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Robert Letovsky
        Independent Candidate, Vermont Senate, Chittenden County



1.What is the problem?

2.What I propose to do about it:

-2012 Vermont Economic Security Act;
-2012 State Pension Security Act ;
-2012 Energy Affordability and Reliability Act ;
-2012 Vermont Economic Revitalization Act.

3. Next Steps
It’s a gorgeous day at the beach….what are you complaining
    about? Enjoy the sun, sand, etc. etc. and stop whining!
What’s the problem? Losing our youth – the taxpayers of the
                         future!
200,000
180,000                                   173,940

160,000   147,523
                                      138,959
140,000                 132,372

120,000
100,000                      93,442                 Under 18
               77,510
 80,000                                             Over 65

 60,000
 40,000
 20,000
     0
             2000          2010          2030
Why do grads leave VT?




(Survey data from Dyhrman, Iverson, Redmond, St. Michael’s College MSA Thesis, 2010)
Why is the exodus of young adults a problem?
Problem                             Result                           Example

Hostile perception of Vermont       Lack of good jobs                BLS/Moody’s study Where the jobs
                                                                     will be 2011-2016



Lack of good jobs                   High rate of “export” of young   Median age in Vermont
                                    people

High cost of living                 High rate of “export” of young    Median age in Vermont
                                    people

High rate of “export” of young      Fewer taxpayers >>               - State troopers Chittenden County;
people                              Inadequate tax base              - $3 Billion unfunded pension &
                                                                     health obligations as of 2011

High rate of “export” of young      Fewer families with young        Vermont spends $15,475/student on
people                              children>>>Declining K-12        K-12 vs. $10,499 U.S. average
                                    enrollment /rising costs

Declining K-12 enrollment/ rising   Declining taxpayer support for   Bolton Town Meeting March 12 –
costs                               public school budgets            voters pass resolution to explore
                                                                     school closing!
Vermont’s Report Card 2011-2012

• Forbes “Best States for Business
  2012”: 45th
• Chief Executive Magazine
  “Best/Worst States for Business
  2012”: 38th
• CNBC “America’s Top States
  for Business 2012”: 38th
• Tax Foundation “State Business
  Tax Climate Index Rankings,
  2011-2012: 47th
• Kauffman Foundation
  /Thumbtack.com 2012 Small
  Business Friendliness Survey:
  49th
Why is the exodus of young adults a problem?
Problem                             Result                           Example

Hostile perception of Vermont       Lack of good jobs                BLS/Moody’s study Where the jobs
                                                                     will be 2011-2016



Lack of good jobs                   High rate of “export” of young   Median age in Vermont
                                    people

High cost of living                 High rate of “export” of young    Median age in Vermont
                                    people

High rate of “export” of young      Fewer taxpayers >>               - State troopers Chittenden County;
people                              Inadequate tax base              - $3 Billion unfunded pension &
                                                                     health obligations as of 2011

High rate of “export” of young      Fewer families with young        Vermont spends $15,475/student on
people                              children>>>Declining K-12        K-12 vs. $10,499 U.S. average
                                    enrollment /rising costs

Declining K-12 enrollment/ rising   Declining taxpayer support for   Bolton Town Meeting March 12 –
costs                               public school budgets            voters pass resolution to explore
                                                                     school closing!
2009
       8
Current
                         Expenditure Per
Rank        State          Pupil (FY09)
 1        New York          $18,126
 2     Washington D.C.      $16,408
 3       New Jersey         $16,271
 4        Arkansas          $15,552
 5       Vermont           $15,175
 6        Wyoming           $14,573
 7       Connecticut        $14,531
 8     Massachusetts         $14,118
 9      Rhode Island        $13,707
 10       Maryland          $13,449
            U.S.           $10,499
What am I proposing to do (1): The “I want to be able to afford to live in
      Vermont but don’t want to live with my parents until I’m 40” Act
                                                I
Problem                                         Result of my proposed “act”

Hostile perception of Vermont                   Benchmark Vermont >>>> become “average”
                                                >>>> Rebrand Vermont in the minds of job
                                                creators!



Lack of good jobs                               Attract more economic activity


High cost of living                             Identify regulatory cost escalators -make living
                                                in VT affordable for young people;


Fewer taxpayers by 2030                         Grow tax base to adequately fund key state
                                                services AND honor pension obligations
Fewer families with children >>> declining K-   Have more young families children enrolled in
12 enrollment/rising costs                      K-12 school system
Vermont’s Report Card 2011-2012

• Forbes “Best States for
  Business 2012”: 45th
• Chief Executive Magazine
  “Best/Worst States for
  Business 2012”: 38th
• CNBC “America’s Top States
  for Business 2012”: 38th
• Tax Foundation “State
  Business Tax Climate Index
  Rankings, 2011-2012: 47th
• Kauffman Foundation
  /Thumbtack.com 2012 Small
  Business Friendliness Survey:
  49th
Vermont’s Current Positioning – Taxes (Time, May 2012)
What am I proposing to do (2): The “ I want to be able to retire in dignity
    and not have to work as a Wal-Mart greeter unless I want to” Act.
                                     I
Problem                                Result of my proposed “act”
$3 Billion unfunded pension & health   Transparency for taxpayers and retirees re:
obligations as of 2011                 current and anticipated obligations under
                                       various scenarios

                                       Within 90 days, a report on how VT will
                                       fund pension and health obligations.

                                       Protect commitments made to retirees:
                                       NO changes to current retirees or anyone
                                       within 5 yr. window of retirement.

                                       Avoid unacceptable choices between
                                       honoring commitments to retirees or funding
                                       key state services.
Example of Scenarios regarding VT Pension Obligations
What am I proposing to do (3): “The “I don’t want to have to huddle over a
   fireplace wearing 5 sweaters and reading by candlelight, then wait two hours for a
              bus to get to work because I can’t afford an electric car” Act.
Problem                                             Result of my proposed “act”
High energy costs - VT 39th in avg. retail          Identify why energy costs in Vermont are where
electricity prices                                  they are.

40% of VT electricity from Hydro Quebec @           Give Vermonters an idea of the true impacts of
avg. price $67.91 per MW - 29% higher than the      the takeover of Vermont’s utilities by the
avg. price Hydro Québec charges all its other       government of Quebec
American customers.

2012: Green Mountain Power, Central Vermont
Public Service, and majority of VELCO ALL
owned by units of the government of Quebec (sole
owner of Hydro Quebec)
                                                    Show Vermonters what 90% Renewable Energy
Dec./2011 Shumlin administration                    mandate will cost and how it can be paid for;
“Comprehensive Energy Plan” 90% renewables
by 2050 – no indication of costs/ subsidies/taxes   Develop an energy plan that addresses
required.                                           economic, environmental and security of supply
                                                    issues rather than just one of these.
Annual Average Electricity Price Comparison by State   (National Avg. 9.83 cents/kw hr.)


•   Rank State         Average Electricity Rate for

•   1    Wyoming      6.20
•   2    Idaho         6.54
•   3    Washington 6.66
•   4    Kentucky      6.73
•   5    Utah          6.94
•   6    North Dakota 7.11
•   7    Arkansas      7.28
•   8    West Virginia 7.45
•   9    Nebraska      7.52
•   10   Oregon        7.56
•   11   Oklahoma      7.59
•   12   Iowa          7.66
•   13   Indiana       7.67
•   14   Missouri      7.78
•   15   Louisiana     7.80
•   16   South Dakota 7.82
•   17   Montana       7.88
•   18   Kansas        8.35
•   19   New Mexico 8.40
•   20   Minnesota     8.41
•   21   S. Carolina    8.49
•   22   Mississippi    8.59
•   23   Tennessee      8.61
•   24   N. Carolina    8.67
•   25   Virginia      8.69
•   26   Georgia       8.87
Factors to Consider re: Renewables
•   NIMBY (e.g. Lowell Mountain)




•   Intermittent energy vs. base-load demand.
Factors to Consider re: Renewables (2)
                         Source: U.S. Department of Energy

• Subsidies? Who pays?
What am I proposing to do (4): The “Why don’t we do something to
           boost the successful businesses we already have?” Act.

Problem                              IResult of my proposed “act”
Relative Lack of good jobs            Support continued growth in already successful
                                      industrial clusters in Vermont:
                                      - Design/Graphics (incl. web design)
                                      - Energy efficiency
                                      - Food
                                      - Furniture
                                      - Higher education

                                      Promote public policies that can jump-start
                                      emerging industrial clusters:
                                      - Aerospace
                                      - Medical equipment/supplies
Will You Help Me Fight for Vermont’s future?
• Contacts: Others who share my/your
  concerns;
• Time?
• Contact the media: Why is this issue
  being ignored?
• Other support?

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Office web site presentation

  • 1. Robert Letovsky Independent Candidate, Vermont Senate, Chittenden County 1.What is the problem? 2.What I propose to do about it: -2012 Vermont Economic Security Act; -2012 State Pension Security Act ; -2012 Energy Affordability and Reliability Act ; -2012 Vermont Economic Revitalization Act. 3. Next Steps
  • 2. It’s a gorgeous day at the beach….what are you complaining about? Enjoy the sun, sand, etc. etc. and stop whining!
  • 3. What’s the problem? Losing our youth – the taxpayers of the future! 200,000 180,000 173,940 160,000 147,523 138,959 140,000 132,372 120,000 100,000 93,442 Under 18 77,510 80,000 Over 65 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 2000 2010 2030
  • 4. Why do grads leave VT? (Survey data from Dyhrman, Iverson, Redmond, St. Michael’s College MSA Thesis, 2010)
  • 5. Why is the exodus of young adults a problem? Problem Result Example Hostile perception of Vermont Lack of good jobs BLS/Moody’s study Where the jobs will be 2011-2016 Lack of good jobs High rate of “export” of young Median age in Vermont people High cost of living High rate of “export” of young Median age in Vermont people High rate of “export” of young Fewer taxpayers >> - State troopers Chittenden County; people Inadequate tax base - $3 Billion unfunded pension & health obligations as of 2011 High rate of “export” of young Fewer families with young Vermont spends $15,475/student on people children>>>Declining K-12 K-12 vs. $10,499 U.S. average enrollment /rising costs Declining K-12 enrollment/ rising Declining taxpayer support for Bolton Town Meeting March 12 – costs public school budgets voters pass resolution to explore school closing!
  • 6. Vermont’s Report Card 2011-2012 • Forbes “Best States for Business 2012”: 45th • Chief Executive Magazine “Best/Worst States for Business 2012”: 38th • CNBC “America’s Top States for Business 2012”: 38th • Tax Foundation “State Business Tax Climate Index Rankings, 2011-2012: 47th • Kauffman Foundation /Thumbtack.com 2012 Small Business Friendliness Survey: 49th
  • 7. Why is the exodus of young adults a problem? Problem Result Example Hostile perception of Vermont Lack of good jobs BLS/Moody’s study Where the jobs will be 2011-2016 Lack of good jobs High rate of “export” of young Median age in Vermont people High cost of living High rate of “export” of young Median age in Vermont people High rate of “export” of young Fewer taxpayers >> - State troopers Chittenden County; people Inadequate tax base - $3 Billion unfunded pension & health obligations as of 2011 High rate of “export” of young Fewer families with young Vermont spends $15,475/student on people children>>>Declining K-12 K-12 vs. $10,499 U.S. average enrollment /rising costs Declining K-12 enrollment/ rising Declining taxpayer support for Bolton Town Meeting March 12 – costs public school budgets voters pass resolution to explore school closing!
  • 8. 2009 8
  • 9. Current Expenditure Per Rank State Pupil (FY09) 1 New York $18,126 2 Washington D.C. $16,408 3 New Jersey $16,271 4 Arkansas $15,552 5 Vermont $15,175 6 Wyoming $14,573 7 Connecticut $14,531 8 Massachusetts $14,118 9 Rhode Island $13,707 10 Maryland $13,449 U.S. $10,499
  • 10. What am I proposing to do (1): The “I want to be able to afford to live in Vermont but don’t want to live with my parents until I’m 40” Act I Problem Result of my proposed “act” Hostile perception of Vermont Benchmark Vermont >>>> become “average” >>>> Rebrand Vermont in the minds of job creators! Lack of good jobs Attract more economic activity High cost of living Identify regulatory cost escalators -make living in VT affordable for young people; Fewer taxpayers by 2030 Grow tax base to adequately fund key state services AND honor pension obligations Fewer families with children >>> declining K- Have more young families children enrolled in 12 enrollment/rising costs K-12 school system
  • 11. Vermont’s Report Card 2011-2012 • Forbes “Best States for Business 2012”: 45th • Chief Executive Magazine “Best/Worst States for Business 2012”: 38th • CNBC “America’s Top States for Business 2012”: 38th • Tax Foundation “State Business Tax Climate Index Rankings, 2011-2012: 47th • Kauffman Foundation /Thumbtack.com 2012 Small Business Friendliness Survey: 49th
  • 12. Vermont’s Current Positioning – Taxes (Time, May 2012)
  • 13. What am I proposing to do (2): The “ I want to be able to retire in dignity and not have to work as a Wal-Mart greeter unless I want to” Act. I Problem Result of my proposed “act” $3 Billion unfunded pension & health Transparency for taxpayers and retirees re: obligations as of 2011 current and anticipated obligations under various scenarios Within 90 days, a report on how VT will fund pension and health obligations. Protect commitments made to retirees: NO changes to current retirees or anyone within 5 yr. window of retirement. Avoid unacceptable choices between honoring commitments to retirees or funding key state services.
  • 14. Example of Scenarios regarding VT Pension Obligations
  • 15. What am I proposing to do (3): “The “I don’t want to have to huddle over a fireplace wearing 5 sweaters and reading by candlelight, then wait two hours for a bus to get to work because I can’t afford an electric car” Act. Problem Result of my proposed “act” High energy costs - VT 39th in avg. retail Identify why energy costs in Vermont are where electricity prices they are. 40% of VT electricity from Hydro Quebec @ Give Vermonters an idea of the true impacts of avg. price $67.91 per MW - 29% higher than the the takeover of Vermont’s utilities by the avg. price Hydro Québec charges all its other government of Quebec American customers. 2012: Green Mountain Power, Central Vermont Public Service, and majority of VELCO ALL owned by units of the government of Quebec (sole owner of Hydro Quebec) Show Vermonters what 90% Renewable Energy Dec./2011 Shumlin administration mandate will cost and how it can be paid for; “Comprehensive Energy Plan” 90% renewables by 2050 – no indication of costs/ subsidies/taxes Develop an energy plan that addresses required. economic, environmental and security of supply issues rather than just one of these.
  • 16.
  • 17. Annual Average Electricity Price Comparison by State (National Avg. 9.83 cents/kw hr.) • Rank State Average Electricity Rate for • 1 Wyoming 6.20 • 2 Idaho 6.54 • 3 Washington 6.66 • 4 Kentucky 6.73 • 5 Utah 6.94 • 6 North Dakota 7.11 • 7 Arkansas 7.28 • 8 West Virginia 7.45 • 9 Nebraska 7.52 • 10 Oregon 7.56 • 11 Oklahoma 7.59 • 12 Iowa 7.66 • 13 Indiana 7.67 • 14 Missouri 7.78 • 15 Louisiana 7.80 • 16 South Dakota 7.82 • 17 Montana 7.88 • 18 Kansas 8.35 • 19 New Mexico 8.40 • 20 Minnesota 8.41 • 21 S. Carolina 8.49 • 22 Mississippi 8.59 • 23 Tennessee 8.61 • 24 N. Carolina 8.67 • 25 Virginia 8.69 • 26 Georgia 8.87
  • 18. Factors to Consider re: Renewables • NIMBY (e.g. Lowell Mountain) • Intermittent energy vs. base-load demand.
  • 19. Factors to Consider re: Renewables (2) Source: U.S. Department of Energy • Subsidies? Who pays?
  • 20. What am I proposing to do (4): The “Why don’t we do something to boost the successful businesses we already have?” Act. Problem IResult of my proposed “act” Relative Lack of good jobs Support continued growth in already successful industrial clusters in Vermont: - Design/Graphics (incl. web design) - Energy efficiency - Food - Furniture - Higher education Promote public policies that can jump-start emerging industrial clusters: - Aerospace - Medical equipment/supplies
  • 21. Will You Help Me Fight for Vermont’s future? • Contacts: Others who share my/your concerns; • Time? • Contact the media: Why is this issue being ignored? • Other support?