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Community
Investment and
Development
Trends and Forecasts
2016/2017
Reana Rossouw
Next Generation
Consultants
Who we are:
Next Generation Consultants helps organisations to
become more responsible and sustainable.
In the community/social investment and
development sectors - we provide consulting and
advisory, research and engagement, training and
facilitation, impact assessment and due diligence
services.
We have developed the Impact Investment Index™
- a methodology that measures the impact and
return on investment of community/social
investment.
We are recognised as industry/subject experts and
thought leaders within the sustainable/social/
community development sectors.
2016/04/10 Next Generation Consultants 2
Please see: http://www.slideshare.net/Reana1/measuring-impact-and-return-on-investment-of-corporate-social-investment-and-community-development AND
http://www.slideshare.net/Reana1/evidence-of-impact-and-return-on-investment-40906503
Background:
• Our vision
• To continuously contribute to increased socio
economic impact and ensure enhanced shared value
• Our Context
• Global research – both developed and developing
countries with a specific focus on continental and
regional trends
• Local interpretation – considering emerging global
best practice and combining it with indigenous insight
and knowledge
• Research methodology - literature reviews, personal
interviews with key influencers and recognised leaders,
focus groups with intermediaries and beneficiaries,
internet surveys
• Benchmarked
• Our Impact Investment Index (III)™ also informs our
trend report. The III consists the outcomes of our
impact assessments which have considered over R3
billion worth of social/community investment. Over
600 programs, 15 focus areas, 15 dimensions of impact,
25 dimensions of return, and a library of more than
5000 indicators.
2016/04/10 Next Generation Consultants 3
To recap:
2013/2014
Trends
A brave new world - Evidence of
collaboration
Flipsides of the coin - Increased
giving/increased expectations
Lean and mean - Impact and
outcome of the recession
The next BIG thing - ESG, Impact
Investment, SharedValue, SED,
Social Entrepreneurship
The war on ideas -The growth of
flagship/signature programs
Green/Blue is the new black -The
rise of funding for the environment
Alphabet Soup -The rise of
governance and compliance
NewAge Stuff - SET committees,
Baseline Studies, Human Rights
based funding, Engagement, new
guidelines
Hindsight is perfect sight -
Spectacular failures, theory of
change vs theory of practice vs
theory of grantmaking
Dangerous half truths - Poverty
alleviation vs Poverty reduction vs
Poverty eradication
Fixation on Numbers - Overemphasis on
quantitative impact
Dichotomies - Scalability vs focus,
replicability vs results, responsiveness vs
responsibility
Keeping up with the Jones’s - New vs old
investment/development models
Volunteerism is cool - Growth in
employee/customer/supplier/network
involvement
Please give that man a fish -The end of
cliché’s
I know what you did last summer -
Community activism
Local is lekker - Local heroes/local place
based development
Status quo is not an option - Failure of current
M & E practices
A horse-A horse for my kingdom - Ethical
grantmaking
Two hills ahead
What we know vs what we don’t
know
What we say vs what we do
2016/04/10 Next Generation Consultants 4
Please see: http://www.slideshare.net/Reana1/csi-professionals-briefing-2014-trends
To recap:
2014/2015
Trends
Cross Roads orTipping
Point
Between the rock and
hard place – budget
cuts, program cuts,
resource cuts, new
competitors, legislation
and compliance
The good, the bad and the
ugly
The Good - Sweet spot
– integrating
economic,
environmental, social
development
The Bad – unsuccessful
development models,
lack of engagement,
lack of evidence
The ugly –
discriminatory,
unethical, failed
programs
It’s all about business -The business
of funding vs the business of
development
It is not business as usual -
Accountability, transparency,
governance and compliance
dominates
Heightened focus on performance -
Proof: Demonstrate impact, return,
successful, measurable, meaningful
Growing focus on issues - Holistic,
integrated, systemic/sustainable
development
Creating shared value -The
business of business vs the business
of development
Follow the (development plan) -
Youth, skills, infrastructure, local
economic development, national
development plan
2016/04/10 Next Generation Consultants 5
Please see: http://www.slideshare.net/Reana1/2015-trends-and-forecasts-corporate-social-investment-and-community-development-40906549
Whatis
evident:
More of the
same won’tbe
good enough
Whatis
required:
New thinking–
newmodels –
new
knowledge
2016/04/10 Next Generation Consultants 6
THINGSARE NOT CHANGING
THINGSARE NOT CHANGING
FAST ENOUGH
THINGSARE GETTINGWORSE
Changes:
The value chain
2016/04/10 Next Generation Consultants 7
Government:
The strategic goals of the
DSD is:
Review and reform
social welfare services
and financing
Improve and expand
ECD provision
Deepen social
assistance and extend
the scope of the
contributory social
security system
Enhance the
capabilities of
communities to
achieve sustainable
livelihoods and
household food
security
Strengthen
coordination,
integration, planning,
monitoring and
evaluation of services
More than half of all
households in SA
benefit from
government’s social
assistance program
SA’s social assistance
system is one of the
largest in Africa and is
government’s most direct
means of combating
poverty. Spending
accounts to 3% of GDP
and is projected to rise
from R118 billion in 2014
to R145 billion by 2016.
The child support and old
age grants are the 2
largest programs –
constituting about 75% of
total spending.
Others are the War
Veterans, Disability, Grant
in Aid, Foster Child and
Care Dependency grants
The NDA focus on food
security, ECD, ED and
income generation
programs
The NYDA focus on
national youth services,
education and skills
development
2016/04/10 Next Generation Consultants 8
Social Development: Pocket Guide 2014/2015
Funders:
Changing role of funders
Forecasters, particularly from northern Europe and the US, report
that ideas about the role of philanthropic capital are changing. 3
Distinct types of grantmakers are evident:
Reactive or Demand-led: Funders judge applications on merit
and are responsive to demand
Compensatory or Deficit-led: Strategy based on clear
‘deficiencies’ – which may have received little previous funding
Instrumental or Interventionist: Clear about project intent
and impact – funding is aligned with strategy.
Changing focus
Funding for HIV/Aids – this is no longer seen as a disease that
kills but instead about getting access to preventative
medicines – this changes dynamics and many funders are
pulling out of HIV funding, and the Global Fund is also shifting
its focus of countries and priorities.
Equality on grounds of ethnicity is coming back into the
spotlight.This is increasingly happening in the US, South
Africa, Brazil and parts of Europe.
2016/04/10 Next Generation Consultants 9
NGO’s:
Economic uncertainty – increased volatility and shocks
Board representation (demographics) is a concern - (youth,
diversity, inclusivity)
Changing relationships and responsibilities between
government, private sector and development sector – i.e.
government abdication of service roles, non-payment on
contracts, rise of social/impact investment/bonds
Increasingly competitive environment
Effectiveness of collaborating in networks are questioned
Changes in stakeholder accountability expectations
Advocacy – a role that needs to be taken up again
Changing customer demand and expectations
Rapid technological change
Demographic shifts
Evolving regulatory frameworks
Cyber security
2016/04/10 Next Generation Consultants 10
Wildcards:
There will be less support for ‘softer’ projects, as
part of a bigger trend.We may instead see more
specific big issue ‘harder’ projects.
Funders think many topics that are difficult to
fund (social justice and cohesion) and complex
(requiring multiple stakeholders/ long term/
systemic issues to address) will suffer from
reduced funds.
Issues affecting women are being downgraded in
importance and visibility.
Changing funding models - More participatory
funding vehicles will emerge in 2016, with a
particular focus on marginalised populations and
possibly as a way of hearing children's’ voices.
2016/04/10 Next Generation Consultants 11
What’s (not)
working?
2016/04/10 Next Generation Consultants 12
Enough
evidence:
SILOED RESPONSES and PATHWORK PROJECTS
Social impact has been designed and is delivered across multiple
departments, sectors and jurisdictions, often without coordination
Short-term, ‘single-dose’ interventions, annual projects/ pilot projects
that do not take off and uncoordinated project funding have led to
patchwork responses with little significant impact
THE DESIGNOF PROGRAMMES IS MOSTLY BUDGET-DRIVEN
RATHERTHAN NEEDS-DRIVEN
Although differences between companies exist, the vast majority of SI
programmes are developed based on the available budget, rather than
what is needed to achieve a company’s social objectives.This is contrary
to virtually all other aspects of corporate operations, where the available
budget is determined based on what it takes to reach the proposed
objectives.
NON-ENGAGEMENTWITH STAKEHOLDERS
Programs designed ‘for’ communities dominate the service delivery
landscape.Consultation is often the apex of community engagement,
and users of services have little say in the ongoing design, learning and
evaluation of services that, in the end, are about affecting change in their
lives
LACK OF EFFECTIVE MEASUREMENT OF PROGRESS
Many services are not effectively evaluated, and if they are - the analysis
of their impact is not shared with other service providers or stakeholders.
Therefore it is hard to know if and how things are improving, and it is
harder still to learn from failures
2016/04/10 Next Generation Consultants 13
Let the
figures
speak:
Since 1994 – budget spend on social services has
increased by 15% from 45% to 60% (of total
national budget) in 2014/2015
Education accounts for 35% of the social services
budget DOWN from 49%
Health accounts to 21% of the total social services
budget DOWN from 23%
Social security (most of which is social grants)
accounts for 30% UP from 21%
It is predicted that in 2016/2017 18 million people
will receive social grants
In 2009 the number of people in receiving social
grants overtook the number of people employed.
By 2013 there were 90 people employed for every
100 people in receipt of social grants
2016/04/10 Next Generation Consultants 14
Source: Please sir, I want some more … IRR/CRA May 2015 Research
Let the
evidence
speak:
Education
85.5% of schools are no-fee schools attended by 73.2% of all
pupils
BUT more than 700 000 pupils drop out of the schooling
system per year
Health
Very little gains have been made
Severe malnutrition among under fives (below 60% of
expected weight for their age) have come down BUT 40% out
of every 1000 children still suffers from severe malnutrition
The proportion of households with adequate food access has
decreased by only by 2%
Maternal health – 2584 women died in child birth, during
pregnancy or during delivery or termination of pregnancy
SimilarlyTB has worsened – the infection rate has doubled
since 2012
HIV/Aids between 2002 and 2014 - the number of people living
with HIV increased from 4 to 6 million
Basic services –
The number of people receiving free water increased by 53%
The number of people receiving free electricity increased by
28%
2016/04/10 Next Generation Consultants 15
PrevailingTrends:
2013-2016
2016/04/10 Next Generation Consultants 16
Top 3Trends:
1. THE RESOURCE SQUEEZE:
One prominent trend that began with the Great Recession will
continue its drain in 2016: scarce financial resources.
2. THE UPWARD SPIRAL OF NEED:
The dramatic decline in government funding increased
demand for services, as communities and individuals continue
to struggle and look to non-profits to provide basic services.
This trend continues notwithstanding increased social security
spending by government due to job losses, increased interest
rates, increased cost of living.
The upward spiral of need for basic services is likely only to
increase in 2016, while the resources that non-profits have
available to them will continue to be squeezed.
3. ADVANCING MISSIONSTHROUGH ADVOCACY:
The significance of the first two trends heightens the need for
both funders and intermediaries to advance their missions
through advocacy.
Advocacy is a means to address systemic changes and
influence policy.
It is now recognized and acknowledged that the greatest
barriers to progress are current government policy
environment and the current economic climate. If non-profits
and funders are serious about bringing things “to scale,”
advocacy is the way to achieve it.
2016/04/10 Next Generation Consultants 17
Trends 4 – 6:
4. INCREASEDTRANSPARENCY ABOUT OUTCOMES:
Because of the intense competition for financial resources, and
donors’ desire to know where their contributed money is
going, it continues to be important for all stakeholders in the
value chain to be transparent about not only their finances, but
also their outcomes.
5. OWNING OUR COSTS:
In 2014, the overhead myth started to burst about how much it
really costs to run the operations of a non-profit.
Similarly in 2015, the real cost of funding and grantmaking
came to light because of reporting requirements.
In 2016, we anticipate there will be a growing awareness about
the need for both funders and non-profits to know and really
“own” the true costs of meeting their missions.
Underestimating and under-investing -The old saying
“Everything takes longer and costs more than you expect” is
very true when you are trying to drive social change.Yet donors
chronically underestimate what it will cost to create results
and, as a result, underinvest in the capacity required to make
those results a reality.When organisations receive less than
required to succeed, they underperform.
6. INCREASED SCRUTINY:
2016 will bring a continued focus on good governance.
Consider Principles and Practices/ Standards/Guidelines/
Frameworks that offer guidance for ethical and accountable
governance and financial practices.
2016/04/10 Next Generation Consultants 18
Trends 7 - 10
7. PICTURESTHATTELL STORIES:
If 2013 was the year of sustainability reports, 2014 the year of
integrated reports and 2015 was the year of the infographic, 2016 is
going to be the year of data visualization. Storytelling with pictures
will increasingly be the way we read and understand data, so having
the ability to communicate effectively with data will be important.
8. ONLINE EVERYTHING – GIVING/VOLUNTEERING/ ACTIVISM:
Campaigns going viral (Ice bucket challenge), crowdsourcing a
reality, activism a growing phenomenon (#generation), the growing
importance of social media, and an always connected environment.
This means that funders, non profits and communities need to be
aware – information and communication need to be optimised for
mobile devises therefore information and communication – and
(responsiveness and transparency) are critical
9.THE LEADERSHIP/SKILLS CHALLENGE:
At the core of this trend is the heavy burden placed on all resources
to be knowledgeable, skilled, experienced, in all matters social and
developmental. All resources need to be good managers of people,
gracious with demanding stakeholders, tech-wizards, advocates for
their missions, equally savvy with legal issues and social media, and
at the same time strategists able to keep their organisation ‘on
mission’.
10. WHAT IS IN A NAME – NEW FINANCING/ ORGANISATIONAL
STRUCTURES ADD CONFUSION:
A trend that will become much stronger in 2016 is experimentation
with legal structures designed to deliver social good.
New forms of entities that combine for-profit investments with
social benefit objectives. (Social Enterprises)
Social impact investment and the promise of “pay-for-
performance” are getting lots of attention, - as are concepts of
shared/blended value – commercially driven social solutions.
2016/04/10 Next Generation Consultants 19
The big
issues:
What we know:
We still have not reached pre-2007 funding levels
Notwithstanding innovation – new models of funding
and development – the number of
organisations/projects/programmes/communities
funded – declined – meaning there was no leverage of
partnerships, collaboration, technology – we are in
decline – all of us
What we don’t know:
Where were real change – impact – success –
sustainability
What we don’t know we don’t know:
Let the statistics/science/evidence speak
As much as in real life – few tax payers are carrying the
rest of society – we see the same in socio economic
development – a few funders contributing more than
75% of all funding and development
If the Mining Industry is responsible for more than 50%
of all CSI funding – what will happen when the industry
collapse?
If the economy does not grow – poverty will increase -
profitability will be affected – which will affect
grantmaking – a vicious cycle
2016/04/10 Next Generation Consultants 20
2016:
Theme of theYear:
Disruptive
Development
Two contradictory
forces drive today’s
economy:
One – information is
about abundance
Two – sustainability is
about scarcity and
resilience
New
Concepts:
New buzzwords in
2016/2017 to watch
out for:
Inclusive
economy
Circular
economy
Social capital
Social value
Conscious capital
Collective/social
impact
Old(er) news
Shared/Blended
value
Social economy
Social
entrepreneurship
Social innovation
Impact
investment
New drivers
The Sustainable
Development
Goals
Sustainability
and Integrated
Reporting
The forgotten
National
Development
Plan
2016/04/10 Next Generation Consultants 22
New
influences:
Big Data
Requiring practitioners to
collect, analyse, share,
distribute more robust data –
more effectively - and to use
qualitative analysis more
intelligently (not only
quantitative data)
Mission based investing
Using market based
techniques/tactics/ tools to
address specific societal
challenges in order to
increase/scale/replicate
programs and interventions to
achieve measurable
social/environmental and
economic ROI and impact
Dealing with the impact of
climate change and the impact
thereof on the quality of life of
communities
Crowdsourcing
The democratisation of
fundraising – everyone is a
funder/philanthropist – but they
also want to be involved
see/experience what their
contribution achieves
Human rights lens to
funding and development
Leading issues in
development include:
Women, children, people
with disability, LGBT,
demanding their human
rights to: education, health,
water, housing, basic
services, and addressing
issues such as human
trafficking, child labour,
etc.
Youth Bulge
Africa’s future: Un/under-
educated, unemployed,
marginalised, alienated who
are so aspiring, socially
conscious, and need to be
empowered
The seven million South
Africans between the ages of
16 and 24 who are neither in
school nor working and are in
danger of falling through the
cracks, with no pathway out
of the educational gap and
into the workforce.
Persistent issues
Increased HIV infections,
slow/declining economic
growth, limited foreign direct
investment, chronic
unemployment, unstable
political context, increased
violence and crime, gender
inequalities, etc.
2016/04/10 Next Generation Consultants 23
2016:
Disruptive
Development
Trends 1-4:
The obvious
1.The impact of climate change
Water, Food, Energy = Blue/Green/Renewable
economies
Retail Sector: Food Security / Supplier Development
Financial Sector: Negative impact on profits / risk
mitigation strategy
2.Waste is wealth
Circular economy, inclusive economy/development,
shared value
Aspects of sustainability also becomes risk mitigation
strategy
Mining Sector – Recycling / Beneficiation / Local
Content Strategy
3. Activist youth
The # generation – Fees must fall/Rhodes must
fall/Zuma must fall
Skills development / bursary programs / tertiary
education vs ECD
4. Global development
The impact of the SDG’s
South Africa missing more than half of the MDG’s
2016/04/10 Next Generation Consultants 25
Trends 5-6:
The
emerging
5.The era of compliance and governance has arrived:
International Standards: United Nations Declaration
of Human Rights, the United Nations Global Compact,
the OECD Guidelines for Multinational Companies, the
IFC Performance Standards for Social and
Environmental Sustainability
Industry specific Standards: The Extractives Industry
Transparency Initiative,The International Council for
Metals and Mines, Better Coal Initiative, the KZN Coal
Hub Initiative, The Fossil Fuel Foundation
South African Legislation: The Constitution,The
Mineral and Resources-, Petroleum Acts,The
Mining/Financial/ICT/Retail Charters
Corporate Governance Frameworks: King IV,The GRI,
The IIRC,Accountability 1000SES, The Companies Act,
the JSE-SRI Index,The BBEEE Act, Social and Ethics
Committees
6.The era of reporting has arrived:
Reporting on input, activities and outputs – only
quantitative outcomes
The impact of business being mitigated through social
investment
Carbon offsetting, job creation, skills development,
enterprise development, etc.
Generation and sharing of energy and water
2016/04/10 Next Generation Consultants 26
Trends 7-8:
The hidden -
compliance
7. Donors of all sizes are focusing their giving, asking metrics-
focused questions about impact and are contemplating the return
on their philanthropic investment.
There is as much difference between qualitative and quantitative
impact as there is between impact and return on investment
Negative impact, unintended impact and indirect impact is also
impact – in development not all impact is positive – BUT it has
never been accounted for
Measuring both impact and return and reporting thereon
requires much more focus. The evidence is clear – both the
grantmaking and development sectors have not stayed on top of
reporting requirements – and as such their legitimacy is
questioned – and practitioners are earmarked as ignorant.
8. Community stakeholders are a critical part of any program yet
continue to be seen as merely ‘recipients/beneficiaries’ of
interventions
Can you prove engagement with stakeholders
Can you prove/guarantee scientific outcomes
Can you provide evidence of impact/return
Is your data assured/verified?
2016/04/10 Next Generation Consultants 27
Trend 9:
Relationship
Challenge
9. If “donor-centric” was the buzz term of 2015,
2016 will be the year of making good on the donor-
centric promise. Organisations will invest in
cultivating only critical relationships. How?
To get in the door – is a challenge
To get an interview – is a miracle
Direct mailing – is old fashioned
Donor priorities are shifting
Refugees/migrants (global) – gender based funding
(women/girls empowerment (Africa)
Dealing with the impact of climate change
Dealing with the impact of unemployed youth
It now about 1) relationships 2) evidence
The rules are being made by funders – and others
simply have to follow
2016 is where forward-thinking organisations will
implement strategies that are truly donor-centric.
2016/04/10 Next Generation Consultants 28
Trend 10:
Winner takes
all – the
brand war
10. In a race to build a compelling business social
brand – that can stand against competitors –
provide differentiation – uniqueness and
consumer/customer/employee appeal – the one
who wins the race or the war will be able to provide:
The unique program
That raises the profile and brand of the funder
That speaks to the business objectives
That supports competitiveness and differentiation
Provides opportunities for new products, services
and markets
Supports market/ leadership positioning
Can be scaled – replicated – implemented
nationally
Provides detail of impact and return
Will be the winner – no matter the cost or budget!
2016/04/10 Next Generation Consultants 29
Trend 11:
The wild card
Financing
Models
The social finance and social innovation tipping point
For many organisations, 2016 will mark an important
“tipping point” for social innovation and social finance. The
social innovation ecosystem has experienced significant
growth in the last several years, generating new networks,
grant programs, policies, and innovation labs across the
continent.
The concept of Impact Investing have demonstrated strong
thought leadership on a sector-wide level, but many
organisations are looking for support and resources to apply
social innovation tools and concepts on a smaller scale to
improve their day-to-day operations and strategic planning.
Case studies and success stories are important in
demonstrating impact, and in 2016 non-profit leaders and
policymakers will continue to seek examples, models, and
templates to help embed social innovation tools in their day-
to-day work.
Social impact bonds and other social finance tools are also
experiencing an important tipping point, and 2016 will be an
important year of critical uptake to bridge the gap between
exploration and implementation:
Will social finance ”mainstream’” in SouthAfrica?
What government direction, if any, will government provide?
As social impact bonds in international jurisdictions mature
and continue to report on their initial results, national
government will have SouthAfrican context.
2016/04/10 Next Generation Consultants 30
Forecasts:2016
What we
know:
Funding Sector
Continues broad focus,
multiple focus - short-
term funding/program
cycles
Lack proper measurement
and evaluation tools,
processes and
methodologies
Continues low-level
investment in NGO
capacity building
Limited application of new
tools and innovation in
program design or funding
models
Lack of collaboration
Lack of communication
Development Sector
Development lessons, lessons
learnt and insights or low impact
development programs not
shared for risk of future funding
Interventions are not based on
community engagement/input
or scientific research or baseline
data
Monitoring and evaluation
expertise is not a given or
funded, neither is development
based on international/
academic/scientific (best of
breed) practices
The sustainability of the
development sector continues to
be challenged as funding for
core operational expenses are
limited - affecting the outcome
and impact of interventions
2016/04/10 Next Generation Consultants 32
What we still
don’t know:
How to address systemic social issues singularly
How to ensure/guarantee development models will
provide the right outcomes and impact
How much resources will be required to affect real
change
The sustainability of non-profit organisations
continues to be challenged as funding for core
operations and capacitating is limited. What
happens if the funder disappears – what happens if
the community burn down the project. What are
the risks associated per program, organisation,
community, intervention?
Why is government ‘missing in action’? Not part of
discussions, not part of program implementation,
program design or reporting on program outcomes
2016/04/10 Next Generation Consultants 33
Strategic
considerations:
2016/04/10 Next Generation Consultants 34
2016 –
Funders:
Think local first - NDP/IDP/LED/SED/SLP
integration and alignment
Think global second - the SDG’s
Don’t get confused = shared value is not CSI –
blended value is a philosophy
Social innovation is not another way to make
money from ‘the poor at the bottom of the
pyramid’
Not every NGO is a social enterprise
Stop delegating responsibility to NGO’s - they
cannot save the world in isolation or change
systemic issues singlehandedly
Advocacy funding must return to investment
portfolios in order to affect systemic change
2016/04/10 Next Generation Consultants 35
2016 –
NGO’s:
The odds are against you:
If you function on your own, if you pursue
strategies that lack the infrastructure to affect
systemic change, the cloud to influence
government, or the scale to achieve
national/sustainable impact – you are not going to
make it
There is no chance/assurance/evidence with all the
money in the world or the most
dedicated/hardworking staff – you can save the
world with unscientific, underfunded, non-
collaborative and unaccountable approaches
2016/04/10 Next Generation Consultants 36
Forecasts:
2016 into the
future
2016/2017:
Trends to
Watch:
Funders
1. Falling trust in grantmaking
2. Impact investment – evidence of impact is building
3.Watch out for diversity/equality/ inclusion/inclusive/
human rights based funding – new portfolio growth at
the expense of other portfolio’s
4. Educational funding needs to change – will funders
however change approaches? Changes from education
to skills development to combat youth unemployment?
5. Health funding – going nowhere slowly?
6. Environmental investment and development areas –
ready for take off – but very few programs/initiatives –
scientific evidence of change
7. Big Data – what do you know about it –
Gather, analyse and synthesize data - Data on gaps,
eco systems mapping - Baseline data – Comparative
data - Benchmarking data -Triangulated data
2016/04/10 Next Generation Consultants 38
2016/2017:
Trends to
Watch
Development
Sector
1. New opportunities for civic engagement – youth groups,
advocacy, green economy, climate change, entrepreneurship
2. Increased use of protests, actions, # generation – using
technology and social media to gain support, visibility, action,
fundraising
3. Collaboration, sharing economy and network approach in a
resource constraint environment to scale interventions and
geographies
4.Work harder to dispel the ‘overhead myth’ and focus on
raising funding for capacity building and integrated services
5. Find new sources of revenue – social entrepreneurship,
impact investment, crowdsourcing, viral marketing campaigns
6. Be ready to provide evidence of impact – more demand for
outcomes requires more due diligence, information and data
management, new competencies and skills – create own
theories of change, provide baseline data, conduct M & E
7. Learn to advocate for the sector as well - not just causes and
projects
8. Be ready for comparisons and benchmarking – based on
science and evidence – outcome and impact
9. Become more strategic – both for own organisations and
programs – as well as income and funding/capacity strategies
2016/04/10 Next Generation Consultants 39
Forecast 1:
The obvious
Re-strategise
Theory of change / theory of practice / theory of
grantmaking
Do you have the knowledge/insight/understanding
of complex and connected/interdependent social
issues
Do you have a theory of development
Do you have a measurement framework
Scalability and replicability
Do you have the resources/competencies required
to ensure sustainable
development/outcomes/impact and return
Have you defined sustainable development
Collaboration and partnership
Are you willing and able to do what it takes to affect
real change
2016/04/10 Next Generation Consultants 40
Forecast 2:
The
emerging –
Re-organise
Development cannot happen without:
Engagement
Collaboration
Knowledge
Stakeholder pressure/expectations will persist and
increase
Performance based trust
The development sector will have to demonstrate
credibility and capability
The investment sector will be challenged to
demonstrate creative and innovative programs that
affect real impact and return
Stakeholders will keep developers and investors
accountable and reporting will drive transparency
2016/04/10 Next Generation Consultants 41
Forecast 3:
The hidden –
Re-Create
Be ready for:
Compliance to regulation – be ready to provide
evidence
The importance of monitoring, evaluation and
impact assessments cannot be emphasised enough
The moral market place – be ready to be exposed
Ensure governance, compliance, standards,
frameworks and guidelines are encapsulated in risk
management strategies
Consider both competitive and comparative
advantages – be ready with new investment AND
development models
Reconsider your theory of change (what you
do/fund) / theory of practice (how you do it) / theory
of grantmaking/development (what you are trying to
achieve)
Community / stakeholder driven development
Engagement and activism will influence future
development agendas – at SHORT notice
2016/04/10 Next Generation Consultants 42
In
conclusion:
Re-Consider
Focus Areas Changes =
Fewer Programmes =
Fewer Partners
From education to
skills development
to job creation
Focus onYOUTH
Winners and losers:
Health, security,
safety, art, sport,
housing to more
immediate/urgent
issues
Focus on FOOD,
WATER, #issues
Investment Changes =
Less Funding = Less
Resources
Focus on integrated
development -
ECONOMIC,
ENVIRONMENTAL and
SOCIO ECONOMIC
Development Changes =
Performance based Funding
= More measurement and
Reporting
No investment without
research or baseline
studies to provide
evidence for impact
No investment without
return to provide shared
value for all
Focus on INDICATORS to
measure impact and
return
Strategic Changes
Engagement lead
development:
Communities –
expressed needs
Employees –
expressed priorities
Government –
expressed
expectations
Fewer focus areas -
Fewer long term
programs = Less Cash –
More volunteering and
non-cash giving
2016/04/10 Next Generation Consultants 43
The
dichotomy of
development
Change will affect us all
Fewer programs - Just not enough resources
Balance between (company) flagship programs and
community needs
Back to shorter term programs
Need flexibility – emergency response
Need evidence – importance of performance to build
trust
Global influence
Understanding the link between the SDG’s and local
development
Good news – development is aligned – globally and
locally
Bad news – development is influenced by specific
issues
Ugly news – change will affect all of us – we need to
ensure that we have the right resources, knowledge
to ensure and affect sustainable development
2016/04/10 Next Generation Consultants 44
2017:
There is no place left to hide – whether you are on
the investment or development side – it does not
matter
In the age of transparency – responsibility is
measured by accountability
Accountability is measured by performance
Performance measures impact and change
The circle is complete
2016/04/10 Next Generation Consultants 45
Will
tomorrow be
much better?
If you don’t change direction, you will end up where
you are headed.
The Professionalization Map.
In this view, grantmaking needs to gets its act together
and act like a real profession. It needs clear standards of
ethics and performance, transparent information and
widespread knowledge sharing. Institute these
reforms, and development will become not only much
more effective; it will police itself and keep the
regulators at bay.
The Social Justice Map.
In this view, what’s wrong with development is that it
isn’t democratic enough. It doesn’t listen to a wide
variety of stakeholders. It doesn’t represent the
changing diversity of the African landscape. It doesn’t
target its efforts toward the deep inequalities that allow
it to exist in the first place. Fix these things, and
development will be much more accountable. It might
even be transformed.
The Performance Map.
In this view, development isn’t enough like business. It
needs strategies based on value creation and focused
activities, all expressed in clear goals against which
performance can be measured. It needs to borrow tools
and techniques that will help donors see themselves as
investors, which in turn will encourage them to use their
money more effectively and efficiently in support of
social goals.
2016/04/10 Next Generation Consultants 46
New
Classification
and not just
focus areas:
Responsive
Value: Taking care of
communities where you
are – helping to sustain
communities for the
immediate and short
term, respond to crises,
linked to employee giving
and volunteerism. Broad-
based support –
demonstrating caring and
responsiveness
Strategic
Specific investments to
achieve results aligned
with and material to
business strategy by
extending expertise and
other resources to achieve
a bigger social impact and
profile
Catalytic
Support for large scale,
holistic and integrated
initiatives to meet
complex social challenges.
Catalysts for
transformative social and
business innovation and
ensuring lasting change
2016/04/10 Next Generation Consultants 47
Catalytic
Strategic
Responsive
ThankYou
Reana Rossouw - Next Generation Consultants
Next Generation Consultants are internationally
recognized and have published extensively and
spoken at local and international conferences.
Copies of these articles, research papers,
presentations, whitepapers and awards are
available on:
Website: www.nextgeneration.co.za
Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/company/next-
generation-consultants
Google+: https://plus.google.com/+reana rossouw
Pinterest:
https://www.pinterest.com/reanarossouw/
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/
nextgenerationconsultants/
Slideshare: http://www.slideshare.net/Reana1
Please Note:
The material is this
presentation is copyrighted
Permission must be
obtained for using this
material
2016/04/10 Next Generation Consultants 48

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CSI Trends and forecasts

  • 1. Community Investment and Development Trends and Forecasts 2016/2017 Reana Rossouw Next Generation Consultants
  • 2. Who we are: Next Generation Consultants helps organisations to become more responsible and sustainable. In the community/social investment and development sectors - we provide consulting and advisory, research and engagement, training and facilitation, impact assessment and due diligence services. We have developed the Impact Investment Index™ - a methodology that measures the impact and return on investment of community/social investment. We are recognised as industry/subject experts and thought leaders within the sustainable/social/ community development sectors. 2016/04/10 Next Generation Consultants 2 Please see: http://www.slideshare.net/Reana1/measuring-impact-and-return-on-investment-of-corporate-social-investment-and-community-development AND http://www.slideshare.net/Reana1/evidence-of-impact-and-return-on-investment-40906503
  • 3. Background: • Our vision • To continuously contribute to increased socio economic impact and ensure enhanced shared value • Our Context • Global research – both developed and developing countries with a specific focus on continental and regional trends • Local interpretation – considering emerging global best practice and combining it with indigenous insight and knowledge • Research methodology - literature reviews, personal interviews with key influencers and recognised leaders, focus groups with intermediaries and beneficiaries, internet surveys • Benchmarked • Our Impact Investment Index (III)™ also informs our trend report. The III consists the outcomes of our impact assessments which have considered over R3 billion worth of social/community investment. Over 600 programs, 15 focus areas, 15 dimensions of impact, 25 dimensions of return, and a library of more than 5000 indicators. 2016/04/10 Next Generation Consultants 3
  • 4. To recap: 2013/2014 Trends A brave new world - Evidence of collaboration Flipsides of the coin - Increased giving/increased expectations Lean and mean - Impact and outcome of the recession The next BIG thing - ESG, Impact Investment, SharedValue, SED, Social Entrepreneurship The war on ideas -The growth of flagship/signature programs Green/Blue is the new black -The rise of funding for the environment Alphabet Soup -The rise of governance and compliance NewAge Stuff - SET committees, Baseline Studies, Human Rights based funding, Engagement, new guidelines Hindsight is perfect sight - Spectacular failures, theory of change vs theory of practice vs theory of grantmaking Dangerous half truths - Poverty alleviation vs Poverty reduction vs Poverty eradication Fixation on Numbers - Overemphasis on quantitative impact Dichotomies - Scalability vs focus, replicability vs results, responsiveness vs responsibility Keeping up with the Jones’s - New vs old investment/development models Volunteerism is cool - Growth in employee/customer/supplier/network involvement Please give that man a fish -The end of cliché’s I know what you did last summer - Community activism Local is lekker - Local heroes/local place based development Status quo is not an option - Failure of current M & E practices A horse-A horse for my kingdom - Ethical grantmaking Two hills ahead What we know vs what we don’t know What we say vs what we do 2016/04/10 Next Generation Consultants 4 Please see: http://www.slideshare.net/Reana1/csi-professionals-briefing-2014-trends
  • 5. To recap: 2014/2015 Trends Cross Roads orTipping Point Between the rock and hard place – budget cuts, program cuts, resource cuts, new competitors, legislation and compliance The good, the bad and the ugly The Good - Sweet spot – integrating economic, environmental, social development The Bad – unsuccessful development models, lack of engagement, lack of evidence The ugly – discriminatory, unethical, failed programs It’s all about business -The business of funding vs the business of development It is not business as usual - Accountability, transparency, governance and compliance dominates Heightened focus on performance - Proof: Demonstrate impact, return, successful, measurable, meaningful Growing focus on issues - Holistic, integrated, systemic/sustainable development Creating shared value -The business of business vs the business of development Follow the (development plan) - Youth, skills, infrastructure, local economic development, national development plan 2016/04/10 Next Generation Consultants 5 Please see: http://www.slideshare.net/Reana1/2015-trends-and-forecasts-corporate-social-investment-and-community-development-40906549
  • 6. Whatis evident: More of the same won’tbe good enough Whatis required: New thinking– newmodels – new knowledge 2016/04/10 Next Generation Consultants 6 THINGSARE NOT CHANGING THINGSARE NOT CHANGING FAST ENOUGH THINGSARE GETTINGWORSE
  • 7. Changes: The value chain 2016/04/10 Next Generation Consultants 7
  • 8. Government: The strategic goals of the DSD is: Review and reform social welfare services and financing Improve and expand ECD provision Deepen social assistance and extend the scope of the contributory social security system Enhance the capabilities of communities to achieve sustainable livelihoods and household food security Strengthen coordination, integration, planning, monitoring and evaluation of services More than half of all households in SA benefit from government’s social assistance program SA’s social assistance system is one of the largest in Africa and is government’s most direct means of combating poverty. Spending accounts to 3% of GDP and is projected to rise from R118 billion in 2014 to R145 billion by 2016. The child support and old age grants are the 2 largest programs – constituting about 75% of total spending. Others are the War Veterans, Disability, Grant in Aid, Foster Child and Care Dependency grants The NDA focus on food security, ECD, ED and income generation programs The NYDA focus on national youth services, education and skills development 2016/04/10 Next Generation Consultants 8 Social Development: Pocket Guide 2014/2015
  • 9. Funders: Changing role of funders Forecasters, particularly from northern Europe and the US, report that ideas about the role of philanthropic capital are changing. 3 Distinct types of grantmakers are evident: Reactive or Demand-led: Funders judge applications on merit and are responsive to demand Compensatory or Deficit-led: Strategy based on clear ‘deficiencies’ – which may have received little previous funding Instrumental or Interventionist: Clear about project intent and impact – funding is aligned with strategy. Changing focus Funding for HIV/Aids – this is no longer seen as a disease that kills but instead about getting access to preventative medicines – this changes dynamics and many funders are pulling out of HIV funding, and the Global Fund is also shifting its focus of countries and priorities. Equality on grounds of ethnicity is coming back into the spotlight.This is increasingly happening in the US, South Africa, Brazil and parts of Europe. 2016/04/10 Next Generation Consultants 9
  • 10. NGO’s: Economic uncertainty – increased volatility and shocks Board representation (demographics) is a concern - (youth, diversity, inclusivity) Changing relationships and responsibilities between government, private sector and development sector – i.e. government abdication of service roles, non-payment on contracts, rise of social/impact investment/bonds Increasingly competitive environment Effectiveness of collaborating in networks are questioned Changes in stakeholder accountability expectations Advocacy – a role that needs to be taken up again Changing customer demand and expectations Rapid technological change Demographic shifts Evolving regulatory frameworks Cyber security 2016/04/10 Next Generation Consultants 10
  • 11. Wildcards: There will be less support for ‘softer’ projects, as part of a bigger trend.We may instead see more specific big issue ‘harder’ projects. Funders think many topics that are difficult to fund (social justice and cohesion) and complex (requiring multiple stakeholders/ long term/ systemic issues to address) will suffer from reduced funds. Issues affecting women are being downgraded in importance and visibility. Changing funding models - More participatory funding vehicles will emerge in 2016, with a particular focus on marginalised populations and possibly as a way of hearing children's’ voices. 2016/04/10 Next Generation Consultants 11
  • 12. What’s (not) working? 2016/04/10 Next Generation Consultants 12
  • 13. Enough evidence: SILOED RESPONSES and PATHWORK PROJECTS Social impact has been designed and is delivered across multiple departments, sectors and jurisdictions, often without coordination Short-term, ‘single-dose’ interventions, annual projects/ pilot projects that do not take off and uncoordinated project funding have led to patchwork responses with little significant impact THE DESIGNOF PROGRAMMES IS MOSTLY BUDGET-DRIVEN RATHERTHAN NEEDS-DRIVEN Although differences between companies exist, the vast majority of SI programmes are developed based on the available budget, rather than what is needed to achieve a company’s social objectives.This is contrary to virtually all other aspects of corporate operations, where the available budget is determined based on what it takes to reach the proposed objectives. NON-ENGAGEMENTWITH STAKEHOLDERS Programs designed ‘for’ communities dominate the service delivery landscape.Consultation is often the apex of community engagement, and users of services have little say in the ongoing design, learning and evaluation of services that, in the end, are about affecting change in their lives LACK OF EFFECTIVE MEASUREMENT OF PROGRESS Many services are not effectively evaluated, and if they are - the analysis of their impact is not shared with other service providers or stakeholders. Therefore it is hard to know if and how things are improving, and it is harder still to learn from failures 2016/04/10 Next Generation Consultants 13
  • 14. Let the figures speak: Since 1994 – budget spend on social services has increased by 15% from 45% to 60% (of total national budget) in 2014/2015 Education accounts for 35% of the social services budget DOWN from 49% Health accounts to 21% of the total social services budget DOWN from 23% Social security (most of which is social grants) accounts for 30% UP from 21% It is predicted that in 2016/2017 18 million people will receive social grants In 2009 the number of people in receiving social grants overtook the number of people employed. By 2013 there were 90 people employed for every 100 people in receipt of social grants 2016/04/10 Next Generation Consultants 14 Source: Please sir, I want some more … IRR/CRA May 2015 Research
  • 15. Let the evidence speak: Education 85.5% of schools are no-fee schools attended by 73.2% of all pupils BUT more than 700 000 pupils drop out of the schooling system per year Health Very little gains have been made Severe malnutrition among under fives (below 60% of expected weight for their age) have come down BUT 40% out of every 1000 children still suffers from severe malnutrition The proportion of households with adequate food access has decreased by only by 2% Maternal health – 2584 women died in child birth, during pregnancy or during delivery or termination of pregnancy SimilarlyTB has worsened – the infection rate has doubled since 2012 HIV/Aids between 2002 and 2014 - the number of people living with HIV increased from 4 to 6 million Basic services – The number of people receiving free water increased by 53% The number of people receiving free electricity increased by 28% 2016/04/10 Next Generation Consultants 15
  • 17. Top 3Trends: 1. THE RESOURCE SQUEEZE: One prominent trend that began with the Great Recession will continue its drain in 2016: scarce financial resources. 2. THE UPWARD SPIRAL OF NEED: The dramatic decline in government funding increased demand for services, as communities and individuals continue to struggle and look to non-profits to provide basic services. This trend continues notwithstanding increased social security spending by government due to job losses, increased interest rates, increased cost of living. The upward spiral of need for basic services is likely only to increase in 2016, while the resources that non-profits have available to them will continue to be squeezed. 3. ADVANCING MISSIONSTHROUGH ADVOCACY: The significance of the first two trends heightens the need for both funders and intermediaries to advance their missions through advocacy. Advocacy is a means to address systemic changes and influence policy. It is now recognized and acknowledged that the greatest barriers to progress are current government policy environment and the current economic climate. If non-profits and funders are serious about bringing things “to scale,” advocacy is the way to achieve it. 2016/04/10 Next Generation Consultants 17
  • 18. Trends 4 – 6: 4. INCREASEDTRANSPARENCY ABOUT OUTCOMES: Because of the intense competition for financial resources, and donors’ desire to know where their contributed money is going, it continues to be important for all stakeholders in the value chain to be transparent about not only their finances, but also their outcomes. 5. OWNING OUR COSTS: In 2014, the overhead myth started to burst about how much it really costs to run the operations of a non-profit. Similarly in 2015, the real cost of funding and grantmaking came to light because of reporting requirements. In 2016, we anticipate there will be a growing awareness about the need for both funders and non-profits to know and really “own” the true costs of meeting their missions. Underestimating and under-investing -The old saying “Everything takes longer and costs more than you expect” is very true when you are trying to drive social change.Yet donors chronically underestimate what it will cost to create results and, as a result, underinvest in the capacity required to make those results a reality.When organisations receive less than required to succeed, they underperform. 6. INCREASED SCRUTINY: 2016 will bring a continued focus on good governance. Consider Principles and Practices/ Standards/Guidelines/ Frameworks that offer guidance for ethical and accountable governance and financial practices. 2016/04/10 Next Generation Consultants 18
  • 19. Trends 7 - 10 7. PICTURESTHATTELL STORIES: If 2013 was the year of sustainability reports, 2014 the year of integrated reports and 2015 was the year of the infographic, 2016 is going to be the year of data visualization. Storytelling with pictures will increasingly be the way we read and understand data, so having the ability to communicate effectively with data will be important. 8. ONLINE EVERYTHING – GIVING/VOLUNTEERING/ ACTIVISM: Campaigns going viral (Ice bucket challenge), crowdsourcing a reality, activism a growing phenomenon (#generation), the growing importance of social media, and an always connected environment. This means that funders, non profits and communities need to be aware – information and communication need to be optimised for mobile devises therefore information and communication – and (responsiveness and transparency) are critical 9.THE LEADERSHIP/SKILLS CHALLENGE: At the core of this trend is the heavy burden placed on all resources to be knowledgeable, skilled, experienced, in all matters social and developmental. All resources need to be good managers of people, gracious with demanding stakeholders, tech-wizards, advocates for their missions, equally savvy with legal issues and social media, and at the same time strategists able to keep their organisation ‘on mission’. 10. WHAT IS IN A NAME – NEW FINANCING/ ORGANISATIONAL STRUCTURES ADD CONFUSION: A trend that will become much stronger in 2016 is experimentation with legal structures designed to deliver social good. New forms of entities that combine for-profit investments with social benefit objectives. (Social Enterprises) Social impact investment and the promise of “pay-for- performance” are getting lots of attention, - as are concepts of shared/blended value – commercially driven social solutions. 2016/04/10 Next Generation Consultants 19
  • 20. The big issues: What we know: We still have not reached pre-2007 funding levels Notwithstanding innovation – new models of funding and development – the number of organisations/projects/programmes/communities funded – declined – meaning there was no leverage of partnerships, collaboration, technology – we are in decline – all of us What we don’t know: Where were real change – impact – success – sustainability What we don’t know we don’t know: Let the statistics/science/evidence speak As much as in real life – few tax payers are carrying the rest of society – we see the same in socio economic development – a few funders contributing more than 75% of all funding and development If the Mining Industry is responsible for more than 50% of all CSI funding – what will happen when the industry collapse? If the economy does not grow – poverty will increase - profitability will be affected – which will affect grantmaking – a vicious cycle 2016/04/10 Next Generation Consultants 20
  • 21. 2016: Theme of theYear: Disruptive Development Two contradictory forces drive today’s economy: One – information is about abundance Two – sustainability is about scarcity and resilience
  • 22. New Concepts: New buzzwords in 2016/2017 to watch out for: Inclusive economy Circular economy Social capital Social value Conscious capital Collective/social impact Old(er) news Shared/Blended value Social economy Social entrepreneurship Social innovation Impact investment New drivers The Sustainable Development Goals Sustainability and Integrated Reporting The forgotten National Development Plan 2016/04/10 Next Generation Consultants 22
  • 23. New influences: Big Data Requiring practitioners to collect, analyse, share, distribute more robust data – more effectively - and to use qualitative analysis more intelligently (not only quantitative data) Mission based investing Using market based techniques/tactics/ tools to address specific societal challenges in order to increase/scale/replicate programs and interventions to achieve measurable social/environmental and economic ROI and impact Dealing with the impact of climate change and the impact thereof on the quality of life of communities Crowdsourcing The democratisation of fundraising – everyone is a funder/philanthropist – but they also want to be involved see/experience what their contribution achieves Human rights lens to funding and development Leading issues in development include: Women, children, people with disability, LGBT, demanding their human rights to: education, health, water, housing, basic services, and addressing issues such as human trafficking, child labour, etc. Youth Bulge Africa’s future: Un/under- educated, unemployed, marginalised, alienated who are so aspiring, socially conscious, and need to be empowered The seven million South Africans between the ages of 16 and 24 who are neither in school nor working and are in danger of falling through the cracks, with no pathway out of the educational gap and into the workforce. Persistent issues Increased HIV infections, slow/declining economic growth, limited foreign direct investment, chronic unemployment, unstable political context, increased violence and crime, gender inequalities, etc. 2016/04/10 Next Generation Consultants 23
  • 25. Trends 1-4: The obvious 1.The impact of climate change Water, Food, Energy = Blue/Green/Renewable economies Retail Sector: Food Security / Supplier Development Financial Sector: Negative impact on profits / risk mitigation strategy 2.Waste is wealth Circular economy, inclusive economy/development, shared value Aspects of sustainability also becomes risk mitigation strategy Mining Sector – Recycling / Beneficiation / Local Content Strategy 3. Activist youth The # generation – Fees must fall/Rhodes must fall/Zuma must fall Skills development / bursary programs / tertiary education vs ECD 4. Global development The impact of the SDG’s South Africa missing more than half of the MDG’s 2016/04/10 Next Generation Consultants 25
  • 26. Trends 5-6: The emerging 5.The era of compliance and governance has arrived: International Standards: United Nations Declaration of Human Rights, the United Nations Global Compact, the OECD Guidelines for Multinational Companies, the IFC Performance Standards for Social and Environmental Sustainability Industry specific Standards: The Extractives Industry Transparency Initiative,The International Council for Metals and Mines, Better Coal Initiative, the KZN Coal Hub Initiative, The Fossil Fuel Foundation South African Legislation: The Constitution,The Mineral and Resources-, Petroleum Acts,The Mining/Financial/ICT/Retail Charters Corporate Governance Frameworks: King IV,The GRI, The IIRC,Accountability 1000SES, The Companies Act, the JSE-SRI Index,The BBEEE Act, Social and Ethics Committees 6.The era of reporting has arrived: Reporting on input, activities and outputs – only quantitative outcomes The impact of business being mitigated through social investment Carbon offsetting, job creation, skills development, enterprise development, etc. Generation and sharing of energy and water 2016/04/10 Next Generation Consultants 26
  • 27. Trends 7-8: The hidden - compliance 7. Donors of all sizes are focusing their giving, asking metrics- focused questions about impact and are contemplating the return on their philanthropic investment. There is as much difference between qualitative and quantitative impact as there is between impact and return on investment Negative impact, unintended impact and indirect impact is also impact – in development not all impact is positive – BUT it has never been accounted for Measuring both impact and return and reporting thereon requires much more focus. The evidence is clear – both the grantmaking and development sectors have not stayed on top of reporting requirements – and as such their legitimacy is questioned – and practitioners are earmarked as ignorant. 8. Community stakeholders are a critical part of any program yet continue to be seen as merely ‘recipients/beneficiaries’ of interventions Can you prove engagement with stakeholders Can you prove/guarantee scientific outcomes Can you provide evidence of impact/return Is your data assured/verified? 2016/04/10 Next Generation Consultants 27
  • 28. Trend 9: Relationship Challenge 9. If “donor-centric” was the buzz term of 2015, 2016 will be the year of making good on the donor- centric promise. Organisations will invest in cultivating only critical relationships. How? To get in the door – is a challenge To get an interview – is a miracle Direct mailing – is old fashioned Donor priorities are shifting Refugees/migrants (global) – gender based funding (women/girls empowerment (Africa) Dealing with the impact of climate change Dealing with the impact of unemployed youth It now about 1) relationships 2) evidence The rules are being made by funders – and others simply have to follow 2016 is where forward-thinking organisations will implement strategies that are truly donor-centric. 2016/04/10 Next Generation Consultants 28
  • 29. Trend 10: Winner takes all – the brand war 10. In a race to build a compelling business social brand – that can stand against competitors – provide differentiation – uniqueness and consumer/customer/employee appeal – the one who wins the race or the war will be able to provide: The unique program That raises the profile and brand of the funder That speaks to the business objectives That supports competitiveness and differentiation Provides opportunities for new products, services and markets Supports market/ leadership positioning Can be scaled – replicated – implemented nationally Provides detail of impact and return Will be the winner – no matter the cost or budget! 2016/04/10 Next Generation Consultants 29
  • 30. Trend 11: The wild card Financing Models The social finance and social innovation tipping point For many organisations, 2016 will mark an important “tipping point” for social innovation and social finance. The social innovation ecosystem has experienced significant growth in the last several years, generating new networks, grant programs, policies, and innovation labs across the continent. The concept of Impact Investing have demonstrated strong thought leadership on a sector-wide level, but many organisations are looking for support and resources to apply social innovation tools and concepts on a smaller scale to improve their day-to-day operations and strategic planning. Case studies and success stories are important in demonstrating impact, and in 2016 non-profit leaders and policymakers will continue to seek examples, models, and templates to help embed social innovation tools in their day- to-day work. Social impact bonds and other social finance tools are also experiencing an important tipping point, and 2016 will be an important year of critical uptake to bridge the gap between exploration and implementation: Will social finance ”mainstream’” in SouthAfrica? What government direction, if any, will government provide? As social impact bonds in international jurisdictions mature and continue to report on their initial results, national government will have SouthAfrican context. 2016/04/10 Next Generation Consultants 30
  • 32. What we know: Funding Sector Continues broad focus, multiple focus - short- term funding/program cycles Lack proper measurement and evaluation tools, processes and methodologies Continues low-level investment in NGO capacity building Limited application of new tools and innovation in program design or funding models Lack of collaboration Lack of communication Development Sector Development lessons, lessons learnt and insights or low impact development programs not shared for risk of future funding Interventions are not based on community engagement/input or scientific research or baseline data Monitoring and evaluation expertise is not a given or funded, neither is development based on international/ academic/scientific (best of breed) practices The sustainability of the development sector continues to be challenged as funding for core operational expenses are limited - affecting the outcome and impact of interventions 2016/04/10 Next Generation Consultants 32
  • 33. What we still don’t know: How to address systemic social issues singularly How to ensure/guarantee development models will provide the right outcomes and impact How much resources will be required to affect real change The sustainability of non-profit organisations continues to be challenged as funding for core operations and capacitating is limited. What happens if the funder disappears – what happens if the community burn down the project. What are the risks associated per program, organisation, community, intervention? Why is government ‘missing in action’? Not part of discussions, not part of program implementation, program design or reporting on program outcomes 2016/04/10 Next Generation Consultants 33
  • 35. 2016 – Funders: Think local first - NDP/IDP/LED/SED/SLP integration and alignment Think global second - the SDG’s Don’t get confused = shared value is not CSI – blended value is a philosophy Social innovation is not another way to make money from ‘the poor at the bottom of the pyramid’ Not every NGO is a social enterprise Stop delegating responsibility to NGO’s - they cannot save the world in isolation or change systemic issues singlehandedly Advocacy funding must return to investment portfolios in order to affect systemic change 2016/04/10 Next Generation Consultants 35
  • 36. 2016 – NGO’s: The odds are against you: If you function on your own, if you pursue strategies that lack the infrastructure to affect systemic change, the cloud to influence government, or the scale to achieve national/sustainable impact – you are not going to make it There is no chance/assurance/evidence with all the money in the world or the most dedicated/hardworking staff – you can save the world with unscientific, underfunded, non- collaborative and unaccountable approaches 2016/04/10 Next Generation Consultants 36
  • 38. 2016/2017: Trends to Watch: Funders 1. Falling trust in grantmaking 2. Impact investment – evidence of impact is building 3.Watch out for diversity/equality/ inclusion/inclusive/ human rights based funding – new portfolio growth at the expense of other portfolio’s 4. Educational funding needs to change – will funders however change approaches? Changes from education to skills development to combat youth unemployment? 5. Health funding – going nowhere slowly? 6. Environmental investment and development areas – ready for take off – but very few programs/initiatives – scientific evidence of change 7. Big Data – what do you know about it – Gather, analyse and synthesize data - Data on gaps, eco systems mapping - Baseline data – Comparative data - Benchmarking data -Triangulated data 2016/04/10 Next Generation Consultants 38
  • 39. 2016/2017: Trends to Watch Development Sector 1. New opportunities for civic engagement – youth groups, advocacy, green economy, climate change, entrepreneurship 2. Increased use of protests, actions, # generation – using technology and social media to gain support, visibility, action, fundraising 3. Collaboration, sharing economy and network approach in a resource constraint environment to scale interventions and geographies 4.Work harder to dispel the ‘overhead myth’ and focus on raising funding for capacity building and integrated services 5. Find new sources of revenue – social entrepreneurship, impact investment, crowdsourcing, viral marketing campaigns 6. Be ready to provide evidence of impact – more demand for outcomes requires more due diligence, information and data management, new competencies and skills – create own theories of change, provide baseline data, conduct M & E 7. Learn to advocate for the sector as well - not just causes and projects 8. Be ready for comparisons and benchmarking – based on science and evidence – outcome and impact 9. Become more strategic – both for own organisations and programs – as well as income and funding/capacity strategies 2016/04/10 Next Generation Consultants 39
  • 40. Forecast 1: The obvious Re-strategise Theory of change / theory of practice / theory of grantmaking Do you have the knowledge/insight/understanding of complex and connected/interdependent social issues Do you have a theory of development Do you have a measurement framework Scalability and replicability Do you have the resources/competencies required to ensure sustainable development/outcomes/impact and return Have you defined sustainable development Collaboration and partnership Are you willing and able to do what it takes to affect real change 2016/04/10 Next Generation Consultants 40
  • 41. Forecast 2: The emerging – Re-organise Development cannot happen without: Engagement Collaboration Knowledge Stakeholder pressure/expectations will persist and increase Performance based trust The development sector will have to demonstrate credibility and capability The investment sector will be challenged to demonstrate creative and innovative programs that affect real impact and return Stakeholders will keep developers and investors accountable and reporting will drive transparency 2016/04/10 Next Generation Consultants 41
  • 42. Forecast 3: The hidden – Re-Create Be ready for: Compliance to regulation – be ready to provide evidence The importance of monitoring, evaluation and impact assessments cannot be emphasised enough The moral market place – be ready to be exposed Ensure governance, compliance, standards, frameworks and guidelines are encapsulated in risk management strategies Consider both competitive and comparative advantages – be ready with new investment AND development models Reconsider your theory of change (what you do/fund) / theory of practice (how you do it) / theory of grantmaking/development (what you are trying to achieve) Community / stakeholder driven development Engagement and activism will influence future development agendas – at SHORT notice 2016/04/10 Next Generation Consultants 42
  • 43. In conclusion: Re-Consider Focus Areas Changes = Fewer Programmes = Fewer Partners From education to skills development to job creation Focus onYOUTH Winners and losers: Health, security, safety, art, sport, housing to more immediate/urgent issues Focus on FOOD, WATER, #issues Investment Changes = Less Funding = Less Resources Focus on integrated development - ECONOMIC, ENVIRONMENTAL and SOCIO ECONOMIC Development Changes = Performance based Funding = More measurement and Reporting No investment without research or baseline studies to provide evidence for impact No investment without return to provide shared value for all Focus on INDICATORS to measure impact and return Strategic Changes Engagement lead development: Communities – expressed needs Employees – expressed priorities Government – expressed expectations Fewer focus areas - Fewer long term programs = Less Cash – More volunteering and non-cash giving 2016/04/10 Next Generation Consultants 43
  • 44. The dichotomy of development Change will affect us all Fewer programs - Just not enough resources Balance between (company) flagship programs and community needs Back to shorter term programs Need flexibility – emergency response Need evidence – importance of performance to build trust Global influence Understanding the link between the SDG’s and local development Good news – development is aligned – globally and locally Bad news – development is influenced by specific issues Ugly news – change will affect all of us – we need to ensure that we have the right resources, knowledge to ensure and affect sustainable development 2016/04/10 Next Generation Consultants 44
  • 45. 2017: There is no place left to hide – whether you are on the investment or development side – it does not matter In the age of transparency – responsibility is measured by accountability Accountability is measured by performance Performance measures impact and change The circle is complete 2016/04/10 Next Generation Consultants 45
  • 46. Will tomorrow be much better? If you don’t change direction, you will end up where you are headed. The Professionalization Map. In this view, grantmaking needs to gets its act together and act like a real profession. It needs clear standards of ethics and performance, transparent information and widespread knowledge sharing. Institute these reforms, and development will become not only much more effective; it will police itself and keep the regulators at bay. The Social Justice Map. In this view, what’s wrong with development is that it isn’t democratic enough. It doesn’t listen to a wide variety of stakeholders. It doesn’t represent the changing diversity of the African landscape. It doesn’t target its efforts toward the deep inequalities that allow it to exist in the first place. Fix these things, and development will be much more accountable. It might even be transformed. The Performance Map. In this view, development isn’t enough like business. It needs strategies based on value creation and focused activities, all expressed in clear goals against which performance can be measured. It needs to borrow tools and techniques that will help donors see themselves as investors, which in turn will encourage them to use their money more effectively and efficiently in support of social goals. 2016/04/10 Next Generation Consultants 46
  • 47. New Classification and not just focus areas: Responsive Value: Taking care of communities where you are – helping to sustain communities for the immediate and short term, respond to crises, linked to employee giving and volunteerism. Broad- based support – demonstrating caring and responsiveness Strategic Specific investments to achieve results aligned with and material to business strategy by extending expertise and other resources to achieve a bigger social impact and profile Catalytic Support for large scale, holistic and integrated initiatives to meet complex social challenges. Catalysts for transformative social and business innovation and ensuring lasting change 2016/04/10 Next Generation Consultants 47 Catalytic Strategic Responsive
  • 48. ThankYou Reana Rossouw - Next Generation Consultants Next Generation Consultants are internationally recognized and have published extensively and spoken at local and international conferences. Copies of these articles, research papers, presentations, whitepapers and awards are available on: Website: www.nextgeneration.co.za Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/company/next- generation-consultants Google+: https://plus.google.com/+reana rossouw Pinterest: https://www.pinterest.com/reanarossouw/ Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/ nextgenerationconsultants/ Slideshare: http://www.slideshare.net/Reana1 Please Note: The material is this presentation is copyrighted Permission must be obtained for using this material 2016/04/10 Next Generation Consultants 48