The Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS) and the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) jointly hosted the International Conference on Climate Change and Food Security (ICCCFS) November 6-8, 2011 in Beijing, China. This conference provided a forum for leading international scientists and young researchers to present their latest research findings, exchange their research ideas, and share their experiences in the field of climate change and food security. The event included technical sessions, poster sessions, and social events. The conference results and recommendations were presented at the global climate talks in Durban, South Africa during an official side event on December 1.

1. Climate Risk Management in
China's Agricultural Sector
Claire Hsu
Intern, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)
Presented at the International Conference on Climate Change and Food Security
Organized by the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS) and the
International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)
November 8, 2011 , Beijing, P.R. China

2. Climate Risk Management in China's
Agricultural Sector
I. China's Agricultural Development and its Challenges
Food Safety and Security
Tightening Resource Constraints
Extreme Weather Events
Growing Rural‐Urban Inequality
II. The Impact of Climate Change on China's Agriculture
Direct Impacts of Climate Change on Chinese Agriculture
Indirect Impacts of Climate Change on Chinese Agriculture
Uncertainties of Forecasts
III. Building Agricultural Resilience Through Climate Risk Management
Developing an Agricultural Climate Risk Management Framework
Key Agricultural Climate Risk Management and Adaptation Measures
IV. Summary and Policy Recommendations

3. China's Agricultural Development and its
Challenges
Figure 1: Strengthening China’s food
security (in terms of proportion and
number of people living below $1.25 a day) Figure 2: China’s agricultural production growth rates
Source: Huang and Rozelle (2009)
Source: Fan (2010)

4. China's Agricultural Development and its
Challenges: Food Safety and Security
Greater attention paid to supply
chain management in addition to
enhancing productivity
Many innovations have enabled high‐
quality food production and better‐
linked production to consumers
Deploying food safety policies in
concert with existing self‐sufficiency
policy regime

5. China's Agricultural Development and its
Challenges: Tightening Resource Constraints
Rapid industrialization and urbanization have spurred demand
for land for industrial and residential use
» The acreage of arable land decreased from 1.95 billion mu in 1996 to 1.826
billion mu by the end of 2007, a decrease of 123 million mu over ten years,
with a 12.3 million mu average annual decrease.
» The per capita acreage of arable land decreased from 1.59 mu to 1.39 mu
over the same period.
In 2006, China’s per capita water resources were only 24% of the
world level and agricultural access to these limited resources is
increasingly threatened by:
» Combined changes in temperature and precipitation
» Industrialization and urbanization
» Decreasing water table levels

6. China's Agricultural Development and its
Challenges: Extreme Weather Events
Figure 1: Agricultural areas under disasters in China 1978‐2009 (in kilo hectares)
Source: China National Bureau of Statistics (2010)

7. China's Agricultural Development and its
Challenges: Growing Rural‐Urban Inequality
The rural‐urban income ratio has increased from 1.9 in 1985 to
3.4 in 2009.
China's rural areas remain key in terms of population and
employment. Permanent rural residents account for over half of
the total population, while people employed in rural areas
account for 2/3 of total employment.
The food security concerns of poverty stricken populations are
especially acute and as China’s rural poverty rate is 8.3 percent,
many in these rural areas are most at risk of food insecurity.

8. The Impact of Climate Change on China's
Agriculture: Direct Impacts of Climate Change
on Chinese Agriculture
Direct Impacts of Climate Change on Chinese Agriculture
» Climate Change Impacts on Crop Yields.
» Climate Change Impacts on Cropping Patterns.
» Climate Change Impacts on Livestock.
Indirect Impacts of Climate Change on Chinese Agriculture
» Impacts of Climate Change on Agricultural Production.
» Impacts of Climate Change on Crop Prices and Trade.
» Food Security.
» Regional Implications.
Sources of Uncertainty
» Climate Models and Scenarios.
» Uncertain CO2 Fertilization Effects.
» Other Sources of Uncertainty.

9. Building Agricultural Resilience Through
Climate Risk Management
Building Agricultural Resilience Through Climate Risk Management
Risk: "the combination of the probability of an event and its negative
consequences" (UNISDR 2009)
Figure 2: Sources of hazard, exposure and vulnerability
Sources: Rural Survey Department of the National Bureau of Statistics (2011) and Balzer and Hess (2010)
Sources: Rural Survey Department of the National Bureau of Statistics (2011) and Balzer and Hess (2010)

10. Building Agricultural Resilience Through
Climate Risk Management
Developing an Agricultural Climate Risk Management Framework
Source: Adapted from Jha et al. (2011)

11. Building Agricultural Resilience Through
Climate Risk Management
Building Agricultural Resilience Through Climate Risk Management:
Hazard Assessment
Hazard analysis involves the estimation of the geographic impact of a
risk event in terms of its severity, and frequency, and probability of
future occurrence.
Hazard assessment requires scientific understanding of relevant natural
phenomena, interpretation of historical records of the occurrence of
extreme events, and interaction with projected climate scenarios, and it
provides the basis for the identification of hazard zones, which can be
presented on maps at various scales.

12. Building Agricultural Resilience Through
Climate Risk Management
Building Agricultural Resilience Through Climate Risk Management:
Hazard Assessment
t
Source: United Nations 2007

13. Building Agricultural Resilience Through
Climate Risk Management
Building Agricultural Resilience Through Climate Risk Management:
Exposure Assessment
Exposure is defined as "the total value of elements at risk" and is
quantified using "the number of human lives and the value of the
properties or assets that can potentially be affected by hazards.”
Exposure assessment is used to define the spatial distribution of the
asset(s)‐at‐risk and to categorize them according to the entailed
potential damage according to the relevant levels of hazards.
Comprehensive agricultural exposure analysis should include residential
(population and households) and infrastructural (roads and railways)
exposures in addition to agricultural (crop area and its production)
exposures

14. Building Agricultural Resilience Through
Climate Risk Management
Building Agricultural Resilience Through Climate Risk Management:
Vulnerability Assessment
The vulnerability of a system refers to "the characteristics and
circumstances of a community, system or asset that make it susceptible
to the damaging effects of a hazard.”
There are many dimensions of vulnerability, due to various physical,
social, economic, and environmental factors, such as improper design
and construction of buildings, insufficient protection of assets,
insufficient public information and awareness, limited official
recognition of risks and preparedness measures, and poor
environmental management.
Vulnerability varies significantly within a community and over time and
the goal of vulnerability assessment is to quantify the vulnerability of
assets subjected to hazards

15. Building Agricultural Resilience Through
Climate Risk Management
Building Agricultural Resilience Through Climate Risk Management:
Estimate the Damages and Losses
The probability estimation for specific loss scenarios involves the consideration
of established probabilities of natural event occurrence and expected structural
performance.
Damage to the crop sub‐sector consists of damage to soil, irrigation
infrastructure (mainly in the public sector), irrigation network, and agriculture
buildings and machinery. Crop loss consists of the potential production loss from
seasonal crops (one season) as well as from perennial fruit (over the multi‐year
period required to initially bear fruit) and is estimated using farm gate prices.
Damage to the livestock sub‐sector consists of animal deaths that are due to
climate hazards. Loss refers to the potential production loss from animals over
the multi‐year period required for young animals to start producing milk or meat.

16. Building Agricultural Resilience Through
Climate Risk Management
Building Agricultural Resilience Through Climate Risk Management: Find
the Best Adaptation Options
Figure 5: Climate risk typologies and adaptation strategies (risk layer one: purple;
risk layer two: orange; and risk layer three: red)
Sources: Adapted from Ramasamy (2011), Goodland (n.d.), and Luxbacher and Goodland (n.d.)

17. Building Agricultural Resilience Through
Climate Risk Management
Building Agricultural Resilience Through Climate Risk Management:
Implement the Adaptation Plan
Action‐oriented coordination.
Enhance awareness of adaptation.
Improve inter‐departmental coordination of adaptation policy and action.
Coordinate planned adaptation and autonomous adaptation.
Mainstream adaptation and institutionalize adaptation funding.