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Economic Outlook
Michael Wolf, Economist
July 18, 2014
Economics 22
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
U.S. Real GDP
Bars = CAGR Line = Yr/Yr Percent Change
GDP - CAGR: Q1 @ -2.9%
GDP - Yr/Yr Percent Change: Q1 @ 1.5%
Forecast
Gross Domestic Product
Real GDP declined in the first
quarter but those contractionary
forces should prove to be
temporary
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Government
Economics 4
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Real Government Purchases
Bars = CAGR Line = Yr/Yr Percent Change
Government Purchases-CAGR: Q1 @ -0.8%
Government Purchases-Yr/Yr: Q1 @ -1.5%
Forecast
Government Purchases
The public sector has remained a
weight on the overall economy
but should soon move back into
being a minor contributor to
overall growth
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economics 5
-$1,600
-$1,400
-$1,200
-$1,000
-$800
-$600
-$400
-$200
$0
$200
$400
-$1,600
-$1,400
-$1,200
-$1,000
-$800
-$600
-$400
-$200
$0
$200
$400
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Federal Budget Surplus or Deficit
12-Month Moving Sum in Billions of Dollars
Surplus or Deficit: May @ -$490 Billion
U.S. Budget Deficit
Deficit is shrinking, but not
nearly fast enough
Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economics 6
14%
16%
18%
20%
22%
24%
26%
14%
16%
18%
20%
22%
24%
26%
2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023
U.S. Budget Gap
CBO Baseline Scenario Projections, Percent of GDP
Outlays: 2024 @ 22.1%
Revenues: 2024 @ 18.3%
U.S. Budget Gap
The larger problem is that there
is still no credible plan to move
back into a surplus
Source: Congressional Budget Office and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Business Investment
Economics 8
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Real Business Fixed Investment
Bars = CAGR Line = Yr/Yr Percent Change
Non-Res Fixed Invest - CAGR: Q1 @ -1.2%
Non-Res Fixed Invest - Yr/Yr Percent Change: Q1 @ 3.5%
Forecast
Business Investment
Business investment also
declined slightly in the
beginning of the year, but all
signs point to a moderate pick
up in investment moving
forward
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economics 9
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
5.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
5.5%
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14
U.S. Nonfin. Corporate Cash Holdings
Total Assets Market Value, U.S. Nonfinancial Corporations
Cash Ratio: Q1 @ 4.3%
4-Q Moving Average: Q1 @ 4.4%
Corporate Cash
The financial health of the
corporate sector is very strong
and should allow corporations to
spend more going forward
Source: Federal Reserve Board and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economics 10
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14
Small Business Important Problems
Single Most Important Problem Facing Firms, SA 3-MMA
Regulations: Jun @ 20.0%
Taxes: Jun @ 23.0%
Poor Sales: Jun @ 13.3%
Interest Rates: Jun @ 2.3%
Small Businesses
Problems have shifted from fears
about sales to concerns about
taxes and regulation
Source: National Federation of Independent Business and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Consumption
Economics 1212
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Real Personal Consumption Expenditures
Bars = CAGR Line = Yr/Yr Percent Change
PCE - CAGR: Q1 @ 1.0%
PCE - Yr/Yr Percent Change: Q1 @ 2.0%
Forecast
Personal Consumption Expenditures
Consumption should rebound
during the forecast period but
growth is likely to remain
somewhat subdued
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economics 13
-1,000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
-1,000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Nonfarm Employment Change
Change in Employment, In Thousands
Monthly Change: Jun @ 288K
Employment
Total employment finally
breached its prerecession peak…
Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economics 14
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14
Unemployment Rates
Seasonally Adjusted
U-6 Unemployment Rate: Jun @ 12.1%
U-3 Unemployment Rate: Jun @ 6.1%
Unemployment
…but the unemployment rate
overstates the health of the labor
market. Discouraged workers
and an abundance of part-time
work rein in spending
Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economics 15
1%
2%
3%
4%
1%
2%
3%
4%
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Employment Cost Index
Year-over-Year Percent Change
Wages and Salaries: Q1 @ 1.6%
Total Compensation: Q1 @ 1.8%
Wages and Salaries
In addition, wage growth has
been relatively slow to pick up,
while inflation begins to pull
away
Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economics 1616
-15%
-12%
-9%
-6%
-3%
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
-15%
-12%
-9%
-6%
-3%
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Real Disposable Personal Income
Bars = CAGR Line = Yr/Yr Percent Change
Real Disp. Personal Inc. - CAGR: Q1 @ 1.5%
Real Disp. Personal Inc. - Yr/Yr Percent Change: Q1 @ 2.3%
Forecast
Income
Disposable income growth is
also likely to remain relatively
subdued in the near term.
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economics 17
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
110%
120%
130%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
110%
120%
130%
60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10
Household Debt - Consumer & Mortgage
As a Percent of Disposable Personal Income
Household Debt: Q1 @ 97.9%
Consumer Balance Sheet
Although consumer leverage
remains elevated, it is off its
prerecession high
Source: Federal Reserve Board, U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economics 18
9.5%
10.0%
10.5%
11.0%
11.5%
12.0%
12.5%
13.0%
13.5%
9.5%
10.0%
10.5%
11.0%
11.5%
12.0%
12.5%
13.0%
13.5%
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14
Household Debt Service Ratio
Debt Payments as a Percent of Disposable Personal Income
DSR: Q1 @ 9.9%
Debt Service Ratio
And the debt service ratio has
fallen to historical lows
Source: Federal Reserve Board, U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economics 1919
Household Debt
Rising student loan debt is crowding out other borrowing, particularly for autos and credit
cards
Source: Federal Reserve Board and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
20132003
Mortgage,
70.2%
Student Loans,
3.1%
Auto Loans,
8.7%
Credit Card,
8.7%
HE Revolving,
3.7%
Other, 5.6%
Household Debt - 2003
Mortgage,
70.0%
Student Loans,
9.1%
Auto Loans,
7.5%
Credit Card,
6.0%
HE Revolving,
4.7%
Other, 2.7%
Household Debt - 2013
Economics 20
Consumer Related
Rising equities and higher house prices have a limited effect on consumers
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
$90
$100
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
$90
$100
$110
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14
Household Assets
Trillions of Dollars
Financial Assets: Q1 @ $67.2 Trillion
Household Real Estate Holdings: Q1 @ $20.2 Trillion
Other Tangible Assets: Q1 @ $8.2 Trillion
Source: Federal Reserve Board, Bloomberg LP and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Consumer ConfidenceHousehold Wealth
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Consumer Confidence by Household Income
1985=100; 3-Month Moving Averages
Under $15,000: Jun @ 52.9
$15,000-$24,999: Jun @ 58.1
$25,000-$34,999: Jun @ 71.1
$35,000-$49,999: Jun @ 75.7
$50,000 and Over: Jun @ 105.5
Housing Market
Economics 22
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
5.5%
6.0%
6.5%
7.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
5.5%
6.0%
6.5%
7.0%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Conventional 30-Year Mortgage Rate
Percent, FHLMC Fixed-Rate Mortgage
Conventional 30-Year Fixed Mortg. Rate: Jul-09 @ 4.12%
Mortgage Rates
Although mortgage rates remain
low by historical standards, the
rise over last year has had a
negative effect on homebuying
Source: Freddie Mac and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economics 23
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Existing Home Resales
Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate - In Millions
Existing Home Sales: May @ 4.9 Million
Housing Market: Existing Home Sales
Existing home sales have
struggled with higher mortgage
rates, weaker investor demand
and a particularly severe winter.
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economics 24
100
300
500
700
900
1,100
1,300
1,500
100
300
500
700
900
1,100
1,300
1,500
89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13
New Home Sales
Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate, In Thousands
New Home Sales: May @ 504,000
3-Month Moving Average: May @ 446,333
Housing Market: New Home Sales
New home sales have continued
to improve, though still remain
at very low levels
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economics 25
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Confidence: Plans to Buy a Home
Percent of Consumers, Conference Board
Plans to Buy a Home Within Six Months: Jun @ 5.4%
12-Month Moving Average: Jun @ 5.7%
Home Purchase Expectations
Weak home sales have suffered
from a lack of traditional
homebuyer demand while
investors have dropped out
simultaneously
Source: The Conference Board and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economics 26
-32%
-24%
-16%
-8%
0%
8%
16%
24%
-32%
-24%
-16%
-8%
0%
8%
16%
24%
96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14
Home Prices
Year-over-Year Percentage Change
Median Sale Price: May @ $213,600
Median Sales Price 3-M Mov. Avg.: May @ 5.3%
FHFA (OFHEO) Purchase Only Index: May @ 5.6%
S&P Case-Shiller Composite 10: Apr @ 10.8%
Home Prices
Home prices continue their
upward trajectory, though gains
have moderated considerably
Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency, National Association of Realtors, S&P Corp. and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economics 27
0.0
0.3
0.6
0.9
1.2
1.5
1.8
2.1
2.4
0.0
0.3
0.6
0.9
1.2
1.5
1.8
2.1
2.4
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18
Thousands
Housing Starts
Millions of Units
Multifamily Starts
Multifamily Forecast
Single-family Starts
Single-family Forecast
Forecast
Housing Market: Residential Construction
We expect residential
construction to continue to
advance, though a full recovery
in the housing market is a long
way off
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
North Carolina
Economics 29
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
North Carolina Gross State Product & U.S. GDP
Year-over-Year Percent Change
U.S. GDP: 2013 @ 1.8%
North Carolina GDP: 2013 @ 2.3%
North Carolina: GDP
In 2013, GDP growth in North
Carolina outpaced that of the
nation
Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economics 30
91%
92%
93%
94%
95%
96%
97%
98%
99%
100%
101%
91%
92%
93%
94%
95%
96%
97%
98%
99%
100%
101%
69 73 77 81 85 89 93 97 01 05 09 13
North Carolina Employment: Percent of Previous Peak
Percent
Percent of Previous Peak: May @ 98.7%
North Carolina: Labor Market
But total employment remains
below its prerecession peak
Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economics 31
North Carolina: Labor Market
A large drop in labor force participation has added to the downward momentum of the
unemployment rate
60%
61%
62%
63%
64%
65%
66%
67%
68%
69%
70%
60%
61%
62%
63%
64%
65%
66%
67%
68%
69%
70%
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14
Labor Force Participation Rate
3-Month Moving Averages, Seasonally Adjusted
North Carolina: May @ 61.1%
United States: Jun @ 62.8%
Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
UnemploymentLabor Force Participation
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14
North Carolina vs. U.S. Unemployment Rate
Seasonally Adjusted
Unemployment Rate: May @ 6.4%
United States: Jun @ 6.1%
Economics 3232
May 2014
-2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6%
Information
Other Services
Construction
Financial Activities
Leisure and Hospitality
Manufacturing
Prof. & Bus. Svcs.
Educ. & Health Services
Government
Trade, Trans. & Utilities
Total Nonfarm
North Carolina Employment Growth By Industry
Year-over-Year Percent Change, 3-MMA
Number of
Employees
Less
More
North Carolina: Employment
Employment growth has been
relatively broad based, with
strong gains in administrative
and business support industries
Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economics 3333
98
100
102
104
106
108
110
112
114
98
100
102
104
106
108
110
112
114
10 11 12 13 14
Nonfarm Payrolls
Index 100 = February 2010
Charlotte: May @ 111.6
Raleigh: May @ 113.2
Durham: May @ 107.7
Greensboro: May @ 104.8
Winston-Salem: May @ 105.5
Asheville: May @ 107.3
Wilmington: May @ 106.8
Hickory: May @ 102.9
Fayetteville: May @ 100.4
North Carolina: Employment
Raleigh and Charlotte have had
the strongest recoveries in terms
of employment, while
Fayetteville and Hickory
struggle to return to growth
Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economics 34
North Carolina Unemployment by County
North Carolina Unemployment Rate
May 2014
Less than 6.0%
6.0% to 6.9%
7.0% to 7.9%
8.0% and greater
Economics 3535
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13
North Carolina Nonfarm Employment
Year-over-Year Percent Change
Office Employment: May @ 3.8%
Non-office Employment: May @ 1.4%
North Carolina: Employment
Meanwhile, economies that rely
on office-using industries have
performed considerably better
Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economics 36
North Carolina: Employment
Manufacturing has been declining for years, contributing to the relatively weak economies in
some parts of the state
-16%
-14%
-12%
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
-16%
-14%
-12%
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13
North Carolina Nonfarm Employment
Year-over-Year Percent Change
Manufacturing Employment: May @ -0.1%
Non-Manufacturing: May @ 2.2%
Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Manufacturing Total EmploymentManufacturing Growth
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14
North Carolina Manufacturing Employment
In thousands
Manufacturing Employment: May @ 442.0 thousand
Economics 3737
-4% 0% 4% 8% 12%
Winston-Salem
Greensboro
Asheville
Raleigh
Durham
North Carolina
Charlotte
Wilmington
Construction & Natural Resources Employment
Year-over-Year Percent Change, 3-MMA
May 2013
North Carolina: Construction
Despite strong gains in a few
areas, construction payrolls in
the state are still more than 30
percent from their prerecession
high, pushing workers to look
for jobs in other industries or
remain unemployed
Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economics 3838
-12%
-9%
-6%
-3%
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
15%
-12%
-9%
-6%
-3%
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
15%
96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
North Carolina Personal Income
Bars = Compound Annual Rate Line = Yr/Yr % Change
North Carolina Personal Income: Q1 @ 2.7%
North Carolina Personal Income: Q1 @ 3.1%
North Carolina: Income
Income growth has held steady
in the state but remains below
the gains seen in prior
expansions
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economics 3939
-15%
0%
15%
30%
45%
-15%
0%
15%
30%
45%
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13
North Carolina Sales Tax Revenue
Year-over-Year Percent Change
North Carolina: Q4 @ 3.6%
North Carolina: Sales Tax
Nevertheless, sales tax revenue
is growing again, indicating that
consumers in the state are
feeling more confident
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economics 4040
North Carolina: Housing
The pace of residential construction has slowed, though home price continue to gain
momentum
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14
Thousands
Thousands
North Carolina Housing Permits
Thousands of Permits, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate
Single-Family: May @ 39,264
Single-Family, 12-MMA: May @ 34,242
Multifamily, 12-MMA: May @ 14,072
Single-Family Average (1998-2003): 62,968
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, CoreLogic and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Home PricesResidential Construction
-20%
-16%
-12%
-8%
-4%
0%
4%
8%
12%
16%
20%
-20%
-16%
-12%
-8%
-4%
0%
4%
8%
12%
16%
20%
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14
Core Logic HPI: NC vs. U.S.
Year-over-Year Percent Change
United States: May @ 8.8%
North Carolina: May @ 5.2%
Economics 4141
0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5%
Greensboro
Winston-Salem
North Carolina
Asheville
Durham
Charlotte
Raleigh
Wilmington
North Carolina Population
Year-over-Year Percent Change
2013
North Carolina: Demographics
Areas with the highest
population growth rates are also
likely to see some of the
strongest economic growth rates
moving forward
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economics 42
U.S. Forecast
Wells Fargo U.S. Economic Forecast
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
Real Gross Domestic Product
1
1.1 2.5 4.1 2.6 -2.9 2.7 2.9 2.9 1.8 2.8 1.9 1.4 2.9
Personal Consumption 2.3 1.8 2.0 3.3 1.0 2.2 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.2 2.0 2.1 2.5
Inflation Indicators
2
PCE Deflator 1.4 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.6 1.7 1.9 2.4 1.8 1.1 1.6 2.0
Consumer Price Index 1.7 1.4 1.5 1.2 1.4 2.0 2.1 2.4 3.1 2.1 1.5 2.0 2.3
Industrial Production
1
4.2 1.9 2.5 4.9 4.5 4.8 4.4 4.3 3.3 3.8 2.9 4.2 4.8
Corporate Profits Before Taxes
2
2.1 4.5 5.7 6.2 -2.2 3.6 3.8 4.0 7.9 7.0 4.6 2.4 4.3
Trade Weighted Dollar Index
3
76.2 77.5 75.2 76.4 76.9 75.9 76.5 76.8 70.9 73.5 75.9 76.5 78.2
Unemployment Rate 7.7 7.5 7.2 7.0 6.7 6.2 6.0 5.9 8.9 8.1 7.4 6.2 5.7
Housing Starts
4
0.95 0.86 0.88 1.03 0.93 1.04 1.05 1.07 0.61 0.78 0.92 1.03 1.19
Quarter-End Interest Rates
5
Federal Funds Target Rate 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.63
Conventional Mortgage Rate 3.57 4.07 4.49 4.46 4.34 4.16 4.35 4.34 4.46 3.66 3.98 4.30 4.46
10 Year Note 1.87 2.52 2.64 3.04 2.73 2.53 2.75 2.80 2.78 1.80 2.35 2.70 3.00
Forecast as of: July 9, 2014
1
Compound Annual Growth Rate Quarter-over-Quarter
2
Year-over-Year Percentage Change
3
Federal Reserve Major Currency Index, 1973=100 - Quarter End
4
Millions of Units
5
Annual Numbers Represent Averages
ForecastActual
2013
ForecastActual
2014
Client/Prospect Name
Wells Fargo Securities, LLC Economics Group
43
John E. Silvia … ....................... … john.silvia@wellsfargo.com
Global Head of Research and Economics
Diane Schumaker-Krieg ………………… ……….diane.schumaker@wellsfargo.com
Global Head of Research & Economics
Chief Economist
Mark Vitner, Senior Economist……………....………. . .mark.vitner@wellsfargo.com
Jay H. Bryson, Global Economist …………………....…… ….jay.bryson@wellsfargo.com
Sam Bullard, Senior Economist sam.bullard@wellsfargo.com
Nick Bennenbroek, Currency Strategist ……nicholas.bennenbroek@wellsfargo.com
Eugenio J. Alemán, Senior Economist… ………….eugenio.j.aleman@wellsfargo.com
Anika R. Khan, Senior Economist … . anika.khan@wellsfargo.com
Senior Economists
Zachary Griffiths, Economic Analyst zachary.griffiths@wellsfargo.com
Mackenzie Miller, Economic Analyst mackenzie.miller@wellsfargo.com
Blaire Zachary, Economic Analyst blaire.a.zachary@wellsfargo.com
Economists
Azhar Iqbal, Econometrician………………… ……………azhar.iqbal@wellsfargo.com
Tim Quinlan, Economist …………………… ……………..tim.quinlan@wellsfargo.com
Eric J. Viloria, Currency Strategist eric.viloria@wellsfargo.com
Sarah Watt House, Economist …………… …………sarah.house@wellsfargo.com
Michael A. Brown, Economist ……………… … michael.a.brown@wellsfargo.com
Michael T. Wolf, Economist ………………… … .michael.t.wolf@wellsfargo.com
Economic Analysts
Administrative Assistants
Wells Fargo Securities Economics Group publications are produced by Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, a U.S broker-dealer registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, the
Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, and the Securities Investor Protection Corp. Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, distributes these publications directly and through subsidiaries including, but
not limited to, Wells Fargo & Company, Wells Fargo Bank N.A., Wells Fargo Advisors, LLC, Wells Fargo Securities International Limited, Wells Fargo Securities Asia Limited and Wells Fargo
Securities (Japan) Co. Limited. Wells Fargo Securities, LLC. (“WFS”) is registered with the Commodities Futures Trading Commission as a futures commission merchant and is a member in
good standing of the National Futures Association. Wells Fargo Bank, N.A. (“WFBNA”) is registered with the Commodities Futures Trading Commission as a swap dealer and is a member in
good standing of the National Futures Association. WFS and WFBNA are generally engaged in the trading of futures and derivative products, any of which may be discussed within this
publication. The information and opinions herein are for general information use only. Wells Fargo Securities, LLC does not guarantee their accuracy or completeness, nor does Wells Fargo
Securities, LLC assume any liability for any loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Such information and opinions are subject to change
without notice, are for general information only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sales of any security or as personalized investment advice. Wells
Fargo Securities, LLC is a separate legal entity and distinct from affiliated banks and is a wholly owned subsidiary of Wells Fargo & Company © 2014 Wells Fargo Securities, LLC.
SECURITIES: NOT FDIC-INSURED/NOT BANK-GUARANTEED/MAY LOSE VALUE
Important Information for Non-U.S. Recipients
For recipients in the EEA, this report is distributed by Wells Fargo Securities International Limited (“WFSIL”). WFSIL is a U.K. incorporated investment firm authorized and regulated by the
Financial Conduct Authority. The content of this report has been approved by WFSIL a regulated person under the Act. WFSIL does not deal with retail clients as defined in the Markets in
Financial Instruments Directive 2007. The FCA rules made under the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 for the protection of retail clients will therefore not apply, not will the Financial
Services Compensation Scheme be available. This report is not intended for, and should not be relied upon by, retail clients. This document and any other materials accompanying this
document (collectively, the “Materials”) are provided for general informational purposes only.
Peg Gavin, Executive Assistant. peg.gavin@wellsfargo.com
Cyndi Burris, Senior Administrative Assistant cyndi.burris@wellsfargo.com

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Economic Forecast - Summer 2014 NCLGBA Conference

  • 1. Economic Outlook Michael Wolf, Economist July 18, 2014
  • 2. Economics 22 -10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% -10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 U.S. Real GDP Bars = CAGR Line = Yr/Yr Percent Change GDP - CAGR: Q1 @ -2.9% GDP - Yr/Yr Percent Change: Q1 @ 1.5% Forecast Gross Domestic Product Real GDP declined in the first quarter but those contractionary forces should prove to be temporary Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
  • 4. Economics 4 -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Real Government Purchases Bars = CAGR Line = Yr/Yr Percent Change Government Purchases-CAGR: Q1 @ -0.8% Government Purchases-Yr/Yr: Q1 @ -1.5% Forecast Government Purchases The public sector has remained a weight on the overall economy but should soon move back into being a minor contributor to overall growth Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
  • 5. Economics 5 -$1,600 -$1,400 -$1,200 -$1,000 -$800 -$600 -$400 -$200 $0 $200 $400 -$1,600 -$1,400 -$1,200 -$1,000 -$800 -$600 -$400 -$200 $0 $200 $400 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Federal Budget Surplus or Deficit 12-Month Moving Sum in Billions of Dollars Surplus or Deficit: May @ -$490 Billion U.S. Budget Deficit Deficit is shrinking, but not nearly fast enough Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
  • 6. Economics 6 14% 16% 18% 20% 22% 24% 26% 14% 16% 18% 20% 22% 24% 26% 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 U.S. Budget Gap CBO Baseline Scenario Projections, Percent of GDP Outlays: 2024 @ 22.1% Revenues: 2024 @ 18.3% U.S. Budget Gap The larger problem is that there is still no credible plan to move back into a surplus Source: Congressional Budget Office and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
  • 8. Economics 8 -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Real Business Fixed Investment Bars = CAGR Line = Yr/Yr Percent Change Non-Res Fixed Invest - CAGR: Q1 @ -1.2% Non-Res Fixed Invest - Yr/Yr Percent Change: Q1 @ 3.5% Forecast Business Investment Business investment also declined slightly in the beginning of the year, but all signs point to a moderate pick up in investment moving forward Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
  • 9. Economics 9 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 5.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 5.5% 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 U.S. Nonfin. Corporate Cash Holdings Total Assets Market Value, U.S. Nonfinancial Corporations Cash Ratio: Q1 @ 4.3% 4-Q Moving Average: Q1 @ 4.4% Corporate Cash The financial health of the corporate sector is very strong and should allow corporations to spend more going forward Source: Federal Reserve Board and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
  • 10. Economics 10 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 Small Business Important Problems Single Most Important Problem Facing Firms, SA 3-MMA Regulations: Jun @ 20.0% Taxes: Jun @ 23.0% Poor Sales: Jun @ 13.3% Interest Rates: Jun @ 2.3% Small Businesses Problems have shifted from fears about sales to concerns about taxes and regulation Source: National Federation of Independent Business and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
  • 12. Economics 1212 -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Real Personal Consumption Expenditures Bars = CAGR Line = Yr/Yr Percent Change PCE - CAGR: Q1 @ 1.0% PCE - Yr/Yr Percent Change: Q1 @ 2.0% Forecast Personal Consumption Expenditures Consumption should rebound during the forecast period but growth is likely to remain somewhat subdued Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
  • 13. Economics 13 -1,000 -800 -600 -400 -200 0 200 400 600 -1,000 -800 -600 -400 -200 0 200 400 600 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Nonfarm Employment Change Change in Employment, In Thousands Monthly Change: Jun @ 288K Employment Total employment finally breached its prerecession peak… Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
  • 14. Economics 14 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 Unemployment Rates Seasonally Adjusted U-6 Unemployment Rate: Jun @ 12.1% U-3 Unemployment Rate: Jun @ 6.1% Unemployment …but the unemployment rate overstates the health of the labor market. Discouraged workers and an abundance of part-time work rein in spending Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
  • 15. Economics 15 1% 2% 3% 4% 1% 2% 3% 4% 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Employment Cost Index Year-over-Year Percent Change Wages and Salaries: Q1 @ 1.6% Total Compensation: Q1 @ 1.8% Wages and Salaries In addition, wage growth has been relatively slow to pick up, while inflation begins to pull away Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
  • 16. Economics 1616 -15% -12% -9% -6% -3% 0% 3% 6% 9% 12% -15% -12% -9% -6% -3% 0% 3% 6% 9% 12% 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Real Disposable Personal Income Bars = CAGR Line = Yr/Yr Percent Change Real Disp. Personal Inc. - CAGR: Q1 @ 1.5% Real Disp. Personal Inc. - Yr/Yr Percent Change: Q1 @ 2.3% Forecast Income Disposable income growth is also likely to remain relatively subdued in the near term. Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
  • 17. Economics 17 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 110% 120% 130% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 110% 120% 130% 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 Household Debt - Consumer & Mortgage As a Percent of Disposable Personal Income Household Debt: Q1 @ 97.9% Consumer Balance Sheet Although consumer leverage remains elevated, it is off its prerecession high Source: Federal Reserve Board, U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
  • 18. Economics 18 9.5% 10.0% 10.5% 11.0% 11.5% 12.0% 12.5% 13.0% 13.5% 9.5% 10.0% 10.5% 11.0% 11.5% 12.0% 12.5% 13.0% 13.5% 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 Household Debt Service Ratio Debt Payments as a Percent of Disposable Personal Income DSR: Q1 @ 9.9% Debt Service Ratio And the debt service ratio has fallen to historical lows Source: Federal Reserve Board, U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
  • 19. Economics 1919 Household Debt Rising student loan debt is crowding out other borrowing, particularly for autos and credit cards Source: Federal Reserve Board and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC 20132003 Mortgage, 70.2% Student Loans, 3.1% Auto Loans, 8.7% Credit Card, 8.7% HE Revolving, 3.7% Other, 5.6% Household Debt - 2003 Mortgage, 70.0% Student Loans, 9.1% Auto Loans, 7.5% Credit Card, 6.0% HE Revolving, 4.7% Other, 2.7% Household Debt - 2013
  • 20. Economics 20 Consumer Related Rising equities and higher house prices have a limited effect on consumers $0 $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60 $70 $80 $90 $100 $0 $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60 $70 $80 $90 $100 $110 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 Household Assets Trillions of Dollars Financial Assets: Q1 @ $67.2 Trillion Household Real Estate Holdings: Q1 @ $20.2 Trillion Other Tangible Assets: Q1 @ $8.2 Trillion Source: Federal Reserve Board, Bloomberg LP and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC Consumer ConfidenceHousehold Wealth 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Consumer Confidence by Household Income 1985=100; 3-Month Moving Averages Under $15,000: Jun @ 52.9 $15,000-$24,999: Jun @ 58.1 $25,000-$34,999: Jun @ 71.1 $35,000-$49,999: Jun @ 75.7 $50,000 and Over: Jun @ 105.5
  • 22. Economics 22 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 5.5% 6.0% 6.5% 7.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 5.5% 6.0% 6.5% 7.0% 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Conventional 30-Year Mortgage Rate Percent, FHLMC Fixed-Rate Mortgage Conventional 30-Year Fixed Mortg. Rate: Jul-09 @ 4.12% Mortgage Rates Although mortgage rates remain low by historical standards, the rise over last year has had a negative effect on homebuying Source: Freddie Mac and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
  • 23. Economics 23 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Existing Home Resales Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate - In Millions Existing Home Sales: May @ 4.9 Million Housing Market: Existing Home Sales Existing home sales have struggled with higher mortgage rates, weaker investor demand and a particularly severe winter. Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
  • 24. Economics 24 100 300 500 700 900 1,100 1,300 1,500 100 300 500 700 900 1,100 1,300 1,500 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 New Home Sales Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate, In Thousands New Home Sales: May @ 504,000 3-Month Moving Average: May @ 446,333 Housing Market: New Home Sales New home sales have continued to improve, though still remain at very low levels Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
  • 25. Economics 25 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Confidence: Plans to Buy a Home Percent of Consumers, Conference Board Plans to Buy a Home Within Six Months: Jun @ 5.4% 12-Month Moving Average: Jun @ 5.7% Home Purchase Expectations Weak home sales have suffered from a lack of traditional homebuyer demand while investors have dropped out simultaneously Source: The Conference Board and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
  • 26. Economics 26 -32% -24% -16% -8% 0% 8% 16% 24% -32% -24% -16% -8% 0% 8% 16% 24% 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 Home Prices Year-over-Year Percentage Change Median Sale Price: May @ $213,600 Median Sales Price 3-M Mov. Avg.: May @ 5.3% FHFA (OFHEO) Purchase Only Index: May @ 5.6% S&P Case-Shiller Composite 10: Apr @ 10.8% Home Prices Home prices continue their upward trajectory, though gains have moderated considerably Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency, National Association of Realtors, S&P Corp. and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
  • 27. Economics 27 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.4 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.4 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 Thousands Housing Starts Millions of Units Multifamily Starts Multifamily Forecast Single-family Starts Single-family Forecast Forecast Housing Market: Residential Construction We expect residential construction to continue to advance, though a full recovery in the housing market is a long way off Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
  • 29. Economics 29 -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% North Carolina Gross State Product & U.S. GDP Year-over-Year Percent Change U.S. GDP: 2013 @ 1.8% North Carolina GDP: 2013 @ 2.3% North Carolina: GDP In 2013, GDP growth in North Carolina outpaced that of the nation Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
  • 30. Economics 30 91% 92% 93% 94% 95% 96% 97% 98% 99% 100% 101% 91% 92% 93% 94% 95% 96% 97% 98% 99% 100% 101% 69 73 77 81 85 89 93 97 01 05 09 13 North Carolina Employment: Percent of Previous Peak Percent Percent of Previous Peak: May @ 98.7% North Carolina: Labor Market But total employment remains below its prerecession peak Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
  • 31. Economics 31 North Carolina: Labor Market A large drop in labor force participation has added to the downward momentum of the unemployment rate 60% 61% 62% 63% 64% 65% 66% 67% 68% 69% 70% 60% 61% 62% 63% 64% 65% 66% 67% 68% 69% 70% 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 Labor Force Participation Rate 3-Month Moving Averages, Seasonally Adjusted North Carolina: May @ 61.1% United States: Jun @ 62.8% Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC UnemploymentLabor Force Participation 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 North Carolina vs. U.S. Unemployment Rate Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate: May @ 6.4% United States: Jun @ 6.1%
  • 32. Economics 3232 May 2014 -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% Information Other Services Construction Financial Activities Leisure and Hospitality Manufacturing Prof. & Bus. Svcs. Educ. & Health Services Government Trade, Trans. & Utilities Total Nonfarm North Carolina Employment Growth By Industry Year-over-Year Percent Change, 3-MMA Number of Employees Less More North Carolina: Employment Employment growth has been relatively broad based, with strong gains in administrative and business support industries Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
  • 33. Economics 3333 98 100 102 104 106 108 110 112 114 98 100 102 104 106 108 110 112 114 10 11 12 13 14 Nonfarm Payrolls Index 100 = February 2010 Charlotte: May @ 111.6 Raleigh: May @ 113.2 Durham: May @ 107.7 Greensboro: May @ 104.8 Winston-Salem: May @ 105.5 Asheville: May @ 107.3 Wilmington: May @ 106.8 Hickory: May @ 102.9 Fayetteville: May @ 100.4 North Carolina: Employment Raleigh and Charlotte have had the strongest recoveries in terms of employment, while Fayetteville and Hickory struggle to return to growth Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
  • 34. Economics 34 North Carolina Unemployment by County North Carolina Unemployment Rate May 2014 Less than 6.0% 6.0% to 6.9% 7.0% to 7.9% 8.0% and greater
  • 35. Economics 3535 -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 North Carolina Nonfarm Employment Year-over-Year Percent Change Office Employment: May @ 3.8% Non-office Employment: May @ 1.4% North Carolina: Employment Meanwhile, economies that rely on office-using industries have performed considerably better Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
  • 36. Economics 36 North Carolina: Employment Manufacturing has been declining for years, contributing to the relatively weak economies in some parts of the state -16% -14% -12% -10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% -16% -14% -12% -10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 North Carolina Nonfarm Employment Year-over-Year Percent Change Manufacturing Employment: May @ -0.1% Non-Manufacturing: May @ 2.2% Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC Manufacturing Total EmploymentManufacturing Growth 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 North Carolina Manufacturing Employment In thousands Manufacturing Employment: May @ 442.0 thousand
  • 37. Economics 3737 -4% 0% 4% 8% 12% Winston-Salem Greensboro Asheville Raleigh Durham North Carolina Charlotte Wilmington Construction & Natural Resources Employment Year-over-Year Percent Change, 3-MMA May 2013 North Carolina: Construction Despite strong gains in a few areas, construction payrolls in the state are still more than 30 percent from their prerecession high, pushing workers to look for jobs in other industries or remain unemployed Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
  • 38. Economics 3838 -12% -9% -6% -3% 0% 3% 6% 9% 12% 15% -12% -9% -6% -3% 0% 3% 6% 9% 12% 15% 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 North Carolina Personal Income Bars = Compound Annual Rate Line = Yr/Yr % Change North Carolina Personal Income: Q1 @ 2.7% North Carolina Personal Income: Q1 @ 3.1% North Carolina: Income Income growth has held steady in the state but remains below the gains seen in prior expansions Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
  • 39. Economics 3939 -15% 0% 15% 30% 45% -15% 0% 15% 30% 45% 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 North Carolina Sales Tax Revenue Year-over-Year Percent Change North Carolina: Q4 @ 3.6% North Carolina: Sales Tax Nevertheless, sales tax revenue is growing again, indicating that consumers in the state are feeling more confident Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
  • 40. Economics 4040 North Carolina: Housing The pace of residential construction has slowed, though home price continue to gain momentum 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 Thousands Thousands North Carolina Housing Permits Thousands of Permits, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate Single-Family: May @ 39,264 Single-Family, 12-MMA: May @ 34,242 Multifamily, 12-MMA: May @ 14,072 Single-Family Average (1998-2003): 62,968 Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, CoreLogic and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC Home PricesResidential Construction -20% -16% -12% -8% -4% 0% 4% 8% 12% 16% 20% -20% -16% -12% -8% -4% 0% 4% 8% 12% 16% 20% 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 Core Logic HPI: NC vs. U.S. Year-over-Year Percent Change United States: May @ 8.8% North Carolina: May @ 5.2%
  • 41. Economics 4141 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% Greensboro Winston-Salem North Carolina Asheville Durham Charlotte Raleigh Wilmington North Carolina Population Year-over-Year Percent Change 2013 North Carolina: Demographics Areas with the highest population growth rates are also likely to see some of the strongest economic growth rates moving forward Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
  • 42. Economics 42 U.S. Forecast Wells Fargo U.S. Economic Forecast 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q Real Gross Domestic Product 1 1.1 2.5 4.1 2.6 -2.9 2.7 2.9 2.9 1.8 2.8 1.9 1.4 2.9 Personal Consumption 2.3 1.8 2.0 3.3 1.0 2.2 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.2 2.0 2.1 2.5 Inflation Indicators 2 PCE Deflator 1.4 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.6 1.7 1.9 2.4 1.8 1.1 1.6 2.0 Consumer Price Index 1.7 1.4 1.5 1.2 1.4 2.0 2.1 2.4 3.1 2.1 1.5 2.0 2.3 Industrial Production 1 4.2 1.9 2.5 4.9 4.5 4.8 4.4 4.3 3.3 3.8 2.9 4.2 4.8 Corporate Profits Before Taxes 2 2.1 4.5 5.7 6.2 -2.2 3.6 3.8 4.0 7.9 7.0 4.6 2.4 4.3 Trade Weighted Dollar Index 3 76.2 77.5 75.2 76.4 76.9 75.9 76.5 76.8 70.9 73.5 75.9 76.5 78.2 Unemployment Rate 7.7 7.5 7.2 7.0 6.7 6.2 6.0 5.9 8.9 8.1 7.4 6.2 5.7 Housing Starts 4 0.95 0.86 0.88 1.03 0.93 1.04 1.05 1.07 0.61 0.78 0.92 1.03 1.19 Quarter-End Interest Rates 5 Federal Funds Target Rate 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.63 Conventional Mortgage Rate 3.57 4.07 4.49 4.46 4.34 4.16 4.35 4.34 4.46 3.66 3.98 4.30 4.46 10 Year Note 1.87 2.52 2.64 3.04 2.73 2.53 2.75 2.80 2.78 1.80 2.35 2.70 3.00 Forecast as of: July 9, 2014 1 Compound Annual Growth Rate Quarter-over-Quarter 2 Year-over-Year Percentage Change 3 Federal Reserve Major Currency Index, 1973=100 - Quarter End 4 Millions of Units 5 Annual Numbers Represent Averages ForecastActual 2013 ForecastActual 2014
  • 43. Client/Prospect Name Wells Fargo Securities, LLC Economics Group 43 John E. Silvia … ....................... … john.silvia@wellsfargo.com Global Head of Research and Economics Diane Schumaker-Krieg ………………… ……….diane.schumaker@wellsfargo.com Global Head of Research & Economics Chief Economist Mark Vitner, Senior Economist……………....………. . .mark.vitner@wellsfargo.com Jay H. Bryson, Global Economist …………………....…… ….jay.bryson@wellsfargo.com Sam Bullard, Senior Economist sam.bullard@wellsfargo.com Nick Bennenbroek, Currency Strategist ……nicholas.bennenbroek@wellsfargo.com Eugenio J. Alemán, Senior Economist… ………….eugenio.j.aleman@wellsfargo.com Anika R. Khan, Senior Economist … . anika.khan@wellsfargo.com Senior Economists Zachary Griffiths, Economic Analyst zachary.griffiths@wellsfargo.com Mackenzie Miller, Economic Analyst mackenzie.miller@wellsfargo.com Blaire Zachary, Economic Analyst blaire.a.zachary@wellsfargo.com Economists Azhar Iqbal, Econometrician………………… ……………azhar.iqbal@wellsfargo.com Tim Quinlan, Economist …………………… ……………..tim.quinlan@wellsfargo.com Eric J. Viloria, Currency Strategist eric.viloria@wellsfargo.com Sarah Watt House, Economist …………… …………sarah.house@wellsfargo.com Michael A. Brown, Economist ……………… … michael.a.brown@wellsfargo.com Michael T. Wolf, Economist ………………… … .michael.t.wolf@wellsfargo.com Economic Analysts Administrative Assistants Wells Fargo Securities Economics Group publications are produced by Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, a U.S broker-dealer registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, and the Securities Investor Protection Corp. Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, distributes these publications directly and through subsidiaries including, but not limited to, Wells Fargo & Company, Wells Fargo Bank N.A., Wells Fargo Advisors, LLC, Wells Fargo Securities International Limited, Wells Fargo Securities Asia Limited and Wells Fargo Securities (Japan) Co. Limited. Wells Fargo Securities, LLC. (“WFS”) is registered with the Commodities Futures Trading Commission as a futures commission merchant and is a member in good standing of the National Futures Association. Wells Fargo Bank, N.A. (“WFBNA”) is registered with the Commodities Futures Trading Commission as a swap dealer and is a member in good standing of the National Futures Association. WFS and WFBNA are generally engaged in the trading of futures and derivative products, any of which may be discussed within this publication. The information and opinions herein are for general information use only. Wells Fargo Securities, LLC does not guarantee their accuracy or completeness, nor does Wells Fargo Securities, LLC assume any liability for any loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Such information and opinions are subject to change without notice, are for general information only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sales of any security or as personalized investment advice. Wells Fargo Securities, LLC is a separate legal entity and distinct from affiliated banks and is a wholly owned subsidiary of Wells Fargo & Company © 2014 Wells Fargo Securities, LLC. SECURITIES: NOT FDIC-INSURED/NOT BANK-GUARANTEED/MAY LOSE VALUE Important Information for Non-U.S. Recipients For recipients in the EEA, this report is distributed by Wells Fargo Securities International Limited (“WFSIL”). WFSIL is a U.K. incorporated investment firm authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. The content of this report has been approved by WFSIL a regulated person under the Act. WFSIL does not deal with retail clients as defined in the Markets in Financial Instruments Directive 2007. The FCA rules made under the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 for the protection of retail clients will therefore not apply, not will the Financial Services Compensation Scheme be available. This report is not intended for, and should not be relied upon by, retail clients. This document and any other materials accompanying this document (collectively, the “Materials”) are provided for general informational purposes only. Peg Gavin, Executive Assistant. peg.gavin@wellsfargo.com Cyndi Burris, Senior Administrative Assistant cyndi.burris@wellsfargo.com