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DRAFT
00Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist0
The Labor Market Situation
June 10, 2013
Dr. Jennifer Hunt
Chief Economist
US Department of Labor
Office of the Chief Economist
DRAFT
11Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist1
Steady job growth since February 2010
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics Program
Over-the-month change, in thousands
• May: 178
• April: 157
• March: 154
12-month change, in thousands
• May 2012 to May 2013: 2,173
DRAFT
22Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist2
Steady unemployment decline since end 2009
DRAFT
33Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist3
Professional & Business Services led job growth
(again) this month
DRAFT
44Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist4
Since the end of the recession, many industries have
not recovered their employment losses
DRAFT
55Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist5
Long-term unemployed share falling
DRAFT
66Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist6
Problem is not layoffs, but low hiring rate
DRAFT
77Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist7
A Quick look at Consumption
Trends Post-Recession
Office of the Chief Economist
DRAFT
88Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist8
Consumption and disposable income both fell, but
they were offset (slightly) by government transfers
Source: Petev, Ivaylo D., & Pistaferri, Luigi. 2012. Consumption in the Great
Recession. Stanford, CA: Stanford Center on Poverty and Inequality.
BEA, NIPA tables 2.1, 2.3.4, and 2.3.5.
DRAFT
99Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist9
All components of consumption fell in this
recession, and were slow to recover
Source: Petev, Ivaylo D., & Pistaferri, Luigi. 2012. Consumption in the Great
Recession. Stanford, CA: Stanford Center on Poverty and Inequality.
BEA, NIPA tables 2.1, 2.3.4, and 2.3.5.
DRAFT
1010Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist10
Unlike previous cycles, consumption has not
returned to the previous peak, especially for services
Source: Petev, Ivaylo D., & Pistaferri, Luigi. 2012. Consumption in the Great
Recession. Stanford, CA: Stanford Center on Poverty and Inequality.
BEA, NIPA tables 2.1, 2.3.4, and 2.3.5.
DRAFT
1111Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist11
Widespread financial difficulties in 2009, but poor job
market and rising prices main issues for low-income.
Source: Petev, Ivaylo D., & Pistaferri, Luigi. 2012. Consumption in the Great
Recession. Stanford, CA: Stanford Center on Poverty and Inequality.
University of Michigan Survey of Consumer Sentiment
DRAFT
1212Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist12
Thank you!

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Business forward may jobs report

  • 1. DRAFT 00Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist0 The Labor Market Situation June 10, 2013 Dr. Jennifer Hunt Chief Economist US Department of Labor Office of the Chief Economist
  • 2. DRAFT 11Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist1 Steady job growth since February 2010 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics Program Over-the-month change, in thousands • May: 178 • April: 157 • March: 154 12-month change, in thousands • May 2012 to May 2013: 2,173
  • 3. DRAFT 22Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist2 Steady unemployment decline since end 2009
  • 4. DRAFT 33Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist3 Professional & Business Services led job growth (again) this month
  • 5. DRAFT 44Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist4 Since the end of the recession, many industries have not recovered their employment losses
  • 6. DRAFT 55Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist5 Long-term unemployed share falling
  • 7. DRAFT 66Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist6 Problem is not layoffs, but low hiring rate
  • 8. DRAFT 77Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist7 A Quick look at Consumption Trends Post-Recession Office of the Chief Economist
  • 9. DRAFT 88Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist8 Consumption and disposable income both fell, but they were offset (slightly) by government transfers Source: Petev, Ivaylo D., & Pistaferri, Luigi. 2012. Consumption in the Great Recession. Stanford, CA: Stanford Center on Poverty and Inequality. BEA, NIPA tables 2.1, 2.3.4, and 2.3.5.
  • 10. DRAFT 99Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist9 All components of consumption fell in this recession, and were slow to recover Source: Petev, Ivaylo D., & Pistaferri, Luigi. 2012. Consumption in the Great Recession. Stanford, CA: Stanford Center on Poverty and Inequality. BEA, NIPA tables 2.1, 2.3.4, and 2.3.5.
  • 11. DRAFT 1010Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist10 Unlike previous cycles, consumption has not returned to the previous peak, especially for services Source: Petev, Ivaylo D., & Pistaferri, Luigi. 2012. Consumption in the Great Recession. Stanford, CA: Stanford Center on Poverty and Inequality. BEA, NIPA tables 2.1, 2.3.4, and 2.3.5.
  • 12. DRAFT 1111Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist11 Widespread financial difficulties in 2009, but poor job market and rising prices main issues for low-income. Source: Petev, Ivaylo D., & Pistaferri, Luigi. 2012. Consumption in the Great Recession. Stanford, CA: Stanford Center on Poverty and Inequality. University of Michigan Survey of Consumer Sentiment
  • 13. DRAFT 1212Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist12 Thank you!