Intergenerational Commission slides - demographic trends and their impact on living standards

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A presentation by Resolution Foundation's David Finch for the event 'Living longer and living differently', part of the Intergenerational Commission.

Notícias e política

Live long and prosper?
Demographic trends and their impact on
living standards

People are living longer
Intergencommission.org 2
Source: ONS, 2014-based UK and England & Wales lifetables
Average expected years of life at birth for females by generation

Each generation is living longer than the next (on average)
Intergencommission.org 3
Survival rates for different generations, Males, 1896 to 2015
Source: ONS, 2014-based UK and England & Wales lifetables

Living longer is something to be celebrated but raises a challenge
too
Intergencommission.org 4
• Individuals need higher incomes to sustain longer
lives

Living longer is something to be celebrated but raises a challenge
too
Intergencommission.org 5
• Individuals need higher incomes to sustain longer
lives
• Collectively there are concerns that an ageing
population will raise the tax burden (or lower
available support) for younger generations

Living longer is something to be celebrated but raises a challenge
too
Intergencommission.org 6
• Individuals need higher incomes to sustain longer
lives
• Collectively there are concerns that an ageing
population will raise the tax burden (or lower
available support) for younger generations
• But we are not our grandparents. How we live is
dynamic, not a static thing

Changing lives: 1) investing more in their education
Intergencommission.org 7
Source: ONS, 2014-based UK lifetables and England & Wales lifetables
Proportion of children in full-time education, 1953 to 2010

Changing lives: 2) having children at later ages (and fewer)
Intergencommission.org 8
Proportion of women by age of mother having first child
Source: ONS, Live births in England and Wales, 2013

Changing lives: 3) working longer
Intergencommission.org 9
Female employment rates by age for different generations
Source: Resolution Foundation analysis using Labour Force Survey microdata

Changing state: Not just dealing with longevity, but also cohort
size. That complicates things. There are a lot of baby boomers
Intergencommission.org 10
Number of births by years (millions)
Source: ONS, UK & England Wales live births, 2015

The Baby boomer generation boosted the young population in
1950s and 1960s…
Intergencommission.org 11
UK population by generation, 1965
Source: ONS, mid-year population estimates, UK

Boosted the working age population in the following decades…
Intergencommission.org 12
UK population by generation, 1985
Source: ONS, mid-year population estimates, UK

Boosted the working age population in the following decades…
Intergencommission.org 13
UK population by generation, 2010
Source: ONS, mid-year population estimates, UK

…and are are now set to speed the increase in the ageing of the
population
Intergencommission.org 14
UK population by generation, 2036
Source: ONS, 2014-based population projections, UK

Traditional support ratio suggests a striking problem about to hit,
but this is too simplistic an argument
Intergencommission.org 15
Support ratio (ages 20-64/(under 20 + 65 plus))
Source: ONS, 2014-based population projections, mid-year population estimates, UK

An ‘effective’ support ratio (working v non-working population) is
less dramatic – though still simplistic
Intergencommission.org 16
Effective support ratio (employees/non-working)
Source: ONS, 2014-based population projections, mid-year population estimates, UK, Labour Market Statistics, BoE historic data

Longer lives bring opportunity and challenge
Intergencommission.org 17
• Demographics are changing people’s approach to life,
work and family formation
• Younger generations are set to benefit from continued
gains in longevity
• But they also face different challenges to older
generations, particularly from work, housing, wealth
and retirement planning
• These are all issues the Intergenerational Commission
will focus on in the coming months
Source: ONS, 2014-based UK lifetables and England & Wales lifetables

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