The September REW.ca Real Estate Consumer Confidence Survey reveals a recent flip-flop – and slide – in consumer sentiment toward selling a home in the Lower Mainland. According to the survey, a majority (58%) of residents think it’s not a good time to sell over the next three months, while only 34% disagree, believing it is a good time to sell. This marks a big switch in consumer opinions from just six months ago, when the REW.ca March Real Estate survey found that 56% of residents had a positive outlook on selling a home, with only 33% thinking otherwise.
This reversal in consumers’ sentiments toward selling supports the view that the Lower Mainland is currently experiencing a buyer’s market. Of the 58% of residents who don’t think the time is right to sell a home, 37% cited a belief that prices are on the way down (market correction) as their main reason. One-quarter of the people in this group blamed slowing sales, while 16% said there were too many properties for sale. Of the 34% who feel it is a good time to sell a home, taking advantage of current high prices and selling before a market correction were considered paramount.
As for whether it’s a good time to buy a home this fall, little has changed since the spring. Consumers are still equally divided, with 50% of respondents agreeing it is a good time to buy a home (compared to 46% in March). The largest deterrents to buying a home this fall include high prices (34%) coupled with a fear of home values dropping after purchasing (29%). On the other hand, would-be buyers believe the market offers a lot of inventory with lower prices. Low interest rates also continue to be a key factor.
The survey also uncovers what keeps people residing in the Lower Mainland, even though it is an expensive place to live. Despite the region’s highly touted liveability ranking, 43% of residents cited family as the number-one reason, ahead of job (30%), climate (18%), and scenery (16%).
“Our surveys are designed to get in touch with consumers and really find out what people are thinking,” said Ian Martin, General Manager, REW.ca. “Our fall findings indicate that consumer confidence in the Lower Mainland market is waning – particularly when it comes to selling homes – but we should all keep in mind the fact that real estate markets are cyclical. We are also intrigued by the revelation that, despite the Lower Mainland’s enviable lifestyle offerings and stunning scenery, family is the number one reason why people stay in this market. Home truly is where the heart is.”
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2. Introduction
550 telephone interviews with Metro Vancouver & Fraser Valley adults, 18
years and over;
Margin of error: ±4.2% at 95% confidence level in the most conservative
case; 7.2% point spread required between measures;
Industry-standard, multi-stage random selection techniques employed;
Municipal quotas ensure the population is represented according to its
actual distribution;
At tabulation stage, weighting adjustments bring basic characteristics of
age, gender and region into their correct known proportions based on
Statistics Canada population figures
Interviewing conducted September 4th to 19th, 2012
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3. Good Time to Sell a House/Condo in Next 3 Months
Mar '12 56% 33% 10%
Sep '12 34% 58% 9%
Yes No Don't know
Base: Total Mar’12 (n=278)
Total Sep’12 (n=550)
Q.1a) Do you think that it is a good time to sell a house or a
condo in the next 3 months?
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4. Reasons Think Good Time to Sell in Next 3 Months
Good time to sell
Total Yes No
(498) (183) (314)
% % %
Prices will go down/market correction/housing bubble 32 24 37
Housing market is soft/sales have slowed down 17 4 25
Prices are high 16 26 10
It’s a buyer’s market/too many properties for sale 12 6 16
Concerned about the economy 6 4 7
Housing prices have stabilized 5 7 4
It’s a seller’s market 5 13 -
Prices will continue to rise 4 4 5
Interest rates are low 4 8 1
Bad time of year to sell 3 - 5
Prices are low/reasonable 3 4 3
New mortgage lending rules 2 3 2
Good time of year to sell 2 4 1
Economy is improving 2 4 1
HST/taxes concerns 1 - 2
Population growth/immigration 1 2 1
Foreign investors 1 - 1
Miscellaneous 4 4 3
4
Nothing/no comment/none 9 10 7
Q.1b) Why do you say that?
5. Good Time to Buy a House/Condo in Next 3 Months
Mar '12 46% 42% 13%
Sep '12 50% 38% 12%
Yes No Don't know
Base: Total Mar’12 (n=278)
Total Sep’12 (n=550)
Q.2a) Do you think that it is a good time to buy a house or a
condo in the next 3 months?
5
6. Reasons Think Good Time to Buy in Next 3 Months
Good time to buy
Total Yes No
(481) (289) (192)
% % %
Prices will go down/market correction/housing bubble 28 27 29
It’s a buyer’s market/too many properties for sale 17 28 3
Prices are high 16 3 34
Interest rates are low 13 22 2
Housing market is soft/sales have slowed down 8 10 5
Concerned about the economy 8 2 16
Prices are low/reasonable 4 8 -
Prices will continue to rise 4 7 1
Housing prices have stabilized 4 4 2
New mortgage lending rules 2 1 3
Bad time of year to sell 2 2 2
HST/taxes concerns 1 - 3
Economy is improving 1 2 <1
It’s a seller’s market 1 1 1
Miscellaneous 4 5 4
Nothing/no comment/none 11 10 12
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Q.1b) Why do you say that?
7. Reasons Continue to Reside in the Lower Mainland
Total
(550)
%
Family 43
Job 30
Climate 18
Scenery 16
Lived here a long time/all my life 14
Location (i.e. best place to live, transit, close to parks, shopping) 11
Quality of life/lifestyle (i.e. multicultural, restaurants, activities) 9
Outdoor lifestyle 8
Friends 8
Education/schools 7
Own my home/mortgage free 5
Love it here/wouldn’t want to go anywhere else 4
Can’t afford to live anywhere else/can’t afford to move 3
Miscellaneous 4
Don’t know 2
Q.3) As you know, the Lower Mainland is an expensive place to live, what keeps you here?
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8. Distribution of Interviews
Mar ‘12 Sep ‘12
(278) (550)
% %
Home Tenure
Rent 22 25
Own 76 73
Refused 1 1
Gender
Male 49 48
Female 51 52
Age
18 to 34 29 29
35 to 54 40 38
55 to 64 14 16
65 + 17 17
Refused <1 -
Region
Vancouver 27 25
North Shore 8 7
Burnaby/New Westminster 12 12
Tri-cities/Maple Ridge/Pitt Meadows (inc. Coquitlam/
11 12
Port Moody/Port Coquitlam/Anmore/Belcarra)
Richmond/Tsawwassen/Ladner/South Delta 10 10
Surrey/White Rock/North Delta/Langley/East to
24 26
Aldergrove 8
Fraser Valley 10 9
9. Confidence Limits
A reported finding of 50% would fall between 45.5% and 54.5%
most of the time. Accuracy increases for findings above and below
50%. The table below illustrates tolerance limits for various
incidence levels at several subgroup sizes. This table applies to
observed differences within one study.
TOLERANCE LIMITS
(± range in percentage points)
n=500 n=400 n=300 n=250 n=200 n=100 n=50
50% 4.4 4.9 5.7 6.2 6.9 9.8 13.9
40 or 60% 4.3 4.8 5.5 6.1 6.8 9.6 13.6
30 or 70% 4.0 4.5 5.2 5.7 6.4 9.0 12.7
20 or 80% 3.5 3.9 4.5 5.0 5.5 7.8 11.1
10 or 90% 2.6 2.9 3.4 3.7 4.2 5.9 8.3
5 or 95% 1.9 2.1 2.5 2.7 3.0 4.3 6.0
Exercise caution when interpreting data based on samples of less
than 50. Such results must be treated as directional only.
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10. Confidence Limits
A reported finding of 50% would fall between 45.5% and 54.5%
most of the time. Accuracy increases for findings above and below
50%. The table below illustrates tolerance limits for various
incidence levels at several subgroup sizes. This table applies to
observed differences within one study.
TOLERANCE LIMITS
(± range in percentage points)
n=500 n=400 n=300 n=250 n=200 n=100 n=50
50% 4.4 4.9 5.7 6.2 6.9 9.8 13.9
40 or 60% 4.3 4.8 5.5 6.1 6.8 9.6 13.6
30 or 70% 4.0 4.5 5.2 5.7 6.4 9.0 12.7
20 or 80% 3.5 3.9 4.5 5.0 5.5 7.8 11.1
10 or 90% 2.6 2.9 3.4 3.7 4.2 5.9 8.3
5 or 95% 1.9 2.1 2.5 2.7 3.0 4.3 6.0
Exercise caution when interpreting data based on samples of less
than 50. Such results must be treated as directional only.
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