The economic growth potential that can result from shift in a Population’s age structure, mainly when the share of working age population (15-64) is larger than the non-working age share of the population(14 Years and younger and 65 years and older)

1. Population and Economic Development
Prof. Mahendra Kumar Ghadoliya

2. Content
• Introduction
• Demographic Theory of Population
• Demographic Dividend
• Causes of population growth in India
• Population Policy in India

3. Malthusian Theory of Population
• In his Essay on the Principle of Population, initially published
in 1798, Malthus postulated that population tended to grow
geometrically while the means of subsistence (food) grew
only arithmetically.
• The Malthusian Trap
arithmetic growth (food):
1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10…
geometric growth (population):
1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64, 128, 256, 512…

4. Concepts and Definitions
• Rate of population increase is measured as the percentage yearly
net relative change in population due to natural increase and net
international migration.
• Natural increase is the difference in the fertility rate and mortality
rate.
• Total Fertility Rate (TFR) is the average number of children a
woman would have assuming that the current age-specific birth
rates remain constant throughout her childbearing years. The
child bearing years range between 15-49 years of age.

5. Demographic Transition
• The demographic transition framework illustrates population
growth in terms of discrepancies and changes in two crude vital
rates – mortality and fertility (ignores migration) Crude vital
rates:-
• Crude Death Rate (CDR) = Crude Birth Rate (CBR) =
# deaths in calendar year * k # deaths in calendar year * k
mid–year population mid–year population
•The crude death rate is the number of deaths in a year per 1000
mid year population of the given geographical area during the same
year.

9. Demographic Transition
• High steady Birth and High but fluctuating Death Rate therefore
high natural increase rate. The death rate increase due to war
disease.
• High Birth and Low Death Rate- industrialisation and medical
advances
• Low Death Rate and declining Birth Rate due to voluntary
acceptance of small family norm natural increase rate falls
• Low steady death and Birth rates low natural increase rate as in
stage one.
• It has not occurred uniformly across various regions.

10. Demographic Transition
• The process of demographic transition in India is said to have set
in sometime in the late 1920s and early 1930s when death rates
started declining. Prior to that, India’s population was in the first
stage with very high birth and high death rates. The death rate
fluctuated from year to year, and as a consequence, the size of
population remained almost stationary. With the onset of decline
in the, death rates, the population of the country entered the
second stage of transition and passing through the stage of
population explosion. Now the Sign of slowing down has started
and soon after one and half decade we may have the last stage of
stable population.

11. Demographic Dividend
• Demographic Dividend occurs when the proportion of working
population is high due to declining fertility and child mortality
rates.
• United Nations population fund defines, “ The economic growth
potential that can result from shift in a Population’s age structure,
mainly when the share of working age population (15-64) is larger
than the non-working age share of the population(14 Years and
younger and 65 years and older)
• This is also a time when many women enters the labour force for
the first time.

12. Demographic Dividend
• Shift in age structure of population

13. Mechanism for growth in the Demographic Dividend
• Increase in Labour supply- Productive employment of extra
workers
• Increase in Savings- dependent population decreases. Savings
increases and capital increases. This can be invested.
• Human Capital- decrease in fertility rates results in healthier
women and better health and education to children
• Increasing Domestic Demand increase GDP
• Demographic dividend is followed by demographic burden

14. Causes of Population Growth in India
• Economic Factors-
(a) Poverty
(b) subsistence agriculture
(c) Slow Urbanization
• Social Factors
(a) Universality of marriage
(b) Joint family
(c) Illiteracy
• Religious Factors
• Control of famine
• Improved medical facility
Trends in population Growth
Population Growth
Year Population
(in Million)
Decadal
Growth %
Change in
Decadal
Growth%
1911 252 5.75 ---
1921 251 0.31 -6.05
1931 278.8 11.0 11.31
1941 318.7 14.22 3.22
1951 360.9 13.31 -0.91
1961 439.2 21.64 8.33
1971 548 24.8 3.16
2001 1028.7 21.54 10.54
2011 1210.1 17.64 -0.47

15. Population Policy in India-
• Aim of the population policy is to produce a perceptible and significant
decrease in Birth Rate, to accelerate the rate of economic growth, to
improve qualitative aspect of population and to reduce further the death
rate.
• Policy of indifference till 1961. India adopted Family Planning Programme
under five year plans. Cafeteria Approach was adopted
• National population Policy 1976- reduce the rate of growth of population,
Age at Marriage was raised from 14 to 18 years for girls and from 18 to
21years for boys. Parliament and state assembly seats fixed on 1971
basis.
• Family Planning programme was integrated with health, Maternity, child
welfare, nutrition
• Grant was fixed on the basis of 1971 population
• Family planning was made popular
• Population education was added in the School syllabus.

16. Population Policy in India
• National Population Policy of 2000
• This policy was based on short, medium and long term objectives.
• Reduce maternal mortality rate to below 100 per lakh live birth
• Reduce Infant Mortality Rate to below 30 per 1000 live birth
• Achieve Universal immunisation of children
• Achieve universal access to information
• Promote delayed marriage for girls
• Promote small family norm
• To review the implementation of the national population policy a
National Commission on Population was set-up.

17. Appropriate Population Policy
A population problem is basically a problem of economic development
and social transformation.
Increase Educational Facilities
Low Infant Mortality
Increase social security and employment
Reduction in inequalities of income and wealth
Rapid Industrialisation
Raise standard of living
India’s Population as per 2011 census was 121.02 cr