Latest MLS® Home Price Index statistics

1. Toronto MLS®
Home Price Index
Creative Commons license
Scott Ingram
CPA, CA, MBA
REALTOR®
Witches’ House
by André Carrotflower
Sept
2017

2. Toronto Real Estate
Introduction
Average prices hide a lot of information and are subject to volatility. What if a higher
percentage of condos sold last month? Average prices can change if no underlaying
prices changes at all changed but just the mix changed. What if a few $10 million
homes sold last month? That would skew the average as well.
The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) was created to be a more apples-to-apples look at
changes in average price. Like the CPI features a basket of goods that remains
constant, the HPI uses “benchmark” homes that feature a basket of attributes that
remain constant. Then it tracks the prices of just those homes over time, so the effects
of mix changes are minimized.
Here’s an introduction to the HPI if you’d like a bit more background information.
NEW

3. Comparison of YoY price increases
century21.ca/scott.ingram
You’ll notice the black line (416 average price) is more volatile than the HPI. It has reached lower
lows (including a couple of negative dips) and higher highs than the orange HPI composite line.
The average is more susceptible to fluctuations in mix. For example, March 2017 sales were 49%
detached, while Sept 2017 was down to 26% detached – lower than the 31% last year.
27.7%
15.3%
28.6%
5.6%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Jan
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
Nov
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Toronto housing – YoY price increases
HPI Composite 416 Average Price

4. 416 HPI - Composite
(MLS® Home Price Index: Composite uses fixed weighting of all underlying benchmark homes,
including freeholds and condos)
century21.ca/scott.ingram
Sep vs. ‘16: $97K
Sep vs. ‘12: $283K (56%)
5 year avg. annual growth: 9.3%
- In first period of decline since Jul-Sep 2014
- HPI lower than 416 Sep avg price of $810K after 3
months of being higher
- NB: The percentage numbers above may not match
percentage change you would calculate from the
numbers at left. Numbers at left were taken from
static reports at time of issue and some percentages
at right are be based off restated prior year numbers
(when adjustments to benchmark homes or
composite weighting are made).
617 621 634 647
666 676 682 685 691
706 714 720
720
737
779
817 830 830
808
790 788
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
$000s 416 HPI Benchmark - Composite
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
8.4% 8.6%
9.3% 9.9%
11.7%
12.7%
13.4%13.5%13.8%
15.8%
16.5%
17.6%
18.9%
19.9%
24.1%
27.7%
26.1%
24.2%
20.1%
16.7%
15.3%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
YoY Δ 416 HPI Benchmark - Composite
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

5. 416 HPI Composite vs. Components
(MLS® Home Price Index: Composite uses fixed weighting of all underlying benchmark homes,
including freeholds and condos)
century21.ca/scott.ingram
15.3%
6.6%
8.7%
18.0%
26.0%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Jan
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
Nov
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
416 housing – YoY HPI benchmark price increases
HPI Composite SF Detached SF Attached Townhouse Apartment
As you would expect, the HPI Composite sits in between its component benchmarks.
Notably, this is the first time since the launch in 2012 that apartments are above single family
detached houses.

6. 416 HPI – Single Family Detached
(MLS® Home Price Index uses a benchmark with attributes typical for the area, and tracks the value
of that basket of attributes over time)
century21.ca/scott.ingram
Sep vs. ‘16: $94K
Sep vs. ‘12: $420K (62%)
5 year avg. annual growth: 10.2%
Sep HPI $261K lower than Avg. 416 Detached price
Sep HPI YoY increase is 2.2% higher than average 416
Detached YoY change
876 878
898
924
961
982 989 991 1,000
1,020 1,032 1,039
1,076
1,106
1,172
1,2261,229
1,205
1,146
1,1001,094
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
$000s 416 HPI Benchmark - SF Detached
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
11.3%
10.5%11.1%
12.3%
15.3%
17.1%17.2%17.3%17.3%
19.2%
20.0%20.2%
21.7%
23.3%
27.7%
29.7%
24.8%
19.8%
13.1%
8.2%
6.6%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
YoY Δ 416 HPI Benchmark - SF Detached
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

7. 416 HPI – Single Family Attached
(MLS® Home Price Index uses a benchmark with attributes typical for the area, and tracks the value
of that basket of attributes over time)
century21.ca/scott.ingram
Sep vs. ‘16: $88K
Sep vs. ‘12: $310K (62%)
5 year avg. annual growth: 9.5%
680 689 702
718
745
760 764 762 762
779 791 799
820 834
878
920 928 919
879
850 845
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
$000s 416 HPI Benchmark - SF Attached
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
8.8% 9.3%
10.3%
11.3%
13.4%
14.9% 15.1% 15.1% 14.9%
16.6%
17.4%
18.1%
18.4%18.6%
22.5%
25.1%
22.1%
18.6%
12.9%
9.3% 8.7%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
YoY Δ 416 HPI Benchmark - SF Attached
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
SF Attached includes freehold semi-detached and
rowhouses.

8. 416 HPI – Townhouse
(MLS® Home Price Index uses a benchmark with attributes typical for the area, and tracks the value
of that basket of attributes over time)
century21.ca/scott.ingram
Sep vs. ‘16: $115K
Sep vs. ‘12: $254K (69%)
5 year avg. annual growth: 11.0%
Townhouse includes condo townhouses. “Owners
typically pay co-ownership fees for maintenance and
enjoy exclusive access to a part of the lot”
455 453 465 474
490 494 501 509 515 524 531 534
543 543
568
602
628 631 633 624
609
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
$000s 416 HPI Benchmark - Townhouse
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
10.1% 9.5%
10.5%
11.8%
13.4%13.4%13.3%
14.7%
15.9%
17.5%
18.5%
19.4%
20.7%
18.6%
21.3%
26.1%
27.1%27.0%26.5%
22.9%
18.0%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
YoY Δ 416 HPI Benchmark - Townhouse
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

9. 416 HPI – Apartment
(MLS® Home Price Index uses a benchmark with attributes typical for the area, and tracks the value
of that basket of attributes over time)
century21.ca/scott.ingram
Sep vs. ‘16: $103K
Sep vs. ‘12: $1684K (54%)
5 year avg. annual growth: 9.1%
Apartment includes condo apartments
- The 2016 and 2017 growth rates are very out of
character
346 349 355 359 364 366 371 375 380 388 392 397
405 417
441
464 478 485 481 478 480
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
$000s 416 HPI Benchmark - Apartment
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
4.9%
5.9%
6.8% 6.4% 6.9% 7.2%
8.5% 8.9%
10.0%
12.0%
12.9%
14.8%
18.0%
19.4%
24.0%
29.2%
31.0%
32.2%
29.4%
27.4%
26.0%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
YoY Δ 416 HPI Benchmark - Apartment
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

10. Your home is the single largest investment you'll make — trust it with an accountant.
I take a “Moneyball” approach to real estate, believing in the importance of both
quantitative and qualitative trends – especially in this rapidly shifting real estate market.
After having built up 20 years of trust as an accountant in Toronto's art and music
communities, I now combine my analytical skills and business savvy with my hometown
knowledge and passion to help people like you find their next home. I work with the
venerable CENTURY 21 brand at the Regal Realty Inc. brokerage on Queen St. West.
@areacode416 century21.ca/scott.ingram
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