The prime objective of a state is to improve the quality of life of its citizens. For this, the state formulates a comprehensive set of interdependent policies. Foreign policy is one such policy formulated to achieve the above objectives by utilising the foreign relations of a country This presentation attempts to explain foreign policy challenges of Pakistan in its rapidly changing regional apparatus and how to respond to them Kindly do read Part 1 & 2 of this series for acquainting yourself with the basic concepts of foreign policy and history of foreign relations of Pakistan

1. Shahid Hussain Raja
Author/Consultant/Trainer
www.shahidhussainraja.com

2.  Introduction
 Pakistan's Regional Apparatus
 Foreign Policy Challenges
 Setting house in order
 Reset USA-Pakistan Relations
 Cement Pakistan China Relations
 Re-invigorate Pakistan-Russia Relations
 Avoiding Arab-Iran Conflict
 Re-assess Pakistan-India Relations
 Handle Post-NATO Afghanistan Carefully
 Economic Diplomacy
 Conclusion

3.  Prime objective of a state is to improve quality of life of its citizens. For this,
state formulates comprehensive set of interdependent policies.
 Foreign policy is one such policy formulated to achieve the above objectives
by utilising the foreign relations of a country
 This presentation attempts to explain foreign policy challenges of Pakistan
in its rapidly changing regional apparatus and how to respond to them
 Kindly do read Part 1 & 2 of this series for acquainting yourself with the
basic concepts of foreign policy and history of foreign relations of Pakistan

4.  Regional apparatus of a country refers to threats posed and opportunities available to a
country from the conflicts and/or cooperation among the countries in region due to
global or regrional politics which could, adversely or positively, impact upon the efforts of
a country to safeguard its national interest.
 Regional apparatus at any given time is the result of interaction among multiple
constants and variables such as the geographical location of the country, the geopolitical
configurations of the state and non-state actors, significant events and global trends
 Consequently, there are four determinants of a country's regional appatatus
1. Geographical Location
2. Regional Dynamics
3. Global Politics
4. Trends & Events

5.  How a country’s unique geographical location and availability of
resources can create conflicts within/outside country in the region
 This could be an asset as well as a liability depending upon context
 Some of the known geostrategic flashpoints are
◦ Middle East/Central Asia (Oil)
◦ Afghanistan(Gas pipelines corridor)
◦ Singapore(Malacca Strait)
◦ Iran( Hormuz choke point),
◦ Egypt(Suez Canal)

6.  One of the most geostratically important regions of world
 Direct neighbour of two most populous/nuclear countries
 Buffer state between gas-rich Central & gas poor India
 Between oil-rich Middle East & oil import dependent India
 Littoral state of Indian Ocean-busieast oil/trade sea route
 Part of biggest market for goods/services-military & consumer
 Mineral rich, fertile land, huge population, irrigation network
 All above-assetts as well as liability-conflicts, crises and wars

7.  How the country is affected by the regional conflicts and
crises i.e., civil war in Afghanistan, china-india stand-off et
 Specifically, geopolitical configurations pertain to the formal
and informal alliances among the regional countries
 These regional alliances and antagonism may have the
blessing of global powers also
 However, these regional configurations are not cast in iron-
can change as per the requirements of the situation

8.  India- America Strategic Partenership-adverse impact
 China Pakistan Economic Corridor-positive impact
 China-Iran Strategic Agreement-positive
 Russia-India Friendship Treaty-neutral to adverse
 Iran- India Friendship-from adverse to neutral
 India-Afghanistan Friendship-adverse impact
 Shanghai Regional Cooperation-positive impact
 South Asian States Regional Cooperation-dormant
 Indian hegemonic designs-always there but now open

9.  Regional conflicts arise by impact of the capitalist world economy/
economic/strategic penetration by major powers into the Third World
 Global powers having global agenda, are every country’s neighbour
providing diplomatic suppot/economic assistance/military aid
 Accordingly their mutual interaction would have serious impact upon
the foreign policies of every country in the region
 Two-way street- major powers are also affected regional conflicts in
which they have become entangled in a competitive fashion.

10.  Advent of Cold War 2 between rising China & declining USA
 American efforts of Containment of China-bolstring India
 Chinese efforts of global Connectivity-construction of CPEC
 American sanctions on Iran; retarding economic growth
 China -Russia Friendship; window of opportunity for Pakistan
 NATO/USA Inroads in Russia's security parameters
 Pippelines politics-Central Asia /Middle East
 Iran- Saudi Arabia Rivalry; oil supplies/expatriates/terrorism

11.  Lastly, every country is affected, directly or indirectly, by any
significant event or trend happenening anywhere in the world
 Some events/trends are global-climate change/nuclear
proliferation/Covid -19 pandemic
 Some trends affects every country-human rights movements

12.  Religious Extremism in India and Pakistan
 Rising sub-nationalism in region
 Global Terrorism
 Arms race & Nuclear Proleferation
 Covid-19 Pandemic

13.  Permanent Challenge- realisation of national interest objectives-
external security, wellbeing, internal stability, regional peace,
Kashmir
 Covid-19: Pakistan successful in containing corona virus pandemic
but threat still there; can adversely affect economic indicators
 New global/regional geopolitical realignments-India-US strategic
alliance, containment of China, Iran-US stand off
 Post-NATO Afghanistan-depends how US withdraws, Vietnam style or
USSR exit from Afghanistan/ different implications
 Terrorism, insurgency and regional proxy wars- Pakistan cannot
afford nor allow terrorist activities

14.  Attracting FDI/Increasing Exports: Pakistan desperately needs
foreign investment, technology, foreign exchange
 Globalization Challenges: Smooth but gainful integration of
Pakistani economy with the rest of the world
 Water Scarcity-Growing population, climate change leading to
water scarcity creating tensions between India-Pakistan
 Improving Global Image-to project Pakistan as modern,
prosperous, forward looking country, tolerant society

15.  Setting house in order
 Reset USA-Pakistan Relations
 Cement Pakistan-China Relations
 Reinvigorate Pakistan-Russia Relations
 Reassess Pakistan-India Relations
 Hande Carefully Post-NATO Afghanistan
 Strengthen Pakistan-Iran Relations
 Avoid Arab-Iran Conflict
 Economic Diplomacy

16.  Effectiveness of foreign policy=f (domestic situation + diplomatic
efforts). Divided house never generates confidence
 Health of the nations more important than wealth.(Will Durant). All
efforts to control Covid-19 spread and its attendant after-effects
 All parties consensus on fundamentals-federal form of state,
parliamentary democracy, fundamental rights etc
 Institutional Strengthening-supremacy of parliament, independent
judiciary, de-politicised civil/military bureaucracy,

17.  Nothing succeeds like success and nothing fails like failure. Healthy
growth rate over a period automatically improves image.
 Let us devote our energies to economic development including
human and social development for a decade and see how Pakistan
gets a prominent place in the global ranking.
 However, this growth process should be inclusive, and its results are
shared by all. Inequitable distribution of wealth is security threat also
 All out efforts to attract FDI for greater technological diffusion and
smooth integration of Pakistan economy with the rest of the world.

18.  Formulation of proactive foreign policy anchored around broad-based
national consensus on our national interest is the need of the day.
 While territorial integrity and national sovereignty would remain
cornerstones of this national interest, we should now emphasize
improving quality of life of its citizens as pivot of our foreign policy.
 It is possible only if we extricate foreign policy formulation from
security establishment and vesting it with the public representatives.
 Only they are in a position to select the best available options and
the strategies to achieve its objectives by utilising all our resources.

19.  USA istill super power-no need to antagonise it; even China has no objection to
better USA-Pakistan relations
 USA/West our largest trade partner, technology source, biggest aid donors plus
hosts of large diaspora/students
 Genuine interests of USA must be protected-terrorism, safe exit from Afghanistan,
nuclear safety guarantees etc
 However, not at cost of our genuine core interests- CPEC, Kashmir, Nuclear
deterrence, Indian Hegemony
 USA should play a proactive and a positive role in an amicable resolution of all
interstate disputes in the region. This includes Kashmir dispute

20.  Push for US multinationals FDI/greater access to US market. Desist from issuing too
many travel advisories restricting the visits of foreign investors into Pakistan.
 Positive nod to multilateral institutions like World Bank/IMF for boosting foreign
investment in Pakistan. And that FATF sword-the sooner it is lifted, the better.
 USA should play a proactive and a positive role in an amicable resolution of all
interstate disputes in the region. This includes Kashmir dispute
 Desist India from creating unrest in Pakistan, particularly in Baluchistan and Karachi

21.  Pakistan's relationship with China is strategic, historic, trouble-free
and pivotal to our foreign policy. We depend upon each other more
 With coming together of India and USA for containment of China,
Pakistan has become even more important for China than before
 We should keep on work actively for a just and peaceful solution to
the Kashmir dispute and other issues of mutual interests
 China should express publicly its opposition to any use or threat of
force against Pakistan and warn that this would evoke an appropriate
Chinese response.

22.  Affirm that security of CPEC is common responsibility of Pakistan & China as
Indian terrorism to sabotage CPEC is an attack on our mutual interests
 Any incentive to India to join CPEC should be made jointly by Pakistan &
China without compromising Pakistan’s position on Kashmir dispute.
 China should provide Pakistan, on concessional terms, weapons systems
and defence capabilities required to neutralise the advanced weapons
technologies being acquired by India from the US or other sources.
 If Pakistan capitulates to India’s hegemonic designs, New Delhi’s military
capabilities will be increasingly deployed against China

23.  Pakistan-Russia relations have improved a lot due to multiple
reasons-Chinese efforts, American attitude, mutual needs
 However, they cannot be those between Russia and India for
sheer economic reasons-size does matter in global relations
 Pakistan should seek avenues where convergence of mutual
interests-terrorism, economic cooperation, Afghanistan
 Pakistan should encourage inclusion of Russia in CPEC as it
would blunt the Indian opposition to CPEC

24.  Iran -next door neighbour, can influence shias in Pakistan, has
security interests in Afghanistan, has nuclear ambitions
 Assure Iran of our neutrality in its standoff with the USA. However, it
should not allow India to use its soil against Pakistan
 Assure Iran that Pakistan values its help but will not be dictated on
how it deals with others to safeguard national interest
 Iran should see us as bridge between it and the Sunni Arab world
 More cooperation in oil/gas, energy generation/ joint ventures

25.  Saudi Arabia-religious affinity, defence cooperation,energy needs,
financial assistance, hosts diaspora, made investment.
 We should value Saudi help but must not be dictated by them on how
Pakistan deals with its neighbors to safeguard its national interest
 Pakistan should assure Saudi Arabia that our close relations with Iran
should be construed as a bridge not a gulf between Iran & Arab world
 We should push for honourable treatment of Pakistani expatriates,
welcome more Saudi investment in oil/gas, urban development
 We should also make it clear that their close relations with India
should in no way be at the cost of vital national interest of Pakistan

26.  Intense rivalry in foreseeable future, thanks to Modi-inspired anti-
Pakistan hatred in India. Our traders must find new avenues of trade
 Kashmir-not a lost cause even after abrogation of its special status
and we must keep on supporting the just cause of the Kashmiris
 India's reservations on CPEC are ill-founded and must be answered
befittingly as CPEC is the real game changer for national interest
 Possibility of Water war is becoming more grim with the rise of
hinduata nationalists in policy making in India. We must be careful
 Post-NATO Afghanistan-we must keep good relations with all the
groups and try to play an honest broker to dilute Indian influence

27.  Afghanistan, our next-door neighbour, historical love-hate baggage, ethnic
overlapping, sociocultural similarities, econ. interdependence
 However, our relations have never been harmonious except brief moments of
exceptional goodwill; both countries blame each other but greater burden is on
Afghanistan for this ill-will-Pakhtunistan/ Baluchistan issues
 Relations with Afghanistan depend a lot on the way NATO forces exit-Vietnam style
or USSR exit style. Civil war or smooth transition
 Pakistan should try to play a balancing act with all the warring factions to ensure a
peaceful post-NATO Afghanistan
 Come what may, border management must stay with defensive border wall

28.  Litmus test of success of any policy is the realisation of goals/ objectives
determined under components of national interest
 Geostrategically located medium powers like Pakistan become inconsequential
unless they use their strengths and exploit opportunities with astute diplomacy
 Despite its several handicaps, Pakistan has not done bad in pursuing the objectives
of its national interest. It can claim some stellar successes in its diplomatic bag
 However, there is no cause for complacency as the issues becoming complex
transcending borders, involving multiple state/non-state stakeholders
 As such, there is need to improve the capacity of all institutions to formulate proper
policies, including foreign policy and implement them with ruthless efficiency