Keynote speech from Caroline Gabriel of Rethink Research

1. Caroline Gabriel, Content Director,
Small Cell Forum
Densification Market Landscape
© Small Cell Forum Ltd 2017

2. Densification is on the agenda now
• 5G will be hyperdense
• But current deployments are often
about not being rushed into 5G
© Small Cell Forum Ltd 2017
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5
APAC
Hyperdense Dense
Medium dense Non-dense
33
35
21
11
Global
Hyperdense Dense
Medium dense Non-dense
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
USDmillion
5G RAN 4G RAN
APAC leads the world in densification –
43% of cells deployed in 2020 will be
hyperdense, compared to 33% globally
Small cell deployments Source: Rethink

3. Why is densification happening now?
• Several deployment trends are gaining urgency, and
need more coverage and capacity – before 5G
 Mobile data usage drives densification to scale
 Enterprises need mobile connectivity for business-
critical communications, IoT will accelerate such
demand
 There are still many users who are underserved and
must be connected
• Small cells are at the heart of all these, but moving
early brings the risk of technology dead ends.
• 5G is on the horizon, so today’s investments must be
future-proofed with a common roadmap
Driving
densification
Delivering
Enterprise
connectivity
Connecting
the
unconnected
Future-
proofing
investments
Small
cells
© Small Cell Forum Ltd 2017

4. India outpaces the world
© Small Cell Forum Ltd 2017
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
,000
Urban Enterprise Rural
CAGR 33%
CAGR 90%
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
,000
Urban Enterprise Rural
CAGR 26%
CAGR 79%
Global small cell
deployments
Indian small cell
deployments
India small cell deployments Source: Rethink

5. Drivers and application areas
Dense capacity to
support QoE
Lower cost of
capacity
Dense capacity to
support new
services
Exploit MEC
and edge
cloud
Harness new spectrum bands
Ubiquitous coverage
Context aware
services
Enterprise revenue
growth
Superior network to cable WiFi
Support IoT services
© Small Cell Forum Ltd 2017APAC MNO survey 2017. Source: Rethink
34
32
28
25
24
21
21
17
14
12

6. What are the barriers?
© Small Cell Forum Ltd 2017
43
40
29
21
21
19
17
14
13
11
Sites
Approval process
ROI (services)
Backhaul
Opex
Interoperability
SON
Network sharing
Spectrum
Macro interworking
APAC MNO survey 2017. Source: Rethink

7. Wireless is a key enabler, but it hasn’t been
designed with density in mind
© Small Cell Forum Ltd 2017

8. Key technology enablers are falling in place
• 5G radio will enable transformation
• Ultra-low power
• Extreme personalization
• Network slicing
• Personal cells
• But architecture must be established
first, in 4G
• Virtualization
• Automation
• Orchestration
• Edge computing
• New spectrum
• Standards
© Small Cell Forum Ltd 2017
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46
42
36
24
Virtualized small cells SON/automation
Shared spectrum Edge computing
5G radio
APAC MNO survey 2017. Source: Rethink

9. Key commercial enablers need work
• New operating models
• Neutral host
• Private networks and subnets
• Wholesale and network slicing
• New processes to simplify deployment
at huge scale
• Like 5G, small cells must enable
operators to reach out to verticals
© Small Cell Forum Ltd 2017
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Thousandnewsmallcells
One MNO MNOs sharing
Neutral host Private or enterprise
Global MNO survey 2017. Source: Rethink
New deployments of small cells
Under different ownership regimes
Global, in thousands

10. Progress relies on cooperation
Industries and cities
• Streamlined permitting for sites and
equipment
• E.g. batch processing, accelerated
timelines
• Simplified access to city
infrastructure assets
• Updated fee structures
• Progress
• Government and city initiatives to
simplify rules e.g. USA, France, Japan
• IEC common classifications for small
cell equipment
© Small Cell Forum Ltd 2017
Telco industry
• Adoption of new operating models better
suited to cities e.g. neutral host
• Develop open platforms which reduce
cost and encourage automation
• Open APIs to facilitate a broad developer
base focused on cities
• Efforts to understand needs of cities and
engage with them
• Progress
• City engagement in 5G projects e.g. EU
5G PPP
• SCF HetNet Architecture and APIs
SCF

11. 5G needs to bridge the gulf
• 5G will meet many industrial and city demands
• Lower power consumption
• Easier deployment and lower costs
• Flexible, programmable networks to support each city’s
preferred applications
• A standard underlying platform so cities can exchange
data and reuse work
• Coverage in every corner to support critical services
• Support for vehicle connectivity to improve safety and
congestion
• Huge numbers of devices, sensors and access points
• Small cells are fundamental to these changes
© Small Cell Forum Ltd 2017
Source: CTIA
To justify its deployment, 5G must bridge the gulf
• Provide the key enablers of new and visionary services, based on small cells
• But talk the language of verticals and cities

12. Towards 5G in India
• 5G trials under way e.g. ZTE with
Reliance Jio, Airtel, Vodafone
• Telecom minister unveils 5G Committee
• Auctions 2018
• Mobile data rise eightfold to almost 8EB
by 2022 (Ericsson)
• A time to reconsider:
• Macro-centric deployment model
• Single MNO build and operate
• Target users and ARPU assumptions
• 5G needs to do things differently and
small cells will drive that
© Small Cell Forum Ltd 2017
402
151156
570
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2022 2025
,000
4G 5G
India small cell deployments Source: Rethink