Intervenant: Maciej chorowski thèmes: Polish Power Generation system, Optimal „Energy Mix” for Poland Présentation lors d’une table ronde sur les perspectives de plusieurs pays à la convention SFEN du 4 avril 2013. Retrouvez la vidéo de la conférence à la fin de la présentation ou sur youtube. http://youtu.be/cYHsgsRGTGM

1. NUCLEAR and RENEWABLES
in Polish energy mix
Maciej Chorowski
Wroclaw University of Technology, Poland
Nucléaire et Renouvelables
dans la transition énergétique
Paris, 03 April 2013

2. Content
• Polish Power Generation system
• Optimal „Energy Mix” for Poland
– Nuclear Power Generation
– Renewables Sources of Energy
• Conclusions and why Poland is different

3. Poland in Europe
COAL
Ca 40 milion inhabitants
Ca 80 milion tons coal/y

4. Installed Electrical Power in Poland (2012)
Power plant El. power % of power
Total Installed Power 34 000 MW 100
Power plants using black coal 16 000 MW 47
Power plants using lignite COAL 9 000 MW 26 86%
Co-generation plants using coal
Co- 4 500 MW 13
Co-generation plants using gas
Co- 1 000 MW 3
Hydro Power Plants 1 000 MW 3
Wind Power Plants RENEW 2 000 MW 6 11%
Biomass and Biogas Power Plants 500 MW 2
The biggest Power Generation Companiescoal – 86%, gas – 3%,
The
today „energy mix”: in Poland
renewables -EDF, VATTENFALL
PGE, PKE, ZE PAK,
11% , nuclear – 0%
Wrocław Meeting – 1 December 2009

5. Power Plants
Co-generation plants
Years
Taking into account the age of Polish power plants and GNP growth,
a minimum yearly level of new investments in power generation can
be estimated as of about 2 GW, not mentioning the derogations

6. Optimal target„energy mix” for Poland - 2030
Poland will stay with the coal as a primary energy source. As a matter of
fact there is no realistic alternative.
The optimal energy mix for Poland:
Coal (black and lignite) – 50%, 11 GW of new investments
Natural gas – 15%, 10 GW of new investments
Nuclear – 15 %, 10 GW of new investments
Renewables – 20 %. 14 GW of new investments
Having in mind the scale of required new investments in Poland, the
creation of optimal energy mix can be realized within the growth of the
power sector. There is no need to antagonize different power
generation technologies, like:
Nuclear against Renevables,
Nuclear against Natural Gas (including Shale Gas).

7. NUCLEAR POWER GENERATION in
POLAND?
OFTEN RAISED PROBLEMS:
1. Nuclear energy is not safe, we should not expose
Poland for additional risk.
2. Nuclear power generation plant is too expensive
3. Nuclear Power Generation is not to be considered
together with shale gas exploitation (financially).
Wrocław Meeting – 1 December 2009

8. Is Poland free from Nuclear Power Plants?
There is no Nuclear Power
Plant in Poland.
Nevertheless Poland is
surrounded by nuclear
reactors. At the distance not
exceeding 310 km, there are
10 Nuclear Power plants (25
reactors) of a total power of
about 17 GW.
Poland is than exposed
to the consequences of
Nuclear Power Plants
failures,
but is not profiting from
the technology.
Courtesy: State Atomic Agency

9. Installed Power and Generated Energy in
Wind Turbines (Germany) Source: Bundesministerium fur
Umwelt
In 2010:
Installed Power 27 240 MW
Energy delivered 36 500 GWh
Availibility 15,3 %
1 200 USD/kW
8 000 USD/kW
Taking into
Account the
Availibility
Taking into account the availability of nuclear and renewable energy
sources both the investment and exploitation costs (including grid
upgrade) may be similar, if not in favor for nuclear.

10. GAS – RENEWABLES SYNERGY
Wind turbines rarely contribute to the system at the
peak demands. The net stable operation is jeopardized.
The system can be stabilized by combining wind
turbines with gas turbines (similar dynamics)
~
1W 0.5 – 1.0 W
In the proposed energy mix renewables and gas power plants are combined

11. Nord Stream – is it a way to stabilize power
generation and transmission system in Europe ?
Wind turbines can be stabilized with gas turbines. A total
available electrical power may even double. Then nuclear
power plants are the first to pay the price – by shutdown.

12. 8 November 2011
Unconventional shale gas may
create an option for the
dependence on Russian natural
gas supplied by pipelines
(From left to right, first row) French
Prime Minister Francois Fillon;
German Chancellor Angela Merkel;
Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte;
Russian President Dmitry Medvedev;
and European Union Energy
Commissioner Guenther Oettinger
turn a wheel to symbolically start the
flow of gas through Line 1 of the Nord
Stream twin pipeline system.

13. Conclusions
Poland should commission about 2000 MW per year in
the forthcoming 20-25 years. This results from the
energy consumption prognosis and present state of
Polish power sector.
The present energy mix (90 % coal) should be changed.
New investments will be done in coal (still dominant),
nuclear (?), gas (shale?), and renewable technologies.
The exemplary target energy mix should be:
Coal (black and lignite) – 50%,
Natural gas – 15%,
Nuclear – 15 %,
Renewables – 20 %.

14. WHY POLAND IS DIFFERENT?
New Power Plants
in Europe in 2012
Total 44.6 MW
16,7 GW –
photovoltaics - 47%
Poland, resting with a
coal dominated
energy mix, may be
criticized and subject
to ostracism
The European Wind energy association, Eurostat, 2013

15. We should be prepared that Polish power policy refusing
deep decarbonization may (and most probably will) be
criticized by:
• Germany – interested in export of renewables technologies and
trying to stabilize the system with flexible gas power plants (also
in Poland).
• France – interested in decarbonization as a pressure for nuclear
power plants (EPR reactors). France is not sensitive to CO2
emission problems.
• Graet Britain, ETS trade is giving the City prospects for future
incomes.
• Other countries, because having a different energy mix they
are not subjected to analogous costs and may gain more for
supporting the climate policy.