Combining hardware and software poses all kinds of development risks. However, while development risks can be mitigated in-house, Market Risks are just as critical for commercial success – yet are further from home, harder to identify, and prone to interpretations. Product Managers, who are expected to balance hard demands from stakeholder with soft user & market needs, need tools to effectively plan and execute market validations. Many new IoT product-systems do not have existing benchmarks or predicates, leaving the field open to opinions. In his talk Noam Bernstein, Director of Strategic Business Development at Nekuda taught us how Market Validations can be planned and run in parallel and throughout the development process and how to use a range of low-fi and advanced tools, to maximize the Research activity of the IoT value chain.

1. Industrial Design Bezalel 2002
8 years active designer & design manager
>25 products launched in global markets
> millions units sold of products I designed
failed miserably with a few, too
MBA Strategy major IDC 2010
6 years guiding MBA real strategic consulting projects
Nekuda Design Management physical & digital IOT Innovation
Global Consumer Electronics Samsung, Haier, PepsiCo
NOAM BERNSTEIN

2. Working
on your...
MVP
Gen2
Product
Acceptance
OR
?
worried
about...

3. I don’t need it
I don’t understand it
I won’t pay for it
I won’t recommend it
The face of Market Risk

4. Impossible to mitigate in house
Irrational by human nature
Hard to quantify
Unpredictable path to solution
Susceptible to opinions and intuitions
Challenges of Market Risk

5. Market risk is comprised of 2 types:
Category risk
impacts all
players
Private risk
Product-Market
my fit

6. Your business inherits inherent risks
of your category
• User expectations
• Product economics & lifecycle
• Retail & channel partners power
• Regulation
• Supply chain & Production
• Technology dependencies & hurdles
• Investment & ROI cycles

7. https://9to5mac.com/2016/04/11/apple-watch-sales-
2015-2016/
http://appleinsider.com/articles/16/06/16/jp-morgan-
downgrades-apple-stock-expectations-on-negative-
macro-trends-apple-watch-forecast
Nobody is immune to market risk

8. Nobody is immune to market risk

9. by
RESEARCH
YOU CAN
Mitigate your
Private risk
The Good News

10. Diabetes algorithm
go to market

11. Empathy
PlanningLogic

12. Empathy – listening to needs and pains
http://www.bresslergroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/header_empathy_1.png

13. “...people don’t know
what they want until
you show them”
Steve Jobs
(so don’t ask
them what
they want!)

14. Don’t ask me
About my pains
What frustrates me?
Where do I get stuck?
Ask me
About my life
How my day/work feels?
What is meaningful for me?
for Features
(even if I think I know!)

15. Meaning
Functionality
Challenge:
Leap across
the chasm
Credit: Kozatch Pyramid
Features:
Functionality
Benefits:
What I get from it
Meanings:
How my life might change
Pleasure
Convenience
Usability
Reliability
Aim to create value beyond function

16. Who to ask? Identify your segments
The
Chasm

17. Different profiles help you roadmap
MVP
GEN2

18. How many interviews?
2-3
to get the
interview
protocol
right
6-20
depending
on segments
resources
& risk

19. Interview plan: avoiding your own bias
#1: Who are they? (Demographics)
#2: Their jobs, needs, pains? (psychographics)
#3: Concept boards / co-creation

20. Empathy
PlanningLogic

21. Logic – achieving confidence

22. Planning Research that will drive
confident choice and Action
Executing:
Questions  Answers  Choices  Action
Planning:
Questions  Answers  Choices  Action

23. Connecting subjective insights to
statistical trends builds confidence
Quant
70-200 depending on segments
Validate profiles
Link profiles to segments
Macro Reports
Find fitting segments
Size your market
Qual
6-20 interviews
Discover needs & pains
Build Profiles

24. Ensure your data links to Macro reports
Qual:
Your specific
Need-related
(psychographic)
profiles.
Macro reports:
Typically generic
demographic data
(age, income,
segment size)
Quant:
Specific profile
questions
AND
demographic
validation

25. Example
My profiles:
• Willingness to wear
medical watch
• Wrist size (Gender)
Macro reports:
Age Gender Medical condition Insurance
Quant:
Will you wear watch?
Wrist size?
AND
Gender + Age
+ Medical condition

26. Structure of a short quant questionnaire
#1 Demographics (easy to answer)
#2 psychographics (my profiles)
-----Show Concept boards----
#3 Collect immediate (gut) reactions
#4 More thoughtful reactions

27. Empathy
PlanningLogic

28. Planning – making it happen

29. Validate early to reduce the costs
of “no-go” or “change” decisions (INSEAD)
Late Decisions have
Substantial negative
financial impact
Early decisions have
minimal negative
financial impact
$$$$
50%
100%
75%
25%
0%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Cost
months

30. Start by feeding & validating the MRD
Concept
Boards
Validate
Concept
for PRD
P.O.C
Alpha
Validate Key
functions &
benefits
Demo
Validate
benefits for
SW/HW
Spec
Beta
Test
Validate
design
MVP
Launch
Validate
Market
User
Research
Validate needs
for MRD
SRR
SDR
PDR
CDR
FDR
Existing R&D deliverables
Arrive very late
new deliverables
simulate early

31. Accurately defined Low-Fi simulations
can be good enough

32. Empathy
PlanningLogic

33. Poker apps & women players

34. NOAM BERNSTEIN
http://www.nekudadm.com/www.linkedin.com/in/noam-bernstein-651ab01

35. Thank you!