South asia weekly trends week ending 03 june 2012

SOUTH ASIA WEEKLY TRENDS

WEEK ENDING 03 JUNE 2012

www.security-risks.com

Afghanistan
Trends During the Week Possible Trends Ahead
• Increase in violence as • Continued violence due to
spring campaigning summer campaigning
enhances activity by both seasons.
sides. • Russia – China may expand
• Hizb Islami Afghanistan engagement
suspends talks announcements likely at
SCO.


Bangladesh
• Political differences • Hopes of political
continue even though BNP rapprochement remote as
says willing for dialogue. contestations continue
• Bangladesh wants India to though some relief by High
deliver on various Court to opposition law
agreements made at the makers likely.
PM level.


Bhutan
• Rupee crunch continues • Some relief on Rupee front
as India may intervene.


Maldives
• Hopes of political • Sustained Trend - Political
reconciliation dwindle as All differences to remain
Party Talks fail. contested.
• Three way political
split, MDP, PPM and others
likely.


Myanmar
• India Myanmar relations • Likely differences over Suu
receive a fillip during visit of Kyi visit to Thailand as same
Indian Prime Minister to status accorded as
Myanmar. Myanmar President.
• Suu Kyi visits Thailand on
first external trip.


Nepal
• Political Crisis continues. • Efforts to build political
• Opposition demands consensus continue.
resignation of Prime • Political crisis and
Minister Bhattarai. deterioration in law and
• President says will only be order situation likely with
guided by political opposition bandh on 8 June.
consensus for future course
of action.
• Differences within Maoists
Dahal-Bhattarai and Baidya-
Thapa factions widen.


Pakistan
• Defence Budget enhanced • US Pakistan negotiations to
for 2012-13 by 10 percent open NATO supply route.
plus. • Possible launch of
• Tests of Hatf series of operations in North
missiles ongoing. Waziristan by Pak Army.


Sri Lanka
• Sri Lanka Foreign and • Continued contestations on
Defence Minister outline mechanisms for resolution
regional security role in of ethnic differences.
Shangri la dialogue


India Foreign Policy
• India Iran relations pose a • Indo Pakistan talks on
challenge with increased US Siachen 10-11
pressure and visit of the June, however no
Iranian Foreign Minister to breakthrough expected.
New Delhi to invite Indian
Prime Minister for NAM
Summit in August.


India Defence
• Financial powers of service • Indo US Defence Minister
chiefs doubled by Minister level talks on 6 June.
of Defence.
• Shangri la dialogue, Defence
Minister expresses concern
on freedom of the
seas, heavy Chinese
spending on arms.
• General Bikram Singh takes
over as Army Chief.


India Politics and Terrorism
• Anti Corruption civil society • Red Alert on terror threats
group - Team Anna targets in metros likely to continue
Prime Minister, other
ministers for corruption. But
seems to be losing balance
and dissonance within
surfaces.


Jammu and Kashmir
• Dip in levels of militancy • Continuing trends - Terror
claims DGP of State. encounters likely but will be
away from the tourist spots.


North East
• Clashes in Nagaland • Continued trends - North
between terrorist groups. East separatist and Naxal
menace combination may
raise threat profile in
Assam.


Left Wing Extremism
• National Investigation • Naxal bandh 5 to 12
Agency (NIA) takes lead in June, increased level of
investigation on funds violence anticipated.
flow, nexus between
militant groups.


Note
• Trends are qualitative probabilistic
assessments based on news reports and may
undergo variation thus application has to be
based on assessments by individuals and
groups based on their operating environment.
• For detailed trend analysis subscription
required query email rkbhonsle@gmail.com


South asia weekly trends week ending 03 june 2012

Recomendados

Recomendados

Mais conteúdo relacionado

Destaque

Destaque (13)

Mais de Security Risks Asia

Mais de Security Risks Asia (13)

Último

Último (20)

South asia weekly trends week ending 03 june 2012