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September 2012


Real Estate Weekly
September 2012 Omnibus Survey Results




                                                 1
Introduction


    550 telephone interviews with Metro Vancouver & Fraser Valley adults, 18
    years and over;


    Margin of error: ±4.2% at 95% confidence level in the most conservative
    case; 7.2% point spread required between measures;


    Industry-standard, multi-stage random selection techniques employed;


    Municipal quotas ensure the population is represented according to its
    actual distribution;


    At tabulation stage, weighting adjustments bring basic characteristics of
    age, gender and region into their correct known proportions based on
    Statistics Canada population figures


    Interviewing conducted September 4th to 19th, 2012

                                                                                2
Good Time to Sell a House/Condo in Next 3 Months




           Mar '12              56%                     33%        10%


           Sep '12        34%                      58%               9%



                                 Yes      No     Don't know




                Base:                Total Mar’12 (n=278)
                                     Total Sep’12 (n=550)


                Q.1a) Do you think that it is a good time to sell a house or a
                condo in the next 3 months?




                                                                                 3
Reasons Think Good Time to Sell in Next 3 Months
                                                                      Good time to sell
                                                              Total    Yes         No
                                                              (498)   (183)       (314)
                                                                %       %           %
       Prices will go down/market correction/housing bubble    32      24           37
       Housing market is soft/sales have slowed down           17      4            25
       Prices are high                                         16      26           10
       It’s a buyer’s market/too many properties for sale      12      6            16
       Concerned about the economy                             6       4            7
       Housing prices have stabilized                          5       7            4
       It’s a seller’s market                                  5       13            -
       Prices will continue to rise                            4       4            5
       Interest rates are low                                  4       8            1
       Bad time of year to sell                                3        -           5
       Prices are low/reasonable                               3       4            3
       New mortgage lending rules                              2       3            2
       Good time of year to sell                               2       4            1
       Economy is improving                                    2       4            1
       HST/taxes concerns                                      1        -           2
       Population growth/immigration                           1       2            1
       Foreign investors                                       1        -           1
       Miscellaneous                                           4       4            3
                                                                                          4
       Nothing/no comment/none                                 9       10           7
       Q.1b) Why do you say that?
Good Time to Buy a House/Condo in Next 3 Months




          Mar '12            46%                   42%           13%


          Sep '12             50%                   38%          12%



                                 Yes     No     Don't know




              Base:                Total Mar’12 (n=278)
                                   Total Sep’12 (n=550)
              Q.2a) Do you think that it is a good time to buy a house or a
              condo in the next 3 months?




                                                                              5
Reasons Think Good Time to Buy in Next 3 Months

                                                                      Good time to buy
                                                              Total    Yes        No
                                                              (481)   (289)      (192)
                                                                %       %          %
       Prices will go down/market correction/housing bubble    28      27         29
       It’s a buyer’s market/too many properties for sale      17      28          3
       Prices are high                                         16      3          34
       Interest rates are low                                  13      22          2
       Housing market is soft/sales have slowed down           8       10          5
       Concerned about the economy                             8       2          16
       Prices are low/reasonable                               4       8           -
       Prices will continue to rise                            4       7           1
       Housing prices have stabilized                          4       4           2
       New mortgage lending rules                              2       1           3
       Bad time of year to sell                                2       2           2
       HST/taxes concerns                                      1        -          3
       Economy is improving                                    1       2          <1
       It’s a seller’s market                                  1       1           1
       Miscellaneous                                           4       5           4
       Nothing/no comment/none                                 11      10         12
                                                                                         6
       Q.1b) Why do you say that?
Reasons Continue to Reside in the Lower Mainland


                                                                                                    Total
                                                                                                    (550)
                                                                                                      %
         Family                                                                                      43
         Job                                                                                         30
         Climate                                                                                     18
         Scenery                                                                                     16
         Lived here a long time/all my life                                                          14
         Location (i.e. best place to live, transit, close to parks, shopping)                       11
         Quality of life/lifestyle (i.e. multicultural, restaurants, activities)                     9
         Outdoor lifestyle                                                                           8
         Friends                                                                                     8
         Education/schools                                                                           7
         Own my home/mortgage free                                                                   5
         Love it here/wouldn’t want to go anywhere else                                              4
         Can’t afford to live anywhere else/can’t afford to move                                     3
         Miscellaneous                                                                               4
         Don’t know                                                                                  2
         Q.3) As you know, the Lower Mainland is an expensive place to live, what keeps you here?
                                                                                                            7
Distribution of Interviews

                                                                Mar ‘12   Sep ‘12
                                                                 (278)     (550)
                                                                   %         %
       Home Tenure
         Rent                                                     22        25
         Own                                                      76        73
         Refused                                                   1         1
       Gender
         Male                                                     49        48
         Female                                                   51        52
       Age
         18 to 34                                                 29        29
         35 to 54                                                 40        38
         55 to 64                                                 14        16
         65 +                                                     17        17
         Refused                                                  <1         -
       Region
         Vancouver                                                27        25
         North Shore                                               8         7
         Burnaby/New Westminster                                  12        12
         Tri-cities/Maple Ridge/Pitt Meadows (inc. Coquitlam/
                                                                  11        12
         Port Moody/Port Coquitlam/Anmore/Belcarra)
         Richmond/Tsawwassen/Ladner/South Delta                   10        10
         Surrey/White Rock/North Delta/Langley/East to
                                                                  24        26
         Aldergrove                                                                 8
         Fraser Valley                                            10         9
Confidence Limits

    A reported finding of 50% would fall between 45.5% and 54.5%
    most of the time. Accuracy increases for findings above and below
    50%. The table below illustrates tolerance limits for various
    incidence levels at several subgroup sizes. This table applies to
    observed differences within one study.


                                  TOLERANCE LIMITS
                             (± range in percentage points)

                     n=500    n=400     n=300     n=250       n=200   n=100   n=50

         50%          4.4       4.9       5.7       6.2        6.9     9.8    13.9

         40 or 60%    4.3       4.8       5.5       6.1        6.8     9.6    13.6

         30 or 70%    4.0       4.5       5.2       5.7        6.4     9.0    12.7

         20 or 80%    3.5       3.9       4.5       5.0        5.5     7.8    11.1

         10 or 90%    2.6       2.9       3.4       3.7        4.2     5.9    8.3

         5 or 95%     1.9       2.1       2.5       2.7        3.0     4.3    6.0



     Exercise caution when interpreting data based on samples of less
     than 50. Such results must be treated as directional only.
                                                                                     9
Confidence Limits

    A reported finding of 50% would fall between 45.5% and 54.5%
    most of the time. Accuracy increases for findings above and below
    50%. The table below illustrates tolerance limits for various
    incidence levels at several subgroup sizes. This table applies to
    observed differences within one study.


                                  TOLERANCE LIMITS
                             (± range in percentage points)

                     n=500    n=400     n=300     n=250       n=200   n=100   n=50

         50%          4.4       4.9       5.7       6.2        6.9     9.8    13.9

         40 or 60%    4.3       4.8       5.5       6.1        6.8     9.6    13.6

         30 or 70%    4.0       4.5       5.2       5.7        6.4     9.0    12.7

         20 or 80%    3.5       3.9       4.5       5.0        5.5     7.8    11.1

         10 or 90%    2.6       2.9       3.4       3.7        4.2     5.9    8.3

         5 or 95%     1.9       2.1       2.5       2.7        3.0     4.3    6.0



     Exercise caution when interpreting data based on samples of less
     than 50. Such results must be treated as directional only.
                                                                                     9

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Good Time to Sell or Buy: 2012 REW.ca Survey

  • 1. September 2012 Real Estate Weekly September 2012 Omnibus Survey Results 1
  • 2. Introduction 550 telephone interviews with Metro Vancouver & Fraser Valley adults, 18 years and over; Margin of error: ±4.2% at 95% confidence level in the most conservative case; 7.2% point spread required between measures; Industry-standard, multi-stage random selection techniques employed; Municipal quotas ensure the population is represented according to its actual distribution; At tabulation stage, weighting adjustments bring basic characteristics of age, gender and region into their correct known proportions based on Statistics Canada population figures Interviewing conducted September 4th to 19th, 2012 2
  • 3. Good Time to Sell a House/Condo in Next 3 Months Mar '12 56% 33% 10% Sep '12 34% 58% 9% Yes No Don't know Base: Total Mar’12 (n=278) Total Sep’12 (n=550) Q.1a) Do you think that it is a good time to sell a house or a condo in the next 3 months? 3
  • 4. Reasons Think Good Time to Sell in Next 3 Months Good time to sell Total Yes No (498) (183) (314) % % % Prices will go down/market correction/housing bubble 32 24 37 Housing market is soft/sales have slowed down 17 4 25 Prices are high 16 26 10 It’s a buyer’s market/too many properties for sale 12 6 16 Concerned about the economy 6 4 7 Housing prices have stabilized 5 7 4 It’s a seller’s market 5 13 - Prices will continue to rise 4 4 5 Interest rates are low 4 8 1 Bad time of year to sell 3 - 5 Prices are low/reasonable 3 4 3 New mortgage lending rules 2 3 2 Good time of year to sell 2 4 1 Economy is improving 2 4 1 HST/taxes concerns 1 - 2 Population growth/immigration 1 2 1 Foreign investors 1 - 1 Miscellaneous 4 4 3 4 Nothing/no comment/none 9 10 7 Q.1b) Why do you say that?
  • 5. Good Time to Buy a House/Condo in Next 3 Months Mar '12 46% 42% 13% Sep '12 50% 38% 12% Yes No Don't know Base: Total Mar’12 (n=278) Total Sep’12 (n=550) Q.2a) Do you think that it is a good time to buy a house or a condo in the next 3 months? 5
  • 6. Reasons Think Good Time to Buy in Next 3 Months Good time to buy Total Yes No (481) (289) (192) % % % Prices will go down/market correction/housing bubble 28 27 29 It’s a buyer’s market/too many properties for sale 17 28 3 Prices are high 16 3 34 Interest rates are low 13 22 2 Housing market is soft/sales have slowed down 8 10 5 Concerned about the economy 8 2 16 Prices are low/reasonable 4 8 - Prices will continue to rise 4 7 1 Housing prices have stabilized 4 4 2 New mortgage lending rules 2 1 3 Bad time of year to sell 2 2 2 HST/taxes concerns 1 - 3 Economy is improving 1 2 <1 It’s a seller’s market 1 1 1 Miscellaneous 4 5 4 Nothing/no comment/none 11 10 12 6 Q.1b) Why do you say that?
  • 7. Reasons Continue to Reside in the Lower Mainland Total (550) % Family 43 Job 30 Climate 18 Scenery 16 Lived here a long time/all my life 14 Location (i.e. best place to live, transit, close to parks, shopping) 11 Quality of life/lifestyle (i.e. multicultural, restaurants, activities) 9 Outdoor lifestyle 8 Friends 8 Education/schools 7 Own my home/mortgage free 5 Love it here/wouldn’t want to go anywhere else 4 Can’t afford to live anywhere else/can’t afford to move 3 Miscellaneous 4 Don’t know 2 Q.3) As you know, the Lower Mainland is an expensive place to live, what keeps you here? 7
  • 8. Distribution of Interviews Mar ‘12 Sep ‘12 (278) (550) % % Home Tenure Rent 22 25 Own 76 73 Refused 1 1 Gender Male 49 48 Female 51 52 Age 18 to 34 29 29 35 to 54 40 38 55 to 64 14 16 65 + 17 17 Refused <1 - Region Vancouver 27 25 North Shore 8 7 Burnaby/New Westminster 12 12 Tri-cities/Maple Ridge/Pitt Meadows (inc. Coquitlam/ 11 12 Port Moody/Port Coquitlam/Anmore/Belcarra) Richmond/Tsawwassen/Ladner/South Delta 10 10 Surrey/White Rock/North Delta/Langley/East to 24 26 Aldergrove 8 Fraser Valley 10 9
  • 9. Confidence Limits A reported finding of 50% would fall between 45.5% and 54.5% most of the time. Accuracy increases for findings above and below 50%. The table below illustrates tolerance limits for various incidence levels at several subgroup sizes. This table applies to observed differences within one study. TOLERANCE LIMITS (± range in percentage points) n=500 n=400 n=300 n=250 n=200 n=100 n=50 50% 4.4 4.9 5.7 6.2 6.9 9.8 13.9 40 or 60% 4.3 4.8 5.5 6.1 6.8 9.6 13.6 30 or 70% 4.0 4.5 5.2 5.7 6.4 9.0 12.7 20 or 80% 3.5 3.9 4.5 5.0 5.5 7.8 11.1 10 or 90% 2.6 2.9 3.4 3.7 4.2 5.9 8.3 5 or 95% 1.9 2.1 2.5 2.7 3.0 4.3 6.0 Exercise caution when interpreting data based on samples of less than 50. Such results must be treated as directional only. 9
  • 10. Confidence Limits A reported finding of 50% would fall between 45.5% and 54.5% most of the time. Accuracy increases for findings above and below 50%. The table below illustrates tolerance limits for various incidence levels at several subgroup sizes. This table applies to observed differences within one study. TOLERANCE LIMITS (± range in percentage points) n=500 n=400 n=300 n=250 n=200 n=100 n=50 50% 4.4 4.9 5.7 6.2 6.9 9.8 13.9 40 or 60% 4.3 4.8 5.5 6.1 6.8 9.6 13.6 30 or 70% 4.0 4.5 5.2 5.7 6.4 9.0 12.7 20 or 80% 3.5 3.9 4.5 5.0 5.5 7.8 11.1 10 or 90% 2.6 2.9 3.4 3.7 4.2 5.9 8.3 5 or 95% 1.9 2.1 2.5 2.7 3.0 4.3 6.0 Exercise caution when interpreting data based on samples of less than 50. Such results must be treated as directional only. 9