2018 SWCS International Annual Conference July 29-August 1, 2018 Albuquerque Convention Center

1. Conservation Up and Down:
Watersheds, Natural Hazards, Cities and
Green Infrastructure
1
John D. Wiener, J.D., Ph.D.
Research Associate, Institute of Behavioral Science
University of Colorado
john.wiener@Colorado.edu
www.Colorado.edu/ibs/eb/wiener
For
Soil and Water Conservation Society
Albuquerque, New Mexico, August 1, 2018
Note: This presentation updates several large heavily-referenced sets of slides posted previously,
with very little duplication. The posted slides are intended to provide quick references and wide
coverage. This presentation as posted will be an update and advancement. The Posting Set for
this presentation is substantially richer than the oral set.

2. This a very selective presentation based
on large literature reviews…
• Presentation really about why cities, water providers, and regional
coalitions should form partnerships for
• Improvement of watersheds, - but given audience and previous papers
this conference, will skip the fire-flood-sediments etc . Problem.
• Conservation of MONEY by cost-effective green infrastructure
• Conservation of agricultural productivity, and restoration of soils in the
best interests of all including urban interests in food security
• And investment of different kinds of resources for these purposes – not
just cash or financial debt.
• Starting off with some of what is at stake with business-as-usual…
• (And using almost all new stuff… see previous postings for far more)
• AND, ALREADY HEARD ABOUT FARMS UNDER THREAT… so skip that…
2

3. Watershed photo by Danil Silantev, Unsplash
Farm photo by Xavi Moll, Unsplash Photos.
Greenway photos from Mecklenburg Cn., NC
https://www.mecknc.gov/ParkandRec/Greenways/Pages/default.aspx
For Colorado, The Urban Drainage and Flood Control District has
Become a national model. https://udfcd.org/ -- Great website!
RATIONALE – see postings at www.Colorado.edu/ibs/eb/wiener for
reviews of what Colorado farmers face, and recommendations for
moving forward.
THE CITY – WHAT’S IN YOUR FLOODPLAIN?
WATERSHED PROTECTION
AG LANDS FOR STORM WATER and
FOOD SECURITY, AMENITY, ETC.
BOTTLENECK AND DAMAGE
OR GREEN INFRASTRUCTURE
AND HIGH RECREATIONAL AND
AMENITY VALUE WITH FLOOD
MANAGEMENT?
A PLEA TO PLANNERS:
Whole Flow Planning!

4. Fire-Flood-Sediments, etc. worsening - already covered this meeting
[Soil and Water Conservation Society July 2018] – trouble in the headwaters
• A premier source: The Wildland Fire Science Center, at the Desert Research Institute: https://www.dri.edu/research-
main/wildland-fire-science-center
• Higuera, P.E., 2015, Taking time to consider the causes and consequences of large wildfires. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 112(43):
13137-13138. www.pnas.org/cgi/10.1073/pnas.1518170112.
• Schoennagel, T., Balch, J. K., Brenkert-Smith, H., Dennison, P. E., Harvey, B. J., Krawchuk, M. A., Mietkiewicz, N., Morgan, P., Moritz, M. A., Rasker, R.,
Turner, M. G., and Whitlock, C. 2017. Adapt to more wildfire in western North American forests as climate changes. Proceedings of the National Academy of
Sciences (USA), 114 (18): 4582–4590.
• McKenzie, D. and J.S. Littell, 2017, Climate Change and the Eco-hydrology of Fire: Will Are Burned increase in a Warming Western USA? Ecological
Applications 27(1): 26-36.
• Harris, R.M.B., T.A. Remenyi, G.J. Williamson, N.L. Bindodd, and D.M.J.S. Bowman, 2016, Climate-Vegetation-Fire Interactions and Feedbacks: Trivial Detail
or Major Barrier to Projecting the Future of the Earth System? WIREs Clim Change 2016, 7:910–931. doi: 10.1002/wcc.428
• Abotzoglou, J.T. and A.P. Williams, 2015, Impact of anthropogenic climate change on wildfire across western US forests. Proceedings of the National
Academy of Sciences 113(42): 11770-11775. www.pnas.org/cgi/10.1073/pnas.165071711113.
• Harvey, B.J., 2016, Human-caused climate change is now a key driver of forest fire activity in the Western United States. Proceedings of the National
Academy of Sciences 113(42): 11648-11650. www.pnas.org/cgi/10.1073/pnas.1612926113.
• California and West records of 2016 broken by 2017; broken in 2018?
• Almost 100 fires burning in US as of 31 July; 17 in California (National Public Radio, 31 July
18 “Morning Edition”.
• BUT, major cities are using water rates to finance headwaters improvements (Earth
Economics – EarthEconomics.org) 4

5. Green Infrastructure/Nature-Based
Solutions…• Earth Economics, 2016, Updated: Communicating and Investing in Natural Capital
Using Water Rates factsheet. 16 large providers use water rates for watershed
improvement…
• Green Infrastructure/nature-based solutions are often far more cost-effective than
“grey” infrastructure (concrete, levees, channelizing…) because of lower capital and
O&M costs, and often huge co-benefits. (Tax, amenity, recreation, paths…)
• Kousky and Walls 2014: CO-BENEFITS OF GREEN INFRASTRUCTURE (greenway/flood plain study) were
>> avoided damages!
• (Kousky, C., and Walls, M. (2014). Floodplain conservation as a flood mitigation strategy: Examining costs and benefits.
Ecological Economics. 104: 119-128.)
• http://www.eartheconomics.org/all-publications/2016/5/20/updated-factsheet-communicating-and-investing-in-natural-capital-using-water-rates (accessed 12 Jun 16)
• Multihazard Mitigation Council (2017) Natural Hazard Mitigation Saves 2017 Interim Report: An Independent Study. Principal Investigator Porter, K.; co-Principal
Investigators Scawthorn, C.; Dash, N.; Santos, J.; Investigators: Eguchi, M., Ghosh., S., Huyck, C., Isteita, M., Mickey, K., Rashed, T.;P. Schneider, Director, MMC. National
Institute of Building Sciences, Washington. https://www.fema.gov/natural-hazard-mitigation-saves-2017-interim-report
• Deryugina, Tatyana, 2016, The Fiscal Cost of Hurricanes: Disaster Aid Versus Social Insurance. Working Paper 22272. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic
Research: http://www.nber/org/papers/w22272. Kousky, C., and Walls, M. (2014). Floodplain conservation as a flood mitigation strategy: Examining costs and benefits.
Ecological Economics. 104: 119-128
• Regional Green Infrastructure Planning at the Landscape Scale: APA Green Paper (9 pp); 2016. https://www.planning.org/nationalcenters/green/regionalgreen/
• Harnik, Peter, and Abby Martin. 2016. “City Parks, Clean Water: Making Great Places Using Green Infrastructure.” The Trust for Public Land. March. Available at:
http://tinyurl.com/hb8mfdy.
• American Planning Association, 2015, AICP Symposium: Green Stormwater Infrastructure. By Rouse, David, Paula Conolly, Bethany Bezak, and Mathy Stanislaus. Podcast
and 2 pdf files of presentations by Conolly and Bezak. https://www.planning.org/aicp/symposium/2015/
5

6. For stormwater management, Green Infrastructure capital and O&M costs may be very economical
even without counting co-benefits, which can be quite significant and serve many social purposes.
Trust for Public Land, 2016, City Parks, Clean Water: Making Great
Places Using Green Infrastructure. Box 6: p 20; Box 10: p 41.
https://www.tpl.org/sites/default/files/City%20Parks%20Clean%20Water%20report_0.pdf
NOTE: because of different functions and case specifics, it appears very difficult
to generalize about costs per volume of water/held/detained-for-how-long. But
clearly, the green alternative is increasingly chosen during fiscally hard times.
(Presenter’s comment.)
6

7. Multihazard Mitigation Council (2017) Natural Hazard Mitigation Saves 2017 Interim Report:
An Independent Study. Principal Investigator Porter, K.; co-Principal Investigators Scawthorn, C.;
Dash, N.; Santos, J.; Investigators: Eguchi, M., Ghosh., S., Huyck, C., Isteita, M., Mickey, K.,
Rashed, T.;P. Schneider, Director, MMC. National Institute of Building Sciences, Washington.
Table from P. 1. https://www.fema.gov/natural-hazard-mitigation-saves-2017-interim-report
7
Flood Mitigation – New and
important report

8. Sampling of cities using Green Infrastructure for stormwater
capture – 2014.
(Many many more now!)
Trust for Public Land, 2016, City Parks, Clean Water: Making Great
Places Using Green Infrastructure.
https://www.tpl.org/sites/default/files/City%20Parks%20Clean%20Water%20report_0.pdf
Very good report to introduce topic of urban stormwater
management, with good case studies.
For larger scale, see: American Planning Association:
Regional Green Infrastructure Planning at the Landscape Scale:
APA Green Paper (9 pp); 2016.
https://www.planning.org/nationalcenters/green/regionalgreen/
8

9. https://www.ers.usda.gov/amber-waves/2018/march/examining-consolidation-in-us-agriculture/
From March 2018 issue of Amber Waves,
USDA.
We are losing the small and medium
commercial farms… The ones most
likely to diversify and to participate in
conservation programs.
(Skipping Farms Under Threat since
so well covered already)
Meanwhile, back at the farm… big trouble!

10. https://www.ers.usda.gov/amber-waves/2018/march/examining-consolidation-in-us-agriculture/
Examining Consolidation in U.S. Agriculture. MacDonald, James M. and Robert A Hoppe. Amber Waves, March 2018;
links to ERS report: MacDonald, J.M., R.A. Hoppe, and D. Newton, 2018, Three Decades of Consolidation in U.S.
Agriculture. USDA ERS EIB-189. https://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/pub-details/?pubid=88056
Poultry and eggs are rapidly
becoming “contract farming”
in which the farmer has very
little discretion.
Hogs and Fed Cattle are becoming
more and more “CAFO”
(Concentrated Animal Feeding
Operations.)
My own speculation: Beef cows
are not being consolidated
because the feeding stage and
meat packing are very highly
concentrated. The meat business
probably sees no reason to take
over the most risky element of
the business when it already owns
the profitable parts of the supply
chain. 10
Where’s the money going?

11. Schnitkey, G. “Has the Era of Decreasing Per Acre Corn Costs Come to an End?”
farmdoc daily (8):114, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois
at Urbana-Champaign, June 21, 2018.
Permalink: http://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2018/06/era-of-decreasing-per-acre-corn-costs.html
Illinois Corn Farmer Return: net negative on high-
productivity farmland – losing money 2014 through
2018 projection.
THIS MATTERS FOR SMALL AND MEDIUM FARMS
AND IT MATTERS FOR SUCCESSION OF FARMS –
It matters for credit… it matters for local economies…
The decreasing input costs from 2014 to 2017 from
decreasing energy costs were not enough to keep
farmer returns in the black.
Bottom line here: losses in 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, and
projected for 2018…
Now, energy costs are rising so, fertilizer, crop drying,
and fuel and oil prices may soon rise as well…
WHAT WOULD WORK BETTER?
11

12. From The Des Moines Register,
22 Jun 2018:
https://www.desmoinesregister.
com/story/money/agriculture
/2018/06/22/iowa-water-
pollution-gulf-mexico-dead-
zone-nitrogren-missouri-
mississippi-river-quality-
nirtate/697370002/ --
Note: use this URL to access,
Despite misspelling of nitrate.
WHY MENTION THIS?
Because, as Iowa Environmental
Council said, the voluntary
approach is not reducing the
nitrate losses into water and
Ultimately the Gulf of Mexico
Dead Zone.
University of Iowa: Iowa sends
55% of Missouri River N loads… from
3.3% of the total area. Seven times
more nitrates than the rest of the
Missouri R. Basin… CAFOs and tile
drains… 12
DEGRADATION OF LAND AND WATER QUALITY IS VERY REAL IN THE U.S.
[See works from
Environmental
Working Group,
posted earlier,
and USDA CEAP
projects.]

13. Bao, Q. L., E. Nkonya, and A. Mirzabaev. 2016. “Biomass Productivity-Based Mapping of Global Land Degradation Hotspots” (55–84). In
Economics of Land Degradation and Improvement: A Global Assessment for Sustainable Development, edited by E. Nkonya, A. Mirzabaev,
and J. von Braun. Cham, Switzerland: Springer – used in IFPRI Project Note and Discussion Paper, P 11: De Pinto, Alessandro;
Robertson, Richard D.; Begeladze, Salome; Kumar, Chetan; Kwon, Ho Young; Thomas, Timothy S.; Cenacchi, Nicola; and
Koo, Jawoo. 2017. Cropland restoration as an essential component to the forest landscape restoration approach –
Global effects of widescale adoption. IFPRI Discussion Paper 1682. Washington, D.C.
http://ebrary.ifpri.org/cdm/singleitem/collection/p15738coll2/id/131463
Also: https://www.ifpri.org/publication/cropland-restoration-essential-component-forest-landscape-restoration-approach-global
2016 Pub. Used by International Food Policy Research Institute, 2017
Note how
very wide-
spread the
degradation
is – though
this is said
to be an
underestimate
Link to
FAO et al.
2017 on
world hunger
starting to
rise again…
FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO. 2017.
The State of Food Security and Nutrition
in the World 2017. Building resilience
for peace and food security. Rome,
FAO.
http://www.fao.org/state-of-food-
security-nutrition 13
NOTE: GREEN IS NOT GOOD HERE!

14. An international soil note: losing fertility fast!
• There is a large literature on displacement of farming or enlargement onto deforested land (see the
assessments noted above)
• There is less known about the impacts of the farming which is “under-the-radar” displacing traditional
farming: it is very often the least-conserving agriculture – e.g. monocultural palm oil, etc. (See IPES-
Food 2016). (www.ipes-food.org – International Panel of Experts on Sustainable Food Systems)
• Grain (farmlandgrab.org) reports that nearly 30 M Ha/ 75 M A have been “grabbed” in 78 countries and
documented, (far less than has happened) since their original report 8 years ago.
• Another view: DeLong, C., R. Cruse, and J. Wiener, 2015, The Soil Degradation Paradox: Compromising
Our Resources When We Need Them the Most. Sustainability 2015, Vol. 7: 866-879. (doi:
10.3390/su7010866.) (Open Access).
Productivity will be valued much more in the future than it is now, while we are literally eating from the
fossil fuel burn-out…

15. The Big Ag Assessments
Important Overviews of the Agricultural Situation and
Prospects• McIntyre, B.D., et al., Eds., 2009, Global Report: International Assessment of Agricultural
Knowledge, Science and Technology for Development… Available at:
http://www.agassessment.org/).
• National Research Council, 2010, Toward Sustainable Agricultural Systems in the 21st
Century.
Washington, D.C.: National Academies Press.
• Government Office for Science, (United Kingdom), 2011, Foresight: The Future of Food and
Farming; Final Report. http://www.bis.gov.uk/Foresight.
• (Note: Each IPCC report has agriculture treatments, including the Special Report on Weather and
Climate Extremes and each US Global Change Research Program National Climate Assessment
report; USDA Climate Hub Regional Assessments; less vehement about political economy of sectoral
changes needed).
• Brown, M.E., et al. [USDA, NCAR] 2015. Climate Change, Global Food Security, and the U.S. Food
System. 146 pages. Available online at
http://www.usda.gov/oce/climate_change/FoodSecurity2015Assessment/FullAssessment.pdf. (Less
vehement about sectoral changes needed)
• IPES-Food, 2016, From Uniformity to Diversity: A Paradigm Shift from Industrial Agriculture to
Diversified Agroecological Systems. International Panel of Experts on Sustainable Food Systems.
www.ipes-food.org
• Bottom Line: transformational change in conventional ag. needed…

16. Agroecology/Agroforestry… We know what works for soil and
productivity restoration…
• A great introduction: DeLonge, Marcia, 2017, Agroecology to the Rescue: 7 Ways Ecologists are
Working Toward Healthier Food Systems. 02 Aug 17. Union of Concerned Scientists. https://
blog.ucsusa.org/marcia-delonge/agroecology-to-the-rescue-7-ways-ecologists-are-working-toward-healthier-fo
• Agroecology and Sustainable Food Systems Special Issue: “Agroecology: Building an Ecological
Knowledge-base for Food System Sustainability” Volume 41 No. 7.
• Editorial: Agroecology: Building an ecological knowledge-base for food system sustainability Steve Gliessman Pages: 695-696 | DOI: 10.1080/21683565.2017.1335152
• Ecological complexity and agroecosystems: seven themes from theory John Vandermeer & Ivette Perfecto Pages: 697-722 | DOI: 10.1080/21683565.2017.1322166
• Intersection between biodiversity conservation, agroecology, and ecosystem services Heidi Liere, Shalene Jha & Stacy M. Philpott Pages: 723-760 | DOI: 10.1080/21683565.2017.1330796
• Nutrient cycling in agroecosystems: Balancing food and environmental objectives Kate Tully & Rebecca Ryals Pages: 761-798 | DOI: 10.1080/21683565.2017.1336149
• Improving water resilience with more perennially based agriculture |Andrea D. Basche & Oliver F. Edelson Pages: 799-824 | DOI: 10.1080/21683565.2017.1330795
• SRI: An agroecological strategy to meet multiple objectives with reduced reliance on inputs Norman Uphoff Pages: 825-854 | DOI: 10.1080/21683565.2017.1334738
• Triggering a positive research and policy feedback cycle to support a transition to agroecology and sustainable food systems Albie Miles, Marcia S. DeLonge & Liz Carlisle Pages: 855-879 | DOI:
10.1080/21683565.2017.1331179
• Insights from agroecology and a critical next step: Integrating human health Megan E. O’Rourke, Marcia S. DeLonge & Ricardo Salvador Pages: 880-884 | DOI: 10.1080/21683565.2017.1326073
A great application: De Pinto, Alessandro; Robertson, Richard D.; Begeladze, Salome; Kumar, Chetan; Kwon, Ho Young;
Thomas, Timothy S.; Cenacchi, Nicola; and Koo, Jawoo. 2017. Cropland restoration as an essential component to the forest
landscape restoration approach - Global effects of widescale adoption. IFPRI Discussion Paper 1682. Washington, D.C.
http://ebrary.ifpri.org/cdm/singleitem/collection/p15738coll2/id/131463 Also: https://
www.ifpri.org/publication/cropland-restoration-essential-component-forest-landscape-restoration-approach-global; De Pinto, A.,
K.D. Wieber, and M.W. Rosegrant, 2016, Climate Change and Agricultural Policy Options: A Global-to-local Approach. IFPRI: International Food Policy Research Institute.
Washington, D.C.. http://www.ifpri.org/publication/climate-change-and-agricultural-policy-options-global-local-approach
16

17. Organics, “sorta…”, price premia, local economies and local preference (15 good
refs.)•
Adams, D.C. and M.J. Salois, 2010, Local Versus Organic: A Turn in Consumer Preferences and Willingness-To-Pay. Renewable Agriculture and Food Systems 25(4): 331-341.
• McBride, W.D. and C. Taylor, 2015, Price Premiums Behind Organic Field Crop Profitability. Amber Waves, September 25, 2015. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Agriculture.
• McBride, W.D., C. Greene, L. Foreman and M. Ali, 2015, The Profit Potential of Certified Organic Field Crop Production. ERS Economic Research Report No. 188. Washington, D.C.: U.S.
Department of Agriculture. www.ers.usda.gov/publications/err-economic-research-report/err-188
• Hardesty, S., 2016, Direct-marketing Farms have Double the Regional Economic Impact. National Sustainable Agriculture Coalition’s Blog, 03 August 16.
• TEEB (2015) The Economics of Ecosystems and Biodiversity: TEEB for Agriculture & Food: an interim report, United Nations Environment Programme, Geneva, Switzerland.
http://www.teebweb.org/publication/teebagfood-interim-report/ (accessed 12 Jun 16)
• Union of Concerned Scientists, 2016, Growing Economies: Connecting Local Farmers and Large-Scale Buyers to Create Jobs and Revitalize America’s Heartland; Policy Brief. Cambridge,
MA: Union of Concerned Scientists. www.ucusa.org/GrowingEconomies.
• Lin, B-H., T.A. Smith and C.L. Huang, 2008, Organic Premiums of US Fresh Produce. Renewable Agriculture and Food Systems 23(3): 208-216.
• Mero, T., 2011, Organic Education: the Growth of Sustainable Agriculture Programs. Sustainability: The Journal of Record 4(5): 232-235.
• Oberholtzer, L., C. Dimitri and E.C. Jaenicke, 2013, International Trade of Organic Food: Evidence of US Imports. Renewable Agriculture and Food Systems 28(3): 255-262.
• Pimentel, D., P. Hepperly, J. Hanson, D. Douds and R. Seidel, 2005, Environmental, Energetic, and Economic Comparisons and Organic and Conventional Farming Systems. BioScience
55(7): 573-582.
• Ponisio, L.C., L.K. McGonigle, K.C. Mace. J. Palomino, P. de Valpine, and C. Kremen, 2015, Diversification Practices Reduce Organic to Conventional Yeild Gap. Proceedings of the Royal
Society B: 282: 20141396
• Reganold, J.P., 2013, Comparing Organic and Conventional Farming Systems: Metrics and Research Approaches. Online. Crop Management doi: 10.1094/CM-2013-0429-01-RS.
• Seufert, V., N. Ramankutty, and J.A. Foley, 2012, Comparing the Yields of Organic and Conventional Agriculture. Nature 485 (7397): 229-232 [plus methods page].
• Crowder, D.W. and J.P. Reganold, 2015, Financial Competitiveness of Organic Agriculture on a Global Scale. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Early Edition.
www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.1423674112.
• Delate, K., C. Cambardella, C. Chase, A. Johanns, and R. Turnbull, 2013, The Long-Term Agroecological Research Experiment Supports Organic Yields, Soil Quality, and Economic
Performance in Iowa. Plant Management Network, USDA Organic Farming Systems Research Conferences Proceedings. Published in journal Crop Management doi:10.1094/CM-2013-
0429-02-RS.
• THE POINT: better outcomes from low-input, BUT it takes transition with costs to get restoration of fertility and yield.17

18. Apples to apples or apples to fruit basket? Profits, Long-term and risk
management issues for the farms – Signs are good but need better studies…
• Seufert et al. 2012: a prominent effort to fairly compare conventional yield to organic yield of, say, apples to apples; as it
happens, organics lose because of the benefits of some pesticides for insect damage, aside from the price premium for
organic fruit. Organics “recover” as soil recovers, but may not achieve the same as conventional, though sustainability is a
question. With price premia much higher than break-even for the yield reduction of a single crop, organics are widely more
profitable after transition. (Crowder and Reganold 2015 found this also.)
• But agroecologists urge diversification of crops: there would be at least several others, rotating and perhaps intercropped:
So, over time it is apples to fruit basket! Next, economies of scale?
• There are also studies suggesting that the long-term yields of low-input agriculture with diversification may be superior in
resilience to climate and weather, and safer for farmers because of risk spreading and better performance of rainfed crops in
drought (see IPES-Food 2016, Hamilton et al. Eds, 2015, Ecology of Agricultural Ecosystems for discussions of the issues.)
• “In addition, it would be desirable to examine the total human-edible calorie or net energy yield of the entire farm system
rather than the biomass yield of a single crop species. To understand better the performance of organic agriculture,we
should: (1) systematically analyse the long-term performance of organic agriculture under different management regimes; (2)
study organic systems under a wider range of biophysical conditions; (3) examine the relative yield performance of small
holder agricultural systems; and (4) evaluate the performance of farming systems through more holistic system metrics.
• ….However, instead of continuing the ideologically charged ‘organic versus conventional’ debate, we should systematically
evaluate the costs and benefits of different management options.” Seufert et al.: 321. Note: Crowder and Reganold 2015
meta-analysis of studies had similar problems with difficulty of comparisons of whole systems; change over time was
approached.
Seufert, V., N. Ramankutty, and J.A. Foley, 2012, Comparing the Yields of Organic and Conventional Agriculture. Nature 485 (7397): 229-232 [plus methods page].
Hamilton, S.K., J.E. Doll, and G.P. Robertson, Eds., 2015, The Ecology of Agricultural Landscapes: Long-Term Research on the Path to Sustainability. New York: Oxford University Press.
Crowder, D.W. and J.P. Reganold, 2015, Financial Competitiveness of Organic Agriculture on a Global Scale. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Early Edition.
www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.1423674112.

19. Recent Bad News: Coastal Sea Level Rise Worsening –
Recent References
Jevrejeva, S. , et al.: Flood damage costs under the sea level rise with warming of 1.5°C and 2°C. Environmental Research
Letters, 2018; 13 (7): 074014; DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/aacc76 – FAILURE TO MEET <2 C MAY COST $14T/YR BY 2100
Cleetus, R., 2018, Underwater: Rising Seas, Chronic Floods, and the Implications for US Coastal Real Estate. Cambridge, MA;
Union of Concerned Scientists. www.uscusa.org/underwater . By 2100, 2.5M properties at risk. Within 15 years, >150K
properties, $63B at risk.
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/18062018/climate-change-coastal-flooding-zillow-real-estate-data-sea-level-rise-homes-bus
McKenna, P., 18 Jun 2018, Coastal Real Estate Worth Billions at Risk of Chronic Flooding…
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/06062018/coastal-flooding-data-sea-level-rise-climate-change-noaa-report-high-tide-risk
Kusnetz, N., 2018, U.S. Coastal Flooding Breaks Records as Sea Level Rises, NOAA Report Shows: The frequency of high-tide
flooding has doubled in 30 years. Some cities faced more than 20 days of it in the past year, and not just during hurricanes.
Inside Climate News, 06 Jun 2018.
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 2018, Patterns and Projections of High Tide Flooding Along the U.S.
Coastline Using a Common Impact Threshold. NOAA Technical Report NOS CO-OPS 086. Silver Spring, Maryland. National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National ocean Service, Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and
Services. https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/publications/techrpt86_PaP_of_HTFlooding.pdf
19

20. 20
Cleetus, R., 2018, Underwater:
Rising Seas, Chronic Floods,
and the Implications for US
Coastal Real Estate.
Cambridge, MA; Union of
Concerned Scientists.
www.uscusa.org/underwater .
By 2100, 2.5M properties
at risk. Within 15 years,
>150K properties,
$63B at risk.

21. Riverine Flood Losses and High-Intensity
Precipitation Worsening…
• Wing, O.E.J, P.D. Bates, A.M Smith, C.C. Sampson,, K.A. Johnson, J. Fargione and P. Morefield, 2018,
Estimates of Present and Future Flood Risk in the Conterminous United States. Environmental Research
Letters 13 (2018) 034023. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaac65 There is also a video with good
graphics: http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aaac65 41M people in the lower 48
states are exposed to a 1% probability riverine/fluvial or pluvial flood, compared to 13 M in FEMA’s flood
maps. This is estimated to be a $2.9 Trillion dollar exposure. Important: this study did not include
climate change, such as increased intensity of precipitation or changed seasonality!
• Already observed: increases in high-intensity precipitation: US Global Change Research Program 2017
Climate Science Special Report. [Wuebbles, D.J., D.W. Fahey, K.A. Hibbard, D.J. Dokken, B.C. Stewart, and
T.K. Maycock (eds.)]. U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC; doi: 10.7930/J0DJ5CTG.]
• Future (using very fine-grain weather - not climate - modeling): High intensity precipitation increases
dramatically: Prein, A.F., R.M. Rasmussen, K. Ikeda, C. Liu, M.P. Clark, and G.J. Holland, 2016, The Future
Intensification of Hourly Precipitation Extremes. Nature Climate Change on-line publication 05 December
2015. | DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE3168.
• Donat, M.G., A.L. Lowry, L.V. Alexander, P.A. O’Gorman, and N. Maher, 2016, More Extreme Precipitation
in the World’s Dry and Wet Regions. Nature Climate Change 6: 508-513. doi:10.1038/nclimate2941
21

22. Heat Waves Worsening
• World Weather Attribution, 2018, Attribution of the 2018 Heat in Northern
Europe. [Collaborating institutions as of July 2018 include: University of Oxford Environmental Change Institute (ECI); Royal Netherlands
Meteorological Institute (KNMI), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climate et de l’Environment (LSCE), Princeton University, National Center for Atmospheric
Research, and Red Cross and Red Crescent Climate Centre.] https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/
• “Heatwave made more than twice as likely by climate change, scientists find”
• https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/jul/27/heatwave-made-more-than-
twice-as-likely-by-climate-change-scientists-find
• Fingerprints of global warming clear, they say, after comparing northern
Europe’s scorching summer with records and computer models.
• Japan, early July: severe floods, followed by heatwave: 35,000 hospitalized;
• 23,000 in one week https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/25/world/asia/japan-heat-wave.html
• IMPACT OF SUCH EVENTS ON FOOD SECURITY AND DEMAND?
• 2012: One quarter of US corn crop lost Berry, S.T., M.J. Roberts, and W. Schlenker, 2013, Chapter 2, Pp.
59-90 in Chavas, J. P., D. Hummels, and B.D. Wright, Eds., 2013, The Economics of Food Price Volatility. Chicago: The University of
Chicago Press. 22

23. Tipping Points and Dominoes… Just One More Horrible
Threat… the Worst?
• Wuebbles, D.J., et al., 2017: Executive summary. In: Climate Science Special
Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume I [Wuebbles, D.J., D.W.
Fahey, K.A. Hibbard, D.J. Dokken, B.C. Stewart, and T.K. Maycock (eds.)]. U.S.
Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, USA, pp. 12-34, doi:
10.7930/J0DJ5CTG.]
Holding change to +2 C will be very hard.
• Includes a chapter (15) on unanticipated changes, tipping points, and dominoes…
• “There is broad consensus that the further and the faster the Earth
system is pushed towards warming, the greater the risk of
unanticipated changes and impacts, some of which are potentially
large and irreversible.” Compound or cascading effects from positive
feedbacks may catapult change to fast global catastrophe.
23

24. Tipping Point and Economics – a small
selection• Stern, N., 2016, Economics: Current Climate Models are Grossly Misleading. Nature 530: 407-409 (25 Feb 2016),
http://www.nature.com/news/economics-current-climate-models-are-grossly-misleading-1.19416 [Lord Stern’s 2006 report, “The Stern Review” provided
comfort and calm about the economics of climate change; and that 1% of GDP would avert catastrophe. He later found this misleadingly optimistic.]
• Bettis, O.D., S. Dietz, and N.G. Silver, 2016, The Risk of Climate Ruin. Climatic Change (2017) 140:109. 118 DOI 10.1007/s10584-016-1846-3.
• Bradford, M.A., W.R. Wieder, G.B. Bonan, N. Fierer, P.A. Raymond, and T.W. Crowther, 2016, Managing Uncertainty in Soil Carbon Feedbacks to Climate Change. Nature Climate Change 6: 751-758.
doi:10.1038/nclimate3071
• Cai, Y., T.M. Lenton, and T.S. Lontzek, 2016, Risk of Multiple Interacting Tipping Points Should Encourage Rapid CO2 Emission Reduction. Nature Climate Change 6: 520-525
• Dietz, S. and N. Stern, 2015, Endogenous Growth, Convexity of Damage and Climate Risk: How Nordhaus’ Framework Supports Deep Cuts in Carbon Emissions. The Economic Journal The Economic Journal, 125 (March),
574–620. Doi: 10.1111/ecoj.12188
• Dietz, S., A. Bowen, C. Dixon and P. Gradwell, 2016 “Climate Value at Risk” of Global Financial Assets. Nature Climate Change 6: 676-679. doi:10.1038/nclimate2972
• Drijfhout, S. Bathiany, C. Beaulieu, V. Brovkin, M. Claussen, C. Huntingford, M. Scheffer, G. Sgubin and D. Swingedouw, 2015, Catalogue of Abrupt Shifts in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Climate Models.
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences on-line: www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.1511451112.
• Editorial, 2016, Topping the Tables: Failure of Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation ranks as the Most Impactful Risk to Society According the 2016 Global Risks Report from the World Economic Forum. Nature
Climate Change 6: 219. doi: 10.1038/nclimate2955
• Lemoine, D. and C. P. Traeger, 2016, Economics of Tipping the Climate Dominoes. Nature Climate Change 6: 514-519. doi:10.1038/nclimate2902
• Luderer, G., C. Bertram, K. Calvin, E. De Cian, and E, Kriegler, 2016, Implications of Weak Near-term Climate Policies on Long-term Mitigation Pathways. Climatic Change (2016) 136: 127-140. DOI 10.1007/s10584-013-
0899-9.
• Schlenker, W. and M.J. Roberts, 2009, Nonlinear Temperature Effects Indicate Severe Damages to US Crop Yields Under Climate Change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 106: 15594-15598.
• Tokarska, K.B., N.P. Gillerr, A.J. Weaver, V.K. Arora, and M. Eby, 2016, The Climate Response to Five Trillion Tonnes of Carbon. Nature Climate Change 6: 851-855. doi:10.1038/nclimate3036
• Turner, G.M., 2008, A Comparison of the Limits to Growth with Thirty Years of Reality. Global Environmental Change 18(2008): 397-411. [Not economics but highly recommended.]
• World Economic Forum, 2016, Global Risks Report, 11th Edition. Geneva: World Economic Forum. http://www.weforum.org/reports/the-global-risks-report-2016.
• Xue, K., M. Yuan, Z.J. Shi, Y. Qin, Y. Deng, L. Cheng, L. Wu, Z. He, J.D. Van Nostrand, R. Bracho, S. Natali, E.A.G. Schuur, C. Luo, K.T. Konstantinidis, Q. Wang, J.R. Cole, J.M> Tiedje, Y. Luo, and J. Zhou, 2016, Tundra Soil
Carbon is Vulnerable to Rapid Microbial Decomposition under Climate Warming. Nature Climate Change 6: 595-600. doi:10.1038/nclimate2940
• Zickfeld, K, S. Solomon and D.M. Gilford, 2016, Centuries of Thermal Sea-level Rise due to Anthropogenic Emissions of Short-lived Greenhouse Gases. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Early Edition:
www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.1612066114.
• NOTE: this selection could be substantially increased and updated. 24

25. Why would a city want to invest in food
security?
• To stabilize institutional food costs – school districts, correctional
facilities, assisted living/nursing homes, food assistance…
• To acquire biofuels at stabilized prices/costs and with supply flow
management
• To invest in productivity for future benefits in meeting the preference
for local and high-quality foods
• To invest in high-value land and water that provides ecosystem
services (e.g. water quality benefits), amenity values for locals,
recreational benefits for visitors and locals, tax benefits (far lower
costs than residential with much higher revenues/cost
• And because food security IS NOT A GIVEN EVEN IN THE US…
• Now, a nasty little tour of global food insecurity… 25

26. The Climate Change, Global Food Security, and U.S. Food System assessment
[2015] represents a consensus of
authors and includes contributors from 19 Federal, academic, nongovernmental,
and intergovernmental
organizations in four countries, identifying climate-change effects on global food
security through 2100, and
analyzing the United States’ likely connections with that world.
The assessment finds that climate change is likely to diminish continued
progress on global food security through production disruptions leading to local
availability limitations and price increases, interrupted transport conduits, and
diminished food safety, among other causes. The risks are greatest for the global
poor and in tropical regions. In the near term, some high-latitude production
export regions may benefit from changes in climate.
As part of a highly integrated global food system, consumers
and producers in the United States are likely to be affected by
these changes.
Brown, M.E., J.M. Antle, P. Backlund,
E.R. Carr, W.E. Easterling, M.K. Walsh,
C. Ammann, W. Attavanich, C.B. Barrett,
M.F. Bellemare, V. Dancheck, C. Funk,
K. Grace, J.S.I. Ingram, H. Jiang,
H. Maletta, T. Mata, A. Murray,
M. Ngugi, D. Ojima, B. O’Neill, and
C. Tebaldi. 2015.
Climate Change, Global Food Security,
and the U.S. Food System. 146 pages.
Available online at
http://www.usda.gov/oce/climate
_change/FoodSecurity2015Assessment/
FullAssessment.pdf.
DOI: 10.7930/J0862DC7
26

27. FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP
and WHO. 2017.
The State of Food Security
and Nutrition in the World
2017. Building resilience
for peace and food security.
Rome, FAO. P. 8
http://www.fao.org/state-of-food-security-nutrition
P 7: “…recent reductions in food
availability and increases in food
prices in regions affected by
El Nino/La Nina-related
phenomena… *** …in
addition.. .conflicts increased…
in particular in… high food
insecurity….”
27

28. FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP
and WHO. 2017.
The State of Food Security
and Nutrition in the World
2017. Building resilience
for peace and food security.
Rome, FAO. P. 55
http://www.fao.org/state-of-food-security-nutrition
28

29. Innovative Finance or Other Funding
• Revaluation of water portfolios: acquisitions are often valued at historic costs, NOT replacement costs/values in
current conditions; see Howe, Charles W., 2017, Getting Western Municipal Water Prices Right: Reflecting the Scarcity
Value of Water. Journal of the American Water Works Association 109(8). This may sharply increase binding capacity in
some states.
• Water Rates to finance watershed improvement and floodwater management by agricultural conservation. Earth
Economics 2016: major cities are doing this.
• Tax increment financing? Where there is added value (e.g. stabilized water supply?) this might be useful…
• Cost-benefit as basis for necessary and ordinary utility functioning (as in for least-cost capital facility needs)
• ICMA International City/county Management Association and GFOA Government Finance Officers Association,
2017, Chen, C. and J. R.Bartle, Infrastructure Financing: A Guide for Local Government Managers.
https://icma.org/documents/infrastructure-financing-guide-local-government-managers . In 2012, infrastructure
spending by local government (LG) was the lowest % of expenditures in more than 50 years. Only 13% of survey respondents thought that
needs were met and funding was adequate. ¾ of public infrastructure is built by LG. Municipal bonding is and should be the primary
financing method [matching costs over time to benefits; basic fairness – presenter’s opinion.] P 5: graphic of federal vs LG shares, kinds of
infrastructure. LG infrastructure spending “FELL DRAMATICALLY BETWEEN 1992 AND 2002.” (P 6). Special districts share has grown
sharply since 2002 (P 7). Reviews traditional financing (taxation, user charges, bond financing, etc., such as water rates to support revenue
bonds. About 90% of LG capital spending is debt financed. New funding sources: new taxes; impact fees, development exactions. New
financing: includes revolving funds for credit assistance. Public-private Partnerships are in new financial arrangements [see Lincoln Institute
of Land Policy: https://www.lincolninst.edu/courses-events/courses/webinar-planning-financing-successful-public-private-partnerships-
national on when to use them. ICMA report discusses pro and con for each “new funding source” such as local option taxes (29 States
allow), impact fees (27 states as of 2012); Special Assessment Districts; tax increment financing – capture some of value created, as a self-
financing district; can be overused and limit property tax growth; risky if gain in property tax is below forecast. Revolving funds are
discussed, and state infrastructure banks. State Bond Banks are used in 10 states to pool small bonding at lower rates and costs. “Green

30. Recent relevant financing articles from
AWRA
• Hansen, K. and M. Mullin, 2018, How Local Government
Fragmentation Drives Disparities in Water Infrastructure. Water
Resources Impact 20(4): 6-7. [July-August 2018]
• McKay, D., 2018, Funding Irrigation Modernization and Investing in
Rural Communities. Water Resources Impact 20(4): 8-9, 26.
• Bovee, B., 2018, Building on Water Assets: How Water Marketing Can
Help Finance Water Infrastructure for Irrigation Operations. Water
Resources Impact 20(4): 10-12.
30

31. COMMUNITY SUPPORT CAN WORK IN MANY WAYS --
CONTRACTS ABOUT PRIVATE PROPERTY ARE VERY WIDE OPEN!
BENEFIT CORPORATIONS AND CO-OPS AND MANY WAYS OF COMMUNITY SUPPORT… AND
INVESTMENT
THINK ABOUT EXCHANGES OF SERVICES AND STABILITY, NOT JUST MONEY
OWNERSHIP (single
agency)
PARTNERSHIP LEASE CONTRACT –
COMMON or
PAY FOR
COMMUNITY
SUPPORTED
AGRICULTURE
Fee simple – total
JUST BUY IT
As defined
OWN IT BUT
NOT ALONE
Land for long term; some
places called “ground
lease” for building
investment
Crops – commonly
VERY tightly
controlled by Non-
farm party –
40% of US AG NOW!
Non-farmer rights
vary with deal;
commonly a variable
portion of mixed
outputs
Permanent easement
– usually RIGID land
uses, especially if TAX
Breaks involved
(Fed Estate, State)
CAN BE Flexible
and
Contingent
Farming Rights – often
called plain leasing, for
specified duration usually
a few years or less
Share of crops,
historically tightly
controlled by land
owner
Can include
obligations beyond
payment or a mix;
Farmers set the
terms
Transferred
Development
Rights
Multiple Parties,
Multiple
Interests
(can implement
a coalition
Water Banks/Etc: --
where legally allowed –
wide variation, purposes
may be constrained, or
duration
Payment for
Ecosystem Services
can be contract or
more like partnership
Can include access
for amenity,
recreation, and
philanthropy
E.g. TDR for Smart
Growth Clustering
E.g. Water
sharing
permanent deal
E.g. Idaho Snake River.
Working water markets
E.g. New York City
watershed protection
for >1 BG/day
Hundreds are
florescing! Often
also with direct sales
A fine example of new
thinking with a solid
basis: Jordan, N.R., D.J.
Mulla, C. Slotterback,
B. Runck, and C. Hays,
2018, Multifunctional
Agricultural Watersheds
for Climate Adaptation
in Midwest USA: com-
mentary. Renewable
Agriculture and Food
Systems 33: 292-296.
https://doi.org/10.1017/S174217051700655
New institutions for new
purposes and needs – the
Why is Clear – now, the
HOW and WHO.