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What the Future of Work Means to Us

  1. What the Future of Work Means to Us Issues and Policy Implications
  2. The Future of Work As we go deeper into the Fourth Industrial Revolution, the nature of work—what gets done, who does it, where it’s performed—will dramatically change. This will have huge implications on societies and their workforce, but are we ready for this? How can we prepare?
  3. <a href="">Abstract vector created by macrovector -</a> Robots are taking over routine tasks and will eliminate many low- skill jobs in advanced economies and developing countries (WDR 2019) The fear is that rapid technological advancement will displace human labor, widen income inequality, and further increase the share of informal work.
  4. Initially the World Bank estimated that 60 to 70 percent of present jobs could be automated. However, further estimates show that only a small number of jobs may be fully automated, but at least 30 percent of the activities in another 60 percent of occupations could be automated with technologies currently available (McKinsey Global Institute, 2017)
  5. This is why it is impossible to put a figure on the level of job displacement that will take place overall. - WDR 2019 The prevalence of automation versus labor continues to vary across and within countries. The effects of automation can also be different among countries and using one country’s occupational categories to estimate possible job losses from automation elsewhere is problematic.
  6. Different groups of individuals will also be impacted differently by automation. Young workers may be more affected by automation than older workers. Patterns of potential jobs lost also vary enormously between men and women because of the mix of occupations in which women and men tend to work in, and the activities that make up these occupations.
  7. It is not all doom and gloom, however… Technology provides opportunities to create new jobs, increase productivity, and deliver effective public services and through innovation, technology generates new sectors and tasks.
  8. Automation has disproportionately reduced the demand for less skilled workers, and the innovation process has generally favored the more educated. The premium is rising for skills that cannot be replaced by robots— general cognitive skills such as critical thinking and socio-behavioral skills such as managing and recognizing emotions that enhance teamwork. Workers with these skills are more adaptable in labor markets. Technology is changing not just how people work but also the terms on which they work, creating more new jobs and short-term “gigs.” This makes some work more accessible and flexible, but raises concerns about income instability and the lack of social protection.
  9. Building the skills in demand in the labor market requires strong human capital foundations and lifelong learning. Investing in human capital is the priority in order to make the most of the changing nature of work. Adjusting to the changing nature of work requires enhanced social protection. New ways of protecting people, regardless of employment status, are needed.
  10. What does this mean to us?
  11. Automation could have significant impact in the Philippines. Studies estimate that 48 percent of employees’ activity, equivalent to 18.2 million jobs, could be automated (McKinsey & Company Manila 2019) The largest share of automatable work totaling to 6 million jobs, is in agriculture-related sectors, where occupations involve a large proportion of physical activities in predictable environments. <a href="">Designed by Vecteezy</a>
  12. Other sectors with large numbers of automatable work include retail (3.4 million jobs) and manufacturing (2.4 million jobs). Manufacturing has the highest proportion of automatable work of any sector, at 61 percent. Illustrations by <a href=""></a>
  13. Free Vector Design by: <a href="">Vecteezy!</a> The country’s industries have adopted many technologies albeit in varying degrees of diffusion. The country needs to focus on establishing a solid basic foundation for sustained learning and on accumulating various types of capital, while progressively and systematically closing the existing technological and knowledge gaps. (PIDS 2017)
  14. What should we do? The World Bank identified three areas for policy actions: 1. Human Capital and Lifelong Learning. 2. Social Protection and Labor Policies. 3. Revenue mobilization.
  15. <a href="">Learning Vectors by Vecteezy</a> Early childhood, tertiary education and adult learning outside jobs are increasingly important in meeting the skill demands of future labor markets. 1. Human Capital and Lifelong Learning
  16. 1. Human Capital and Lifelong Learning Early investments in nutrition, health, social protection, and education lay strong foundations for the future acquisition of cognitive and socio-behavioral skills. Prioritizing these investments could pay off significantly for economies, as long as both access and quality are highlighted.
  17. 1. Human Capital and Lifelong Learning The changing nature of work makes tertiary education more important. Technology and integration demands higher-order skills that are transferable across jobs but not acquired through schooling alone. This has enhanced the wage premiums of tertiary graduates and reduced the demand for less educated workers.
  18. 1. Human Capital and Lifelong Learning Aside from changes in the formal educational system, changes will also need to be made to the vocational training system. For one, it will have to work more closely than ever with the private sector to ensure that people are trained with the right skills and will be placed in jobs.
  19. 2. Social Protection and Labor Policies. There is a need for broader and more permanent coverage than most social assistance programs currently provide Expanding social assistance should proceed at the same pace as the mobilization of necessary resources.
  20. 2. Social Protection and Labor Policies. The government must also provide a livable income and use more social assistance to supplement earnings and relax pressure on minimum wages that are set at levels that exceed labor productivity. Unemployment benefits should be provided as income support to the unemployed.
  21. 3. Revenue mobilization Investments in human capital, basic social protection, productive opportunities for the people will be costly. The Government can create fiscal space through a mix of additional revenues from new and existing sources. Potential sources of revenue are imposing value added taxes, excise taxes, and carbon taxes; charging platform companies taxes equal to what other companies are paying; and revisiting energy subsidies.