STR Global Breakfast Briefing October 2013
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Elizabeth Winkle, Managing Director; Philip Wooller, Area Director Middle East and Africa and Jesper Palmqvist, Area Director Asia Pacific share their insights on performance in the respective regions.
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STR Global Breakfast Briefing October 2013
- 1. STR Global Client Breakfast Briefing Grand Connaught Rooms 29th October 2013 STR Global Client Event @2013 STR Global www.strglobal.com
- 2. Our participants As of September 2013 +30,000 hotels +3.9 m rooms +47,000 hotels +6.4m rooms +8,000 hotels +1,1 m rooms +400 hotels +120,000 rooms +800 hotels +160,000 rooms STR Global Client Event @2013 STR Global +600 hotels +100,000 rooms +5,000 hotels +1 m rooms www.strglobal.com
- 3. Global performance RevPAR YTD September 2013 (USD) + 0.6%€ + 5.4% - 4.1% +5.1% STR Global Client Event @2013 STR Global www.strglobal.com
- 4. RevPAR % Chg € +4.4% Europe YTD 13 STR Global Client Event @2013 STR Global YE 12 +0.6% www.strglobal.com
- 5. Europe Room Supply and Demand %Chg 12 months moving average YE 2005 to September 2013 Nov ‘10 6.8% 8% 6% Jun’12 2.1% 4% Sep‘13 2.8% 2% 0% -2% -4% Jul ‘09 -7.3% -6% -8% 2005 2006 2007 2008 Supply % Chg STR Global Client Event @2013 STR Global 2009 2010 2011 2012 Demand % Chg www.strglobal.com
- 6. Europe Occ and ADR %Chg 12 month moving average YE 2005 to September 2013 8% Jan ‘11 5.4% 6% May ‘11 5.7% Sep ‘13 1.8% 4% 2% 0% -2% Sep ‘13 -0.4% -4% -6% -8% -10% Jul ‘09 -8.4% -12% -14% 2005 2006 2007 2008 Occ % Chg STR Global Client Event @2013 STR Global Nov ‘09 -11.5% 2009 2010 2011 2012 ADR % Chg www.strglobal.com
- 7. Europe actual performance 12 month moving average YE 2005 to September 2013 1,800,000,000 120 € 1,600,000,000 1,400,000,000 100 € 1,200,000,000 80 € 1,000,000,000 60 € 800,000,000 600,000,000 40 € 400,000,000 20 € 200,000,000 0€ 0 2005 2006 2007 Supply STR Global Client Event @2013 STR Global 2008 2009 Demand 2010 2011 2012 RevPAR www.strglobal.com
- 8. Europe Classes Occ and ADR YTD September 2012 & 2013 85% 300 € -0.3 250 € 80% 200 € 75% -1.9 70% 150 € -0.7 -2.0 -2.7 100 € 65% 50 € +1.8 +2.3 +1.1 +1.8 +3.9 Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale/Economy 0€ 60% Luxury Occ 12 STR Global Client Event @2013 STR Global Occ 13 ADR 12 ADR 13 www.strglobal.com
- 9. European Countries RevPAR % Chg YTD September 2013 (local currency) 30.0 20.0 East North South West 10.0 0.0 -10.0 -20.0 -30.0 STR Global Client Event @2013 STR Global www.strglobal.com
- 10. Europe Markets RevPAR % Chg Top and Bottom 5 Markets, YTD September 2013 (local currency) Warsaw • -18.0 % Edinburgh • + 7.7 % Madrid • - 6.8% Budapest • + 9.7% Tel Aviv • - 6.6% Dublin • + 10.3% Vienna • - 6.2% Copenhagen • + 11.7% Helsinki • - 5.7% Vilnius • + 16.6% STR Global Client Event @2013 STR Global www.strglobal.com
- 11. P&L 2012 GOPPAR % Chg Top 5 Countries and Markets in Europe (Local Currency) LONDON GBP AMSTERDAM EUR PRAGUE CZK SAINT PETERSBURG RUB MOSCOW RUB IRELAND EUR HUNGARY HUF RUSSIA RUB CZECH REPUBLIC CZK POLAND PLN 0 STR Global Client Event @2013 STR Global 13.8 16.1 17.2 22.3 23.8 26.8 26.3 23.6 18.6 15.8 5 10 15 20 25 30 www.strglobal.com
- 12. Eurozone Demand & GDP Quarterly 2004 – 2015F (GDP Source: Oxford Economics) 10.0 5.0 0.0 -5.0 -10.0 -15.0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Demand STR Global Client Event @2013 STR Global 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014f 2015f GDP www.strglobal.com
- 13. Europe Pipeline Top 5 Countries Pipeline as a % of existing supply Azerbaijan Kazakhstan Belarus Tajikistan Georgia 0% 10% STR Global Client Event @2013 STR Global 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% www.strglobal.com
- 14. RevPAR % Chg £ United Kingdom YTD 13 STR Global Client Event @2013 STR Global +1.5% YE 12 +2.5% www.strglobal.com
- 15. RevPAR % Chg 9.6% Sept YTD GBP 5.4% Yorkshire N Ireland 5.0% 4.4% STR Global Client Event @2013 STR Global 1.4% W Midlands E England London SE England SW England -1.7% E Midlands 5.4% Wales 6.6% NW England -1.3% 5.6% NE England 6.8% 0.9% Scotland www.strglobal.com
- 16. Key Cities – UK Occ and ADR % Chg YTD September 2013 GBP 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% Occ STR Global Client Event @2013 STR Global ADR www.strglobal.com
- 17. RevPAR % Chg £ Regional UK YTD 13 STR Global Client Event @2013 STR Global -0.6% YE 12 +4.4% www.strglobal.com
- 18. Regional UK Classes Supply and Demand % Chg YTD September 2013 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Supply STR Global Client Event @2013 STR Global Upper Midscale Midscale/Economy Demand www.strglobal.com
- 19. Regional UK Classes YTD September 2012 & 2013 Occ and ADR in GBP 85% £300.0 £250.0 80% £200.0 75% £150.0 70% £100.0 65% £50.0 60% £0.0 Luxury Upper Upscale Occ 12 STR Global Client Event @2013 STR Global Upscale Occ 13 Upper Midscale ADR 12 Midscale/Economy ADR 13 www.strglobal.com
- 20. RevPAR % Chg £ +2.2% London YTD 13 STR Global Client Event @2013 STR Global YE 12 -1.7% www.strglobal.com
- 21. London Occupancy, ADR and RevPAR YTD September 2011 vs YTD September 2013 £160 100 £160 100 £140 90 £140 90 82.3% £120 £100 80 70 £60 30 £40 70 £80 40 £110 £60 £100 50 £80 80 £120 60 £133 82.3% 20 60 £136 50 £112 40 30 £40 20 £20 10 £20 10 £0 0 £0 0 2011 ADR RevPAR STR Global Client Event @2013 STR Global Occ ‘13YTD Supply growth 4% 2013 ADR RevPAR Occ www.strglobal.com
- 22. London Classes Supply and Demand % Chg YTD September 2013 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Supply STR Global Client Event @2013 STR Global Upper Midscale Midscale/Economy Demand www.strglobal.com
- 23. London Classes Occ and ADR YTD Sep 2012 & 2013 GBP 85% £300 £250 80% £200 75% £150 70% £100 65% £50 60% £0 Luxury Upper Upscale Occ 12 STR Global Client Event @2013 STR Global Upscale Occ 13 Upper Midscale ADR 12 Midscale/Economy ADR 13 www.strglobal.com
- 24. RevPAR % Chg $ +5.3% MEA YTD 13 STR Global Client Event @2013 STR Global YE 12 +5.1% www.strglobal.com
- 25. MEA Countries REvPAR % Chg YTD September 2013 (local currency) 30.0 Africa 20.0 Middle East 10.0 0.0 -10.0 -20.0 -30.0 Kenya Egypt Mauritius STR Global Client Event @2013 STR Global South Africa Lebanon Jordan Saudi Arabia Qatar United Kuwait Arab Emirates Bahrain Oman www.strglobal.com
- 26. MEA Overview RevPAR % Chg YTD September 2013 (local currency) Beirut -26.9% Makkah -0.6% Medina -0.3% Riyadh 0.4% Jeddah 9.0% Dubai +11.0% Cape Town +16.7% STR Global Client Event @2013 STR Global Cairo -6.3% Nairobi -4.9% Doha +9.1% Sandton & Sur. +10.4% Manama +10.5% Abu Dhabi 11.0% Muscat +15.9% www.strglobal.com
- 27. RevPAR % Chg AED UAE +4.1% YTD 13 STR Global Client Event @2013 STR Global YE 12 +10.5% www.strglobal.com
- 28. Abu Dhabi vs Dubai Occ and ADR % chg YTD 19th October 2013 (daily data) AED 35% 30% Abu Dhabi Dubai 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% Abu Dhabi Luxury Upper Upscale Upper Mid & Upscale Midscale Eco Occ STR Global Client Event @2013 STR Global Dubai Luxury Upper Upscale Upper Mid & Upscale Midscale Eco ADR www.strglobal.com
- 29. Dubai Selected Submarkets Occ and ADR % Chg YTD 19th October 2013 (daily data) AED 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% STR Global Client Event @2013 STR Global Occupancy ADR www.strglobal.com
- 30. Dubai Selected Submarkets Occ and ADR YTD 19th October 2013 (daily data) AED 100% AED 2,050 AED 1,850 90% AED 1,650 80% AED 1,450 70% AED 1,250 AED 1,050 60% AED 850 50% AED 650 AED 450 40% AED 250 30% AED 50 Occupancy STR Global Client Event @2013 STR Global ADR $ www.strglobal.com
- 31. Selected Cities Pipeline MEA Supply Increase % of existing September 2013 Abu Dhabi Nigeria Manama Muscat Doha Al Khobar Makkah Lagos Jeddah Riyadh 0% 20% STR Global Client Event @2013 STR Global 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% www.strglobal.com
- 32. MEA Pipeline Top 5 Countries Pipeline as a % of existing supply Rwanda Angola Libya Mauritania Iraq 0% 100% STR Global Client Event @2013 STR Global 200% 300% 400% 500% 600% www.strglobal.com
- 33. RevPAR % Chg $ APAC -0.4% YTD 13 STR Global Client Event @2013 STR Global YE 12 -4.1% www.strglobal.com
- 34. Asia Pacific RevPAR growth YTD September 2013 (local currency) India -3.1 Singapore -1.3 South Korea -8.1 China -5.7 Malaysia +6.2 Hong Kong -2.1 Indonesia +7.6 Philippines +0.0 Vietnam +8.7 Australia +2.1 Thailand +15.9 Maldives +20.0 STR Global Client Event @2013 STR Global Taiwan +6.9 Japan +11.5 www.strglobal.com
- 35. APAC Markets RevPAR growth YTD September 2013 (local currency) Seoul -13.2% Delhi-NCR -11.1% Bali +0.6% Kuala Lumpur 1.0% Ho Chi Minh City +1.4% Osaka +11.2% Jakarta +11.4% STR Global Client Event @2013 STR Global Beijing -7.4% Manila -3.1% Taipei + 4.3% Sydney + 4.8% Phuket + 5.4% Tokyo +12.3% Bangkok +15.6% www.strglobal.com
- 36. Pipeline | Asia Pacific By country – Q3 2013 16% Malaysia 4% 8% Thailand 3% 18% 58% Philippines 3% Vietnam 2% Australia 2% Japan 2% Singapore 1% South Korea 1% STR Global Client Event @2013 STR Global www.strglobal.com
- 37. Pipeline | Asia Pacific – Size of properties By country – Q3 2013 350 300 250 200 150 100 STR Global Client Event @2013 STR Global www.strglobal.com
- 38. APAC Pipeline Top 5 Countries Pipeline as a % of existing supply Philippines Sri Lanka Myanmar Mongolia Bangladesh 0% 20% STR Global Client Event @2013 STR Global 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 160% www.strglobal.com
- 39. Forecast STR Global Client Event @2013 STR Global www.strglobal.com
- 40. Forecast 2014 Occupancy and ADR % Chg (local currency) STR Global Client Event @2013 STR Global www.strglobal.com
- 41. Forecast : 3 key Markets RevPAR % Chg 2014 Year-end as of Aug 2013 edition (local currency) +3.4% STR Global Client Event @2013 STR Global +5.6% +4.4% www.strglobal.com
- 42. Thank you STR Global Client Event @2013 STR Global www.strglobal.com
- 43. Contacts STR Global +44 (0)207 922 1930 info@strglobal.com www.strglobal.com You can follow us on Twitter, Facebook, LinkedIn STR Global, Ltd is the exclusive owner of all rights in this presentation and its content. Reproduction of all or a portion of this presentation for any purpose without prior approval of STR Global is strictly prohibited. This presentation is based on information compiled by STR Global Ltd. No strategic or marketing recommendations or advice are intended or implied. STR Global Client Event @2013 STR Global www.strglobal.com