This document summarizes the findings of a survey conducted by the Pew Research Center in 10 EU nations, the US, China, and India from April to May 2016 with over 18,000 respondents. Some key findings include:
- Populist party supporters in Western countries are more likely to believe their nation's role and influence in the world has declined compared to 10 years ago, and that their economy is currently bad.
- Europeans are more negative than Americans about the impact of increasing diversity on their countries. Europeans also express more concern than Americans about refugees being a threat to security.
- Trust in government and other institutions has declined significantly in many Western countries in recent decades. Many Europeans want to return some powers
An Atoll Futures Research Institute? Presentation for CANCC
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Populism and global engagement europe, north america and emerging economies december 8 2016
1. Populism and Global Engagement:
Europe, North America and
Emerging Economies
Bruce Stokes, Director of Economic Attitudes
Katie Simmons, Associate Director of Research
December 8, 2016
2. December 16, 2016 2
Pew Research Center
âą Established 1996
âą Funded by The Pew Charitable Trusts, Foundations
âą Non-profit, non-partisan fact tank in Washington
âą Since 2002, we have surveyed in 93 countries
âą www.pewresearch.org
âą @pewresearch
www.pewresearch.org
3. December 16, 2016 3www.pewresearch.org
Methodology
âą Surveys conducted in 10 EU nations, the U.S., China and India from April 4
to May 24, 2016, totaling 18,115 respondents
âą Based on nationally representative telephone and face-to-face interviews
with adults 18 and older conducted under the direction of TNS BMRB and
Princeton Survey Research Associates International
âą The margin of sampling error for the complete set of weighted data is
±3.2% - ±4.7%
âą The survey in Europe covers countries that account for 80% of the EU-28
population and 82% of the EU-28 GDP
5. December 16, 2016 5www.pewresearch.org
Concern About Declining National Influence
Compared to 10 years ago, our country plays a __ role in the world today
Note: In U.S. asked about playing âa more important and powerful role as a world leader today.â
Source: Spring 2016 Global Attitudes Survey and Pew Research Center Survey conducted April 12-19, 2016.
46%
65
52
50
46
40
33
30
28
28
11
31%
15
23
28
30
37
29
45
43
20
25
21%
17
19
21
23
20
34
23
28
45
62
U.S.
Greece
Italy
Spain
France
UK
Hungary
Netherlands
Sweden
Poland
Germany
Less important As important More important
6. December 16, 2016 6www.pewresearch.org
Many Americans Say Life Is Worse for Them Today
Compared with 50 years ago, life for people like you in America today is âŠ
Source: Survey conducted August 9-16, 2016.
44% 16% 36%U.S.
Worse Same Better
7. December 16, 2016 7www.pewresearch.org
Europeans, Americans Among Most Pessimistic About Future
Note: Percentages are regional medians. Europe median of France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain and the United Kingdom.
Source: Spring 2015 Global Attitudes Survey.
% saying that when children in our country grow up, they will be better off financially than their parents
58%
56
51
32
32
28
Latin America
Africa
Asia/Pacific
Middle East
U.S.
Europe
8. December 16, 2016 8www.pewresearch.org
Populists More Worried About National Decline
% saying country is less important in world today than 10 years ago
among those who have __ opinion of each party/support __ candidate
Source: Spring 2016 Global Attitudes Survey and Pew Research Center Survey conducted April 12-19, 2016.
52%
15
46
77
43%
10
39
26
France (FN) Germany (AFD) UK (UKIP) U.S.
Favorable Unfavorable ClintonTrump
Note: Bold indicates the difference is statistically significant. In U.S. asked about playing âa less important role ⊠as a world leader as it did
10 years ago.â Support for candidate in the U.S. is based on primary preference, not general election preference. Trump supporters are
asked of Republican and Republican leaning voters. Clinton supporters are asked of Democratic and Democratic leaning voters.
9. December 16, 2016 9www.pewresearch.org
Concerns About the Economy Are Shared Among Many
% saying economy is bad among those who have __ opinion of each party/support __ candidate
Source: Spring 2016 Global Attitudes Survey and Pew Research Center Survey conducted March 17-27, 2016.
88%
33
48
8785%
20
48
56
France (FN) Germany (AFD) UK (UKIP) U.S.
Favorable Unfavorable
ClintonTrump
Note: Bold indicates the difference is statistically significant. Response category in U.S. combines âonly fairâ and âpoorâ. Support for
candidate in the U.S. is based on primary preference, not general election preference. Trump supporters are asked of Republican
and Republican leaning voters. Clinton supporters are asked of Democratic and Democratic leaning voters.
10. NEGATIVE VIEWS OF DIVERSITY AND IMMIGRANTS
December 16, 2016 www.pewproject.org 10
11. December 16, 2016 11www.pewresearch.org
Europeans More Negative About Diversity than Americans
Having an increasing number of people of many different races, ethnic groups and
nationalities in our country makes it âŠ
Source: Spring 2016 Global Attitudes Survey. U.S. survey conducted March 17-27, 2016.
7%
63
53
41
40
36
31
31
26
24
22
33%
27
25
39
33
46
40
34
38
48
45
58%
10
18
17
14
17
26
33
36
26
31
U.S.
Greece
Italy
Hungary
Poland
Netherlands
Germany
UK
Sweden
France
Spain
A better
place to live
Doesnât make
much difference
A worse
place to live
12. December 16, 2016 12www.pewresearch.org
Americans Say Immigrants Strengthen the Country
Immigrants todayâŠ
Source: Pew Research Center Survey conducted March 17-27, 2016.
33% 59%U.S.
Burden our country by taking
jobs, housing, health care
Strengthen our country
through hard work, talents
13. December 16, 2016 13www.pewresearch.org
Europeans Most Concerned About Refugeesâ Threat to Security
Note: Netherlands excluded on crime question due to administrative error.
Source: Spring 2016 Global Attitudes Survey.
76%
71
61
61
60
57
55
52
46
40
59
Hungary
Poland
Netherlands
Germany
Italy
Sweden
Greece
UK
France
Spain
MEDIAN
75
44
31
65
32
72
46
53
40
50
82%
26
35
47
46
30
28
24
13
30
--
43%
Top choice
Refugees will increase the
likelihood of terrorism
in our country
Refugees are a burden on our
country because they take our
jobs and social benefits
Refugees in our country
are more to blame for
crime than other groups
14. December 16, 2016 14www.pewresearch.org
Populists Particularly Worried About Refugees and Immigrants
% saying refugees/immigrants are a burden on jobs/benefits
among those who have __ opinion of each party/support __ candidate
Source: Spring 2016 Global Attitudes Survey and Pew Research Center Survey conducted March 17-27, 2016.
82%
69 69 69
43%
24
34
17
France (FN) Germany (AFD) UK (UKIP) U.S.
Favorable Unfavorable
ClintonTrump
Note: Bold indicates the difference is statistically significant. Support for candidate in the U.S. is based on primary preference, not
general election preference. Trump supporters are asked of Republican and Republican leaning voters. Clinton supporters are
asked of Democratic and Democratic leaning voters.
15. LACK OF FAITH IN INSTITUTIONS
December 16, 2016 www.pewproject.org 15
16. December 16, 2016 16www.pewresearch.org
American Trust in Government Has Been Declining for Years
Trust the federal government to do what is right just about always/most of the time
Note: From 1976-2014 the trend line represents a three-survey moving average.
Sources: Pew Research Center Surveys, National Election Studies, Gallup, ABC/Washington Post, CBS/New York Times and CNN Polls.
0
20
40
60
80
58 61 64 67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 00 03 06 09 12 15
%
17. December 16, 2016 www.pewresearch.org 17
Which statement best describes your views about the future of the European Union?
68%
65
47
44
43
40
39
39
38
35
42
18%
25
38
29
25
35
26
21
39
27
27
8%
6
13
24
26
17
21
34
9
30
19
Greece
UK
Sweden
Netherlands
Germany
Hungary
Italy
France
Poland
Spain
MEDIAN
Some powers should be returned to national govts
Division of powers should remain the same
National govts should transfer more powers to EU
Many Europeans Want Power Back From EU
Source: Spring 2016 Global Attitudes Survey.
18. December 16, 2016 18www.pewresearch.org
Populists Critical of EU Power
% saying some powers should be returned to national governments
among those who have __ opinion of each party
Source: Spring 2016 Global Attitudes Survey.
47%
60
81
37%
42
59
France (FN) Germany (AFD) UK (UKIP)
Favorable Unfavorable
Note: Bold indicates the difference is statistically significant.
20. December 16, 2016 20www.pewresearch.org
Most Publics Prioritize Dealing With Problems At Home
Our country should âŠ
Source: Spring 2016 Global Attitudes Survey and Pew Research Center Survey conducted April 12-19, 2016.
57%
83
77
67
65
60
52
51
45
40
40
56
37%
12
18
22
21
36
43
43
51
53
55
40
U.S.
Greece
Hungary
Italy
Poland
France
UK
Netherlands
Sweden
Germany
Spain
EU MEDIAN
Deal with its
own problems
Help other countries deal
with their problems
21. December 16, 2016 21www.pewresearch.org
Divide Over Benefits of Global Economic Engagement
Our countryâs involvement in the global economy is âŠ
Source: Spring 2016 Global Attitudes Survey and Pew Research Center Survey conducted April 12-19, 2016.
A bad thing because it lowers
wages and costs jobs
A good thing because it provides new
markets and opportunities for growth
49%
57
45
44
39
34
29
27
25
24
24
32
44%
35
51
44
56
56
64
48
71
70
72
56
U.S.
Greece
France
Italy
Spain
Hungary
UK
Poland
Sweden
Germany
Netherlands
EU MEDIAN
22. Americans Favor Free Trade Deals, But Support is Slipping
December 16, 2016 www.pewresearch.org 22
Source: Pew Research Center Survey conducted August 9-16, 2016.
Free trade agreements between the U.S. and other countries have been a __ for the United States
52
48
59 58
51 50
34
41
30
33
39
42
0
100
Good thing
Bad thing
%
20162015201420112009
23. December 16, 2016 23www.pewresearch.org
Republicans Turn Negative on Free Trade Agreements
% of registered voters who say free trade agreements have been a __ for the U.S. âŠ
Notes: Based on registered voters.
Source: Pew Research Center Survey conducted August 9-16, 2016.
Among Republican and Republican-leaning
registered voters
Among Democratic and Democratic-leaning
registered voters
57
42
55 51
3231
48
36
39
61
0
75
2009 2016
Bad thing
Good thing
48
51
60
55
58
37 39
30
36 34
0
75
2009 2016
Bad thing
Good thing
% %
24. December 16, 2016 24www.pewresearch.org
Trump Supporters Wary of U.S. Global Engagement
% of registered voters who support __ that say âŠ
Note: Support for candidate is based on primary preference, not general election preference. Trump supporters are asked of
Republican and Republican leaning voters. Clinton supporters are asked of Democratic and Democratic leaning voters.
Source: Pew Research Center Survey conducted April 12-19, 2016.
In foreign policy, the U.S. should
follow its own interests even when
its allies strongly disagree
Involvement in the global economy
is a bad thing because it lowers
wages and costs jobs
65%
56
37% 35
Trump Clinton
25. December 16, 2016 25www.pewresearch.org
National Front Supporters Critical of Global Engagement
% with a __ view of the National Front (FRA) that sayâŠ
Source: Spring 2016 Global Attitudes Survey.
France should deal with
its own problems and let
other countries deal with
theirs
In foreign policy, France
should follow its own
interests even when its
allies strongly disagree
Involvement in the global
economy is a bad thing
because it lowers wages
and costs jobs
53%
78
68
43%
53
47
Favorable Unfavorable
26. December 16, 2016 26www.pewresearch.org
AfD Supporters Also Wary of Global Engagement
% with a __ view of the Alterative for Germany (GER) that sayâŠ
Source: Spring 2016 Global Attitudes Survey.
Germany should deal
with its own problems
and let other countries
deal with theirs
In foreign policy, Germany
should follow its own
interests even when its
allies strongly disagree
Involvement in the global
economy is a bad thing
because it lowers wages
and costs jobs
38%
65
55
22%
35
25
Favorable Unfavorable
27. December 16, 2016 27www.pewresearch.org
UKIP Backers Very Inward Looking
% with a __ view of the UK Independence Party (UK) saying that âŠ
Source: Spring 2016 Global Attitudes Survey.
The UK should deal with
its own problems and let
other countries deal with
theirs
In foreign policy, the UK
should follow its own
interests even when its
allies strongly disagree
Involvement in the global
economy is a bad thing
because it lowers wages
and costs jobs
38%
74 76
25%
42 43
Favorable Unfavorable
29. December 16, 2016 29www.pewresearch.org
Chinese and Indians Overwhelmingly Optimistic About Future
Source: Spring 2016 Global Attitudes Survey.
When children in our country grow up, they will be __ financially than their parents
5%
20
82%
72
China
India
Better offWorse off
30. December 16, 2016 30www.pewresearch.org
Majority of Indians and Chinese Say Country
Plays More Important Role
Compared to 10 years ago, our country plays a __ role in the world today
Source: Spring 2016 Global Attitudes Survey.
75%
68
10%
4
10%
15
China
India
More important As important Less important
31. December 16, 2016 31www.pewresearch.org
Chinese and Indians Favor Global Economic Engagement
Our countryâs involvement in the global economy is âŠ
23%
25
60%
52
China
India
A good thing because it provides new
markets and opportunities for growth
A bad thing because it
lowers wages and costs jobs
Source: Spring 2016 Global Attitudes Survey.
32. December 16, 2016 32www.pewresearch.org
Many Indians Want to Consider Alliesâ Interests in Foreign
Policy
In foreign policy, our country should âŠ
Source: Spring 2016 Global Attitudes Survey.
49%
5%
18%
28%
Take into account
the interests of
our allies, even if
it means making
compromises
Follow its own
national interests,
even when its allies
strongly disagree
Don't know
Neither/Both (VOL)
33. December 16, 2016 33www.pewresearch.org
But, Like Most Europeans and Americans, Chinese, Indians
Want to Prioritize Problems At Home
Our country should âŠ
56%
53
22%
23
China
India
Help other countries
deal with their problems
Deal with its own problems and let
other countries deal with theirs
Source: Spring 2016 Global Attitudes Survey.
34. December 16, 2016 34
All Pew Research Center reports and data are
available online at www.pewresearch.org
Global Attitudes: www.pewglobal.org
@pewglobal
www.pewresearch.org
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