1. It is an honor to be here, and especially with
two such distinguished leaders of intelligence
here with all of us to reflect on how Chile can
optimize its national intelligence in a time of
globalization.
I must begin with thanks to my handler, Lcda
Carolina Sancho. I am a brute. Any
gentleness and diplomacy that you see in this
briefing is a result of her careful and most
b i fi i lt f h f l d t
professional influence.
1

2. I have nine sections, each section has four
illustrations. This preface has only two
charts. There is also an Epilogue with the 26
new rules for the new craft of intelligence,
that will help bring this very complicated
briefing into perspective.
2

3. These are the key negative trends. My
mother was born in Colombia, and my roots
go back to Spain in the 17th century. I am
acutely conscious of the Open Veins of Latin
America and hope that Chile takes both its
own work in open sources and my vision
forward, perhaps to UNASUR, to help in
addressing these negative trends.
3

4. Fortunately, there are positive countervailing
trends.
All of these positive trends are centered on
All of these positive trends are centered on
public information sharing and public sense‐
making—in one word: OPEN.
The era of rule by secrecy is over. Now we
The era of rule by secrecy is over Now we
must empower the public with education and
information so that the public can create
infinite wealth.
infinite wealth.
4

5. The USA needs to improve its own policies
and practices if it wishes to continue
providing global leadership. This is an area
where Chile can help the southern
hemisphere—Africa, Americas, and Asia—
explore the benefits of multinational
information‐sharing and sense‐making,
independent of the North whether East or
West.
5

6. The Americans spend $75 billion a year on
the 10‐20% of the information that can be
stolen, while ignoring open sources in 183
languages they do not speak—everything in
red here. In my opinion—less $25 billion for
spies and secrecy—this is money that could
be better spent on integrating education,
open sources of intelligence, and research
against all ten high level threats to humanity.
6

7. At the same time, the Americans do not
process what they collect, and they have not
come to grips with the necessary realization
that they are spending too much on technical
collection that is not processed—and
especially not processed in real time, and
next to nothing on open and human sources
with deep expertise.
7

8. General Tony Zinni, now retired from the US
Marine Corps, said this just after leaving his
position as Commander in Chief of the US
Central Command.
$75 billion a year, and this is the best the
q
American secret world can do. In Iraq and
Afghanistan, similar comments have been
made by other general officers.
8

9. A major part of the problem with US
intelligence is that it has never outgrown the
first era of secret war, it substituted
technology for thinking during the Cold War,
and it never really adopted Sherman Kent’s
focus on Strategic Analysis using mostly open
sources.
I called for the creation of a Smart Nation in
1995, and this is my focus, one country, one
continent, at a time.
9

10. There are some major differences between
intelligence in the past and 21st Century
intelligence.
10

11. The “new craft of intelligence” is personal,
public, & political. Citizens are “intelligence
minutemen.” The tendency of spies to
obsess on secrets is avoided, with a deep
appreciation of history, a multinational
approach to sharing the burden of global
coverage, and the ability to educate and then
embrace the minds of all citizens all the
time—this is how one creates a Smart Nation.
11

12. I conceptualized the four warrior classes in
1992 or so, and ultimately briefed this to the
Army Strategy Conference in 1998, but to no
effect.
Neither the political nor the bureaucratic
elements of the US Government have made
any serious changes in how we train, equip,
and organize our Cold War forces.
We persist in spending money on expensive
We persist in spending money on expensive
technologies, while avoiding thinking.
Version 4.4 12

13. This illustration is also from the 1990’s, and
still not understood by the US Government.
No amount of money and no amount of
national oversight can provide reliable
security for the private sector. The private
sector must be educated and incentivized to
take the lead. I sounded the alarm on cyber‐
security along with several others in 1994,
and we still have a very vulnerable
infrastructure in banking, energy, and
i f t t i b ki d
communications.
13

14. This illustration shows the strategic analytic
matrix that I created for the Earth Intelligence
Network, a non‐profit. The ten high‐level
threats were identified by the United Nations
High Level Threat Panel, the policies and the
demographic challengers by myself.
The two red dots show where the Americans
are spending all their money. They are not
thinking strategically, and they are ignoring
all of the other threats.
14

15. It is not enough to aspire to access all open
sources of information. One must also
understand the implications and limitations
of globalized information.
15

16. The world of knowledge, especially academic
knowledge but also commercial and
government knowledge, is very fragmented
to the point of incoherence.
It will take twenty years, but eventually I
believe that Cognitive Science and Collective
Intelligence—the latter the humanities and
social science side of thinking, will create a
World Brain and Web 4.0. There is no reason
why this cannot start right here in Chile.
h thi t t t i ht h i Chil
16

17. Here I capture two realities. The first is that
most information that is useful is not
published at all, or published in analog form.
Of all the information that is published in
digital form, only a fraction is easily
accessible, and generally not the “deep web”
unindexed information or the “C Drive”
personal collections.
At the same time, we have a real problem
with lies, distortions, and propaganda as the
main output of organizations.
17

18. The only practical way to approach our need
for holistic comprehensive understanding of
our world, and of the implications of any
proposed course of action, is to aspire to
collect, process, and exploit all information in
all languages all the time.
Humans, not computers, are a major part of
the solution—smart humans collaborating
with one another are what make a Smart
Nation, NOT computers.
18

19. The old intelligence paradigm is the linear
The old intelligence paradigm is the linear
paradigm, in which the analyst isolates the
consumer from the collector and the collector
isolates the analyst from the source.
isolates the analyst from the source
The new intelligence paradigm is the diamond
paradigm that recognizes that very often the
most valuable service an analyst or collector
most valuable service an analyst or collector
can render is to put the consumer with a
question in touch with a source who can create
a tailored answer in real time.
a tailored answer in real time
19

20. I am not here to persuade your government
of the value of open sources of information. I
have already done that for 90 governments.
Here I just want to touch on four highlights,
everything else is at my website, Phi Beta
Iota, the Public Intelligence Blog.
20

21. First, open everything is the future There
First “open everything” is the future. There
will still be a need for spies and secrecy, but on
balance, we must eliminate most barriers to
information sharing and we must empower
the human minds with every possible form of
openness. DIVERSITY is the root of
INNOVATION, and it is INNOVATION that
creates INFINITE WEALTH.
creates INFINITE WEALTH
Open Spectrum—including open cyber‐
security—is often neglected. It is part of
creating a Smart Nation.
creating a Smart Nation.
21

22. I often find that even the most educated
forget that there are four levels of analysis—
the strategic, the operational, the tactical,
and the technical—and the value of open
sources at each of those levels is not well
understood.
Here are just a few examples.
22

23. These are the eight tribes of intelligence
These are the eight tribes of intelligence
that can together create a robust
information commons and a Smart Nation.
We spend too much time on the 20% that is
private or secret, and not enough time
sharing the 80% that is not secret.
This is a mind‐set change, this is not about
money. For example, Chile could suggest
F l Chil ld t
to UNASUR the enormous value of what is
not being shared, and encourage the
creation of a secure and profitable
creation of a secure and profitable
Information Commons for the South.
23

24. I have dealt in the past with government
officials who fear open sources of
information. Here are the four major
quadrants of information, divided by secret
or not secret, centralized or distributed.
y g
The key to winning the hearts and minds of
those that manage the secret world is to
promise them a copy, instantly, of all open
sources that are available. In return, they
agree not to classify or try to control the
open sources.
24

25. I will speak to the eight tribes of intelligence
in a little bit more detail.
25

26. Alvin Toffler is a friend and we have spoken
together on occasion. One day, after a
luncheon with the US military intelligence
leaders, we were in my car and he said “they
don’t want to leave their box.” That one
comment inspired this chart, and this is how I
came to conceptualize the eight tribes of
intelligence that must ALL be engaged in
information‐sharing and sense‐making, if one
is to have a Smart Nation.
i t h S t N ti
26

27. Governments are the beneficiaries, not the
primary drivers, in the Open Source
Intelligence domain. Here I provide three
illustrations that together show the
importance of ensuring that all
governments—led by the military as the only
truly disciplined force—do OUTREACH so as
to harness the “green” or unclassified
information that is readily available from
each of the seven (or eight) tribes of
h f th ( i ht) t ib f
intelligence.
27

28. I have had an opportunity to work for the
United Nations as well as many governments
and a lesser number of corporations. I
believe that most organizations are as shown
here, with severe barriers that prevent
accessing the rich range of useful relevant
information that can be obtained from the
eight tribes of intelligence. The information
reaching the top officials is simply not the
best available.
b t il bl
28

29. This is one depiction of how a Smart Nation
might choose to organize itself. As a military
officer myself, I feel the military is the most
disciplined and capable element for service
as the “center”, with government and law
enforcement comprising the next circle of
sharing.
The other five tribes are shown in a way that
reflects their general autonomy, but shows
the possibilities of sharing toward the center
of the Smart Nation (and back).
29

30. It is fashionable these days to talk about “the
Cloud.” All this really means is that you
should—in theory—be able to access the
information you need in the form you need it,
when you need it, without having to worry
about software, hardware, or other details.
You will find that Human Intelligence is the
key, NOT technical investment.
30

31. This illustration is taken from my recent
monograph for the Strategic Studies Institute
on HUMAN INTELLIGENCE (HUMINT): All
Humans, All Minds, All the Time. The US
military does a terrible job of managing all
fifteen types of human intelligence that I
identify here.
31

32. This illustration emphasizes the reality that
there are four quadrants for information
operations—most are stuck in the first
quadrant, data mining of internal
information.
This illustration also emphasizes the vital
importance of broad cell phone access, and
the importance of feeding open sources to
the secret world in part to keep them from
trying to control the open world.
t i t t l th ld
32

33. Here I illustrate the “six bubbles” that are
needed to create a smart community, a smart
nation, or more grandly, the World Brain and
Global Game.
Much more detail is available, such a global
construct could easily be constructed in Chile,
centered in Chile.
33

34. There are more complex depictions of what
There are more complex depictions of what
humans need to be intellectually
productive. Here I show the eight basic
functions that I believe can be offered
within a national cloud at no cost to the
within a national cloud at no cost to the
public, and with enormous benefits for all
eight tribes of intelligence.
Imagine something like this for Bolivia, or
Peru, or the South Pacific where
P h S h P ifi h
international corporations are destroying
long‐term sea life for the sake of short‐term
profit.
34

35. In these final three sections I address what I
In these final three sections I address what I
believe to be both an achievable vision and
an essential vision for Chile as a leader of
multinational multiagency information
sharing and sense‐making, perhaps and for
example within UNASUR first, and then
across the Southern Hemisphere starting
with key countries such as South Africa and
with key countries such as South Africa and
Indonesia. Brazil is doing something along
these lines, but based on treaties and trade
agreements rather than information.
Information can change the game!
35

36. UNASUR has enormous potential. Here I
simply list the elements of the M4IS2
acronym.
In the intelligence world, disciplines are
related to collection, i.e. signals, imagery,
human, and others.
,
What academics might call disciplines are
referred to here as domains, a term that can
also apply to policy domains such as
also apply to policy domains such as
agriculture or energy or water.
36

37. Do not expect leadership from the
Americans. Chile is responsible for Chile, and
the individual countries of UNASUR for their
collective fortunes.
I devised this slide a year ago to advance
public understanding of what it means for a
nation to be intelligent.
We must adopt Buckminster Fuller’s goal of
creating a world that works for 100% of
humanity.
h it
37

38. Military officers are trained on the principles
of war, we use the acronym MOOSEMUSS to
remember these nine principles. I have
created principles for peace along the same
lines.
g g
Sun Tzu has it right to begin with: the acme of
skill is to defeat the enemy without fighting.
Better yet, have no enemies, have only co‐
creators of a prosperous world at peace.
38

39. The cost of war has never been properly and
The cost of war has never been properly and
publicly evaluated in relation to the cost of
creating a prosperous world at peace.
Now that we are all more sensitive to both the
N th t ll iti t b th th
cost of war and the cost to the public of
businesses that externalize 75% of the “true
cost of their products and services the way is
cost” of their products and services, the way is
open for better policies. Chile has an
opportunity help UNASUR and the Southern
Hemisphere to create public intelligence that in
Hemisphere to create public intelligence that in
turn nurtures peace and prosperity for all.
39

40. I notice with respect that Chile may be the
least corrupt of all the nations in South
America, and I also notice with respect how
few died in the earthquake because Chile has
building standards and applied those
standards prior to the earthquake.
I believe Chile has an opportunity, to become
a global leader not just a regional leader,
using the one thing that it has in abundance:
human minds.
40

41. This is how I see it. First, experiment with
what can be known by all eight tribes
organized into task forces, perhaps three in
all—one on Peru, one on Bolivia, and one on
the South Pacific.
, p
Next, take those lessons learned and expand
with more task forces to examine how much
information can be shared, and how sense‐
making can lead to profit and progress for all
eight tribes across the Southern Hemisphere.
41

42. No one else, to my knowledge, has this strategic
No one else to my knowledge has this strategic
analytic model in operation. It is complex but
the point is simple: what is good for one part of
the model may be very bad for all the other
parts.
In the US we are using water we don’t have to
grown grain we cannot eat to fuel cars that
should not exist.
h ld t i t
Health is a good central point. Use public
intelligence to create a healthy Chile, a healthy
UNASUR, a healthy Southern Hemisphere.
UNASUR a healthy Southern Hemisphere
42

43. This is an example of a Range of Gifts table
that uses information to harmonize both the
understanding of needs down to the village
level, and the satisfaction of those needs by
multiple parties.
Information harmonizes in a voluntary
fashion. It is not possible to command and
control the eight tribes and especially the
eight tribes of other countries, but it is
possible to harmonize their spending and
ibl t h i th i di d
behavior using shared information.
43

44. The five billion poor whose demographic mass will
The five billion poor whose demographic mass will
determine the future of Earth do not have time to go to
schools, but they are intelligent and they can speak and
read a language, so we should give them free cell
p
phones and connect them to free knowledge. Not only
g y
can they be educated one cell call at a time, and
consequently create infinite stabilizing wealth, but they
become a global early warning network for disease,
crime, environmental degradation, and so on.
Cell phones are now available that do not require
electrical recharging. A focused experiment on Chile’s
poorest region, handing out free cell phones while
p
providing a call center and a nation‐wide network of
g
volunteers to answer questions, could be an example
for all other countries.
44

45. And now to close with four illustrations of
“what is to be done.”
45

46. I knew in the 1990’s that we need four forces,
not one. Every country must be ready to
protect itself from other countries—that is a
given. What is NOT done well by any country
I know of is the training, equipping, and
organizing of forces dedicated to small wars,
to waging peace, and to defending the
homeland from unconventional threats
including cyber‐attacks and infectious
diseases.
di
Version 4.4 46

47. The fastest way to improve common
understanding of regional challenges of
common is to establish a regional
information. Such centers can begin with
open sources, and rapidly expand to include
integrated clandestine and technical
collection and action teams, for example, on
the Tri‐Border Region and against predatory
multinational corporations and criminal
gangs.
47

48. I have a special faith in the military as a logical
I have a special faith in the military as a logical
disciplined capability that can help the other
seven tribes share information and make
sense together. Military to military ties are
generally very strong, with very good
communications, and for this reason I see the
military as the essential element in both
creating national centers, and in creating a
creating national centers and in creating a
regional center with two‐way reachback to
every country in UNASUR and then other
countries or new regional centers for South
Asia and Southern Africa.
48

49. This is the strategy that I have devised for any
country or region that wishes to achieve
prosperity and peace. It begins with
accepting reality, sharing information openly,
coming together across all boundaries to
focus on the long‐term.
Faith matters—accountability matters.
Ultimately Gandhi had it right, not just
because he sought the truth, but because he
changed the game. Could Chile and UNASUR
h d th C ld Chil d UNASUR
have an opportunity to change the game?
49

50. After I completed my planned briefing, it
occurred to me that a very quick review of
the 26 new rules for the new craft of
intelligence would be helpful in connecting
my vision to your reality and your
possibilities. I will read them but not explain
them—the chapter with explanations is free
online.
50

51. Decision Support is the Raison D être
Decision‐Support is the Raison D'être
Value‐Added Comes from Analysis, Not Secret
Sources
Global Coverage Matters More
g
Non‐Traditional Threats Are of Paramount
Importance
Intelligence without Translation is Ignorant
g g
Source Balance Matters More
“Two Levels Down“
Processing Matters More, Becomes Core
Processing Matters More Becomes Core
Competency
51

52. Cultural Intelligence is Fundamental
Geospatial and Time Tagging is Vital
Global Open Source Benchmarking
Global Open Source Benchmarking
Counterintelligence Matters More
Cross‐Fertilization Matters More
Decentralized Intelligence Matters More
Collaborative Work and Informal
Communications Rise
New Value is in Content + Context + Speed
52

53. Collection Based on Gaps versus Priorities
Collection Based on Gaps versus Priorities
Collection Doctrine Grows in Sophistication
Citizen "Intelligence Minutemen" are Vital
Production Based on Needs vs. Capabilities
P d ti B d N d C biliti
Strategic Intelligence Matters More
Budget Intelligence Is Mandatory
Public Intelligence Drives Public Policy
Analysts are Managers
New Measures of Merit
Multi‐Lateral Burden‐Sharing is Vital
53

54. Could Chile and, for example, UNASUR, have
the ability to change the game?
Yes we can. (Si se puede). Thank you.
Yes we can. (Si se puede). Thank you.
54