The document discusses the dual challenge of meeting development goals while staying within planetary boundaries. It notes that 850 million people are malnourished, 1.1 billion live in poverty, and many depend on ecosystem services threatened by global change. Agriculture is key to development but increased yields could impact nutrient cycles, pollution, land use, and water availability. Tradeoffs and synergies between development and sustainability must be assessed across scales, criteria, and sectors to identify opportunities while remaining within critical environmental thresholds.

1. The Quadruple Squeeze –
Meeting the dual challenge of
development and sustainability
Louise Karlberg, PhD

2. Dual challenge – environment
and development
Non-negotiables:
• Meeting food requirements – MDG’s
• Not exceed critical sustainability thresholds
What are the remaining degrees of freedom for
humanity on planet Earth?

3. Human growth
20/80 dilemma
Ecosystems
60 % loss dilemma
Climate
550/450/350
dilemma
Surprise
99/1 dilemma
TThe
Quadruple
Squeeze

4. Critical transitions or regime shifts
From: Schellnhuber, J., 2007. PIK

5. Climate
Change
Ocean
acidification
Ozone
depletion
Global
Freshwater
Use
Rate of
Biodiversity
Loss
Biogeochemical
loading: Global
N & P Cycles
Atmospheric
Aerosol
Loading
Land
System
Change
Chemical
Pollution
Planetary
Boundaries

7. The Development Challenge
• 850 million malnourished
• 1.1 billion poor
• 70 % poor live in rural areas and
depend on land/water based
ecosystem services
• Agriculture a key to poverty
alleviation and socio-economic
development
• Global change and local
environmental degradation eroding
capacity to achieve the MDGs
• Social and Ecological
vulnerabilities on the increase
• Frequency of environmental
shocks on the increase
• Disasters hit vulnerable
communities hardest
• Innovations in management and
governance give hope

8. Water limitations for food production
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
0 1000 2000 3000 4000
Available blue water (m3/cap/yr)
Totavailablewater(m3/cap/yr)
b
c
d
a
Income (2005) Deficit Surplus
Low
1404 km3/yr
REMAINING DEFICITS
3790 Mp
407 km3/yr
FOOD EXPORT
477 Mp
Medium
487 km3/yr
FOOD IMPORT
2120 Mp
2680 km3/yr
FOOD EXPORT
1610 Mp
High
259 km3/yr
FOOD IMPORT
522 Mp
876 km3/yr
FOOD EXPORT
631 Mp
Assume irrigation expansion and
more crop per drop
Is there enough water to produce food?
-YES!
So, can trade solve the problem?
How many people live in low income
countries?
2050 scenario

9. Conclusions on development
challenge
Huge need to improve yields in the tropics. This
could result in trade-offs:
• N- and P- cycles (eutrophication)
• Pollution (increased pesticide, herbicide use)
• Agricultural land use expansion
• Carbon sequestration
• Down-stream fresh-water availability (and timing)

10. Within the boundaries of the non-
negotiables: illustrating opportunities
and trade-offs
Agriculture 20-30% of GHG emissions
(total antropogenic emissions = 9 Gt/yr)
Agricultural soils pot C. seq rate of 0.4-1.2
GtC/yr by 2050 (Lal et al)
Higher yields
Lower net GHG emissions
Less water downstream

11. Some questions for the future
• Are current agricultural techniques sufficient to
meet the dual challenge of increased food
production and sustainability?
• How large will the future bioenergy production be,
and what are the consequences for food
production, other ecosystem services and CC
mitigation?
• What are the impacts of life-styles (consumption
of commodities, energy, transportation, diets etc) –
global distribution

12. Remaining sustainable while developing
• Illustrations of TRADE-OFFS and SYNERGIES
• Assessments across scales
• Assessments focussing on several sustainability criteria
(e.g. nutrients, land-use, biodiversity, carbon and water)
• A multi-sectoral approach (e.g. food, feed, fuel, fibre)
• Assessments of ecosystem services, livelihoods, resilience,
policies and institutions, etc.