Indian agriculture faces challenges from climate change and increasing population. Climate models project higher temperatures, changing precipitation patterns, and more extreme weather. This will impact food production, especially of key crops like rice, wheat, and maize. Regions may see yield gains or losses depending on local conditions. Adaptation is needed through new crop varieties, water management, and diversification. Greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture must also be reduced through improved land and livestock practices. Strategies are needed to ensure future Indian food security under climate change.

1. Indian Food Security and Climate
Change Agriculture Future
Deepak Shah*, P K Joshi, Gerald C Nelson,
Daniel Mason‐D’Croz and Amanda Palazzo
* Gokhle Institute of Political Economy
International Food Policy Research Institute

2. Outline
• Background
• Salient characteristics of Indian agriculture
• Socio‐economic characteristics
• Bio‐physical characteristics
• Scenarios for adaptation
• Agricultural vulnerable scenario
• Agriculture and Greenhouse Gas Mitigation
• Conclusions and the way forward

3. Background
• Agriculture is vulnerable to climate change
• Higher temperatures may reduce yields
• Encourage weed and pests proliferation
• Greater variation in precipitation patterns increase the
likelihood of short‐term crop failure and long‐run production
decline
• Adversely affect availability and prices of food commodities
domestically and at international markets
• Negative impact on income from agricultural production
both on the farm and country level

4. Background ‐ Key challenges
• Mounting population growth
• Population has reached 1.2 billion

5. Background ‐ Key challenges
• Mounting population growth
• Population has reached 1.2 billion
• Population in India will continue to grow even as the
population in China plateaus
• India will pass China as most populous country by 2030
Population (billion) Share of World Population

6. Background ‐ Key challenges
• Mounting population growth
• Widespread poverty
• More than 300 million people; 1/4th of the world’s poor

7. Population living in poverty
States 2004‐05 (%)
Andhra Pradesh 15.8
Assam 19.7
Bihar 41.4
Chhattisgarh 40.9
Delhi 14.7
Gujarat 16.8
Haryana 14.0
Himachal Pradesh 10.0
Jammu & Kashmir 5.4
Source: IFPRI estimates
from GRUMP for Jharkhand 40.3
2000.(Center for Karnataka 25.0
International Earth Science
Information Network Kerala 15.0
Columbia University 2004)
Madhya Pradesh 38.3
Maharashtra 30.7
Poverty in India over time Orissa 46.4
Punjab 8.4
Rajasthan 22.1
Tamil Nadu 22.5
Uttar Pradesh 32.8
Uttarakhand 39.6
West Bengal 24.7
All India 27.5
Source: Planning Commission and NSSO 61st Round Source: Planning Commission and NSSO 61st Round

8. Background ‐ Key challenges
• Mounting population growth
• Widespread poverty
• Inadequate physical and social infrastructure
• Large scale rural‐urban migration
• Limited non‐agricultural employment opportunities
• Insufficient access to quality education
• Gradual depletion and degradation of natural resources
• Diversion of land and water to non‐agriculture uses
• Market fluctuation and high food inflation
• Changing agricultural trade regime

9. Agriculture’s Role in the Economy
• Per Capita GDP is increasing, but agriculture’s share of the
overall economy has been falling

10. Agriculture’s Role in the Economy
• Per Capita GDP is increasing, but agriculture’s share of the
overall economy has been falling
• Agriculture sector employs about 52% population, and
contributes around 18% of GDP
Year India China
GDP per % share of GDP per % share of
capita agriculture in capita (US$) agriculture in
(US$) GDP GDP
1997 428 24.7 810 17.5
2000 448 21.7 956 14.9
2005 713 16.7 1766 15.2
2006 791 17.4 2137 13.1
2007 981 18.0 2649 11.0

11. Agriculture’s Role in the Economy
• Per Capita GDP is increasing, but agriculture’s share of the
overall economy has been falling
• Agriculture sector employs about 52% population, and
contributes around 18% of GDP
• Agriculture accounts for 65‐70 percent of rural incomes
• Growth in the agricultural sector has been sluggish
Annual Growth
Year Total Pop. Rural Pop.
Rate (%)
1951 361.1 1.25 298.6
1961 439.2 1.96 360.3
1971 548.2 2.22 439.0
1981 683.3 2.20 523.9
1991 846.4 2.14 628.9
2001 1028.7 1.95 742.6

12. Area, Value, and Consumptions Shares
Area Value
Consumption
FAOSTAT

13. Area, Value, and Consumptions Shares
Area Value
• Key Food Grains:
• Rice
Consumption
FAOSTAT

14. Area, Value, and Consumptions Shares
Area Value
• Key Food Grains:
• Rice
• Wheat
Consumption
FAOSTAT

15. Area, Value, and Consumptions Shares
Area Value
• Key Food Grains:
• Rice
• Wheat
• Vegetables and Consumption
Pulses FAOSTAT

16. Climate Change in India
• India spans many different ecological, geographic, and climatic zones
• 15 Agro‐climatic zones: • 6 Agro‐ecological zones
• Western Himalayas • Arid
• Eastern Himalayas • Semi‐arid
• Lower Gangetic Plains
• Middle Gangetic Plains • Dry‐sub humid
• Upper Gangetic Plains • Moist sub humid
• Trans Gangetic Plains • Humid
• Eastern Plateau and Hill Region • Per humid
• Central Plateau and Hill Region
• Western Plateau and Hill Region
• Southern Plateau and Hill Region
• East Coast Plains and Hill Region
• West Coast Plains and Ghat Region
• Gujarat Plains and Ghat Region
• Western Dry Region
• Island Region

17. Climate Change in India
• India spans many different ecological, geographic, and climatic zones
• Climate change is expected to:
• Increase average temperatures
• Change precipitation patterns
• Increase weather volatility and frequency of extreme weather events

18. Climate Change in India
• India spans many different ecological, geographic, and climatic zones
• Climate change is expected to:
• Increase average temperatures
• Change precipitation patterns
• Increase weather volatility and frequency of extreme weather events
• Local climate change effects may vary greatly due to
• Geography
• Available water resources

19. Changes in annual precipitation between 2000‐2050
Change in precip (mm)
CNRM‐CM3 GCM CSIRO‐MK3 GCM
ECHAM5 GCM MIROC3.2

20. Changes in maximum temperature 2000‐50
Change in annual
maximum temperature
CNRM‐CM3 GCM CSIRO‐MK3 GCM
ECHAM5 GCM MIROC3.2

21. Climate Change in India
• India spans many different ecological, geographic, and climatic zones
• Climate change is expected to:
• Increase average temperatures
• Change precipitation patterns
• Increase weather volatility and frequency of extreme weather events
• Local climate change effects may vary greatly due to
• Geography
• Available water resources
• These change will have varying effects on food grain producing regions

22. Climate Change Effects on Food Grains ‐ Wheat
Baseline Yield lost > Yield lost 5‐ Yield gain 5‐ Yield gain > New area
Crops
area lost 25 % 25 % 25 % 25% gained
Parts of Parts of
Parts of Parts of
Irrigated In parts of 10 Bihar, Orissa Maharashtra Some area of
Karnataka Karnataka
Wheat States and West and J&K
and AP and AP
Bengal (WB) Karnataka
Parts of MP,
Rainfed Parts of Parts of In parts of 8 Maharashtra,
‐ ‐
Wheat Karnataka Uttarakhand States Haryana,
Punjab, HP
State‐wise Yield Change in 2050 (Based on CSIRO GCM and MIROC GCM)

23. IMPACT Results for Wheat
Yield
Production
Area

24. Climate Change Effects on Food Grains ‐ Rice
Baseline Yield lost > Yield lost 5‐ Yield gain 5‐ Yield gain > New area
Crops
area lost 25 % 25 % 25 % 25% gained
WB, parts of In parts of 14 Parts of UP
Irrigated Rice ‐ ‐ ‐
Haryana States and Haryana
Uttarakhand,
Most parts of
Parts of HP, Punjab,
Maharashtra,
Some parts In parts of 8 Maharashtra some border
Rainfed Rice ‐ Parts of
of MP States and areas of UP,
Karnataka,
Karnataka MP and
Orissa, Bihar
Karnataka
State‐wise Yield Change in 2050 (Based on CSIRO GCM and MIROC GCM)

25. IMPACT Results for Rice
Yield
Production
Area

26. Climate Change Effects on Food Grains ‐ Maize
Baseline Yield lost > Yield lost 5‐ Yield gain 5‐ Yield gain > New area
Crops
area lost 25 % 25 % 25 % 25% gained
Parts of UP,
Some area of In parts of 10
Irrigated Maize ‐ and Haryana, ‐ ‐
Chhattisgarh States
and Karnataka
Parts of Parts of
Parts of Parts of
Rajasthan, In parts of 8 Maharashtra,
Rainfed Maize ‐ Maharashtra, Rajasthan, MP
Maharashtra States Karnataka, AP,
UP and Punjab
and Karnataka and TN
State‐wise Yield Change in 2050 (Based on CSIRO GCM and MIROC GCM)

27. IMPACT Results for Maize
Yield
Production
Area

28. Pulse Production in India
• Pulses are an important source of protein and nutrition
• India is the largest producer and consumer of pulses
• 25 percent of global production
• 27 percent of consumption
• 34 percent of food use
• India is also the world’s top importer of pulses
• 11 percent of world imports (1995‐2001)
• Imports account for only 6 percent of domestic consumption
• Indian Government has focused attention on increasing
pulse production

29. IMPACT Results for Chickpeas
Yield
Production
Area

30. IMPACT Commodity Price Summary
Wheat Maize
Rice Chickpeas

31. IMPACT Net Trade Summary
Wheat Maize
Rice Chickpeas

32. IMPACT Food Security Scenario Outcomes
Malnourished Children (thousands)
Per capita food availability (kcal/person)

33. Strategies to reduce GHG emissions
• Improved land management
• Conservation agriculture, etc
• Agro‐forestry
• Degraded crop and pasture area rehabilitation
• Improvement to nutrition and genetics of ruminant livestock
• Improved storage and capture technologies for manure
conversion into biogas

34. GHG emissions by sector

35. Adaptation strategies
• Change varieties or crop species and planting dates, and
promote crop diversification
• Reduce water‐use inefficiency
• Preserve and enhance plant & animal genetic resources
• Improve crop & residue management
• Develop watersheds in rainfed areas
• Promote agri‐insurance to mitigate income risks

36. Conclusions
• Climate change will make attaining food security through
2050 a challenge
• Agriculture production is likely to increase under
demographic and socioeconomic pressure
• Climate change will reduce yields in many regions by 5‐25%
• Climate change would have little impact on number of
malnourished children
• Technological options are available for climate change
mitigation and adaptation; need is to promote their
adoption