2. Economics 22
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
U.S. Real GDP
Bars = CAGR Line = Yr/Yr Percent Change
GDP - CAGR: Q1 @ -2.9%
GDP - Yr/Yr Percent Change: Q1 @ 1.5%
Forecast
Gross Domestic Product
Real GDP declined in the first
quarter but those contractionary
forces should prove to be
temporary
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
4. Economics 4
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Real Government Purchases
Bars = CAGR Line = Yr/Yr Percent Change
Government Purchases-CAGR: Q1 @ -0.8%
Government Purchases-Yr/Yr: Q1 @ -1.5%
Forecast
Government Purchases
The public sector has remained a
weight on the overall economy
but should soon move back into
being a minor contributor to
overall growth
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
6. Economics 6
14%
16%
18%
20%
22%
24%
26%
14%
16%
18%
20%
22%
24%
26%
2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023
U.S. Budget Gap
CBO Baseline Scenario Projections, Percent of GDP
Outlays: 2024 @ 22.1%
Revenues: 2024 @ 18.3%
U.S. Budget Gap
The larger problem is that there
is still no credible plan to move
back into a surplus
Source: Congressional Budget Office and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
8. Economics 8
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Real Business Fixed Investment
Bars = CAGR Line = Yr/Yr Percent Change
Non-Res Fixed Invest - CAGR: Q1 @ -1.2%
Non-Res Fixed Invest - Yr/Yr Percent Change: Q1 @ 3.5%
Forecast
Business Investment
Business investment also
declined slightly in the
beginning of the year, but all
signs point to a moderate pick
up in investment moving
forward
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
9. Economics 9
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
5.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
5.5%
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14
U.S. Nonfin. Corporate Cash Holdings
Total Assets Market Value, U.S. Nonfinancial Corporations
Cash Ratio: Q1 @ 4.3%
4-Q Moving Average: Q1 @ 4.4%
Corporate Cash
The financial health of the
corporate sector is very strong
and should allow corporations to
spend more going forward
Source: Federal Reserve Board and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
10. Economics 10
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14
Small Business Important Problems
Single Most Important Problem Facing Firms, SA 3-MMA
Regulations: Jun @ 20.0%
Taxes: Jun @ 23.0%
Poor Sales: Jun @ 13.3%
Interest Rates: Jun @ 2.3%
Small Businesses
Problems have shifted from fears
about sales to concerns about
taxes and regulation
Source: National Federation of Independent Business and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
14. Economics 14
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14
Unemployment Rates
Seasonally Adjusted
U-6 Unemployment Rate: Jun @ 12.1%
U-3 Unemployment Rate: Jun @ 6.1%
Unemployment
…but the unemployment rate
overstates the health of the labor
market. Discouraged workers
and an abundance of part-time
work rein in spending
Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
15. Economics 15
1%
2%
3%
4%
1%
2%
3%
4%
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Employment Cost Index
Year-over-Year Percent Change
Wages and Salaries: Q1 @ 1.6%
Total Compensation: Q1 @ 1.8%
Wages and Salaries
In addition, wage growth has
been relatively slow to pick up,
while inflation begins to pull
away
Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
16. Economics 1616
-15%
-12%
-9%
-6%
-3%
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
-15%
-12%
-9%
-6%
-3%
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Real Disposable Personal Income
Bars = CAGR Line = Yr/Yr Percent Change
Real Disp. Personal Inc. - CAGR: Q1 @ 1.5%
Real Disp. Personal Inc. - Yr/Yr Percent Change: Q1 @ 2.3%
Forecast
Income
Disposable income growth is
also likely to remain relatively
subdued in the near term.
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
17. Economics 17
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
110%
120%
130%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
110%
120%
130%
60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10
Household Debt - Consumer & Mortgage
As a Percent of Disposable Personal Income
Household Debt: Q1 @ 97.9%
Consumer Balance Sheet
Although consumer leverage
remains elevated, it is off its
prerecession high
Source: Federal Reserve Board, U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
23. Economics 23
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Existing Home Resales
Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate - In Millions
Existing Home Sales: May @ 4.9 Million
Housing Market: Existing Home Sales
Existing home sales have
struggled with higher mortgage
rates, weaker investor demand
and a particularly severe winter.
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
24. Economics 24
100
300
500
700
900
1,100
1,300
1,500
100
300
500
700
900
1,100
1,300
1,500
89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13
New Home Sales
Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate, In Thousands
New Home Sales: May @ 504,000
3-Month Moving Average: May @ 446,333
Housing Market: New Home Sales
New home sales have continued
to improve, though still remain
at very low levels
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
25. Economics 25
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Confidence: Plans to Buy a Home
Percent of Consumers, Conference Board
Plans to Buy a Home Within Six Months: Jun @ 5.4%
12-Month Moving Average: Jun @ 5.7%
Home Purchase Expectations
Weak home sales have suffered
from a lack of traditional
homebuyer demand while
investors have dropped out
simultaneously
Source: The Conference Board and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
26. Economics 26
-32%
-24%
-16%
-8%
0%
8%
16%
24%
-32%
-24%
-16%
-8%
0%
8%
16%
24%
96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14
Home Prices
Year-over-Year Percentage Change
Median Sale Price: May @ $213,600
Median Sales Price 3-M Mov. Avg.: May @ 5.3%
FHFA (OFHEO) Purchase Only Index: May @ 5.6%
S&P Case-Shiller Composite 10: Apr @ 10.8%
Home Prices
Home prices continue their
upward trajectory, though gains
have moderated considerably
Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency, National Association of Realtors, S&P Corp. and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
27. Economics 27
0.0
0.3
0.6
0.9
1.2
1.5
1.8
2.1
2.4
0.0
0.3
0.6
0.9
1.2
1.5
1.8
2.1
2.4
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18
Thousands
Housing Starts
Millions of Units
Multifamily Starts
Multifamily Forecast
Single-family Starts
Single-family Forecast
Forecast
Housing Market: Residential Construction
We expect residential
construction to continue to
advance, though a full recovery
in the housing market is a long
way off
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
29. Economics 29
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
North Carolina Gross State Product & U.S. GDP
Year-over-Year Percent Change
U.S. GDP: 2013 @ 1.8%
North Carolina GDP: 2013 @ 2.3%
North Carolina: GDP
In 2013, GDP growth in North
Carolina outpaced that of the
nation
Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
31. Economics 31
North Carolina: Labor Market
A large drop in labor force participation has added to the downward momentum of the
unemployment rate
60%
61%
62%
63%
64%
65%
66%
67%
68%
69%
70%
60%
61%
62%
63%
64%
65%
66%
67%
68%
69%
70%
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14
Labor Force Participation Rate
3-Month Moving Averages, Seasonally Adjusted
North Carolina: May @ 61.1%
United States: Jun @ 62.8%
Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
UnemploymentLabor Force Participation
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14
North Carolina vs. U.S. Unemployment Rate
Seasonally Adjusted
Unemployment Rate: May @ 6.4%
United States: Jun @ 6.1%
32. Economics 3232
May 2014
-2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6%
Information
Other Services
Construction
Financial Activities
Leisure and Hospitality
Manufacturing
Prof. & Bus. Svcs.
Educ. & Health Services
Government
Trade, Trans. & Utilities
Total Nonfarm
North Carolina Employment Growth By Industry
Year-over-Year Percent Change, 3-MMA
Number of
Employees
Less
More
North Carolina: Employment
Employment growth has been
relatively broad based, with
strong gains in administrative
and business support industries
Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
33. Economics 3333
98
100
102
104
106
108
110
112
114
98
100
102
104
106
108
110
112
114
10 11 12 13 14
Nonfarm Payrolls
Index 100 = February 2010
Charlotte: May @ 111.6
Raleigh: May @ 113.2
Durham: May @ 107.7
Greensboro: May @ 104.8
Winston-Salem: May @ 105.5
Asheville: May @ 107.3
Wilmington: May @ 106.8
Hickory: May @ 102.9
Fayetteville: May @ 100.4
North Carolina: Employment
Raleigh and Charlotte have had
the strongest recoveries in terms
of employment, while
Fayetteville and Hickory
struggle to return to growth
Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
34. Economics 34
North Carolina Unemployment by County
North Carolina Unemployment Rate
May 2014
Less than 6.0%
6.0% to 6.9%
7.0% to 7.9%
8.0% and greater
35. Economics 3535
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13
North Carolina Nonfarm Employment
Year-over-Year Percent Change
Office Employment: May @ 3.8%
Non-office Employment: May @ 1.4%
North Carolina: Employment
Meanwhile, economies that rely
on office-using industries have
performed considerably better
Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
36. Economics 36
North Carolina: Employment
Manufacturing has been declining for years, contributing to the relatively weak economies in
some parts of the state
-16%
-14%
-12%
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
-16%
-14%
-12%
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13
North Carolina Nonfarm Employment
Year-over-Year Percent Change
Manufacturing Employment: May @ -0.1%
Non-Manufacturing: May @ 2.2%
Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Manufacturing Total EmploymentManufacturing Growth
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14
North Carolina Manufacturing Employment
In thousands
Manufacturing Employment: May @ 442.0 thousand
37. Economics 3737
-4% 0% 4% 8% 12%
Winston-Salem
Greensboro
Asheville
Raleigh
Durham
North Carolina
Charlotte
Wilmington
Construction & Natural Resources Employment
Year-over-Year Percent Change, 3-MMA
May 2013
North Carolina: Construction
Despite strong gains in a few
areas, construction payrolls in
the state are still more than 30
percent from their prerecession
high, pushing workers to look
for jobs in other industries or
remain unemployed
Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
38. Economics 3838
-12%
-9%
-6%
-3%
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
15%
-12%
-9%
-6%
-3%
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
15%
96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
North Carolina Personal Income
Bars = Compound Annual Rate Line = Yr/Yr % Change
North Carolina Personal Income: Q1 @ 2.7%
North Carolina Personal Income: Q1 @ 3.1%
North Carolina: Income
Income growth has held steady
in the state but remains below
the gains seen in prior
expansions
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
39. Economics 3939
-15%
0%
15%
30%
45%
-15%
0%
15%
30%
45%
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13
North Carolina Sales Tax Revenue
Year-over-Year Percent Change
North Carolina: Q4 @ 3.6%
North Carolina: Sales Tax
Nevertheless, sales tax revenue
is growing again, indicating that
consumers in the state are
feeling more confident
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
40. Economics 4040
North Carolina: Housing
The pace of residential construction has slowed, though home price continue to gain
momentum
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14
Thousands
Thousands
North Carolina Housing Permits
Thousands of Permits, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate
Single-Family: May @ 39,264
Single-Family, 12-MMA: May @ 34,242
Multifamily, 12-MMA: May @ 14,072
Single-Family Average (1998-2003): 62,968
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, CoreLogic and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Home PricesResidential Construction
-20%
-16%
-12%
-8%
-4%
0%
4%
8%
12%
16%
20%
-20%
-16%
-12%
-8%
-4%
0%
4%
8%
12%
16%
20%
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14
Core Logic HPI: NC vs. U.S.
Year-over-Year Percent Change
United States: May @ 8.8%
North Carolina: May @ 5.2%
41. Economics 4141
0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5%
Greensboro
Winston-Salem
North Carolina
Asheville
Durham
Charlotte
Raleigh
Wilmington
North Carolina Population
Year-over-Year Percent Change
2013
North Carolina: Demographics
Areas with the highest
population growth rates are also
likely to see some of the
strongest economic growth rates
moving forward
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC