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Building in
                                                 Sustainability
                                              Prof Graham Hillier, CEng, FRSA
                                          Director of Strategy and Futures, CPI

                                                               Salford University
                                                                  27th April 2011




Copyright CPI 2011. All rights reserved
Content



   •   A bit about me
   •   A bit about the Centre for Process Innovation
   •   Why sustainable engineering is important
   •   Engineering for Sustainability Requires a Behaviour Change
   •   Examples of Sustainable Engineering
   •   Making the Change
A Bit About Me
A Bit About Me


   • Sponsored undergraduate at Rolls-Royce
   • Metallurgy degree at Sheffield University
   • PhD on single crystal turbine blades at Cambridge University
   • Joined ICI worked in Polymer Films, Advanced Materials, Petrochemicals,
     Plastics and Fertilizers. Finished as Strategy Director
   • Moved to British Steel/Corus in Business Development, Merger integration
   • Became Corus Construction Director
   • Joined CPI in Low Carbon Technologies – Included sustainable communities
   • Now CPI Strategy and Futures Director
A Bit About CPI
CPI’s Vision


   Vision
   • A World Class Innovation Centre supporting the Process Industries

   CPI Moves to this Vision by:
   • Build Physical Assets that bring together Companies, Universities, Public
     Sector Funds and Technology Expertise to develop new products and
     processes for the Process Industries




                 Process Development, Proving and Scale Up
Innovation: Technology Readiness Levels (NASA)

                 BUSINESS                                             TRL 9
ECONOMIC
                 DEVELOPMENT
SUPPORT                                                               TRL 8
                 (Enterprise)   System Test, Launch and Operation

                                                                      TRL 7
                                    System/Sub-System Development
                                                                      TRL 6
TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENT                 Technology Demonstration
(CPI)                                                                 TRL 5
                                           Technology Development
                                                                      TRL 4

                                      Research to Prove Feasibility   TRL 3
RESEARCH
                                                                      TRL 2
(Universities)                           Basic Technology Research
                                                                      TRL 1


                  CPI Works at Technology Readiness Level 4 Up
CPI Technology Development



     Sustainable Processing                  Printable Electronics

   • Process and product development
                                       •   Organic Displays
   • Bio transformation reactions
       –   Anaerobic digestion              – Rigid and Flexible
       –   Fermentation                •   Solid State Lighting
       –   Photosynthesis              •   Organic PV
       –   Bio catalysis               •   Electronic Packaging
       –   Marine processing
                                       •   Barrier Films
   • Particulate Processing
       – Dispersion
                                            – LCDs
       – Crystallisation                    – Organic PV
       – Emulsions and blending             – Fuel Cells
   • Sustainable Systems               •   Materials
       – Engineering                        – Printable electronic formulations
       – Communities
Located at Wilton Centre

Semi technical area
 - pilot manufacture

    World class
 analytical facilities

 Modern laboratory
      space
     Office
 accommodation




Land & infrastructure
 for manufacturing

32 companies on site
Some of the CPI Assets

 Bioprocess Lab




                                      National Industrial
                                     Biotechnology Facility


                            Process
 Marine Fermentation     Intensification
Some of the CPI Assets




  SEM


                              Clean Room




                 Litho area    Mask writer
The Sustainability Challenge
The Definition of Sustainability


    Sustainable Development is development that meets the needs of the
    present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet
    their own needs […]. In essence Sustainable Development is a
    process of change in which exploitation of resources, the direction of
    investments, the orientation of technological development and
    institutional change are all in harmony and enhance current and future
    potential to meet human needs and aspirations.

                                           (WCED, Brundtland Commission ,1987)




     Engineering and Built Environment Have Much to Contribute
The Principles of Sustainability


       Create a balance between:
       •   Economic Factors
            – Creating wealth to do things and continue to do them

       •   Environmental and Natural Resource Factors
            – The impact on the resources we have available
       •   Societal Factors
            – That we have healthy, happy full lives




                The Three Factors are Equally Important
The Challenge of Sustainability


  Dealing with:
  •   Growing Population
      – Inexorably increasing the need for food and shelter

  •   Growing Affluence
      – The amount of emissions rise with affluence and we use more

  • Resource Consumption
      – There is only a finite resource it will not last for ever



               This Puts Immense Stress on a Finite System
WHY SUSTAINABLE
ENGINEERING IS IMPORTANT?
Life Expectancy
                                                                     Life Expectancy
                                                             Massachusetts, US Historical Statistics

                              85

                              80

                              75
   Life Expectancy in Years




                              70

                              65

                              60

                              55

                              50

                              45

                              40

                              35
                               1850   1860   1870   1880   1890   1900   1910   1920   1930   1940   1950   1960   1970   1980   1990   2000




                                             Doubled in 150 Years in Developed World
                                                  Developing World will follow
Carbon Dioxide in the Atmosphere Rises with Population


                                                    Carbon Dioxide Concentrations Year on Year
                                                                  (Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii)
                                          390                                                                                              7000


                                          370                                                                                              6000
      Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide (ppmv)




                                          350                                                                                              5000




                                                                                                                                                  Population (Millions)
                                          330                                                                                              4000


                                          310                                                                                              3000


                                          290                                                                                              2000


                                          270                                                                                              1000


                                          250                                                                                              0
                                             1830             1880                           1930                        1980

                                                     Carbon Dioxide Emissions (ppmv)                Population



                                                                                       Source: Mauna Loa Observatory plus historic data from ice cores
Food Prices are rising

                                                    European Wheat Price Year on Year

                           200                                                                                      7000

                           180
                                                                                                                    6000
                           160
  WHEAT PRICE IN $/tonne




                           140                                                                                      5000




                                                                                                                           Population in Millions
                           120
                                                                                                                    4000
                           100
                                                                                                                    3000
                            80

                            60                                                                                      2000

                            40
                                                                                                                    1000
                            20

                             0                                                                                      0
                             1259   1359        1459       1559          1659      1759         1859     1959


                                           Actual      179 pt Moving Average    49pt Moving Average    Population
Carbon Dioxide Emissions Rise with GDP but….
                                                                     Carbon Dioxide Emissions per Person v GDP per Person By Country

                                                 50


                                                 45                                                                                        Qatar
  Carbon Dioxdie Emission per Person (t /year)




                                                 40


                                                 35


                                                                                                               l?
                                                                                                             Oi
                                                 30                                       Bahrain

                                                 25
                                                                                                        Kuw ait
                                                                                                        United Arab Emirates
                                                 20                                                                                                                                                        Luxembourg
                                                                                                                          itioning?
                                                                                                                                                United States

                                                                                                                  Air Cond
                                                                                                                               Australia
                                                 15                                                                            Canada
                                                                                    Saudi Arabia                Singapore
                                                                                Estonia
                                                                                 OmanCzech Republic                                      Finland                                           Norw ay
                                                 10                                                                                      Netherlands
                                                                                                                                   Germany
                                                                                                                                       Japan Kingdom            Republic of Ireland
                                                                        Libya              SouthIsrael
                                                                                                  Korea Greece                          United                  Denmark
                                                                              Poland
                                                                      South Africa
                                                                                Slovakia               Cyprus
                                                                                                 Slovenia       New Zealand             Austria
                                                                                                               Spain European Union
                                                                                                                           Italy      Belgium                     Iceland
                                                                      Malaysia     Hungary
                                                                   Bulgaria Montenegro           Portugal                        France          Sw eden             Sw itzerland
                                                 5                Serbia andCroatia                           Hong Kong
                                                                     Venezuela
                                                                       Lebanon
                                                                   Romania
                                                                 ThailandMexico
                                                                          World
                                                                           Lithuania
                                                                Jordan Chile
                                                                     Argentina
                                                                     Turkey
                                                                  Algeria Panama
                                                                          Latvia
                                                             Egypt Brazil Republic
                                                                Dominican
                                                                  Tunisia
                                                                Ecuador
                                                 0        PakistanCosta Rica
                                                            SriEl
                                                                 Colombia
                                                             Indonesia
                                                               Morocco
                                                           NigeriaUruguay
                                                           IndiaLanka
                                                          Vietnam e
                                                            Zimbabw
                                                          KenyaSalvador
                                                            Philippines
                                                                Guatemala
                                                                 Peru
                                                               Angola
                                                           Yemen
                                                          Bangladesh
                                                          Ghana
                                                          Tanzania
                                                           Sudan
                                                            Cameroon
                                                      0                   10                   20                  30                      40                   50                    60             70          80
                                                                                                                     GDP per Person ('000 US Dollars 2005)



                                                                                                                                                                          Source data: US Statistics Service and UK


                                                                 There seems to be a levelling out at 7.5 t/yr to 10 t/yr
Population Growth Alone Will Increase Atmospheric
Carbon Dioxide Concentration Significantly

                                                   Total Annual
                                   Average CO2                     Increase over
                     Population                    Human CO2
          Case                    Emissions per                      2005 Base
                      (billion)                     Emissions
                                   Person (t/yr)                   Case (bn t/yr)
                                                     (bn t / yr)
 Base Case 2005         6.6            3.6              24
 Rich World 2005
                        6.6            7.5              50          26 (108%)
 Population
 Base Case 2050
                         9             3.6              33            9 (38%)
 Population
 Rich World 2050
                         9             7.5             67.5         43.5 (180%)
 Population




         Dealing with this Much Carbon Dioxide is a Challenge
Earth Resource Balance Since 1850

 Incoming Energy
                                        Extract Resource



                                        Refine Resource     Air Emission
                    Earth      Waste
                                                           Water Emission
                                         Use Resource


Resources Used
                                        Scrap Resource




                   Resource Use exceeds Incoming Energy
Resource Availability
             Element         Available Resource                 Recycling Rate
   Indium                       4-13 Years                              0%
   Silver                       9-29 Years                             16%
   Lead                         8-42 Years                             72%
   Antimony                     13-30 Years                               -
   Tin                          17-40 Years                            26%
   Uranium                      19-59 Years                             0%
   Zinc                         36-46 Years                            26%
   Gold                         36-45 Years                            43%
   Nickel                       57-90 Years                            35%

     • Neodymium, Dysprosium, Terbium – Vital to high power magnets
     • Lithium, Lanthanum – Vital to high power batteries
     • 93% of world rare earth metals come from China
     • Availability is falling because regional use is rising!
                                       Source: New Scientist, May 2007, Chemistry World Jan 2011


  Many Important Elements Our ‘Renewable’ Technologies Need
                     Are in Short Supply
There is a Strong Belief that Oil Production is Peaking




                                   Source: Hubbert Model From Association for the Study of Peak Oil, 2008


  It is Highly Likely That Oil Production Will Peak in the Near Future
Resource Demand in A Simple Equation



 CO2 Emissions = Population x Gross Domestic Product x Energy Used x CO2 Emission
                                   Population            GDP          Energy Used




  Waste = Population x Gross Domestic Product x Resource Used x Waste Made
                           Population              GDP         Resource Used




     We Need to Become More Efficient in Our Use of Resources
 An 80% Reduction comes from Increased Efficiency or Less Activity
                                                       Based on work by Shell scenario planning group
So What Do We Have to Do..


              • Develop more sustainable processes
                  • Use resources more efficiency
             • Improve the efficiency of our processes
           • Look at the efficiency of integrated systems
                   • Convert wastes to products
          • Convert batch processes to continuous ones


     Top Six are Increasingly Strong Political and Economic Drivers
                  Bottom Twois a Our Areas of Strength
                       There are Lot We Can Do
ENGINEERING FOR
SUSTAINABILITY REQUIRES A
       BEHAVIOUR CHANGE
Approaches to Improved Energy Efficiency, Resource
Efficiency and Carbon Reduction


        Reduce use of resources
                                          Reduces
                                            •   Resources Consumed
   Make sure operational resource use       •   Cost
         is as low as possible              •   Emissions
                                            •   Wastes
     Use highly efficient conversion
             technologies                 Increases
                                             • Efficiency of Resource Use
     Add on additional technologies
                                          Requires
                                            • A Different Way of Thinking
                                            • Less Conventional Technology


                  Significant Improvements can be Made
Sustainability in Practice: A Schematic Model
                                                   Assembled
    Raw Material      Component     System          Product        End of Life




       Recycle        Recondition    Re-use        Re-furbish




           Resource Efficient                 Flexible & Adaptable Design
EXAMPLES OF SUSTAINABLE
       ENGINEERING AND
          CONSTRUCTION
Plastic Film Production
                                       Stage                        40% Prime                   60% Prime
      Produce New
         Polymer                                    Value,    %                 Value,    %
                                    100t Capacity                   Tonnes                      Tonnes   Value, £
                                                     £/t     Pass                 £      Pass

          Convert to                New Polymer      (20)             46        (920)            64         (1280)
            Film
                                    Prime Product    100      40      40        4000      60     60         6000

                                     Edge Trim       (10)     10      10        (100)     10     10         (100)

 Failed       Edge       Prime         Failed
                                                              50      50                  30     30
Product       Trims     Product       Product

                                      Recycle        (10)     90      54        (540)     90     36         (360)

                                       Waste          5       10       6         30       10      4          20
 Recycle        Waste    Customer
                                     Total Value                                2470                        4280




             20% Operational Improvement Gives 75% Value Increase
Baffle Reactor

                                Batch to Continuous
                                •   Lower inventory
                                •   Make what you need
                                •   Plug flow so easy to clean
                                •   Highly efficient mixing
                                •   Capital down up to 50%
                                •   Operating cost down up to 90%




 Lower Capital and Operating Cost. Less Resource use and Less
                            Waste
Pump Impeller



                        Steel to Plastic
                        • Lower capital cost
                        • Less material
                        • More hydrodynamic efficiency
                        • Smaller motor or higher volume pumped
                        • Quieter in use




   Greater Efficiency in Use, Less Resource and Lower Cost
The Steel Mini-Mill

•   Completely changed the complexion of the steel industry
•   Uses locally arising scrap to supply a local market
•   Capital reduced by an order of magnitude, operating costs are low
•   Much lower logistics costs
•   Batches can be smaller
•   Investment is affordable
•   Product is the same quality as virgin steel for sections, rod and bar
•   Now 30% (400 million tonnes / year) of steel production
•   Changed by the small upstart company not the incumbents
•   Overall system cost is lower


                   What Else Can we Change Like This?
Drivers in Construction

 • Increasing emphasis on the through life cost
 • Increasing regulatory requirement for improved energy
   performance and reduced waste
 • PPP type contracts are for service delivery over time not capital
   cost
 • Drive the need for:
    –   Rapid build with good quality finishes
    –   Safety, cleanliness, low disturbance and low waste
    –   Flexible and adaptable buildings
    –   Low through life energy use
    –   Low end of life costs


            An Opportunity for Change that we are Resisting
Energy Life Cycle for Offices

 Extraction   Manufacture                             Disposal, including
                                                      Re-use and Recycling
                   Construction




                            Use (and Refurbishment)             Demolition


        Building Energy Consumption is Higher in Use than in
                   Manufacture and Construction
                                                            Source: Amato PhD 1995
FOR SALFORD
                                                                            (Temperate)

                                                                            •   Solar heating
                                                                            •   Natural Ventilation
                                                                            •   Artificial Heating
                                                                            •   Free Heating
                                                                            •   Insulation
                                                                            •   Daylight




Reference: Architecture and the Environment Bioclimatic Building Design, David Lloyd Jones, 1998
Housing Concepts




                   Source: Grimshaw and Partners for World Steel Organisation
Building Sustainable Features into New Buildings

  • Engineering design that uses the principles
     – Build sustainability in
  • Plan the assembly before manufacture and erection
     – E.g. Distribution sheds
  • Use of off-site manufacture or pre-assembly of components
     – Walls, Floors, Roofs
  • Use of IT in design manufacture and assembly
     – Basic design, Fluid dynamics, Virtual reality simulation



        Following Virtual Example Brings Together Existing
                Technology from Around the World
Sustainable Features in Buildings




                   Source: Grimshaw and Partners for International Iron and Steel Institute, 2004
Refurbishment and Reuse Opportunities
 • Half the value of the European construction market is
   refurbishment
 • Buildings made from components or framed in steel lend
   themselves to reuse
    – Reuse whole frame
    – Extend or refashion existing building
    – Dismantle and reuse component parts
 • Improve structure, e.g.
    – Insulate
    – Overclad
    – Glazing
 • Micro generation, e.g.
    – Solar, wind
    – Anaerobic digestion
    – Grey water
Refurbishment and Reuse Example: Winterton House




                                   Source: Corus, Late 1980s
Social Factors

    •   Related to lifestyle and perception
    •   Difficult to gain objective measures
    •   Make people feel good about their environment
    •   Elements such as:
        –   Physical appearance
        –   Function, form and operation
        –   Balance and quality of public and private spaces
        –   Ergonomics
        –   Security and safety
        –   Transport
Environmental Impact:
Examples of Sustainable Construction
Environmental Impact in Construction




1               2                 3       4




    5               6                 7       8
Ashden Rwandan Prison Anaerobic Digestion Example

                           •   Influx of people to a resource poor community,
                           •   Burns all the fire wood, generates untreated
                               sewage,
                           •   Prisoners built anaerobic digestion plant in the
                               gardens
                                – Exclude air from pit of sewage and natural bacteria
                                  produce methane
                           •   No need to denude fire wood
                           •   No sewage problem
                           •   By-product is digestate for use a fertilizer



True Sustainable Intervention: Eliminate 2 problems, Create solutions
     and Educate people to use their skills to repeat the benefit


                                              Source: Ashden Awards, AD Section
Resource Efficient Systems Integrate Technologies to
Reduce Consumption
                         GRID TOP UP           WIND TURBINE


                                       ELECTRICITY
                 IC ENGINE
GAS TOP
                                         COOLING                 Community,
  UP         FUEL                                               Town, Factory,
             CELL                                                  Store,
                                             HEAT
                                                                   Home
 VEHICLE             Excess
  FUEL                Heat
                                  INCINERATE                             Waste
           GAS
                                    GASIFY               SORT
                                                                          EXTRA WASTE
                 CLEAN
                                    DIGEST

                              FERTILIZER, COMPOST       WASTE           GLASS & METAL
MAKING THE CHANGE SO A
SUSTAINABLE BUILT ENVIRONMENT
  BECOMES PART OF OUR FUTURE
Big Challenges to Adopting Sustainable Principles

• Global drivers and trends in resource availability favour this approach
  but we must:
    – Look at engineering and built environment problems differently;
    – Make sure policy makers, business leaders, engineers and construction
      industry understand change is needed and is possible;
    – Aspire to deliver the benefits;
    – Work collaboratively across technical and social disciplinary boundaries;
    – Create a favourable legislative and regulatory environment
    – Take account of the value of finite resources in our economics;
    – Make attractive, reliable and useable products and demonstrate there are
      benefits.

   There is a Large Opportunity for Economic, Social and Environmental
                                  Benefit
           We need to Change Our Behaviour and Do Something
What Could We do?

          Create a ‘Low Carbon Resource Efficient Community’
                  Based on an integrated set of projects
                                     that
   Combine industrial, residential, agricultural and transport applications
                                      to
     Exploit the inherent strengths of the Communities and Regions
                                     And
                        Deliver Economic Well Being

To do this we need to:
    • Facilitate links between research, development and commercial interests to create
      value through application development.
    • Create a range of supply partnerships appropriate to end users to increase adoption.
    • Build supply chain networks that develop the UK industry base.
    • Utilise a range of funding sources.
An Case Study of an Innovation Challenge

                       Fossil Carbon                                   Light             Oxygen




Heat Production
                                                Carbon
                         Fossil Fuel            Dioxide             Rapid Plant
                     Gas Production Unit                              Growth

        Hydrogen
                                                                                                                        Oils

                                                                      Plant Matter                                      Food
                                       Carbon




                                                                                                      Extraction
Power Generation                                                                                                   Pharmaceuticals
                                        Dioxide
                                         And                                         Bio Processing
                                                            Water                                                  Neutraceuticals
    Vehicles                           Nutrients
                                                                                                                   Alkane, Alkene
                                                                                                                      or Alkyne
                    Methane
                                                                                                                      Hydrogen
                                                                    Depleted Plant
     Sewage
                                            Anaerobic                  Matter
                                           Digestion Unit
  Food Waste

 Brewing ands
 Distillery Waste                           Fertilizer
                                                                     Source:
                                                                     Entering the Ecological Age: The Engineer’s Role
 Bio Diesel and
Bio Ethanol Waste                              Land                  CPI and Arup
Conclusions

 • Design things that use little energy
 • Make or build them as efficiently as possible, preferably with reuse in
   mind
 • Think about resource flows before you design
 • Think about resource flows through communities and systems
 • Think how wastes can be eliminated or used as fuels or feedstocks
 • Drive collaborative interdisciplinary working
 • Take action


                 REDUCE, REUSE, RECYCLE, RELATE
The Centre for Process
                                                          Innovation


                                                             www.uk-cpi.com


                                          CPI receives funding from:




Copyright CPI 2011. All rights reserved

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Building in Sustainability - Professor Graham Hillier

  • 1. Building in Sustainability Prof Graham Hillier, CEng, FRSA Director of Strategy and Futures, CPI Salford University 27th April 2011 Copyright CPI 2011. All rights reserved
  • 2. Content • A bit about me • A bit about the Centre for Process Innovation • Why sustainable engineering is important • Engineering for Sustainability Requires a Behaviour Change • Examples of Sustainable Engineering • Making the Change
  • 4. A Bit About Me • Sponsored undergraduate at Rolls-Royce • Metallurgy degree at Sheffield University • PhD on single crystal turbine blades at Cambridge University • Joined ICI worked in Polymer Films, Advanced Materials, Petrochemicals, Plastics and Fertilizers. Finished as Strategy Director • Moved to British Steel/Corus in Business Development, Merger integration • Became Corus Construction Director • Joined CPI in Low Carbon Technologies – Included sustainable communities • Now CPI Strategy and Futures Director
  • 6. CPI’s Vision Vision • A World Class Innovation Centre supporting the Process Industries CPI Moves to this Vision by: • Build Physical Assets that bring together Companies, Universities, Public Sector Funds and Technology Expertise to develop new products and processes for the Process Industries Process Development, Proving and Scale Up
  • 7. Innovation: Technology Readiness Levels (NASA) BUSINESS TRL 9 ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT SUPPORT TRL 8 (Enterprise) System Test, Launch and Operation TRL 7 System/Sub-System Development TRL 6 TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENT Technology Demonstration (CPI) TRL 5 Technology Development TRL 4 Research to Prove Feasibility TRL 3 RESEARCH TRL 2 (Universities) Basic Technology Research TRL 1 CPI Works at Technology Readiness Level 4 Up
  • 8. CPI Technology Development Sustainable Processing Printable Electronics • Process and product development • Organic Displays • Bio transformation reactions – Anaerobic digestion – Rigid and Flexible – Fermentation • Solid State Lighting – Photosynthesis • Organic PV – Bio catalysis • Electronic Packaging – Marine processing • Barrier Films • Particulate Processing – Dispersion – LCDs – Crystallisation – Organic PV – Emulsions and blending – Fuel Cells • Sustainable Systems • Materials – Engineering – Printable electronic formulations – Communities
  • 9. Located at Wilton Centre Semi technical area - pilot manufacture World class analytical facilities Modern laboratory space Office accommodation Land & infrastructure for manufacturing 32 companies on site
  • 10. Some of the CPI Assets Bioprocess Lab National Industrial Biotechnology Facility Process Marine Fermentation Intensification
  • 11. Some of the CPI Assets SEM Clean Room Litho area Mask writer
  • 13. The Definition of Sustainability Sustainable Development is development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs […]. In essence Sustainable Development is a process of change in which exploitation of resources, the direction of investments, the orientation of technological development and institutional change are all in harmony and enhance current and future potential to meet human needs and aspirations. (WCED, Brundtland Commission ,1987) Engineering and Built Environment Have Much to Contribute
  • 14. The Principles of Sustainability Create a balance between: • Economic Factors – Creating wealth to do things and continue to do them • Environmental and Natural Resource Factors – The impact on the resources we have available • Societal Factors – That we have healthy, happy full lives The Three Factors are Equally Important
  • 15. The Challenge of Sustainability Dealing with: • Growing Population – Inexorably increasing the need for food and shelter • Growing Affluence – The amount of emissions rise with affluence and we use more • Resource Consumption – There is only a finite resource it will not last for ever This Puts Immense Stress on a Finite System
  • 17. Life Expectancy Life Expectancy Massachusetts, US Historical Statistics 85 80 75 Life Expectancy in Years 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Doubled in 150 Years in Developed World Developing World will follow
  • 18. Carbon Dioxide in the Atmosphere Rises with Population Carbon Dioxide Concentrations Year on Year (Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii) 390 7000 370 6000 Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide (ppmv) 350 5000 Population (Millions) 330 4000 310 3000 290 2000 270 1000 250 0 1830 1880 1930 1980 Carbon Dioxide Emissions (ppmv) Population Source: Mauna Loa Observatory plus historic data from ice cores
  • 19. Food Prices are rising European Wheat Price Year on Year 200 7000 180 6000 160 WHEAT PRICE IN $/tonne 140 5000 Population in Millions 120 4000 100 3000 80 60 2000 40 1000 20 0 0 1259 1359 1459 1559 1659 1759 1859 1959 Actual 179 pt Moving Average 49pt Moving Average Population
  • 20. Carbon Dioxide Emissions Rise with GDP but…. Carbon Dioxide Emissions per Person v GDP per Person By Country 50 45 Qatar Carbon Dioxdie Emission per Person (t /year) 40 35 l? Oi 30 Bahrain 25 Kuw ait United Arab Emirates 20 Luxembourg itioning? United States Air Cond Australia 15 Canada Saudi Arabia Singapore Estonia OmanCzech Republic Finland Norw ay 10 Netherlands Germany Japan Kingdom Republic of Ireland Libya SouthIsrael Korea Greece United Denmark Poland South Africa Slovakia Cyprus Slovenia New Zealand Austria Spain European Union Italy Belgium Iceland Malaysia Hungary Bulgaria Montenegro Portugal France Sw eden Sw itzerland 5 Serbia andCroatia Hong Kong Venezuela Lebanon Romania ThailandMexico World Lithuania Jordan Chile Argentina Turkey Algeria Panama Latvia Egypt Brazil Republic Dominican Tunisia Ecuador 0 PakistanCosta Rica SriEl Colombia Indonesia Morocco NigeriaUruguay IndiaLanka Vietnam e Zimbabw KenyaSalvador Philippines Guatemala Peru Angola Yemen Bangladesh Ghana Tanzania Sudan Cameroon 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 GDP per Person ('000 US Dollars 2005) Source data: US Statistics Service and UK There seems to be a levelling out at 7.5 t/yr to 10 t/yr
  • 21. Population Growth Alone Will Increase Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Concentration Significantly Total Annual Average CO2 Increase over Population Human CO2 Case Emissions per 2005 Base (billion) Emissions Person (t/yr) Case (bn t/yr) (bn t / yr) Base Case 2005 6.6 3.6 24 Rich World 2005 6.6 7.5 50 26 (108%) Population Base Case 2050 9 3.6 33 9 (38%) Population Rich World 2050 9 7.5 67.5 43.5 (180%) Population Dealing with this Much Carbon Dioxide is a Challenge
  • 22. Earth Resource Balance Since 1850 Incoming Energy Extract Resource Refine Resource Air Emission Earth Waste Water Emission Use Resource Resources Used Scrap Resource Resource Use exceeds Incoming Energy
  • 23. Resource Availability Element Available Resource Recycling Rate Indium 4-13 Years 0% Silver 9-29 Years 16% Lead 8-42 Years 72% Antimony 13-30 Years - Tin 17-40 Years 26% Uranium 19-59 Years 0% Zinc 36-46 Years 26% Gold 36-45 Years 43% Nickel 57-90 Years 35% • Neodymium, Dysprosium, Terbium – Vital to high power magnets • Lithium, Lanthanum – Vital to high power batteries • 93% of world rare earth metals come from China • Availability is falling because regional use is rising! Source: New Scientist, May 2007, Chemistry World Jan 2011 Many Important Elements Our ‘Renewable’ Technologies Need Are in Short Supply
  • 24. There is a Strong Belief that Oil Production is Peaking Source: Hubbert Model From Association for the Study of Peak Oil, 2008 It is Highly Likely That Oil Production Will Peak in the Near Future
  • 25. Resource Demand in A Simple Equation CO2 Emissions = Population x Gross Domestic Product x Energy Used x CO2 Emission Population GDP Energy Used Waste = Population x Gross Domestic Product x Resource Used x Waste Made Population GDP Resource Used We Need to Become More Efficient in Our Use of Resources An 80% Reduction comes from Increased Efficiency or Less Activity Based on work by Shell scenario planning group
  • 26. So What Do We Have to Do.. • Develop more sustainable processes • Use resources more efficiency • Improve the efficiency of our processes • Look at the efficiency of integrated systems • Convert wastes to products • Convert batch processes to continuous ones Top Six are Increasingly Strong Political and Economic Drivers Bottom Twois a Our Areas of Strength There are Lot We Can Do
  • 28. Approaches to Improved Energy Efficiency, Resource Efficiency and Carbon Reduction Reduce use of resources Reduces • Resources Consumed Make sure operational resource use • Cost is as low as possible • Emissions • Wastes Use highly efficient conversion technologies Increases • Efficiency of Resource Use Add on additional technologies Requires • A Different Way of Thinking • Less Conventional Technology Significant Improvements can be Made
  • 29. Sustainability in Practice: A Schematic Model Assembled Raw Material Component System Product End of Life Recycle Recondition Re-use Re-furbish Resource Efficient Flexible & Adaptable Design
  • 30. EXAMPLES OF SUSTAINABLE ENGINEERING AND CONSTRUCTION
  • 31. Plastic Film Production Stage 40% Prime 60% Prime Produce New Polymer Value, % Value, % 100t Capacity Tonnes Tonnes Value, £ £/t Pass £ Pass Convert to New Polymer (20) 46 (920) 64 (1280) Film Prime Product 100 40 40 4000 60 60 6000 Edge Trim (10) 10 10 (100) 10 10 (100) Failed Edge Prime Failed 50 50 30 30 Product Trims Product Product Recycle (10) 90 54 (540) 90 36 (360) Waste 5 10 6 30 10 4 20 Recycle Waste Customer Total Value 2470 4280 20% Operational Improvement Gives 75% Value Increase
  • 32. Baffle Reactor Batch to Continuous • Lower inventory • Make what you need • Plug flow so easy to clean • Highly efficient mixing • Capital down up to 50% • Operating cost down up to 90% Lower Capital and Operating Cost. Less Resource use and Less Waste
  • 33. Pump Impeller Steel to Plastic • Lower capital cost • Less material • More hydrodynamic efficiency • Smaller motor or higher volume pumped • Quieter in use Greater Efficiency in Use, Less Resource and Lower Cost
  • 34. The Steel Mini-Mill • Completely changed the complexion of the steel industry • Uses locally arising scrap to supply a local market • Capital reduced by an order of magnitude, operating costs are low • Much lower logistics costs • Batches can be smaller • Investment is affordable • Product is the same quality as virgin steel for sections, rod and bar • Now 30% (400 million tonnes / year) of steel production • Changed by the small upstart company not the incumbents • Overall system cost is lower What Else Can we Change Like This?
  • 35. Drivers in Construction • Increasing emphasis on the through life cost • Increasing regulatory requirement for improved energy performance and reduced waste • PPP type contracts are for service delivery over time not capital cost • Drive the need for: – Rapid build with good quality finishes – Safety, cleanliness, low disturbance and low waste – Flexible and adaptable buildings – Low through life energy use – Low end of life costs An Opportunity for Change that we are Resisting
  • 36. Energy Life Cycle for Offices Extraction Manufacture Disposal, including Re-use and Recycling Construction Use (and Refurbishment) Demolition Building Energy Consumption is Higher in Use than in Manufacture and Construction Source: Amato PhD 1995
  • 37. FOR SALFORD (Temperate) • Solar heating • Natural Ventilation • Artificial Heating • Free Heating • Insulation • Daylight Reference: Architecture and the Environment Bioclimatic Building Design, David Lloyd Jones, 1998
  • 38. Housing Concepts Source: Grimshaw and Partners for World Steel Organisation
  • 39. Building Sustainable Features into New Buildings • Engineering design that uses the principles – Build sustainability in • Plan the assembly before manufacture and erection – E.g. Distribution sheds • Use of off-site manufacture or pre-assembly of components – Walls, Floors, Roofs • Use of IT in design manufacture and assembly – Basic design, Fluid dynamics, Virtual reality simulation Following Virtual Example Brings Together Existing Technology from Around the World
  • 40. Sustainable Features in Buildings Source: Grimshaw and Partners for International Iron and Steel Institute, 2004
  • 41. Refurbishment and Reuse Opportunities • Half the value of the European construction market is refurbishment • Buildings made from components or framed in steel lend themselves to reuse – Reuse whole frame – Extend or refashion existing building – Dismantle and reuse component parts • Improve structure, e.g. – Insulate – Overclad – Glazing • Micro generation, e.g. – Solar, wind – Anaerobic digestion – Grey water
  • 42. Refurbishment and Reuse Example: Winterton House Source: Corus, Late 1980s
  • 43. Social Factors • Related to lifestyle and perception • Difficult to gain objective measures • Make people feel good about their environment • Elements such as: – Physical appearance – Function, form and operation – Balance and quality of public and private spaces – Ergonomics – Security and safety – Transport
  • 44. Environmental Impact: Examples of Sustainable Construction
  • 45. Environmental Impact in Construction 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
  • 46. Ashden Rwandan Prison Anaerobic Digestion Example • Influx of people to a resource poor community, • Burns all the fire wood, generates untreated sewage, • Prisoners built anaerobic digestion plant in the gardens – Exclude air from pit of sewage and natural bacteria produce methane • No need to denude fire wood • No sewage problem • By-product is digestate for use a fertilizer True Sustainable Intervention: Eliminate 2 problems, Create solutions and Educate people to use their skills to repeat the benefit Source: Ashden Awards, AD Section
  • 47. Resource Efficient Systems Integrate Technologies to Reduce Consumption GRID TOP UP WIND TURBINE ELECTRICITY IC ENGINE GAS TOP COOLING Community, UP FUEL Town, Factory, CELL Store, HEAT Home VEHICLE Excess FUEL Heat INCINERATE Waste GAS GASIFY SORT EXTRA WASTE CLEAN DIGEST FERTILIZER, COMPOST WASTE GLASS & METAL
  • 48. MAKING THE CHANGE SO A SUSTAINABLE BUILT ENVIRONMENT BECOMES PART OF OUR FUTURE
  • 49. Big Challenges to Adopting Sustainable Principles • Global drivers and trends in resource availability favour this approach but we must: – Look at engineering and built environment problems differently; – Make sure policy makers, business leaders, engineers and construction industry understand change is needed and is possible; – Aspire to deliver the benefits; – Work collaboratively across technical and social disciplinary boundaries; – Create a favourable legislative and regulatory environment – Take account of the value of finite resources in our economics; – Make attractive, reliable and useable products and demonstrate there are benefits. There is a Large Opportunity for Economic, Social and Environmental Benefit We need to Change Our Behaviour and Do Something
  • 50. What Could We do? Create a ‘Low Carbon Resource Efficient Community’ Based on an integrated set of projects that Combine industrial, residential, agricultural and transport applications to Exploit the inherent strengths of the Communities and Regions And Deliver Economic Well Being To do this we need to: • Facilitate links between research, development and commercial interests to create value through application development. • Create a range of supply partnerships appropriate to end users to increase adoption. • Build supply chain networks that develop the UK industry base. • Utilise a range of funding sources.
  • 51. An Case Study of an Innovation Challenge Fossil Carbon Light Oxygen Heat Production Carbon Fossil Fuel Dioxide Rapid Plant Gas Production Unit Growth Hydrogen Oils Plant Matter Food Carbon Extraction Power Generation Pharmaceuticals Dioxide And Bio Processing Water Neutraceuticals Vehicles Nutrients Alkane, Alkene or Alkyne Methane Hydrogen Depleted Plant Sewage Anaerobic Matter Digestion Unit Food Waste Brewing ands Distillery Waste Fertilizer Source: Entering the Ecological Age: The Engineer’s Role Bio Diesel and Bio Ethanol Waste Land CPI and Arup
  • 52. Conclusions • Design things that use little energy • Make or build them as efficiently as possible, preferably with reuse in mind • Think about resource flows before you design • Think about resource flows through communities and systems • Think how wastes can be eliminated or used as fuels or feedstocks • Drive collaborative interdisciplinary working • Take action REDUCE, REUSE, RECYCLE, RELATE
  • 53. The Centre for Process Innovation www.uk-cpi.com CPI receives funding from: Copyright CPI 2011. All rights reserved