Today's networks mirror their electric telegraph and telephone forebears with working practices, building/facility locations dictated by a copper past. Many of the latest optical networks still utilise old planning and design rules, but Transparent Optical Networks offer new opportunities to break the legacy with direct links between countries, islands, cities, towns and villages. They also offer future proof solutions devoid of 'bandwidth blocking' electronics, and very often, do not require optical amplification. The attendant energy demands and reliability risks associated with electronic transmission and switching are also displaced by 'optical only signals' of a hybrid (analogue-digital) form. The operational opportunities and economic gains of TONs combined with non-linear optics cannot be overstressed as they eclipse anything and everything that has gone before.

1. Clear Sighted
Transparency
Peter Cochrane
cochrane.org.uk
ca-global.org
COCHRANE
a s s o c i a t e s
Thursday, 5 July 12

2. Some things are inherently complex...
...and some things are made complex by us!
Thursday, 5 July 12

3. Networks of all kinds naturally exhibit complexity
...of interaction, behaviours and outcomes!
Thursday, 5 July 12

4. Networks of all kinds naturally exhibit complexity
...of interaction, behaviours and outcomes!
Interconnection
of yeast proteins
Thursday, 5 July 12

5. Complexity rapidly leads to non-linearity...
...with emergent behaviours...and we have
no real idea what is going to happen!
Thursday, 5 July 12

6. Thursday, 5 July 12

7. We have no generalised math framework for
dealing with non-linearity...and it may be
fundamentally beyond our capacity!
Thursday, 5 July 12

8. Our systems and networks will
increasingly surprise us if we
continue on the current
trajectory !
Thursday, 5 July 12

9. Although we fully understand layered complexity does not
solve the problem, we mostly continue to build more layers in
the hope that it might...
Thursday, 5 July 12

10. Axiom: We are building a global nightmare of over-complex
systems at a computing, networking, fixed,
mobile, machine and human level !
Thursday, 5 July 12

11. Economic and trading markets are prime examples of
uncontrolled and misunderstood complexity!
Thursday, 5 July 12

12. This is not ‘rocket science’, but it is complexity
compounded by greed.......
Thursday, 5 July 12

13. Digital Failures
•Always abrupt
•Mostly avoidable
•Often caused by people
•Unanticipated mechanisms
•Increasingly life threatening
•Dominantly very expensive
•Reputationally damaging/fatal
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14. te
ca
di is
ra th rk
e f o
st h o tw
u c e
m u n n
e m e ca
W as th e
m sw
f ro a
Thursday, 5 July 12

15. Strange attractors that bring down networks today... ..
...and tomorrow...
Thursday, 5 July 12

16. Strange attractors that bring down networks today... ..
...and tomorrow...
Thursday, 5 July 12

17. Strange attractors that bring down networks today... ..
and tomorrow...
Thursday, 5 July 12

18. Dumb
industry
solutions
like MPLS,
FTTC, +++
are a result
of unthinking
short termism
Thursday, 5 July 12

19. Confusion is rife, complexity growing, and a wireless
future can’t do
it all...
.. everyone
of these needs
a transparent
optical fibre
connection
Thursday, 5 July 12

20. If we started from a clean sheet:
- 180km between repeaters not 40km
- 30k people instead of 160k
- 60 switches not 7000
- Gbit/s not Mbit/s
Thursday, 5 July 12

21. Fibre rich networks instead of fibre sparse - no
TPON, GPON, BPON, XPON...
- PONS made sense when fibre was 30p/m
- But now it is 1p/m they are irrelevant and far too complex
- They are also bandwidth limiting
- A ‘dog’ to manage
- And reduce reliability
Thursday, 5 July 12

22. By the same token say goodbye to blown fibre...
Thursday, 5 July 12

23. WDMA instead of TDMA...
...amplification instead of regeneration...
Thursday, 5 July 12

24. IP over WDM...Ethernet...
Thursday, 5 July 12

25. Remove coding to reduce latency, lower cost, improve
reliability and improve performance...
- Compressing signals to save bandwidth is old thinking
- Bandwidth is cheap and near infinite
- Coding is expensive
Thursday, 5 July 12

26. We have to leave this legacy behind...
Thursday, 5 July 12

27. We need to push complexity
to the periphery and keep the
network ‘essentially simple’...
Thursday, 5 July 12

28. If we do
not, this
world will
not be realised in
the way we would like!
Thursday, 5 July 12

29. We
can
only
. ..
...w
hat
the
futu
re h
olds
. ..
Thursday, 5 July 12

30. But we do know it will
be mobile and it will
eat bandwidth, lots of
bandwidth...
A transition of < 70 years
Thursday, 5 July 12

31. The expectation is anything and everything,
anytime, anywhere, any
format...instantaneously!
IP over WDM...Ethernet...
Thursday, 5 July 12

32. And this has to be global...
...to be reliable and resilient, it will also be relatively dumb !
Thursday, 5 July 12

33. Thank You
www.cochrane.org.uk
Thursday, 5 July 12