3. Loamy Plains Range Site Description
MLRA 49 & 70
USDA-NRCS-Colorado FOTG
July 1981
4. Sandy Ecological Site Description
MLRA 42
Ecosystem Dynamics Interpretive Tool
June 2019
5. Sandy Ecological Site Description
MLRA 42
Ecosystem Dynamics Interpretive Tool
June 2019
6. Sandy Ecological Site Description
MLRA 42
Ecosystem Dynamics Interpretive Tool
June 2019
How can we capture climate change in the data?
7. Albuquerque Climate 1920-2009
1920-49
1930-59
1940-69
1950-79
1960-89
1970-99 1980-09
1990-19
2000-29
2010-39
2020-49
6.5
7
7.5
8
8.5
9
9.5
10
55.5 56 56.5 57 57.5 58 58.5 59 59.5 60 60.5
Precipitation(“)
Temperature (F)
Western Regional Climate Center
wrcc@dri.edu
Environmental Protection Agency
What climate change may mean
for the Albuquerque region
2014
8. How can we capture climate change in
the STM?
Reference State
(Grassland with scattered
shrubs)
Projected State
(Shrub dominance with
increased bare patches)
Climate Change
Or…
9. How can we capture climate change in
the STM?
Climate Change
10. Factors to consider with projected
climate change…
• Models project linear change, but the “peaks
and valleys” may have a greater impact on
natural resources
• For the Desert Southwest, most models predict
an increase in high-intensity storm events
• High-intensity storm events often serve as
triggers for transitions between ecological
states
• Flooding
• Lightning strike fires
• Climate averages may remain stable, but
seasonality could change
11. Factors to consider with projected
climate change…
• Plant and animal response to climate change may
occur at a different temporal scale than the climate
• Episodic weather events may eliminate certain
species (or at least certain populations)
• In order for plant species to take advantage of
decreased competition, they must have access to
their preferred vectors of spreading
• Wind
• Flooding
• Carrier species (including humans)
• Many plant species have a narrow climate range for
germination, but can tolerate a wider range once
established
• Topography will impact the spread of species
12. Final thoughts…
• Any attempts to model climate change in the
ecological site description must be applicable to
management, both temporally and economically
• NRCS has a relatively new ecological site
database, which will likely be the platform for
displaying and interpreting the state & transition
model
• Ecosystem Dynamics Interpretive Tool
• edit.jornada.nmsu.edu
13. Thank you!
• Questions and /or comments?
• Suggestions for future model / database development
regarding climate change on rangeland, contact:
• Brandon Bestelmeyer
• brandon.Bestelmeyer@ars.usda.gov
• Joel Brown
• joel.brown@usda.gov
• Curtis Talbot
• curtis.talbot@usda.gov
“The findings and conclusions in this presentation are those of the authors
and should not be construed to represent any official USDA or U.S.
Government determination or policy.”
Notas do Editor
GO TO VIEW > MASTER > SLIDE MASTER TO EDIT THE IMAGES ON THE TITLE AND DIVIDER SLIDES
National Ecological Site Handbook specifies that climate is one of the factors that define an ecological site.
However, NESH guidance regarding climate variability is non-existent.
Range site descriptions contained a climatic summary comprised of precipitation and temperature.
Climate section hasn’t changed dramatically in 40 years.
Text has grown longer.
Inclusion of graphs.
Typically based on the last three complete decades of climate data.
Normalizes the extremes.
Backward looking.
Current use of the state & transition model often accounts for climate (weather) variability (usually drought & rainfall patterns on rangeland).
Transitions seldom contain a time reference.
Still does not capture the concept of climate change.
As mentioned earlier, typically based on the last three complete decades of climate data.
We know these data change, but seldom get updated due to limited resources.
If ecological site descriptions were updated every decade, this displays the current and previous six 30-yr time periods based on date from WRCC.
Each decade of data gets represented three times.
The ‘80s were a wet decade across most of the West, responsible for the “spike” in ppt.
The ‘80s were also a cooler decade, getter consistently warmer since then.
Notice the relative distance between the first five datasets, vs. the last seven datasets.
The italicized data points represent projections from EPA.
One possibility is to add a novel state by way of a “climate change” transition.
If this option is accepted, a trigger or threshold must be defined to know when to move to the projected state
Another possibility is to add an entirely new STM to represent projected climate change.
This might be accomplished by looking at ecological sites from adjacent MLRAs or LRUs that represent a similar climate as that projected by climate change models.
For example, Albuquerque currently sits as a transition of the Chihuahuan Desert at its northern extent. Following the EPA model, perhaps we should be projecting STMs from a more central Chihuahuan Desert concept.