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Problem 1

                  Activity   Predecessor Successor
                     A                 -       D,E
                     B                 -        F
                     C              -          G,H
                     D              A           F
                     E              A           J
                     F             B,D          J
                     G              C           J
                     H              C           I
                     I              H           -
                     J            E,F,G            -

                        AOA Network




                     2
                              E
          A
                                                           J
                    D                          5                   7
                                                                       START
  1                                F
              B                                                I
                     3
      C                            G                   6

                                           H



                         4
AON Network


          A               E

                      D
START
         B                    F
                                      J
                                              END
                      G
         C                        H       I
Problem 2

                    Activity   Predecessor Successor
                       a              -             c,f
                       b              -             d,e
                       c              a              h
                       d              b              h
                       e              b              h
                       f              a              i
                       g              b              i
                       h            c,d,e            i
                       i            f,g,h            -

                        AOA Network


                                                                6
                                                f

                                                        h
                       2                                            i
                                c
                a                           5
                                                            g
                                                                        7
        1

                                     d
                       3
            b

                           e


                           4




                        AON Network


                           a                                    f

                                                    c
START
                        d                                       h           END
                                                                    i

                                                    e
                           b                                    g
In the AOA Network representation a dummy task has to be
incorporated into the network to allow for two predecessors
of the task e. No such requirement is found in the AON
representation. It appears that an AON representation is
much easier than AOA.
Problem 7

                                                         Duration - 3 estimates
                                                                Most
                                                    Optimistic  Likely    Pessimistic
                           Activity     Predecessor  (months) (months) (months)
                              a                -                 2            4              9
                              b                -                 2            3              8
                              c                b                 4            7              14
                              d                a                 4            5              16
                              e                b                 5            7              12
                              f               c,d                2            4              8
                              g               c,d                6            8              14
                              h               e,f                6            7              14
                              i               g,h                2            3              9

                                         Estimated
               (a)         Activity        Time               Variance       S.D.
                              a              4.50              1.361         1.17
                              b              3.67              1.000         1.00
                              c              7.67              2.778         1.67
                              d              6.67              4.000         2.00
                              e              7.50              1.361         1.17
                              f              4.33              1.000         1.00
                              g              8.67              1.778         1.33
                              h              8.00              1.778         1.33
                              I              3.83              1.361         1.17

               (b)                AOA Network


      a:4.50         2
                          d:6.67

1                                                              g:8.67                             i:3.83
                                         4                                             6
                         c:7.67
                                                     f:4.33
    b:3.67
                 3                                                       5          h:8.00
                                        e:7.50



                                         Estimated
               (c)          Path           Time               Variance       S.D.
    3.83                  1-2-4-6-7          23.67               8.500       2.92
    0.17                 1-2-4-5-6-7         27.33               9.500       3.08
27.50          1-3-4-5-6-7   27.50    7.917     2.81
 3.67           1-3-4-6-7    23.83    6.917     2.63
 4.50           1-3-5-6-7    23.00    5.500     2.35

              From the above table we see that the critical path is 1-2-4-
              5-6-7 and the nearly critical path is 1-3-4-5-6-7



        (d)   Due date D =                                     36
              Estimated time T =                            27.50
              Standard Deviation                       3     2.81
              Standard normal variate =                  3.020979
              Probability of completion in 40
              months =                                        99.87

        (e)   Probability of completion   =                     0.8
              Standard normal variate =                       0.842
              Estimated time T =                       2      27.33
              SD =                                             3.08
              Due date D =                                    29.93


        (f)   For reduction in the project duration, activities on the
              critical path can be reviewed for crashing options.The firm
              must investigate methods that enables it to reduce the
              variance of some of the activities on the critical path.



        (g)   The probability of completion in 36 months, on the near
              critical path is :
              Due date D =                                       36
              Estimated time T =                              27.33
              Standard Deviation                               3.08
              Standard normal variate =                    2.811838
              Probability of completion in 36
              months =                                        99.75

              It is interesting to note that a near-critical path can
              potentially bring down the probability of completion
              compared to a critical path due to high path variance.
              Therefore the notion of an official critical path in PERT
              is not the same as in a CPM method.
What-if ??




               Change the activity
             durations to assess the
                      impact




i:3.83
         7
ritical path is 1-2-4-   This observation does not hold if you change the
1-3-4-5-6-7                             activity durations.



        months
        months




        %



        months

        months


 activities on the
hing options.The firm
it to reduce the
the critical path.



nths, on the near


        months
        months




        %

critical path can
 of completion
h path variance.
itical path in PERT
Problem 8

                                           Normal        Crash
                                           Duration    Duration Normal      Crash
               Activity    Predecessor      (weeks)     (weeks) Cost (Rs.) Cost (Rs.)
                  a               -             6             5              10,000               15,000
                  b               -             4             3              12,000               14,000
                  c               a             5            n.a.            16,000              n.a.
                  d               b             3            n.a.            18,000              n.a.
                  e               c             4             2              11,000               17,000
                  f               d             4             2              24,000               32,000
                  g               c             4             3              12,000               18,000
                  h               d             9             6              50,000               68,000
                  i              e,f            2            n.a.            16,000              n.a.
                  j             g,h,i           3             2              10,000               11,000

            Indirect cost for the project per week (Rs.)                      6,000



                   AON Network                                                                    4
                                                                                             g


                                           a:                           c
                                                                                             e
                                           6                            5

             START                                                                       4


                                                                                             f
                                           b                            d                    4
                                           4                        3
                                                                                             h
                                                                                     9




            We evaluate our options by the
            following table:

                                             Crash         Normal        Crash             Max.
                           Normal Time       Time          Cost NC      Cost CC          Crashing
               Activity      (Weeks)        (Weeks)         (Rs.)         (Rs.)           (Weeks)
                  a              6              5           10,000          15,000                1
b               4          3        12,000    14,000       1
            c               5         n.a.      16,000     n.a.        0
            d               3         n.a.      18,000     n.a.        0
            e               4          2        11,000    17,000       2
            f               4          2        24,000    32,000       2
            g               4          3        12,000    18,000       1
            h               9          6        50,000    68,000       3
            i               2         n.a.      16,000     n.a.        0
            j               3          2        10,000    11,000       1

       Sum of the normal costs for all the activities in the above table con
       the direct cost without crashing
       The indirect cost is @ Rs. 6000 per week charged for the project dura
       weeks


                     Crashable                   No. of
                    Activities on   Activitiy   weeks     Direct    Project
           No.      Critical path   Crashed     crashed    Cost     Duration
            1       a,c,e,i,j        None          0      179,000     20
            2       a,c,e,i            j           1      180,000     19
            3       a,c,i             e            2      186,000     17
            4       c,i               a            1      191,000     16

       Therefore we find the optimum cost to be (Rs.)
       Savings obtained by crashing activities (Rs.)
PREVIOUS SOLUTION
What-if ??

                    Change the cost
                structure to assess the
                         impact




                3
  2

  i         j                 FINISH




Crashing
Cost/week
  5000
2000
            n.a.
            n.a.
           3000
           4000
           6000
           6000
            n.a.
           1000

in the above table constitutes

ed for the project duration of 20




        Indirect Cost Total Cost
          120,000      299,000
          114,000      294,000
          102,000      288,000
          96,000       287,000

         287,000
           12,000
                                   NEXT SOLUTION

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Problem 8: Crashing a project network

  • 1. Problem 1 Activity Predecessor Successor A - D,E B - F C - G,H D A F E A J F B,D J G C J H C I I H - J E,F,G - AOA Network 2 E A J D 5 7 START 1 F B I 3 C G 6 H 4
  • 2. AON Network A E D START B F J END G C H I
  • 3. Problem 2 Activity Predecessor Successor a - c,f b - d,e c a h d b h e b h f a i g b i h c,d,e i i f,g,h - AOA Network 6 f h 2 i c a 5 g 7 1 d 3 b e 4 AON Network a f c START d h END i e b g
  • 4. In the AOA Network representation a dummy task has to be incorporated into the network to allow for two predecessors of the task e. No such requirement is found in the AON representation. It appears that an AON representation is much easier than AOA.
  • 5. Problem 7 Duration - 3 estimates Most Optimistic Likely Pessimistic Activity Predecessor (months) (months) (months) a - 2 4 9 b - 2 3 8 c b 4 7 14 d a 4 5 16 e b 5 7 12 f c,d 2 4 8 g c,d 6 8 14 h e,f 6 7 14 i g,h 2 3 9 Estimated (a) Activity Time Variance S.D. a 4.50 1.361 1.17 b 3.67 1.000 1.00 c 7.67 2.778 1.67 d 6.67 4.000 2.00 e 7.50 1.361 1.17 f 4.33 1.000 1.00 g 8.67 1.778 1.33 h 8.00 1.778 1.33 I 3.83 1.361 1.17 (b) AOA Network a:4.50 2 d:6.67 1 g:8.67 i:3.83 4 6 c:7.67 f:4.33 b:3.67 3 5 h:8.00 e:7.50 Estimated (c) Path Time Variance S.D. 3.83 1-2-4-6-7 23.67 8.500 2.92 0.17 1-2-4-5-6-7 27.33 9.500 3.08
  • 6. 27.50 1-3-4-5-6-7 27.50 7.917 2.81 3.67 1-3-4-6-7 23.83 6.917 2.63 4.50 1-3-5-6-7 23.00 5.500 2.35 From the above table we see that the critical path is 1-2-4- 5-6-7 and the nearly critical path is 1-3-4-5-6-7 (d) Due date D = 36 Estimated time T = 27.50 Standard Deviation 3 2.81 Standard normal variate = 3.020979 Probability of completion in 40 months = 99.87 (e) Probability of completion = 0.8 Standard normal variate = 0.842 Estimated time T = 2 27.33 SD = 3.08 Due date D = 29.93 (f) For reduction in the project duration, activities on the critical path can be reviewed for crashing options.The firm must investigate methods that enables it to reduce the variance of some of the activities on the critical path. (g) The probability of completion in 36 months, on the near critical path is : Due date D = 36 Estimated time T = 27.33 Standard Deviation 3.08 Standard normal variate = 2.811838 Probability of completion in 36 months = 99.75 It is interesting to note that a near-critical path can potentially bring down the probability of completion compared to a critical path due to high path variance. Therefore the notion of an official critical path in PERT is not the same as in a CPM method.
  • 7. What-if ?? Change the activity durations to assess the impact i:3.83 7
  • 8. ritical path is 1-2-4- This observation does not hold if you change the 1-3-4-5-6-7 activity durations. months months % months months activities on the hing options.The firm it to reduce the the critical path. nths, on the near months months % critical path can of completion h path variance. itical path in PERT
  • 9. Problem 8 Normal Crash Duration Duration Normal Crash Activity Predecessor (weeks) (weeks) Cost (Rs.) Cost (Rs.) a - 6 5 10,000 15,000 b - 4 3 12,000 14,000 c a 5 n.a. 16,000 n.a. d b 3 n.a. 18,000 n.a. e c 4 2 11,000 17,000 f d 4 2 24,000 32,000 g c 4 3 12,000 18,000 h d 9 6 50,000 68,000 i e,f 2 n.a. 16,000 n.a. j g,h,i 3 2 10,000 11,000 Indirect cost for the project per week (Rs.) 6,000 AON Network 4 g a: c e 6 5 START 4 f b d 4 4 3 h 9 We evaluate our options by the following table: Crash Normal Crash Max. Normal Time Time Cost NC Cost CC Crashing Activity (Weeks) (Weeks) (Rs.) (Rs.) (Weeks) a 6 5 10,000 15,000 1
  • 10. b 4 3 12,000 14,000 1 c 5 n.a. 16,000 n.a. 0 d 3 n.a. 18,000 n.a. 0 e 4 2 11,000 17,000 2 f 4 2 24,000 32,000 2 g 4 3 12,000 18,000 1 h 9 6 50,000 68,000 3 i 2 n.a. 16,000 n.a. 0 j 3 2 10,000 11,000 1 Sum of the normal costs for all the activities in the above table con the direct cost without crashing The indirect cost is @ Rs. 6000 per week charged for the project dura weeks Crashable No. of Activities on Activitiy weeks Direct Project No. Critical path Crashed crashed Cost Duration 1 a,c,e,i,j None 0 179,000 20 2 a,c,e,i j 1 180,000 19 3 a,c,i e 2 186,000 17 4 c,i a 1 191,000 16 Therefore we find the optimum cost to be (Rs.) Savings obtained by crashing activities (Rs.) PREVIOUS SOLUTION
  • 11. What-if ?? Change the cost structure to assess the impact 3 2 i j FINISH Crashing Cost/week 5000
  • 12. 2000 n.a. n.a. 3000 4000 6000 6000 n.a. 1000 in the above table constitutes ed for the project duration of 20 Indirect Cost Total Cost 120,000 299,000 114,000 294,000 102,000 288,000 96,000 287,000 287,000 12,000 NEXT SOLUTION