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Location:
#BostonFintechWeek
Babson College
Boston Campus
Data Science for Finance Crash Course
Day 4
2018 Copyright QuantUniversity LLC.
Presented By:
Sri Krishnamurthy, CFA, CAP
Sri.krishnamurthy@qusandbox.com
www.analyticscertificate.com
2
Slides & Materials will be available at:
https://researchhub.qusandbox.com
MODULE 1:
• Data Science in Finance
Orientation on the Credit risk case study
Lab 1:
Exploring Data sets to make sense in Python
MODULE 2:
• Machine Learning in 30 minutes!
Lab 2:Credit risk case study
Building your first model
Agenda
MODULE 3:
• Evaluating machine learning models: The metrics
Lab 3:Credit risk case study
Understanding and tuning your model
MODULE 4:
• Deployment of machine learning models and Prediction through AP
Lab 4:Credit risk case study
Deploying your model and predicting interest rates
Agenda
5
Data pre-
processing &
EDA
Building a
Machine
Learning model
Evaluating
different
models and
model selection
Deploying your
model in
production
Recap
Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4
6
7
Claim:
• Machine learning is better for fraud
detection, looking for arbitrage
opportunities and trade execution
Caution:
• Beware of imbalanced class problems
• A model that gives 99% accuracy may still
not be good enough
1. Machine learning is not a generic solution to all problems
8
Claim:
• Our models work on
datasets we have tested on
Caution:
• Do we have enough data?
• How do we handle bias in
datasets?
• Beware of overfitting
• Historical Analysis is not
Prediction
2. A prototype model is not your production model
9
AI and Machine Learning in Production
https://www.itnews.com.au/news/hsbc-societe-generale-run-
into-ais-production-problems-477966
Kristy Roth from HSBC:
“It’s been somewhat easy - in a funny way - to
get going using sample data, [but] then you hit
the real problems,” Roth said.
“I think our early track record on PoCs or pilots
hides a little bit the underlying issues.
Matt Davey from Societe Generale:
“We’ve done quite a bit of work with RPA
recently and I have to say we’ve been a bit
disillusioned with that experience,”
“the PoC is the easy bit: it’s how you get that
into production and shift the balance”
10
Claim:
• It works. We don’t know how!
Caution:
• It’s still not a proven science
• Interpretability or “auditability” of
models is important
• Transparency in codebase is paramount
with the proliferation of opensource
tools
• Skilled data scientists who are
knowledgeable about algorithms and
their appropriate usage are key to
successful adoption
3. We are just getting started!
11
Claim:
• Machine Learning models are
more accurate than
traditional models
Caution:
• Is accuracy the right metric?
• How do we evaluate the
model? RMS or R2
• How does the model behave
in different regimes?
4. Choose the right metrics for evaluation
12
Claim:
• Machine Learning and AI will replace
humans in most applications
Caution:
• Beware of the hype!
• Just because it worked some times
doesn’t mean that the organization can
be on autopilot
• Will we have true AI or Augmented
Intelligence?
• Model risk and robust risk
management is paramount to the
success of the organization.
• We are just getting started!
5. Are we there yet?
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-10-20/automation-
starts-to-sweep-wall-street-with-tons-of-glitches
13
The Process
Data
cleansing
Feature
Engineering
Training and
Testing
Model
building
Model
selection
Model
Deployment
14
Building a model vs Deploying a model
QuSandbox- The platform for adopting Data
Science and AI in the Enterprise
2018 Copyright QuantUniversity LLC.
16
• QuSandbox, is an end-to-end workflow based system to enable
creation and deployment of data science workflows within the
enterprise for primarily ML and AI applications.
• Our environment supports AWS and Google Cloud platform and
incorporates model and data provenance throughout the life cycle
of model development.
• The solution can also be hosted on-prem to leverage custom
hardware and software integrations.
Executive Summary
17
The reproducibility challenge
18
What’s needed for reproducibility
Code Data
Environment Process
19
Prototype
Standardize
workflow
Productionize
and share
Model Management with QuSandbox
20
QuSandbox solution suite for ML/AI applications
Model
Analytics
Studio
QuSandbox
Research
hub
21
Quant/Enterprise use cases
• Create an environment that can support multiple platforms and
programming languages
• Enable remote running of applications
• Ability to try out a Github submission/ someone else’s code
• Facilitate creation of Docker images to create replicable containers
• Create prototyping environments for Data Science/Quant teams
• Enable Data scientists/Quants to deploy their solutions
• Enable running multiple tasks and jobs
• Enable concurrent running of multiple experiments
• Integrate seamlessly with the cloud to scale up computations
Use cases
22
Fintech use cases
• To demonstrate solutions to enterprises
• Create customized enterprise trials for companies that don’t permit
installation of vendor software prior to procurement
• To manage quick updates
• Enable effective integration and hosting of services (REST APIs)
• To deploy custom services on QuSandbox
Use cases
23
Academic use cases
• Enable creation of course material and exercises that could be
shared
• Enable students and workshop participants to focus on the data
science experiments rather than environment setting
Use cases
24
ResearchHub
25
Research hub - Process
26
ResearchHub – CLI
27
QuSandbox - Experiment
28
Model Management Studio
29
JDF- DSL
30
QuSandbox
31
QuSandbox – Explore
32
Creating replicable environments
Creating and manage replicable environments (Code + software + data) in a single portal
33
Creating replicable environments
Create replicable environments (Code + software + data) through a easy point & click tool and
publish to Dockerhub or manage internally
Share it with target users
34
User portal
• Run multiple experiments in pre-created environments (Code + software + data)
• Deploy your own solutions
• Run any Docker image or Github submission on the cloud
35
Run Jupyter notebooks and prototype applications
36
Run Rstudio and Shiny applications
37
Run any Docker application
38
Manage tasks and errors
39
User portal
• Dockerize and deploy applications on AWS in just a few steps
40
Deploy applications with ease
41
Data pre-
processing &
EDA
Building a
Machine
Learning model
Evaluating
different
models and
model selection
Deploying your
model in
production
Recap
Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4
42
• Fill out the assessments for the certificate. Deadline is 9/15/2018
Next Steps
43
www.analyticscertificate.com/MachineLearning
Upcoming course
44
www.QuSandbox.com
45
About us:
• Data Science, Quant Finance and
Machine Learning Startup
• Technologies using MATLAB, Python
and R
• Programs
▫ Analytics Certificate Program
▫ Fintech programs
• Platform
Thank you for attending Day 3!
Sri Krishnamurthy, CFA, CAP
Founder and CEO
QuantUniversity LLC.
srikrishnamurthy
www.QuantUniversity.com
Information, data and drawings embodied in this presentation are strictly a property of QuantUniversity LLC. and shall not be
distributed or used in any other publication without the prior written consent of QuantUniversity LLC.
46

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Ds for finance day 4

  • 1. Location: #BostonFintechWeek Babson College Boston Campus Data Science for Finance Crash Course Day 4 2018 Copyright QuantUniversity LLC. Presented By: Sri Krishnamurthy, CFA, CAP Sri.krishnamurthy@qusandbox.com www.analyticscertificate.com
  • 2. 2 Slides & Materials will be available at: https://researchhub.qusandbox.com
  • 3. MODULE 1: • Data Science in Finance Orientation on the Credit risk case study Lab 1: Exploring Data sets to make sense in Python MODULE 2: • Machine Learning in 30 minutes! Lab 2:Credit risk case study Building your first model Agenda
  • 4. MODULE 3: • Evaluating machine learning models: The metrics Lab 3:Credit risk case study Understanding and tuning your model MODULE 4: • Deployment of machine learning models and Prediction through AP Lab 4:Credit risk case study Deploying your model and predicting interest rates Agenda
  • 5. 5 Data pre- processing & EDA Building a Machine Learning model Evaluating different models and model selection Deploying your model in production Recap Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4
  • 6. 6
  • 7. 7 Claim: • Machine learning is better for fraud detection, looking for arbitrage opportunities and trade execution Caution: • Beware of imbalanced class problems • A model that gives 99% accuracy may still not be good enough 1. Machine learning is not a generic solution to all problems
  • 8. 8 Claim: • Our models work on datasets we have tested on Caution: • Do we have enough data? • How do we handle bias in datasets? • Beware of overfitting • Historical Analysis is not Prediction 2. A prototype model is not your production model
  • 9. 9 AI and Machine Learning in Production https://www.itnews.com.au/news/hsbc-societe-generale-run- into-ais-production-problems-477966 Kristy Roth from HSBC: “It’s been somewhat easy - in a funny way - to get going using sample data, [but] then you hit the real problems,” Roth said. “I think our early track record on PoCs or pilots hides a little bit the underlying issues. Matt Davey from Societe Generale: “We’ve done quite a bit of work with RPA recently and I have to say we’ve been a bit disillusioned with that experience,” “the PoC is the easy bit: it’s how you get that into production and shift the balance”
  • 10. 10 Claim: • It works. We don’t know how! Caution: • It’s still not a proven science • Interpretability or “auditability” of models is important • Transparency in codebase is paramount with the proliferation of opensource tools • Skilled data scientists who are knowledgeable about algorithms and their appropriate usage are key to successful adoption 3. We are just getting started!
  • 11. 11 Claim: • Machine Learning models are more accurate than traditional models Caution: • Is accuracy the right metric? • How do we evaluate the model? RMS or R2 • How does the model behave in different regimes? 4. Choose the right metrics for evaluation
  • 12. 12 Claim: • Machine Learning and AI will replace humans in most applications Caution: • Beware of the hype! • Just because it worked some times doesn’t mean that the organization can be on autopilot • Will we have true AI or Augmented Intelligence? • Model risk and robust risk management is paramount to the success of the organization. • We are just getting started! 5. Are we there yet? https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-10-20/automation- starts-to-sweep-wall-street-with-tons-of-glitches
  • 14. 14 Building a model vs Deploying a model
  • 15. QuSandbox- The platform for adopting Data Science and AI in the Enterprise 2018 Copyright QuantUniversity LLC.
  • 16. 16 • QuSandbox, is an end-to-end workflow based system to enable creation and deployment of data science workflows within the enterprise for primarily ML and AI applications. • Our environment supports AWS and Google Cloud platform and incorporates model and data provenance throughout the life cycle of model development. • The solution can also be hosted on-prem to leverage custom hardware and software integrations. Executive Summary
  • 18. 18 What’s needed for reproducibility Code Data Environment Process
  • 20. 20 QuSandbox solution suite for ML/AI applications Model Analytics Studio QuSandbox Research hub
  • 21. 21 Quant/Enterprise use cases • Create an environment that can support multiple platforms and programming languages • Enable remote running of applications • Ability to try out a Github submission/ someone else’s code • Facilitate creation of Docker images to create replicable containers • Create prototyping environments for Data Science/Quant teams • Enable Data scientists/Quants to deploy their solutions • Enable running multiple tasks and jobs • Enable concurrent running of multiple experiments • Integrate seamlessly with the cloud to scale up computations Use cases
  • 22. 22 Fintech use cases • To demonstrate solutions to enterprises • Create customized enterprise trials for companies that don’t permit installation of vendor software prior to procurement • To manage quick updates • Enable effective integration and hosting of services (REST APIs) • To deploy custom services on QuSandbox Use cases
  • 23. 23 Academic use cases • Enable creation of course material and exercises that could be shared • Enable students and workshop participants to focus on the data science experiments rather than environment setting Use cases
  • 25. 25 Research hub - Process
  • 32. 32 Creating replicable environments Creating and manage replicable environments (Code + software + data) in a single portal
  • 33. 33 Creating replicable environments Create replicable environments (Code + software + data) through a easy point & click tool and publish to Dockerhub or manage internally Share it with target users
  • 34. 34 User portal • Run multiple experiments in pre-created environments (Code + software + data) • Deploy your own solutions • Run any Docker image or Github submission on the cloud
  • 35. 35 Run Jupyter notebooks and prototype applications
  • 36. 36 Run Rstudio and Shiny applications
  • 37. 37 Run any Docker application
  • 39. 39 User portal • Dockerize and deploy applications on AWS in just a few steps
  • 41. 41 Data pre- processing & EDA Building a Machine Learning model Evaluating different models and model selection Deploying your model in production Recap Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4
  • 42. 42 • Fill out the assessments for the certificate. Deadline is 9/15/2018 Next Steps
  • 45. 45 About us: • Data Science, Quant Finance and Machine Learning Startup • Technologies using MATLAB, Python and R • Programs ▫ Analytics Certificate Program ▫ Fintech programs • Platform
  • 46. Thank you for attending Day 3! Sri Krishnamurthy, CFA, CAP Founder and CEO QuantUniversity LLC. srikrishnamurthy www.QuantUniversity.com Information, data and drawings embodied in this presentation are strictly a property of QuantUniversity LLC. and shall not be distributed or used in any other publication without the prior written consent of QuantUniversity LLC. 46