1. Pemba port, northern Mozambique. Source: Interfax
SUMMER 2015
GLOBAL
ENERGY
SPECIAL REPORT
THE RUMBLE IN ROVUMA:
MOZAMBIQUE TAKES ON THE LNG HEAVYWEIGHTS

2. Contents
Maputo plays the waiting game
Hope prevails despite political turbulence
Strengthening laws and institutions
Risky setting makes cost overruns more likely
The price outlook for Mozambique LNG
Gossip surrounds majors’ moves
Further down the line
Our unique content offers fresh viewpoints on industry developments. Unlike our competitors, who spend the majority of their
time chasing market data, making price assessments, or writing real-time news for traders, Natural Gas Daily journalists dedicate
their time to seeking independent, expert opinions to provide more interesting details, analyses and global perspectives on a
region-by-region basis. Many publications focus on one specific region or sector. NGD covers all regions and sectors.
News and features with a difference
Global Gas Analytics provides forward-looking analysis of the key trends that will determine fundamentals and prices in the
months and years ahead. Our tagline is “Gas market analysis fuelled by industry insight”. Although regular discussion with the
industry is at the core of our understanding of market developments, the viewpoints and forecasts provided in GGA are our own.
Our analysts are experienced professionals with prior experience in gas market analysis at leading consulting or trading firms.
Analysis driven by industry insight
Interfax Energy Special Report
Construction was expected to begin on the first Rovuma Basin LNG projects by the end of 2014, but low oil prices and a challenging
in-country environment means FIDs remain some way off.
The air of optimism surrounding Mozambique’s political scene since Filipe Nyusi’s election as president has been clouded by a restive
opposition threatening to seize power in six of Mozambique’s northern and central provinces
Mozambique’s new government has been broadly welcomed by investors, but the capacity of government institutions to regulate a
mammoth LNG industry remains in doubt, while legal uncertainties threaten to complicate matters further.
Political instability, a remote location and the operators’ lack of LNG experience will make financing and constructing the LNG
projects a major challenge, despite falling EPC prices. Eni’s FLNG plans appear to provide a quick fix, but also present serious
technical and political challenges.
The emergence of the US as an LNG exporter and the prospect of more piped Russian gas to China are just two factors that could
affect the price of Mozambique’s LNG.
As Eni and Anadarko remain tight-lipped and FID is kicked further down the road, the rumour mill is turning furiously to fill the
information gap.
Mozambique LNG will happen, but not by 2018 – and that may be no bad thing. Mozambique is already looking beyond LNG,
to GTL, petrochemicals and pipeline exports to South Africa, but a gas-fuelled boom too soon could destroy other sectors of the
economy and weaken governance.