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North Carolina Industry Structure
2012
Natural Resources & Mining

U.S.

0.6
0.1

North Carolina
4.2
4.3

Construction

8.9

Manufacturing

11.0
19.1
18.7

Trade, Transportation & Utilities
2.0
1.7

Information

5.8

Financial Activities

5.1

13.4
13.4

Professional & Business Services

15.2

Education & Health Services

13.8

Leisure & Hospitality
4.1
3.6

Other Services

10.3
10.4

16.4

Government

17.9

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0
8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0
Employment Share (Percent)

16.0

18.0

20.0

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics

6
North Carolina Industry Growth
Percent Change in Employment from a Year Ago, NSA

August 2013

U.S.
1.7
1.7

Total
Natural Resources & Mining
Construction

3.0
-1.8
2.8
-2.0
0.1

Manufacturing

0.8
2.0
2.4

Trade, Transportation & Utilities
-0.3

Information

6.9
1.4

Financial Activities

3.4
3.4
3.8

Professional & Business Services
1.9

Education & Health Services

1.4
3.0

Leisure & Hospitality

4.4
0.8

Other Services
Government

-4.0

North Carolina

-0.6
-0.4
-1.2

-2.0

0.0

2.0
Percent

4.0

6.0

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics

8.0

13
North Carolina Payroll Employment
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0

YoY % Chg

1.0
0.0
-1.0
-2.0
-3.0
U.S.
-4.0
-5.0
-6.0
-7.0
2003

North Carolina

August 2013
US: 1.6%
NC: 1.7%

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics

20
North Carolina Unemployment Rate
12.0
11.0
10.0

U.S.
North Carolina

9.0
8.0

Percent

7.0
6.0
5.0
August 2013
US: 7.3%
NC: 8.7%

4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics

27
North Carolina Initial Unemployment Claims
150,000

130,000

110,000

90,000

70,000

50,000

30,000
2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics

34
North Carolina Real Personal Income
6.0

U.S.

5.0

North Carolina

4.0
3.0

YoY % Chg

2.0
1.0
0.0
2Q: 2013
US: 1.6%
NC: 0.9%

-1.0
-2.0
-3.0
-4.0
2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis/Haver Analytics

48
North Carolina Wages and Salaries
10.0

U.S.
North Carolina

8.0
6.0

YoY % Chg

4.0
2.0
0.0
2Q: 2013
US: 3.2%
NC: 3.8%

-2.0
-4.0
-6.0
2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis/Haver Analytics

55
North Carolina Building Permits
Single-Family Homes
60.0
U.S.
North Carolina

YoY % Chg
3-month moving average

40.0

20.0

0.0

-20.0
August 2013
US: 20.3%
NC: 18.1%

-40.0

-60.0
2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Source: US Census Bureau/Haver Analytics
62
North Carolina House Price Index—FHFA
15.0
12.0

2Q: 2013
US: 4.0%
NC: 1.7%

9.0

YoY % Chg

6.0
3.0
0.0
U.S.

-3.0

North Carolina
-6.0
-9.0
2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency/Haver Analytics
69
North Carolina Housing Starts
140

2500

120
2000

1500

80
60

1000

SAAR, thousands

SAAR, thousands

100

40
500
20
0
2003

2004

2005 2006 2007 2008
North Carolina (Left Axis)

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
United States (Right Axis)

0
2014

Source: Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ/Haver Analytics
75
North Carolina Mortgage Delinquency Rate
90+ days delinquent
14.0

12.0

2Q 2013
Subprime: 8.8%
Total: 2.5%
Prime: 1.1%

Percent

10.0
Subprime Mortgages

8.0

Total Mortgages
Prime Mortgages

6.0

4.0

2.0

0.0
2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Source: Mortgage Bankers Association/Haver Analytics
82
North Carolina Foreclosure Inventory Rate
12.0

10.0

2Q 2013
Subprime: 7.5%
Total: 2.1%
Prime: 1.2%

Percent

8.0

Subprime Mortgages
Total Mortgages
Prime Mortgages

6.0

4.0

2.0

0.0
2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Source: Mortgage Bankers Association/Haver Analytics
89
North Carolina Foreclosure Starts Rate
4.0
3.5

Subprime Mortgages
Total Mortgages
Prime Mortgages

3.0
2Q 2013
Subprime: 1.9%
Total: 0.5%
Prime: 0.3%

Percent

2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Source: Mortgage Bankers Association/Haver Analytics
96

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North Carolina Economic Indicators, October 2013 (From Richmond Fed Analysis)

  • 1. North Carolina Industry Structure 2012 Natural Resources & Mining U.S. 0.6 0.1 North Carolina 4.2 4.3 Construction 8.9 Manufacturing 11.0 19.1 18.7 Trade, Transportation & Utilities 2.0 1.7 Information 5.8 Financial Activities 5.1 13.4 13.4 Professional & Business Services 15.2 Education & Health Services 13.8 Leisure & Hospitality 4.1 3.6 Other Services 10.3 10.4 16.4 Government 17.9 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 Employment Share (Percent) 16.0 18.0 20.0 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics 6
  • 2. North Carolina Industry Growth Percent Change in Employment from a Year Ago, NSA August 2013 U.S. 1.7 1.7 Total Natural Resources & Mining Construction 3.0 -1.8 2.8 -2.0 0.1 Manufacturing 0.8 2.0 2.4 Trade, Transportation & Utilities -0.3 Information 6.9 1.4 Financial Activities 3.4 3.4 3.8 Professional & Business Services 1.9 Education & Health Services 1.4 3.0 Leisure & Hospitality 4.4 0.8 Other Services Government -4.0 North Carolina -0.6 -0.4 -1.2 -2.0 0.0 2.0 Percent 4.0 6.0 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics 8.0 13
  • 3. North Carolina Payroll Employment 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 YoY % Chg 1.0 0.0 -1.0 -2.0 -3.0 U.S. -4.0 -5.0 -6.0 -7.0 2003 North Carolina August 2013 US: 1.6% NC: 1.7% 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics 20
  • 4. North Carolina Unemployment Rate 12.0 11.0 10.0 U.S. North Carolina 9.0 8.0 Percent 7.0 6.0 5.0 August 2013 US: 7.3% NC: 8.7% 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics 27
  • 5. North Carolina Initial Unemployment Claims 150,000 130,000 110,000 90,000 70,000 50,000 30,000 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics 34
  • 6. North Carolina Real Personal Income 6.0 U.S. 5.0 North Carolina 4.0 3.0 YoY % Chg 2.0 1.0 0.0 2Q: 2013 US: 1.6% NC: 0.9% -1.0 -2.0 -3.0 -4.0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis/Haver Analytics 48
  • 7. North Carolina Wages and Salaries 10.0 U.S. North Carolina 8.0 6.0 YoY % Chg 4.0 2.0 0.0 2Q: 2013 US: 3.2% NC: 3.8% -2.0 -4.0 -6.0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis/Haver Analytics 55
  • 8. North Carolina Building Permits Single-Family Homes 60.0 U.S. North Carolina YoY % Chg 3-month moving average 40.0 20.0 0.0 -20.0 August 2013 US: 20.3% NC: 18.1% -40.0 -60.0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: US Census Bureau/Haver Analytics 62
  • 9. North Carolina House Price Index—FHFA 15.0 12.0 2Q: 2013 US: 4.0% NC: 1.7% 9.0 YoY % Chg 6.0 3.0 0.0 U.S. -3.0 North Carolina -6.0 -9.0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency/Haver Analytics 69
  • 10. North Carolina Housing Starts 140 2500 120 2000 1500 80 60 1000 SAAR, thousands SAAR, thousands 100 40 500 20 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 North Carolina (Left Axis) 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 United States (Right Axis) 0 2014 Source: Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ/Haver Analytics 75
  • 11. North Carolina Mortgage Delinquency Rate 90+ days delinquent 14.0 12.0 2Q 2013 Subprime: 8.8% Total: 2.5% Prime: 1.1% Percent 10.0 Subprime Mortgages 8.0 Total Mortgages Prime Mortgages 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: Mortgage Bankers Association/Haver Analytics 82
  • 12. North Carolina Foreclosure Inventory Rate 12.0 10.0 2Q 2013 Subprime: 7.5% Total: 2.1% Prime: 1.2% Percent 8.0 Subprime Mortgages Total Mortgages Prime Mortgages 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: Mortgage Bankers Association/Haver Analytics 89
  • 13. North Carolina Foreclosure Starts Rate 4.0 3.5 Subprime Mortgages Total Mortgages Prime Mortgages 3.0 2Q 2013 Subprime: 1.9% Total: 0.5% Prime: 0.3% Percent 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: Mortgage Bankers Association/Haver Analytics 96