Three future scenarios for South Africa by Dinokeng

1. 3 FUTURES FOR SOUTH AFRICA Working Draft (v7.1) April 2009

3. DINOKENG PARTICIPANTS Convenors (Members of the Scenario Team) Scenario Team Secretariat Sponsors Mamphela Ramphela Graça Machel Vincent Maphai Rick Menell Njongongkulu Ndungane Bob Head Miriam Altman Frans Baleni Ann Bernstein Nkosinathi Biko Cheryl Carolus Angela Coetzee Ryan Coetzee Paul Hanratty Haniff Hoosen Moemedi Kepadisa Reuel Khoza Kallie Kriel Antjie Krog Mary Malete Daniel Mminele Namhla Mniki Aaron Motsoaledi Jay Naidoo Yogan Naidoo Maite Nkoana-Mashabane Thandi Nontenja Thami ka Plaatjie Sonja Sebotsa Raenette Taljaard Mathatha Tsedu Sim Tshabalala Musa Zondi Sarah Babb Matt Bland Pippa Green Adam Kahane Itumaleng Mahabane Alayne Mannion Debra Marsden Ishmael Mkhabela Yvonne Muthien Old Mutual and Nedbank WORKING DRAFT

5. DINOKENG PROCESS PHASE I Scenario Team PHASE II Citizens and leaders Diverging Emerging Converging Workshops, research and writing Private engagement with key stakeholders Broad public engagement 08/2008 05/2009 WORKING DRAFT

14. WALK APART: WHAT THE PAPERS SAY No accord yet in sight for crisis group Johannesburg, 2010 Billions more to Public Works Cape Town, 2011 Stellenbosch V-C bows to pressure to go Cape Town, 2012 Public Works millions missing Pretoria, 2012 Commuters stranded after lines bombed, buses torched Johannesburg, 2014 Drugs run dry in Mpumulanga clinic Nelspruit, 2015 Budget 2015: Huge rise in social welfare Cape Town, 2015 Drug trade finds new avenue in face of state failure Richards Bay, 2017 Three dead in battle over “tax” Polokwane, 2017 Big victory claim by ruling party Durban, 2019 35 gunned down in jobs protest Durban, 2020 WORKING DRAFT

17. WALK BEHIND: WHAT THE PAPERS SAY Key ministries to report to DP, to fast-track Skills development Pretoria, 2010 Massive boost for PBMR, Eskom Pretoria, 2011 Business outcry over prescribed assets Johannesburg, 2015 Social grants, UIF get big boost in budget Cape Town, 2012 Breakthrough accord on economy Pretoria, 2014 New bid to recruit skills Cape Town, 2016 Unions threaten clash with government over performance plans Johannesburg, 2017 Budget deficit at highest point since 1994 Cape Town, 2018 Police, residents in battle over social grants Dutywa, 2020 WORKING DRAFT

20. WALK TOGETHER: WHAT THE PAPERS SAY Patients protest drugs shortage Manguzi, 2011 Health is sick, say protesting patients Durban, 2012 Bell tolls on education failures Johannesburg, 2014 Health minister to meet patients’ groups Pretoria, 2013 Pact needed for delivery Cape Town, 2015 Votes battle goes to Concourt Johannesburg, 2018 The birth of the Citizens Charter Johannesburg, 2016 Special Feature WORKING DRAFT

22. COMPARISON OF THE SCENARIOS CAPACITY OF THE STATE Walk Behind 2020 CHARACTER OF CIVIL SOCIETY Ineffective Effective Engaged Disengaged Walk Together 2020 Walk Apart 2020 Corrupt & ineffective state Distrusting & self-protective citizenry Interventionist & directive state Dependent & compliant citizenry Collaborative & enabling state Engaged & active citizenry 2009 WORKING DRAFT