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PMS
INCRED HEALTHCARE
PORTFOLIO
PMS
02
Investment Team
Aditya Khemka
Principal Officer/Portfolio Manager
•
•
•
•
•
Over 16 years experience in healthcare businesses and investments. Rich global
working experience in the US, EU, Latin America and in India
Has performed various roles like member of the treasury department of the
company managing debt, working capital and financial due diligence of
acquisitions target in Glenmark (2006-2007), institutional equities analyst for
Lehman, Nomura and Ambit Capital (2008-2015) and Healthcare fund manager
for DSP (2015-2020)
Qualifications - MSc. (Finance), PGDM (MDI, Gurgaon), CIIA (UK), CFA (ICFAI)
Has formulated and executed a product strategy in DSP that drove alpha over
the benchmark in 18 months with low churn and highest Sharpe ratio amongst
peers
Believes in bottom-up research and understanding the source of cash flows and
their sustainability
PMS
Healthcare – A Secular Theme
The Indian Pharma Market (IPM) is a secularly growing segment
with extremely high RoE due to the brands owned by pharma
companies. We expect the market to continue to grow at
8%-10% in sales and mid to high teens in profits
US generic market has gone through an earnings downcycle over
past 4 years and has seen signs of earnings recovery. Better
pricing and gain in volumes as competition may get crowded out
would lead to better RoE of the business in coming years
A ‘valuation-gap’ exists today in many companies where the poor
RoE of US business is suppressing the overall RoE and valuation
multiples. We expect this to reverse as US generic profitability
improves
We believe the consolidated valuation as of now lends a negative
valuation to the capital guzzler (US generics) implying that this
business may never turn positive and losses in the business may
compound over time. This is highly unlikely and also unreasoable
03
An average Large cap Indian Pharma company in FY22
In Rs. Indian business US business API/ROW Consolidated
Revenue 30.0 50.0 20.0 100.0
EBITDA 12.0 5.0 5.0 22.0
Deprecia�on 0.5 6.0 0.5 7.0
Interest income 2.0 - 0.5 2.5
Interest expense - 5.0 - 5.0
PBT 13.5 -6.0 5.0 12.5
Tax 2.0 - 1.0 3.0
PAT 11.5 -6.0 4.0 9.5
Capital Employed 25.0 50.0 25.0 100.0
RoE 46% -12% 16% 10%
Mul�ple at CMP 20 PE
Price of stock 190.00 (20x9.5)
Same example without US business in FY22
In Rs. Indian business US business API/ROW Consolidated
Revenue 30.0 20.0 50.0
EBITDA 12.0 5.0 17.0
Deprecia�on 0.5 0.5 1.0
Interest income 2.0 0.5 2.5
Interest expense - - -
PBT 13.5 5.0 18.5
Tax 2.0 1.0 3.0
PAT 11.5 4.0 15.5
Capital Employed 25.0 25.0 50.0
RoE 46% 16% 31%
Mul�ple at CMP 25 PE (higher due to >30% ROE)
Price of stock 387.50 (25x15.5)
Secular vs. Cyclical – Story with Different Endings
Source: InternalCompila�on
Current valuations imply a negative valuation for the US
generics business. Giving a ‘0’ value to this lossmaking
business and ascribing higher multiple to the stable
domestic business (with higher RoCE) may translate
to meaningful upside in relevant stocks.
PMS
IPCA Investment Strategy
04
(INRm) FY14
Domestic Sales 9,294
PAT 1859
Domestic EPS 14.8
ex-DF sales 23,524
PAT 2931
ex-DF EPS 23.3
Total EPS 38.0
FY16
11,667
2333
18.5
17,004
-1402
-11.1
7.4
FY20
19,126
3825
30.4
27,361
2787
22.1
52.5
FY15
11,287
2257
17.9
20,127
281
2.2
20.1
FY17
13,886
2777
22.0
17,681
-771
-6.1
15.9
FY18
14,254
2851
22.6
18,324
-710
-5.6
17.0
FY19
16,468
3294
26.1
20,989
854
6.8
32.9
FY21
24,510
5825
32,059
6800
46.5
92.5
IPCA stock price fell ~50% by Aug-17 from highs of Feb-14 due to import alert in US business
Our investment thesis was built around high conviction in the domestic business and international business
to cut losses eventually. Domestic business delivered 13% earnings CAGR for FY16-18 while international business
(ex-US) reached pre-import alert profitability. IPCA significantly cut opex for its US biz during this time.
Stock was up 3x in Mar-20 from the lows of Mar-16
While overall EPS for FY16 came in at Rs 7.4 (Rs 38 in FY14), the domestic business continued to deliver ~11% earnings CAGR.
It was the ex-DF business which contributed negatively to the earnings
Stock Price:
Rs1,360
Stock Price:
Rs408
Stock Price:
Rs886
46.0
Source: InternalCompila�on
The above company is for illustra�on purposes only for explaining the above concept. The company men�oned above may or may not form part of the Investment
Approach/Product.
PMS
05
Why Indian Healthcare ?
• Pricing pressure easing in US market as companies start optimizing their portfolios (price erosion now at 4% vs 17% in 2017)
• China which is largely dominated by MNCs (~85% ms) is now looking at Indian companies to introduce generics (China market size USD150bn)
• Branded generics has high sustainable cash flows, low capex & high RoE with high barriers to entry (8-10% growth & 40%-80% RoE)
• Increasing lifestyle related diseases, better diagnostics and affordability driven by Ayushman Bharat (affordability to expand from 150-200m
individuals to 500-600m individuals over time)
• Diagnostics is 85% unorganized. With increase in health awareness, the organized players are expected to benefit the most
• Broader market growing at 10% pa and organized gaining share. High RoE and low reinvestment needs
Source: IQVIA, KPMG report, Internal
Pricing pressure easing & RoE’s seeing revival
Unbranded Generics
High margin, low capex & steady cash flow business
Branded Generics
APIs/CDMO/CMO
Capex phase largely over; time to monetize
Hospitals
Low penetration to benefit organized players
Diagnostics
• Indian hospital players have incurred huge capex to increase capacity which is coming to an end
(Mature hospitals RoE at ~20% vsconsolidated 4%-12%)
• This may lead to better margins, cash flows and lower debt resulting in re-rating of the business
• Anti-China rhetoric could play out well for Indian API players. China exports ~USD 30bn worth of APIs vs ~USD 4bn from India. A 10% shift in demand
can double India’s API industry size
• Given noncompliance to ESG and recent supply disruptions, Big Pharma is also looking at diversifying sourcing beyond China
‘China + 1’ a huge boost to API players
PMS
06
GDP & Healthcare
We observe that as GDP per capita increases, healthcare spend increases significantly. Developed economies have a very expenditure
on Healthcare as % of GDP vs developing economies.
This gives us comfort that there is significant headroom for growth in this sector for India.
Source: World Bank
1,168 1,961 3,058 6,748 8,405 9,322 10,672 11,786 29,600 39,102 40,520 48,617 49,000 53,749
3.2% 3.5%
5.0%
8.3%
5.4% 5.4%
9.5%
5.3%
9.0%
10.0%
11.3% 10.8% 10.9%
16.9%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
Pakistan
India
Egypt
South
Africa
China
Mexico
Brazil
Russia
Spain
United
Kingdom
France
Canada
Japan
United
States
GDP per capita ($) 2018 Healthcare as a % of GDP
PMS
07
GDP & Healthcare
Source: World Bank
Brazil
India
Healthcare spend per capita: USD73
GDP per capita: USD 2,000
GDP per capita: USD 9,000
Healthcare spend per capita: USD848
For India to equal Brazil’s healthcare
per capita spend, the industry must
grow at 18% over the next 15 years
PMS
08
Healthcare Growth Faster Than Economy
Source: Industry
25% 28% 28% 25% 22% 20%
16% 13% 13%
11%
10% 10%
8%
7%
6%
5%
4% 3%
7%
8% 7%
8%
7% 10%
7%
6% 6%
7%
8% 8%
8%
8% 7%
7%
8% 8%
16%
13%
11%
14%
14% 14%
15%
15% 16%
3% 3%
3% 5%
7% 10%
13%
13% 16%
20% 18%
17%
19%
21%
21%
24%
28%
27%
11% 12% 17% 14% 14% 13% 13% 13% 11%
1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
F&B Clothing Fuel/Energy Other Non-Durables Housing Healthcare Other Services Durable Goods
US personal consumption expenditure
• In the US, Healthcare grew much faster than other sectors over the last century
• India current healthcare spend per capita is 3.5% of the GDP per capita which is where the US was in 1930s-1950s.
We see huge runway for growth in healthcare as GDP per capita rises over the next few decades.
PMS
Valuations below 10-yr average
09
Source: Bloomberg | Data as on 31st December 2022 | * EBITDA – Earnings before Interest, Taxation, Depreciation and Amortization
Improvement in business and ROE may lead earnings
growth and rerating of the sector going forward
Trading at 38% premium to Nifty vs 10-yr avg. of 42% Trading at 19% premium to Nifty vs 10-yr avg. of 46%
and peak premium of 143%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
Dec-12
Jun-13
Dec-13
Jun-14
Dec-14
Jun-15
Dec-15
Jun-16
Dec-16
Jun-17
Dec-17
Jun-18
Dec-18
Jun-19
Dec-19
Jun-20
Dec-20
Jun-21
Dec-21
Jun-22
Dec-22
EV/EBITDA
Premium/(discount) to Nifty 10-year average
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
Dec-12
Jun-13
Dec-13
Jun-14
Dec-14
Jun-15
Dec-15
Jun-16
Dec-16
Jun-17
Dec-17
Jun-18
Dec-18
Jun-19
Dec-19
Jun-20
Dec-20
Jun-21
Dec-21
Jun-22
Dec-22
P/B
Premium/(discount) to Nifty 10-year average
7
12
17
22
27
Dec-12
Jun-13
Dec-13
Jun-14
Dec-14
Jun-15
Dec-15
Jun-16
Dec-16
Jun-17
Dec-17
Jun-18
Dec-18
Jun-19
Dec-19
Jun-20
Dec-20
Jun-21
Dec-21
Jun-22
Dec-22
RoE
BSE Healthcare RoE Average RoE
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Weights (%) Average 1+ STD 2+ STD 1- STD 2- STD
Healthcare Weight in NSE 500 (M-o-M) in %
Jun-02
Dec-02
Jun-03
Dec-03
Jun-04
Dec-04
Jun-05
Dec-05
Jun-06
Dec-06
Jun-07
Dec-07
Jun-08
Dec-08
Jun-09
Dec-09
Jun-10
Dec-10
Jun-11
Dec-11
Jun-12
Dec-12
Jun-13
Dec-13
Jun-14
Dec-14
Jun-15
Dec-15
Jun-16
Dec-16
Jun-17
Dec-17
Jun-18
Dec-18
Jun-19
Dec-19
Jun-20
Dec-20
Jun-21
Dec-21
Jun-22
Dec-22
PMS
Sustainability & Not Size Matters
Large is not necessarily safe – Sun Pharma vs Ipca Labs
Ipca’s share price outperformance… …and better fundamentals
Sun Pharma Ipca
Revenue CAGR (FY17-22)
- 4% 13%
EBITDA CAGR (FY17-22)
- 0.6% 25%
PAT CAGR (FY17-22)
- 2% 35%
Adj. RoE FY17 29% 8%
Adj. RoE FY22 16% 16%
Source: Bloomberg
Past performance may or may not be sustained in the future and is no guarantee of future results.
The above companies are for illustration purposes only for explaining the above concept. The companies mentioned above may or may not form part of the Investment Approach/Product.
10
It’s not just the scale but sustainability of earnings.
Even after stellar outperformance, Ipca Labs market
cap is <1/5 of Sun Pharma
In our assessment, IPCAs generic business contributed less than 10% to the total EBITDA in FY22 while for Sun Pharma (incl. US
specialty) the contribution is ~40%.
PMS
Healthcare not a Sectoral Call
11
Data Source: Computation: Internal. *Segments defined by InCred Healthcare Fund Manager
*To read on our thesis for like-to-like comparison, please refer slide 12. The above comparison is being provided for informational purposes, for model client vis-a-vis
thematic mutual funds following healthcare and pharma theme as on 31st November. The comparison is being provided for said 5 different healthcare sector
segments, as defined by Fund Manager, to depict overweight/underweight stance under InCred Healthcare portfolio
Healthcare portfolio offers a solution that invests in 5 baskets of businesses.
Upon closer examination, one can deduce that the portfolio in itself is a multi-cap diversified equity portfolio with
exposure to 5 segments. The only difference is that consumption in healthcare in non-discretionary and secularly
growing, whereas for these analogies, consumption is discretionary.
•
•
Is a Healthcare PMS allocation a sectoral call? - We believe NOT.
How much should one allocate? - 10%-15% of equity portfolio is justified.
Healthcare is a sector in India, where the
companies that you invest, are globally
compe��ve.
Large Cap
Mid Cap
Small Cap
Weight
~20%
30%-40%
40%-50%
% of por�olio in Avg. Of compe�ng funds (%)
Same economic model as* Incred Healthcare PMS (%)
BSE Healthcare
(% weight)
Branded Apparel Retail
Quick service Restaurants
Metals and commodity
Chemicals, Industries
FMCG
Hospitals
Diagnos�cs
Generics
API
Branded Generics
Others
Grand Total
14.7
2.3
45.3
8.4
24.3
5.2
100
15.9
3.0
48.4
16.7
16.0
-
100
16.8
11.2
8.1
15.1
39.6
9.2
100
Capitalisa�on
PMS
12
Notes
Our thesis for like-to-like comparison
Hospitals
Diagnostics
-
API
Branded
Generics
Unbranded
Generics
We believe that hospital companies work on similar business model as apparel retail segment,
where hospitals have to open new units, track performance of existing hospitals and have similar
economics as retail stores
Just like QSR companies where per store economics, opening of new stores, etc. matter,
diagnostic companies too have to open new centers, expand into newer markets
In unbranded generics demand supply determines the price, and hence we believe these
companies do not have pricing power; similar to metals and commodity companies
Similar to industrials, API companies have huge capacity, higher utilization improves operational
efficiencies, scope for China +1 strategy, have global cost leadership
Branded generics is being considered like FMCG, as patients tend to prefer brands of reputed
companies, have large distribution channel, have pricing power, marketing and promotional
activities can drive sales
PMS
A Diversified Sector
13
OCF Correla�on Torrent Divis Dr Lal
DRL 0.87 0.85 0.81
Torrent 1.00 0.71 0.64
Divis 0.71 1.00 0.96
Apollo Hospitals 0.61 0.86 0.93
DrLal 0.64 0.96 1.00
HUL 0.55 0.89 0.97
Ultratech Cement 0.57 0.92 0.95
Infosys
DRL
1.00
0.87
0.85
0.79
0.81
0.73
0.78
0.78 0.60 0.91
Apollo
Hospitals
0.79
0.61
0.86
1.00
0.93
0.93
0.95
0.92 0.98
HUL
0.73
0.55
0.89
0.93
0.97
1.00
0.92
0.98
Ultratech
Cement
0.78
0.57
0.92
0.95
0.95
0.92
1.00
0.94
Infosys
0.78
0.60
0.91
0.92
0.98
0.98
0.94
1.00
*OCF- Operating Cash Flow
The above companies are for illustration purposes only for explaining the above concept. The companies mentioned above may or may not form part of the Investment Approach/Product.
PMS
Healthcare outperformance
Is a Healthcare PMS allocation a tactical call? - We believe NOT.
Source: Investing.com
14
Data from Jan-12 to December-22
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Ni�y50 BSE Healthcare Mid cap 100 Small Cap 100 Large Cap Healthcare SMID Healthcare
• Since 2012, the BSE Healthcare Index has
outperformed Nifty by ~11%
• Large cap healthcare companies
underperformed both Nifty50 (-47%) as well
as BSE healthcare (-58% annualized) during
the same period.
• SMID Healthcare stocks led the pharma rally
as they outperformed Nifty50 by 274% and
BSE Healthcare by 263% during the same period.
PMS
Cyclicality Only In One Domain
15
*OCF CV -OPERATING CASH FLOW, COEFFICIENT OF VARIATION
Source: Investing.com
The above company is for illustration purposes only for explaining the above concept.The company mentioned above may or may not form part of the Investment Approach/Product.
Past performance may or may not be sustained in the future and is no guarantee of future results.
PMS
16
US: A Treadmill Segment
Source: AIOCD
4.5
2.2
-0.8
3.5
5.4
4.8
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Mar'16 Mar'17 Mar'18 Mar'19 Mar'20 Mar'21
Domes�c Price Growth (%)
Source: IQVIA
US Generic Price Erosion (%)
Annual
Generic
Sales
Change
(yoy)
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
-20%
-25%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
Jan-15
Apr-15
Jul-15
Oct-15
Jan-16
Apr-16
Jan-13
Apr-16
Jul-16
Jan-16
Oct-16
Jan-17
Apr-17
Jul-17
Oct-17
Jan-18
Apr-18
Jal-18
Oct-18
Jan-19
Apr-19
Jul-19
Oct-19
Jan-20
Apr-20
Jul-20
Oct-20
Jan-21
Apr-21
-3%
PMS
17
Next Downcycle a Decade A Way
20%
30%
45%
50%
55%
60%
6%
25%
3% 12%
21%
25%
10% 23%
15%
24%
30% 32%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
2010 2015 2021 2024 2030 2030-35
India US RoW / API Consolidated
17%
0%
25%
60%
Many investors believe that healthcare is a cyclical play taking cues from the upcycle between 2009-2015
and the downcycle thereafter. We dig deeper and try to address the concern!
What happened? We discern that downcycle post 2015 started when US business RoEs reached ~25% levels.
This is when the industry attracted high level of competition. Consequently, RoEs started to plummet,
with US RoEs dropping to ~3% levels in FY21. Thus, BSE Healthcare peak RoE of 23% in FY15 fell to 15% in FY21
How is it different this time? We notice that, while in 2015,
RoEs of India business stood at ~30%, they were much better
in FY21 (~45%) and we expect them to peak out at ~60%
levels somewhere around FY30-35.
We also expect US to improve from ~3% to ~25% by then
How it matters? With increased RoEs from India business,
the consolidated RoE uptick this time may be much more
immune. Thus, when US RoEs reach ~25% in 2030-35,
and start to see a downcycle, the subsequent RoE impact
may be much lower. According to our estimates,
even if US RoEs go to zero, the overall RoEs might
still be ~17% (~15% in FY21). Even in a worst case scenario,
RoEs should be better than what they are today!
•
•
•
•
PMS
18
Pharma Outperformed During High Inflation
Source: Bloomberg
Past performance may or may not be sustained in the future and is no guarantee of future results.
15.3%
20.2%
22.0%
23.9%
26.9%
27.2%
27.3%
28.0%
33.7%
36.7%
39.1%
40.9%
41.2%
43.2%
0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0%
Pharma
IT
Media
FMCG
Realty
PSU Bank
Auto
NIFTY Index
PSE
Infrastructure
Energy
Bank
Financial Services
Metal
Avg. return (%)
India equity market: Sector wise avg. returns when Infla�on >= 3% to < 5%
-12.6%
1.4%
9.6%
13.5%
14.7%
14.9%
15.3%
16.0%
17.6%
18.1%
19.2%
23.0%
24.0%
27.5%
-15.0% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0%
Realty
PSU Bank
FMCG
Auto
Media
IT
Financial Services
NIFTY Index
PSE
Infrastructure
Pharma
Bank
Energy
Metal
Avg. return (%)
India equity market: Sector wise avg. returns when Infla�on >= 5% to < 7%
-2.7%
0.8%
2.5%
6.7%
8.5%
12.2%
14.5%
18.6%
19.3%
20.7%
21.7%
21.8%
24.6%
28.4%
-5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0%
Infrastructure
Realty
PSE
Energy
Media
NIFTY Index
PSU Bank
Bank
Financial Services
Metal
FMCG
IT
Pharma
Auto
Avg. return (%)
India equity market: Sector wise avg. returns when Infla�on >= 7%
PMS
19
Decision Making Process
Buy
Sizing
Sell
• "Great" business at fair price
• "Good" businesses at
discounted value vs intrinsic value
• Avoid "Bad" businesses
• Optimal diversification
• Allocation base on conviction
• When incremental Upside-
Downside ratio is unfavorable
• When the underlying business starts to
deviate from the investment thesis
A score of 3 is granted if the company fulfills the Great Business parameters listed in the last slide. A score of 2 is
given if the company fulfills the Good Business parameters and -2 is for Bad Business
Maximum score can be 30
ROIC : Return on Invested Capital; WACC Weighted Average Cost of Capital. The above examples are for illustration purpose only.
The companies mentioned above may or may not form part of the Investment Approach/Fund/Scheme.
PMS
20
Framework Examples
Our Criteria TORRENT IPCA DIVIS AJANTA SYNGENE THYROCARE JB CHEM ALKEM INDOCO
Quan�ta�ve
RoIC v/s WACC ✓✓✓ ✓✓ ✓✓✓ ✓✓✓ ✓✓ ✓✓✓ ✓✓✓ ✓✓✓ ✓✓
Capital Structure ✓✓ ✓✓✓ ✓✓✓ ✓✓✓ ✓✓✓ ✓✓✓ ✓✓✓ ✓✓✓ ✓✓✓
Cash Flow Adequacy ✓✓✓ ✓✓✓ ✓✓ ✓✓ ✓✓✓ ✓✓✓ ✓✓ ✓✓ ✓✓✓
Covenants ✓✓✓ ✓✓ ✓✓✓ ✓✓✓ ✓✓✓ ✓✓✓ ✓✓✓ ✓✓✓ ✓✓
Growth ✓✓✓ ✓✓✓ ✓✓✓ ✓✓✓ ✓✓✓ ✓✓ ✓✓ ✓✓✓ ✓✓
Qualita�ve
Compe��ve Advantage ✓✓✓ ✓✓✓ ✓✓✓ ✓✓✓ ✓✓✓ ✓✓ ✓✓ ✓✓ ✓✓✓
Pricing Power ✓✓✓ ✓✓✓ ✓✓✓ ✓✓ ✓✓ -✓✓ ✓✓ ✓✓ ✓✓
Character of Management ✓✓ ✓✓✓ ✓✓ ✓✓✓ ✓✓✓ ✓✓ ✓✓✓ ✓✓✓ ✓✓
Alignment of Interest with Minority ✓✓✓ ✓✓ ✓✓ ✓✓ ✓✓ ✓✓✓ ✓✓✓ ✓✓ ✓✓✓
Dependence of External Variables ✓✓ ✓✓ ✓✓ ✓✓ ✓✓ ✓✓ ✓✓ ✓✓ ✓✓
Score 27 26 26 26 26 21 25 25 24
PMS
21
Portfolio Fundamentals
Por�olio expected to see 11% revenue growth
and EBITDA margin expansion of 180bps
(FY22-24E)
Por�olio earnings growth expected ~21%
CAGR (FY22-24E) with improved ROCE (350 bps)
and free cash flow
Valua�on on forward basis at P/E 21.7x 2yr
forward
EBITDA : Earnings before Interest, Tax, Deprecia�on and Amor�za�on;
RoCE : Return on Capital Employed;
Disclaimer: Expected por�olio fundamentals; Source: Incred AMC research; Por�olio excluding Insurance companies
FY21(Actual) FY22E FY23E FY24E
Total Sales 31,119 34,869 38,301 43,248
Growth YoY (%)
Growth YoY (%)
Growth YoY (%)
12.1% 9.8% 12.9%
EBITDA 6,374 6,515 6,912 8,860
2.2% 6.1% 28.2%
EBITDA Margin (%) 20.5% 18.7% 18.0% 20.5%
PAT 3,031 3,184 3,277 4,678
5.1% 2.9% 42.8%
PAT Margin (%) 9.7% 9.1% 8.6% 10.8%
RoCE 14.0% 13.3% 13.0% 16.8%
Valuation Ratios
P/B 4.4 4.1 3.8 3.3
EV/Sales 3.4 3.1 2.8 2.4
EV/EBITDA 16.5 16.4 15.3 11.5
P/E 33.5 31.9 31.0 21.7
OCF yield 5.2% 3.8% 5.0% 6.4%
FCFF yield 3.6% 1.7% 2.0% 4.6%
PMS
22
Disclaimer
This presentation has been prepared by InCred Capital Wealth Portfolio Managers Private Limited (herein after referred to as InCred Capital PMS) solely
for informational purposes and is not an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy the units or securities or services stated herein. InCred Capital
PMS is registered with SEBI as Portfolio Manager. The information provided herein, including any third party information does not purport to be all
inclusive or to contain all the material and relevant information that the recipient may require to make an appropriate decision. The information
provided herein shall not be treated as advice pertaining to legal or taxation matters. The recipient (s) before acting on any information herein should
make his/ her/ their own investigation and seek appropriate professional advice. We have exercised due diligence in checking the authenticity and
correctness of the information contained herein but do not make any representation as to the accuracy or completeness of such information and
should not be relied upon without proper due diligence by the recipient.
Prospective investors are advised to carefully review the Disclosure Document, Client Agreement, and other related documents. InCred Capital PMS
shall not in any way be responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in this publication. Some information
contained herein may be forecasts and/or forward looking statements that are based on our current views and assumptions and involve known or
unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results or events to vary materially from those expressed and implied in such statements.
Past performance of InCred Capital PMS or its Group companies or any person connected with it does not indicate or guarantee its future performance
and there is no assurance or guarantee that the objective of the investment approach/ product will be achieved. The value of the portfolio investments
are subject to market risks and may be affected generally by factors affecting financial markets, such as price and volume, volatility in interest rates,
currency exchange rates, changes in regulatory and administrative policies of the Government or any other appropriate authority (including tax laws) or
other political and economic developments. No claims may be made or entertained for any variances between the performance depictions and
individual portfolio performance. Investment decisions or recommendations made by InCred PMS may not always be profitable, as actual market
movements maybe at a variance with anticipated trends. Neither InCred Capital PMS, its Directors, Employees or representatives shall be in any way
liable for any variations noticed in the returns of individual portfolios.
The information contained herein is subject to change without any prior notice. InCred Capital PMS reserves the right to modify any statements,
information, estimates, etc as may be required from time to time. The recipient shall be solely responsible for any action undertaken using the
information provided herein , including any written or oral communication transmitted to the recipient during this presentation.
The contents are not reviewed by any regulatory authority including SEBI.
InCred Capital Wealth Portfolio Managers Private Limited (formerly known as BSH Corporate Advisors and Consultant Private Limited) Registered
Office: Unit No 1203, 12th Floor, B Wing, The Capital, C-70, B Block, BKC, Bandra (E), Mumbai – 400051
Phone: +91-22-6844 6100, Fax: +91-22-4161 1508, website: www.incredsecurities.com
CIN: U740999MH2018PTC305048 | Portfolio Manager SEBI Regn: - INP000007128
PMS
23

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InCredHealthcare-PPT.pdf

  • 2. PMS 02 Investment Team Aditya Khemka Principal Officer/Portfolio Manager • • • • • Over 16 years experience in healthcare businesses and investments. Rich global working experience in the US, EU, Latin America and in India Has performed various roles like member of the treasury department of the company managing debt, working capital and financial due diligence of acquisitions target in Glenmark (2006-2007), institutional equities analyst for Lehman, Nomura and Ambit Capital (2008-2015) and Healthcare fund manager for DSP (2015-2020) Qualifications - MSc. (Finance), PGDM (MDI, Gurgaon), CIIA (UK), CFA (ICFAI) Has formulated and executed a product strategy in DSP that drove alpha over the benchmark in 18 months with low churn and highest Sharpe ratio amongst peers Believes in bottom-up research and understanding the source of cash flows and their sustainability
  • 3. PMS Healthcare – A Secular Theme The Indian Pharma Market (IPM) is a secularly growing segment with extremely high RoE due to the brands owned by pharma companies. We expect the market to continue to grow at 8%-10% in sales and mid to high teens in profits US generic market has gone through an earnings downcycle over past 4 years and has seen signs of earnings recovery. Better pricing and gain in volumes as competition may get crowded out would lead to better RoE of the business in coming years A ‘valuation-gap’ exists today in many companies where the poor RoE of US business is suppressing the overall RoE and valuation multiples. We expect this to reverse as US generic profitability improves We believe the consolidated valuation as of now lends a negative valuation to the capital guzzler (US generics) implying that this business may never turn positive and losses in the business may compound over time. This is highly unlikely and also unreasoable 03 An average Large cap Indian Pharma company in FY22 In Rs. Indian business US business API/ROW Consolidated Revenue 30.0 50.0 20.0 100.0 EBITDA 12.0 5.0 5.0 22.0 Deprecia�on 0.5 6.0 0.5 7.0 Interest income 2.0 - 0.5 2.5 Interest expense - 5.0 - 5.0 PBT 13.5 -6.0 5.0 12.5 Tax 2.0 - 1.0 3.0 PAT 11.5 -6.0 4.0 9.5 Capital Employed 25.0 50.0 25.0 100.0 RoE 46% -12% 16% 10% Mul�ple at CMP 20 PE Price of stock 190.00 (20x9.5) Same example without US business in FY22 In Rs. Indian business US business API/ROW Consolidated Revenue 30.0 20.0 50.0 EBITDA 12.0 5.0 17.0 Deprecia�on 0.5 0.5 1.0 Interest income 2.0 0.5 2.5 Interest expense - - - PBT 13.5 5.0 18.5 Tax 2.0 1.0 3.0 PAT 11.5 4.0 15.5 Capital Employed 25.0 25.0 50.0 RoE 46% 16% 31% Mul�ple at CMP 25 PE (higher due to >30% ROE) Price of stock 387.50 (25x15.5) Secular vs. Cyclical – Story with Different Endings Source: InternalCompila�on Current valuations imply a negative valuation for the US generics business. Giving a ‘0’ value to this lossmaking business and ascribing higher multiple to the stable domestic business (with higher RoCE) may translate to meaningful upside in relevant stocks.
  • 4. PMS IPCA Investment Strategy 04 (INRm) FY14 Domestic Sales 9,294 PAT 1859 Domestic EPS 14.8 ex-DF sales 23,524 PAT 2931 ex-DF EPS 23.3 Total EPS 38.0 FY16 11,667 2333 18.5 17,004 -1402 -11.1 7.4 FY20 19,126 3825 30.4 27,361 2787 22.1 52.5 FY15 11,287 2257 17.9 20,127 281 2.2 20.1 FY17 13,886 2777 22.0 17,681 -771 -6.1 15.9 FY18 14,254 2851 22.6 18,324 -710 -5.6 17.0 FY19 16,468 3294 26.1 20,989 854 6.8 32.9 FY21 24,510 5825 32,059 6800 46.5 92.5 IPCA stock price fell ~50% by Aug-17 from highs of Feb-14 due to import alert in US business Our investment thesis was built around high conviction in the domestic business and international business to cut losses eventually. Domestic business delivered 13% earnings CAGR for FY16-18 while international business (ex-US) reached pre-import alert profitability. IPCA significantly cut opex for its US biz during this time. Stock was up 3x in Mar-20 from the lows of Mar-16 While overall EPS for FY16 came in at Rs 7.4 (Rs 38 in FY14), the domestic business continued to deliver ~11% earnings CAGR. It was the ex-DF business which contributed negatively to the earnings Stock Price: Rs1,360 Stock Price: Rs408 Stock Price: Rs886 46.0 Source: InternalCompila�on The above company is for illustra�on purposes only for explaining the above concept. The company men�oned above may or may not form part of the Investment Approach/Product.
  • 5. PMS 05 Why Indian Healthcare ? • Pricing pressure easing in US market as companies start optimizing their portfolios (price erosion now at 4% vs 17% in 2017) • China which is largely dominated by MNCs (~85% ms) is now looking at Indian companies to introduce generics (China market size USD150bn) • Branded generics has high sustainable cash flows, low capex & high RoE with high barriers to entry (8-10% growth & 40%-80% RoE) • Increasing lifestyle related diseases, better diagnostics and affordability driven by Ayushman Bharat (affordability to expand from 150-200m individuals to 500-600m individuals over time) • Diagnostics is 85% unorganized. With increase in health awareness, the organized players are expected to benefit the most • Broader market growing at 10% pa and organized gaining share. High RoE and low reinvestment needs Source: IQVIA, KPMG report, Internal Pricing pressure easing & RoE’s seeing revival Unbranded Generics High margin, low capex & steady cash flow business Branded Generics APIs/CDMO/CMO Capex phase largely over; time to monetize Hospitals Low penetration to benefit organized players Diagnostics • Indian hospital players have incurred huge capex to increase capacity which is coming to an end (Mature hospitals RoE at ~20% vsconsolidated 4%-12%) • This may lead to better margins, cash flows and lower debt resulting in re-rating of the business • Anti-China rhetoric could play out well for Indian API players. China exports ~USD 30bn worth of APIs vs ~USD 4bn from India. A 10% shift in demand can double India’s API industry size • Given noncompliance to ESG and recent supply disruptions, Big Pharma is also looking at diversifying sourcing beyond China ‘China + 1’ a huge boost to API players
  • 6. PMS 06 GDP & Healthcare We observe that as GDP per capita increases, healthcare spend increases significantly. Developed economies have a very expenditure on Healthcare as % of GDP vs developing economies. This gives us comfort that there is significant headroom for growth in this sector for India. Source: World Bank 1,168 1,961 3,058 6,748 8,405 9,322 10,672 11,786 29,600 39,102 40,520 48,617 49,000 53,749 3.2% 3.5% 5.0% 8.3% 5.4% 5.4% 9.5% 5.3% 9.0% 10.0% 11.3% 10.8% 10.9% 16.9% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0% 18.0% 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 Pakistan India Egypt South Africa China Mexico Brazil Russia Spain United Kingdom France Canada Japan United States GDP per capita ($) 2018 Healthcare as a % of GDP
  • 7. PMS 07 GDP & Healthcare Source: World Bank Brazil India Healthcare spend per capita: USD73 GDP per capita: USD 2,000 GDP per capita: USD 9,000 Healthcare spend per capita: USD848 For India to equal Brazil’s healthcare per capita spend, the industry must grow at 18% over the next 15 years
  • 8. PMS 08 Healthcare Growth Faster Than Economy Source: Industry 25% 28% 28% 25% 22% 20% 16% 13% 13% 11% 10% 10% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 7% 8% 7% 8% 7% 10% 7% 6% 6% 7% 8% 8% 8% 8% 7% 7% 8% 8% 16% 13% 11% 14% 14% 14% 15% 15% 16% 3% 3% 3% 5% 7% 10% 13% 13% 16% 20% 18% 17% 19% 21% 21% 24% 28% 27% 11% 12% 17% 14% 14% 13% 13% 13% 11% 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 F&B Clothing Fuel/Energy Other Non-Durables Housing Healthcare Other Services Durable Goods US personal consumption expenditure • In the US, Healthcare grew much faster than other sectors over the last century • India current healthcare spend per capita is 3.5% of the GDP per capita which is where the US was in 1930s-1950s. We see huge runway for growth in healthcare as GDP per capita rises over the next few decades.
  • 9. PMS Valuations below 10-yr average 09 Source: Bloomberg | Data as on 31st December 2022 | * EBITDA – Earnings before Interest, Taxation, Depreciation and Amortization Improvement in business and ROE may lead earnings growth and rerating of the sector going forward Trading at 38% premium to Nifty vs 10-yr avg. of 42% Trading at 19% premium to Nifty vs 10-yr avg. of 46% and peak premium of 143% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% Dec-12 Jun-13 Dec-13 Jun-14 Dec-14 Jun-15 Dec-15 Jun-16 Dec-16 Jun-17 Dec-17 Jun-18 Dec-18 Jun-19 Dec-19 Jun-20 Dec-20 Jun-21 Dec-21 Jun-22 Dec-22 EV/EBITDA Premium/(discount) to Nifty 10-year average -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 160% Dec-12 Jun-13 Dec-13 Jun-14 Dec-14 Jun-15 Dec-15 Jun-16 Dec-16 Jun-17 Dec-17 Jun-18 Dec-18 Jun-19 Dec-19 Jun-20 Dec-20 Jun-21 Dec-21 Jun-22 Dec-22 P/B Premium/(discount) to Nifty 10-year average 7 12 17 22 27 Dec-12 Jun-13 Dec-13 Jun-14 Dec-14 Jun-15 Dec-15 Jun-16 Dec-16 Jun-17 Dec-17 Jun-18 Dec-18 Jun-19 Dec-19 Jun-20 Dec-20 Jun-21 Dec-21 Jun-22 Dec-22 RoE BSE Healthcare RoE Average RoE 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 Weights (%) Average 1+ STD 2+ STD 1- STD 2- STD Healthcare Weight in NSE 500 (M-o-M) in % Jun-02 Dec-02 Jun-03 Dec-03 Jun-04 Dec-04 Jun-05 Dec-05 Jun-06 Dec-06 Jun-07 Dec-07 Jun-08 Dec-08 Jun-09 Dec-09 Jun-10 Dec-10 Jun-11 Dec-11 Jun-12 Dec-12 Jun-13 Dec-13 Jun-14 Dec-14 Jun-15 Dec-15 Jun-16 Dec-16 Jun-17 Dec-17 Jun-18 Dec-18 Jun-19 Dec-19 Jun-20 Dec-20 Jun-21 Dec-21 Jun-22 Dec-22
  • 10. PMS Sustainability & Not Size Matters Large is not necessarily safe – Sun Pharma vs Ipca Labs Ipca’s share price outperformance… …and better fundamentals Sun Pharma Ipca Revenue CAGR (FY17-22) - 4% 13% EBITDA CAGR (FY17-22) - 0.6% 25% PAT CAGR (FY17-22) - 2% 35% Adj. RoE FY17 29% 8% Adj. RoE FY22 16% 16% Source: Bloomberg Past performance may or may not be sustained in the future and is no guarantee of future results. The above companies are for illustration purposes only for explaining the above concept. The companies mentioned above may or may not form part of the Investment Approach/Product. 10 It’s not just the scale but sustainability of earnings. Even after stellar outperformance, Ipca Labs market cap is <1/5 of Sun Pharma In our assessment, IPCAs generic business contributed less than 10% to the total EBITDA in FY22 while for Sun Pharma (incl. US specialty) the contribution is ~40%.
  • 11. PMS Healthcare not a Sectoral Call 11 Data Source: Computation: Internal. *Segments defined by InCred Healthcare Fund Manager *To read on our thesis for like-to-like comparison, please refer slide 12. The above comparison is being provided for informational purposes, for model client vis-a-vis thematic mutual funds following healthcare and pharma theme as on 31st November. The comparison is being provided for said 5 different healthcare sector segments, as defined by Fund Manager, to depict overweight/underweight stance under InCred Healthcare portfolio Healthcare portfolio offers a solution that invests in 5 baskets of businesses. Upon closer examination, one can deduce that the portfolio in itself is a multi-cap diversified equity portfolio with exposure to 5 segments. The only difference is that consumption in healthcare in non-discretionary and secularly growing, whereas for these analogies, consumption is discretionary. • • Is a Healthcare PMS allocation a sectoral call? - We believe NOT. How much should one allocate? - 10%-15% of equity portfolio is justified. Healthcare is a sector in India, where the companies that you invest, are globally compe��ve. Large Cap Mid Cap Small Cap Weight ~20% 30%-40% 40%-50% % of por�olio in Avg. Of compe�ng funds (%) Same economic model as* Incred Healthcare PMS (%) BSE Healthcare (% weight) Branded Apparel Retail Quick service Restaurants Metals and commodity Chemicals, Industries FMCG Hospitals Diagnos�cs Generics API Branded Generics Others Grand Total 14.7 2.3 45.3 8.4 24.3 5.2 100 15.9 3.0 48.4 16.7 16.0 - 100 16.8 11.2 8.1 15.1 39.6 9.2 100 Capitalisa�on
  • 12. PMS 12 Notes Our thesis for like-to-like comparison Hospitals Diagnostics - API Branded Generics Unbranded Generics We believe that hospital companies work on similar business model as apparel retail segment, where hospitals have to open new units, track performance of existing hospitals and have similar economics as retail stores Just like QSR companies where per store economics, opening of new stores, etc. matter, diagnostic companies too have to open new centers, expand into newer markets In unbranded generics demand supply determines the price, and hence we believe these companies do not have pricing power; similar to metals and commodity companies Similar to industrials, API companies have huge capacity, higher utilization improves operational efficiencies, scope for China +1 strategy, have global cost leadership Branded generics is being considered like FMCG, as patients tend to prefer brands of reputed companies, have large distribution channel, have pricing power, marketing and promotional activities can drive sales
  • 13. PMS A Diversified Sector 13 OCF Correla�on Torrent Divis Dr Lal DRL 0.87 0.85 0.81 Torrent 1.00 0.71 0.64 Divis 0.71 1.00 0.96 Apollo Hospitals 0.61 0.86 0.93 DrLal 0.64 0.96 1.00 HUL 0.55 0.89 0.97 Ultratech Cement 0.57 0.92 0.95 Infosys DRL 1.00 0.87 0.85 0.79 0.81 0.73 0.78 0.78 0.60 0.91 Apollo Hospitals 0.79 0.61 0.86 1.00 0.93 0.93 0.95 0.92 0.98 HUL 0.73 0.55 0.89 0.93 0.97 1.00 0.92 0.98 Ultratech Cement 0.78 0.57 0.92 0.95 0.95 0.92 1.00 0.94 Infosys 0.78 0.60 0.91 0.92 0.98 0.98 0.94 1.00 *OCF- Operating Cash Flow The above companies are for illustration purposes only for explaining the above concept. The companies mentioned above may or may not form part of the Investment Approach/Product.
  • 14. PMS Healthcare outperformance Is a Healthcare PMS allocation a tactical call? - We believe NOT. Source: Investing.com 14 Data from Jan-12 to December-22 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 Ni�y50 BSE Healthcare Mid cap 100 Small Cap 100 Large Cap Healthcare SMID Healthcare • Since 2012, the BSE Healthcare Index has outperformed Nifty by ~11% • Large cap healthcare companies underperformed both Nifty50 (-47%) as well as BSE healthcare (-58% annualized) during the same period. • SMID Healthcare stocks led the pharma rally as they outperformed Nifty50 by 274% and BSE Healthcare by 263% during the same period.
  • 15. PMS Cyclicality Only In One Domain 15 *OCF CV -OPERATING CASH FLOW, COEFFICIENT OF VARIATION Source: Investing.com The above company is for illustration purposes only for explaining the above concept.The company mentioned above may or may not form part of the Investment Approach/Product. Past performance may or may not be sustained in the future and is no guarantee of future results.
  • 16. PMS 16 US: A Treadmill Segment Source: AIOCD 4.5 2.2 -0.8 3.5 5.4 4.8 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Mar'16 Mar'17 Mar'18 Mar'19 Mar'20 Mar'21 Domes�c Price Growth (%) Source: IQVIA US Generic Price Erosion (%) Annual Generic Sales Change (yoy) 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% -25% - - - - - - - - - - - Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jan-13 Apr-16 Jul-16 Jan-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jal-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21 -3%
  • 17. PMS 17 Next Downcycle a Decade A Way 20% 30% 45% 50% 55% 60% 6% 25% 3% 12% 21% 25% 10% 23% 15% 24% 30% 32% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 2010 2015 2021 2024 2030 2030-35 India US RoW / API Consolidated 17% 0% 25% 60% Many investors believe that healthcare is a cyclical play taking cues from the upcycle between 2009-2015 and the downcycle thereafter. We dig deeper and try to address the concern! What happened? We discern that downcycle post 2015 started when US business RoEs reached ~25% levels. This is when the industry attracted high level of competition. Consequently, RoEs started to plummet, with US RoEs dropping to ~3% levels in FY21. Thus, BSE Healthcare peak RoE of 23% in FY15 fell to 15% in FY21 How is it different this time? We notice that, while in 2015, RoEs of India business stood at ~30%, they were much better in FY21 (~45%) and we expect them to peak out at ~60% levels somewhere around FY30-35. We also expect US to improve from ~3% to ~25% by then How it matters? With increased RoEs from India business, the consolidated RoE uptick this time may be much more immune. Thus, when US RoEs reach ~25% in 2030-35, and start to see a downcycle, the subsequent RoE impact may be much lower. According to our estimates, even if US RoEs go to zero, the overall RoEs might still be ~17% (~15% in FY21). Even in a worst case scenario, RoEs should be better than what they are today! • • • •
  • 18. PMS 18 Pharma Outperformed During High Inflation Source: Bloomberg Past performance may or may not be sustained in the future and is no guarantee of future results. 15.3% 20.2% 22.0% 23.9% 26.9% 27.2% 27.3% 28.0% 33.7% 36.7% 39.1% 40.9% 41.2% 43.2% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% Pharma IT Media FMCG Realty PSU Bank Auto NIFTY Index PSE Infrastructure Energy Bank Financial Services Metal Avg. return (%) India equity market: Sector wise avg. returns when Infla�on >= 3% to < 5% -12.6% 1.4% 9.6% 13.5% 14.7% 14.9% 15.3% 16.0% 17.6% 18.1% 19.2% 23.0% 24.0% 27.5% -15.0% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% Realty PSU Bank FMCG Auto Media IT Financial Services NIFTY Index PSE Infrastructure Pharma Bank Energy Metal Avg. return (%) India equity market: Sector wise avg. returns when Infla�on >= 5% to < 7% -2.7% 0.8% 2.5% 6.7% 8.5% 12.2% 14.5% 18.6% 19.3% 20.7% 21.7% 21.8% 24.6% 28.4% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% Infrastructure Realty PSE Energy Media NIFTY Index PSU Bank Bank Financial Services Metal FMCG IT Pharma Auto Avg. return (%) India equity market: Sector wise avg. returns when Infla�on >= 7%
  • 19. PMS 19 Decision Making Process Buy Sizing Sell • "Great" business at fair price • "Good" businesses at discounted value vs intrinsic value • Avoid "Bad" businesses • Optimal diversification • Allocation base on conviction • When incremental Upside- Downside ratio is unfavorable • When the underlying business starts to deviate from the investment thesis
  • 20. A score of 3 is granted if the company fulfills the Great Business parameters listed in the last slide. A score of 2 is given if the company fulfills the Good Business parameters and -2 is for Bad Business Maximum score can be 30 ROIC : Return on Invested Capital; WACC Weighted Average Cost of Capital. The above examples are for illustration purpose only. The companies mentioned above may or may not form part of the Investment Approach/Fund/Scheme. PMS 20 Framework Examples Our Criteria TORRENT IPCA DIVIS AJANTA SYNGENE THYROCARE JB CHEM ALKEM INDOCO Quan�ta�ve RoIC v/s WACC ✓✓✓ ✓✓ ✓✓✓ ✓✓✓ ✓✓ ✓✓✓ ✓✓✓ ✓✓✓ ✓✓ Capital Structure ✓✓ ✓✓✓ ✓✓✓ ✓✓✓ ✓✓✓ ✓✓✓ ✓✓✓ ✓✓✓ ✓✓✓ Cash Flow Adequacy ✓✓✓ ✓✓✓ ✓✓ ✓✓ ✓✓✓ ✓✓✓ ✓✓ ✓✓ ✓✓✓ Covenants ✓✓✓ ✓✓ ✓✓✓ ✓✓✓ ✓✓✓ ✓✓✓ ✓✓✓ ✓✓✓ ✓✓ Growth ✓✓✓ ✓✓✓ ✓✓✓ ✓✓✓ ✓✓✓ ✓✓ ✓✓ ✓✓✓ ✓✓ Qualita�ve Compe��ve Advantage ✓✓✓ ✓✓✓ ✓✓✓ ✓✓✓ ✓✓✓ ✓✓ ✓✓ ✓✓ ✓✓✓ Pricing Power ✓✓✓ ✓✓✓ ✓✓✓ ✓✓ ✓✓ -✓✓ ✓✓ ✓✓ ✓✓ Character of Management ✓✓ ✓✓✓ ✓✓ ✓✓✓ ✓✓✓ ✓✓ ✓✓✓ ✓✓✓ ✓✓ Alignment of Interest with Minority ✓✓✓ ✓✓ ✓✓ ✓✓ ✓✓ ✓✓✓ ✓✓✓ ✓✓ ✓✓✓ Dependence of External Variables ✓✓ ✓✓ ✓✓ ✓✓ ✓✓ ✓✓ ✓✓ ✓✓ ✓✓ Score 27 26 26 26 26 21 25 25 24
  • 21. PMS 21 Portfolio Fundamentals Por�olio expected to see 11% revenue growth and EBITDA margin expansion of 180bps (FY22-24E) Por�olio earnings growth expected ~21% CAGR (FY22-24E) with improved ROCE (350 bps) and free cash flow Valua�on on forward basis at P/E 21.7x 2yr forward EBITDA : Earnings before Interest, Tax, Deprecia�on and Amor�za�on; RoCE : Return on Capital Employed; Disclaimer: Expected por�olio fundamentals; Source: Incred AMC research; Por�olio excluding Insurance companies FY21(Actual) FY22E FY23E FY24E Total Sales 31,119 34,869 38,301 43,248 Growth YoY (%) Growth YoY (%) Growth YoY (%) 12.1% 9.8% 12.9% EBITDA 6,374 6,515 6,912 8,860 2.2% 6.1% 28.2% EBITDA Margin (%) 20.5% 18.7% 18.0% 20.5% PAT 3,031 3,184 3,277 4,678 5.1% 2.9% 42.8% PAT Margin (%) 9.7% 9.1% 8.6% 10.8% RoCE 14.0% 13.3% 13.0% 16.8% Valuation Ratios P/B 4.4 4.1 3.8 3.3 EV/Sales 3.4 3.1 2.8 2.4 EV/EBITDA 16.5 16.4 15.3 11.5 P/E 33.5 31.9 31.0 21.7 OCF yield 5.2% 3.8% 5.0% 6.4% FCFF yield 3.6% 1.7% 2.0% 4.6%
  • 22. PMS 22 Disclaimer This presentation has been prepared by InCred Capital Wealth Portfolio Managers Private Limited (herein after referred to as InCred Capital PMS) solely for informational purposes and is not an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy the units or securities or services stated herein. InCred Capital PMS is registered with SEBI as Portfolio Manager. The information provided herein, including any third party information does not purport to be all inclusive or to contain all the material and relevant information that the recipient may require to make an appropriate decision. The information provided herein shall not be treated as advice pertaining to legal or taxation matters. The recipient (s) before acting on any information herein should make his/ her/ their own investigation and seek appropriate professional advice. We have exercised due diligence in checking the authenticity and correctness of the information contained herein but do not make any representation as to the accuracy or completeness of such information and should not be relied upon without proper due diligence by the recipient. Prospective investors are advised to carefully review the Disclosure Document, Client Agreement, and other related documents. InCred Capital PMS shall not in any way be responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in this publication. Some information contained herein may be forecasts and/or forward looking statements that are based on our current views and assumptions and involve known or unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results or events to vary materially from those expressed and implied in such statements. Past performance of InCred Capital PMS or its Group companies or any person connected with it does not indicate or guarantee its future performance and there is no assurance or guarantee that the objective of the investment approach/ product will be achieved. The value of the portfolio investments are subject to market risks and may be affected generally by factors affecting financial markets, such as price and volume, volatility in interest rates, currency exchange rates, changes in regulatory and administrative policies of the Government or any other appropriate authority (including tax laws) or other political and economic developments. No claims may be made or entertained for any variances between the performance depictions and individual portfolio performance. Investment decisions or recommendations made by InCred PMS may not always be profitable, as actual market movements maybe at a variance with anticipated trends. Neither InCred Capital PMS, its Directors, Employees or representatives shall be in any way liable for any variations noticed in the returns of individual portfolios. The information contained herein is subject to change without any prior notice. InCred Capital PMS reserves the right to modify any statements, information, estimates, etc as may be required from time to time. The recipient shall be solely responsible for any action undertaken using the information provided herein , including any written or oral communication transmitted to the recipient during this presentation. The contents are not reviewed by any regulatory authority including SEBI. InCred Capital Wealth Portfolio Managers Private Limited (formerly known as BSH Corporate Advisors and Consultant Private Limited) Registered Office: Unit No 1203, 12th Floor, B Wing, The Capital, C-70, B Block, BKC, Bandra (E), Mumbai – 400051 Phone: +91-22-6844 6100, Fax: +91-22-4161 1508, website: www.incredsecurities.com CIN: U740999MH2018PTC305048 | Portfolio Manager SEBI Regn: - INP000007128