educational decisions and school-to-work
transitions e.g., Barr and Turner 2013; Ersoy 2020; Witteveen 2021
• (Mental) Health crucial for process of status attainment Haas 2006
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The well-being of German high school students in their final years during the COVID-19 pandemic
Research Question
Does the COVID-19 pandemic affect well-being of students in the
transition from high school to post-secondary education? If so, why?

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RELATED RESEARCH & CONTRIBUTION
Related research
Evidence on the immediate effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on
students
• Effort and learning loss e.g., Grewenig et al. 2020; Engzell et al. 2021
• Expectations of university students e.g., Aucejo et al. 2020
• Mental health in adolescents e.g., Giuntella et al. 2020; Shanahan et al. 2020
Our contribution
• Evaluate the non-monetary costs of the COVID-19 pandemic for
individuals in the transition from school to post-secondary education
• Identify potential mechanisms of changes in well-being of students
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SOME THEORETICAL CONSIDERATIONS
• COVID-19 pandemic and subjective well-being
− less exercise, less social contacts, less leisure activities
− increases insecurity (educational career, labor market)
− strongly affects young individuals
− particularly students in their graduation years
• Insecurity and subjective well-being
− Perceived insecurity detrimental to subjective well-being e.g., Wills-
Herrera et al. 2011
− Perceived future risks detrimental to mental health e.g., Kopaskar et al.
2018; 2019
• Immediate vs. intermediate effects of policy measures
The well-being of German high school students in their final years during the COVID-19 pandemic 4

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SOME THEORETICAL CONSIDERATIONS
School students in the transition to post-secondary education should
be stronger affected by COVID-19 pandemic as school leavers
because
1. insecurity at learning institutions is higher
− Uncertainty about school openings & closings
− Uncertainty about final exams
2. of insecurity at home during decision-making process
− Parental employment
− Familial COVID-19 exposure/risk
3. insecurity about educational and occupational future is higher
− Likelihood of match between individual preferences and actual
(educational) decisions unclear
− Insecure labor market situation during education and after
graduation

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DATA: THE BERO STUDY
• BerO Study:
− Evaluation of the role of professional career counselling on
vertical and horizontal educational choices
• Sample:
− Two cohorts of high school students: school leavers 2020 and
graduates 2021
− 8,000 students from 217 schools in 8 federal states
• Data collection: PAPI, CAWI and CATI
• Outcomes:
− Life satisfaction (0 to 10)
− Mental well-being (HSCL; 10 item version, anxiety & depression)
− Physical well-being (1 to 5)
• Timeline: 3 survey waves: fall 2019, spring 2020, fall 2020
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0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
AnzahlFallgleit
01jan2020 01apr2020 01jul2020 01oct2020 01jan2021
MeldedatumRKI
BerO Surveys Wave 1 Wave 3
Wave 2
Sep/Oct 2019 March/April 2020 Nov/Dec 2021
TIMELINE
7
case numbers

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ANALYTICAL STRATEGY
• Immediate effects of school closures
− Difference-in-Differences
𝑌𝑖,𝑡 = 𝛽1𝑆𝐶𝑖 + 𝛽2𝑊𝑖,𝑡 + 𝛽3 𝑆𝐶𝑖𝑊𝑖,𝑡 + 𝜀𝑖,𝑡
SC: After School closure; W: wave
• Intermediate effects of the pandemic
− Random effects growth curve models
− Comparison of school student by cohort
• Explaining differences between cohorts (mechanisms)
− OLS
• Analytic samples
− Balanced
− Transition population (robustness with full sample)
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SAMPLE CHARACTERISTICS
Wave 1 Wave 2 Wave 3
Fall 2019 Spring 2020
(pre school closure)
Spring 2020
(post school closure)
Fall 2020
Male 0.387 0.318 0.398 0.336
1st/2nd generation 0.227 0.219 0.215 0.204
Age 17.52 17.87 17.91 18.47
Parent with university
education
0.53 0.548 0.521
0.529
Graduation cohort 2021 0.548 0.514 0.560 0.525
Observations 7,591 3,566 2,027 5,339
Wave 1, Wave 2, and Wave 3
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Immediate effects of school closures
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EFFECTS OF SCHOOL CLOSURES (SC) ON
SUBJECTIVE WELL-BEING
Mean
Wave 1
Mean
Wave 2 pre SC
Mean
Wave 2 post SC
DID
in % or SE p-value DID
Overall Life Satisfaction (0-10) 7.38 7.03 7.11 -0.016 0.556
Overall Health (1-5) 3.87 3.62 3.88 0.241 0.000
Good Health (0 vs.1) 0.87 0.83 0.90 0.067 0.000
Mean Diff.
pre and
post SC p-value
HSCL (1-5) 1.86 1.74 -0.116 0.000
HSCL above threshold (0 vs. 1) 0.42 0.34 -0.040 0.001
Observations 5,287 3,289 1,998
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Intermediate effects (during COVID-19 pandemic)
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DEVELOPMENT OF DIFFERENT WELL-BEING
OUTCOMES
Data: BerO study wave 1 to 3.
Outcomes: Life satisfaction (0 to 10); self-rated health (1 to 5); HSCL (Dummy
for being below clinical threshold). N Life Satisfaction = 11,091; N SRH =
11,091; N HSCL = 7,394. Controls: gender, school fixed effects, migration
status, parental education, school performance, self-efficacy, Grit, big five
personality traits, graduation cohort, risk aversion, time preferences and
interview mode.

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DEVELOPMENT OF DIFFERENT WELL-BEING
OUTCOMES BY GRADUATION COHORT
Data: BerO study wave 1 to 3.
Outcomes: Life satisfaction (0 to 10); self-rated health (1 to 5); HSCL (Dummy
for being below clinical threshold). N Life Satisfaction = 11,091; N SRH =
11,091; N HSCL = 7,394. Controls: gender, school fixed effects, migration
status, parental education, school performance, self-efficacy, Grit, big five
personality traits, graduation cohort, risk aversion, time preferences and
interview mode.

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Mechanisms explaining differences between
graduation and school leaver cohort
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OPERATIONALIZATION OF POTENTIAL MECHANISMS
(SCHOOL STUDENTS VS. SCHOOL LEAVERS)
• Mechanisms
− Fun with current education (five-point Likert scale)
− Worries about occupational future (five-point Likert scale)
− Worries about insufficient career information (five-point Likert scale)
− Negative impact of distancing policies on future career (dummy)
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MECHANISM EXPLAINING DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN COHORTS AT WAVE 3
Mean cohort 2021
(school students)
Mean cohort 2020
(school leavers)
Difference
Fun with current education 3.651 3.715 -0.064*
Worries about occupational future 2.322 1.959 0.363***
Worries about too less career information 3.058 2.500 0.558***
Negative impact of distancing policies on
future career
0.378 0.553 -0.175***
Note. * p < 0.10, ** p < 0.05, *** p < 0.01 indicting statistical differences (based on t-tests).
Data: BerO study wave 3.

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MECHANISMS EXPLAINING DIFFERENCES IN
LIFE SATISFACTION BETWEEN COHORTS
Note. Standardized beta coefficients from OLS regressions. Statistical significance at: * p < 0.10, ** p < 0.05, *** p < 0.01.
Dependent variables: Life Satisfaction (0-10). Control Variables: sex, migration status, school performance, school fixed effects,
parental education, subjective household income, parental unemployment in last 6 month, onsite education, self-efficacy
Grit, time preference, risk aversion, big five personality traits, interview mode.
(1) (2) (3)
Base model + fun with
education
+ worries
about future
Panel A: Life Satisfaction
Graduation cohort 2021 -0.067*** -0.056** -0.031
Fun with current education 0.198*** 0.187***
Worries about occupational future -0.076***
Worries about too less career information -0.027
Neg. impact of distancing policies on future career 0.038*
R2 0.183 0.216 0.226

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MECHANISMS EXPLAINING DIFFERENCES IN
LIFE SATISFACTION BETWEEN COHORTS
Note. Standardized beta coefficients from OLS regressions. Statistical significance at: * p < 0.10, ** p < 0.05, *** p < 0.01.
Dependent variables: Life Satisfaction (0-10). Control Variables: sex, migration status, school performance, school fixed effects,
parental education, subjective household income, parental unemployment in last 6 month, onsite education, self-efficacy
Grit, time preference, risk aversion, big five personality traits, interview mode.
(1) (2) (3)
Base model + fun with
education
+ worries
about future
Panel A: Life Satisfaction
Graduation cohort 2021 -0.067*** -0.056** -0.031
Fun with current education 0.198*** 0.187***
Worries about occupational future -0.076***
Worries about too less career information -0.027
Neg. impact of distancing policies on future career 0.038*
R2 0.183 0.216 0.226
Results for physical and mental well-being similar.

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SUMMARY
• Well-being at the time of first school closures not negatively affected
− Well-being improves in the short-run (holiday effect?)
• Strong decreases of well-being in fall 2020
− Decreases particularly pronounced for individuals still in school
(graduation cohort 2021)
− Worries about future explain more than 1/3 of the gap between cohorts
• Moreover: Strong decrease in well-being does not lead to changes
in students’ expectations and career plans in the short-run
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IMPLICATION & OUTLOOK
Implication
• The COVID-19 pandemic
− appears to impose in particular insecurity about the occupational future in
school students.
− has the potential to induce high individual costs.
Outlook
• First results on impact of changes in mental well-being between spring
and fall 2020 indicate that strong decreases are associated with
− decreases in educational motivation among both cohorts,
− decreases in security about future educational pathway among graduation
cohort 2021,
− transition outcomes (success probability, satisfaction with educational
choice, and location) among school leaver cohort 2020.
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Thank you for your attention
24

Education - One Year into the COVID Pandemic, Alexander Patzina

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