Presentation to the Waller EDC July 2014

1. Metrostudy
Waller County EDP Presentation
July 10, 2014

2. Metrostudy, a Hanley Wood Company Market Coverage
 Metrostudy, a Hanley Wood Company 2014 | July 10, 2014 |Waller County EDP Presentation 2

3. Houston Economy

4. Houston Economy
Trailing 12 months job growth
Source: BLS
89,757
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
 Metrostudy, a Hanley Wood Company 2014 | July 10, 2014 |Waller County EDP Presentation 4

5. Houston Economy
MSA – Annual Job Growth: 2014 Estimate
Source: BLS, Moody’s Analytics
 Metrostudy, a Hanley Wood Company 2014 | July 10, 2014 |Waller County EDP Presentation 5

6. Houston Economy
Annual Job Growth by Sector: March 2014
Sector Change
Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities +20,300
Government +11,200
Retail Trade +11,100
Accomodation and Food Services +10,100
Professional and Business Services +8,500
Manufacturing +6,900
Construction +5,800
Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities +5,600
Mining and Logging +5,200
Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities +4,100
Educational Services +2,800
Other Services +2,500
Real estate and Rental and Leasing +1,800
Information +900
Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation +300
Finance and Insurance -300
 Metrostudy, a Hanley Wood Company 2014 | July 10, 2014 |Waller County EDP Presentation 6

7. Houston
47.7%
Dallas
22.9%
Austin
13.7%
San Antonio
8.1%
OKC
3.2%
New
Orleans
2.1%
Nashville
1.8%
Salt Lake
0.4%
Only 9 MSAs (of largest 60) have
created net new middle class
jobs since 2007.
48% were in Houston.
 Metrostudy, a Hanley Wood Company 2014 | July 10, 2014 |Waller County EDP Presentation 7
Houston Economy
We Make Middle Class Jobs

8. Source: Gallup, December 2013
40% of the population in 10
states wants to move in the next
12 months
Houston
State Residents Likely to Move within the Year
 Metrostudy, a Hanley Wood Company 2014 | July 10, 2014 |Waller County EDP Presentation 8

9. Houston Economy
Oil Trend – Monthly Spot Price
Forecast
2014: $96.21 2015: $93.87
Source: Energy Information Administration
 Metrostudy, a Hanley Wood Company 2014 | July 10, 2014 |Waller County EDP Presentation 9

10. Houston Economy
Annual International Demand for Oil
Source: IEA
 Metrostudy, a Hanley Wood Company 2014 | July 10, 2014 |Waller County EDP Presentation 10

11. Houston Economy
Annual Growth in Oil Use, 2003-2012, Largest Countries
 Metrostudy, a Hanley Wood Company 2014 | July 10, 2014 |Waller County EDP Presentation 11
27.2%
42.1%
-3.2% -3.9%
19.6%
15.4%
18.3% 17.8%
-4.6%
9.8%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50% These are projected to be the 10 most
populous countries in 2050, comprising
52% of world population.
Source: US Energy Information Administration, UN World Population Prospects 2012 Revision

12. 0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Office Industrial Retail
 Metrostudy, a Hanley Wood Company 2014 | July 10, 2014 |National Economic Overview 12
Houston Economy
Commercial SF Delivered

13. 11,338,154
619,370 635,182
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
Office Industrial Retail
 Metrostudy, a Hanley Wood Company 2014 | July 10, 2014 |National Economic Overview 13
Houston Economy
Commercial SF Under Construction

14. Houston Existing Home Market

15. Houston
Single Family Home Sales - MLS
 Metrostudy, a Hanley Wood Company 2014 | July 10, 2014 |Waller County EDP Presentation 15

16. Houston
MLS Months of Supply
 Metrostudy, a Hanley Wood Company 2014 | July 10, 2014 |Waller County EDP Presentation 16

17. Houston
Home Price Appreciation vs. MLS Months of Supply
 Metrostudy, a Hanley Wood Company 2014 | July 10, 2014 |Waller County EDP Presentation 17

18. Houston
20% increase in Listing Prices over Last Year
Source: Zillow, May 2014
 Metrostudy, a Hanley Wood Company 2014 | July 10, 2014 |Waller County EDP Presentation 18

19. 0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Nominal HPI
Real HPI
Real HPI Peak:
3Q77 – 278.7
Current HPI:
4Q13 – 206.9
Source: Quarterly House Price Index – Purchase Only, Federal Housing Finance Administration, 1Q14
Real home prices
Still 34% below 1977
peak
Houston
Real vs. Nominal Home Price Index
 Metrostudy, a Hanley Wood Company 2014 | July 10, 2014 |Waller County EDP Presentation 19

20.  Metrostudy, a Hanley Wood Company 2014 | July 10, 2014 |National Economic Overview 20
Houston
Distribution of Annual Starts by Price

21. Houston New Home Market

22. Houston New Home Market
Annual Starts and Closings Trends
 Metrostudy, a Hanley Wood Company 2014 | July 10, 2014 |Waller County EDP Presentation 22

23.  Metrostudy, a Hanley Wood Company 2014 | July 10, 2014 |National Economic Overview 23
Houston
More Houses Built than California
vs

24. #3 The Woodlands
641 Starts
#2 Cinco Ranch
733 Starts
#1 Riverstone
756 Starts
#9 Pine Mill Ranch
379 Starts
#7 Sienna Plantation
420 Starts
#8 Canyon Gate West
388 Starts
#6 Woodforest
441 Starts
#5 Cross Creek Ranch
465 Starts
#4 Aliana
470 Starts
#10 Firethorne
364 Starts
6 of nation’s top 15 selling
MPCs are in Houston.

25. Houston Lot Trends

26. Houston Lot Trends
Vacant Developed Lots
1Q 2008 Peak: 72,985
1Q 2014:
37,724
 Metrostudy, a Hanley Wood Company 2014 | July 10, 2014 |Waller County EDP Presentation 26

27. Houston Lot Trends
Lot Delivery vs. Absorption
 Metrostudy, a Hanley Wood Company 2014 | July 10, 2014 |Waller County EDP Presentation 27

28. Houston Lot Trends
Future Lot Detail
 Metrostudy, a Hanley Wood Company 2014 | July 10, 2014 |Waller County EDP Presentation 28

29. 13,400.10
10,301.80
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
2005-Q1
2005-Q3
2006-Q1
2006-Q3
2007-Q1
2007-Q3
2008-Q1
2008-Q3
2009-Q1
2009-Q3
2010-Q1
2010-Q3
2011-Q1
2011-Q3
2012-Q1
2012-Q3
2013-Q1
2013-Q3
2014-Q1
Houston Lot Trends
Acres Sold
 Metrostudy, a Hanley Wood Company 2014 | July 10, 2014 |Waller County EDP Presentation 29

30. 490.98
4,066.54
1,373.91
710.15
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
Acres
30
Houston Lot Trends
Grand Parkway Land Sales
 Metrostudy, a Hanley Wood Company 2014 | July 10, 2014 |Waller County EDP Presentation

31. Houston
Lot Delivery vs. Absorption
 Metrostudy, a Hanley Wood Company 2014 | July 10, 2014 |Waller County EDP Presentation 31

32. West Houston Employment Growth

33. www.MetrostudyReport.com
 Metrostudy, a Hanley Wood Company 2014 | July 10, 2014 |Waller County EDP Presentation 33

34. www.MetrostudyReport.com
 Metrostudy, a Hanley Wood Company 2014 | July 10, 2014 |Waller County EDP Presentation 34

35. www.MetrostudyReport.com
 Metrostudy, a Hanley Wood Company 2014 | July 10, 2014 |Waller County EDP Presentation 35

36. www.MetrostudyReport.com
 Metrostudy, a Hanley Wood Company 2014 | July 10, 2014 |Waller County EDP Presentation 36

37. www.MetrostudyReport.com
 Metrostudy, a Hanley Wood Company 2014 | July 10, 2014 |Waller County EDP Presentation 37

38.  Metrostudy, a Hanley Wood Company 2014 | July 10, 2014 |Waller County EDP Presentation 38
West Houston Employment Growth
Office Building Construction
Status Buildings RBA (SF) Pot. Workers
Proposed 54 8,004,555 53,364
Under Construction 27 4,792,748 31,952
Grand Total 81 12,797,303 85,315

39. Waller County Transactions

40. 0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
Acres
 Metrostudy, a Hanley Wood Company 2014 | July 10, 2014 |Waller County EDP Presentation 40
Houston
Waller County Land Transactions

41. Houston
Waller EDC Summary
• Job growth will remain strong in the Houston area
• Existing home sales market remains very tight citywide
• Many areas of the city, including Waller County, should
see price appreciation this year
• Although prices are higher, they are still historically low
• We’re selling a lot of land right now but our lot supply is
still low
• West Houston job growth and office development favors
growth in Waller County
 Metrostudy, a Hanley Wood Company 2014 | July 10, 2014 |Waller County EDP Presentation 41

42. 3Q11 © Copyright Metrostudy 2011© Copyright Metrostudy 20122Q12
Thank You

43. 51.0% 51.5%
49.2%
53.7%
61.2%
59.7%
56.7%
61.8%
50.5%
57.2%
63.1% 63.3%
71.2%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Source: Kinder Houston Area Survey, 2014
Houston
Where Suburban Residents Want to Live