#PAWFINDAY1

1. Improving Model Adoption,
One Failure At A Time!
If You Build It,
Will They Come?
James Gottshall
October 2017

2. buckconsultants
?

3. CHASE
FAILUREyou might stumble upon some
success along the way
I F Y O U

4. ALIGN YOUR PRIORITIES
OUTCOMES > OUTPUTS
CO-AUTHOR THE SOLUTIONS

5. ALIGN YOUR PRIORITIES
OUTCOMES > OUTPUTS
CO-AUTHOR THE SOLUTIONS

7. BUSINESS: Can you build a model that predicts
premium audits for individual policies?
US: If it’s your priority, it’s our priority! We’ll get
right on it.
US: Here’s your model!
BUSINESS: This is amazing! It will help us solve our
problem and we know exactly how to use it.

8. We noticed how the volatility of premium
audit dollars was impacting our financial
results
We have data!
We have lots of data!
`
We can build
predictive models!
We can show everyone
how smart we are!
“Hey, business, check out
these models that will
improve your results!”
“Thanks, but we
don’t have the time
for that right now…”

9. ALIGN YOUR PRIORITIES
lessons learned from a premium audit failure
THE FAILURE
 We assumed that our priority was the business’
priority…and you know what people say about ASS·U·ME
THE LESSONS LEARNED
 Start by obtaining business sponsorship
 Don’t assume that people will buy into your great idea
right away
 You’ve had months to process your idea…you can’t expect
them to reach your level in 30 minutes

10. ALIGN YOUR PRIORITIES
OUTCOMES > OUTPUTS
CO-AUTHOR THE SOLUTIONS

12. THE BUSINESS OBJECTIVE
 Appoint 300 new independent agents over the next three
years
THE OPPORTUNITY
 Identify the characteristics of our successful and
unsuccessful agents
 Leverage the agency profiles to identify and appoint agents
that have a higher likelihood of being successful

13. 𝑦 = 𝛽0 + 𝛽1 𝑋1 + 𝛽2 𝑋2 + ⋯ + 𝛽 𝑛 𝑋 𝑛 + 𝜀
Policy
Data
Marketing
Data Claims
Data
Agency
Data
U/W
Data
We spent A LOT of time preparing data
and creating algorithmic solutions…
…but we didn’t spend enough time understanding how
to make the insights actionable

14. OUTCOMES > OUTPUTS
lessons learned from an agency segmentation failure
THE FAILURE
 We focused our efforts on producing outputs, rather than
influencing outcomes
THE LESSONS LEARNED
 Start with the end – define success in business’ terms
before you start a project
 Address the WIIFM (what’s in it for me)
 You are a problem solver, which goes well beyond being a
technical SME

15. ALIGN YOUR PRIORITIES
OUTCOMES > OUTPUTS
CO-AUTHOR THE SOLUTIONS

16. What do you mean you don’t
understand how to interpret it?
I’m not sure what you mean by
decile.
Oh, well that’s easy. We ranked
the policies by predicted loss
ratio and divided them into 10
equally sized buckets…
Wait, wait, wait. What do you
mean by predicted loss ratio?
Okay, let me go back to the
beginning…
I have to run to another meeting.

17. HAVE YOU EVER…
felt like you were being
asked questions that you
thought were answered
MONTHS ago?!
felt like a business “partner”
was resistive to the
project?!
worked on a project that
kept encountering delays?!
wished you never even
started the project in the
first place?!
FELT LIKE THIS GUY?!

18. mirror,
mirror,
on the wall…

19. view your solutions
as a threat to their
jobs
resist adopting your
solutions
embrace change
at different rates
sabotage your
projects
RECOGNIZE THAT PEOPLE WILL…

20.  It’s human nature!
 Change, by definition, is different
 We are creatures of habit and comfort
 We take pride in our accomplishments
We need to give ourselves permission to
step out of our comfort zone!
We need to CHASE FAILURE!
WHY DO WE RESIST CHANGE?

21. CO-AUTHOR THE SOLUTIONS
THE FAILURES
 Not recognizing WHY people are resistive to change
THE LESSONS LEARNED
 Acknowledge that the project is a journey that you will
guide them through
 Create project teams that include early adopters,
naysayers, and everyone in between
 Select team members that are influential and respected
 Meet early and often
 Communicate, communicate, communicate!!!
lessons learned from countless failures

22. FROM FAILURES TO LESSONS
ALIGN YOUR
PRIORITIES
 Start by obtaining business
sponsorship
 Don’t assume that people will
buy into your great idea right
away
 You’ve had months to process
your idea…you can’t expect
them to reach your level in 30
minutes
OUTCOMES >
OUTPUTS
 Start with the end – define
success in business’ terms
before you start a project
 Address the WIIFM (what’s in
it for me)
 You are a problem solver,
which goes well beyond being
a technical SME
CO-AUTHOR THE
SOLUTIONS
 Acknowledge that the project
is a journey that you will
guide them through
 Create project teams that
include early adopters,
naysayers, and everyone in
between
 Select team members that
are influential and respected
 Meet early and often
 Communicate, communicate,
communicate!!!

23. THEY WILL COME!!!
If you build it,

24. Thank
You!