8. 1c. Elites have polarized (and sorted), but Agenda Dependency Behavioral Polarization Preference Polarization?
9. Ideology Thermometer Scores of Party Identifiers and Activists Source: ANES Notes: Activists are defined as respondents who engaged in 3 or more campaign activities as coded in vcf0723. Leaners are coded as partisans. The Liberal/Conservative Index (vcf0801) measures a respondent's relative thermometer ratings of "Liberals" and "Conservatives." It is calculated by subtracting the Liberal Thermometer score from 97 and averaging the result with the Conservative Thermometer score. Cases are weighted by vcf0009.
10. Party Elites Have Become More Extreme (From Self-Placement of National Convention Delegates on 5-Point Liberal-Conservative Scale through 2008)
16. No Increasing Ideological Polarization Percentage of Americans who classify themselves as moderates or DK)
17. No Polarization on Policy Issues in 2008* Source: 2008 ANES * “Haven’t thought much about it” responses recoded as moderates
18.
19.
20. Republican Percent of Two-Party Presidential Vote Source: American National Election Studies. Note: Party identification includes strong and weak partisans.
28. When Should Abortion Be Legal? (2008 NES) Source: ANES, 2008 22 50 Always as a personal choice 16 13 For a clear need 35 26 Only in case of rape, incest, or when the woman's life is in danger 28 11% Never Strong Republicans Strong Democrats
29. 2008 NYT Delegate Survey Source: NYTimes/CBS Poll. September 1, 2008. 38 54 More Strict Gun Control 17 24 Personal Religious Beliefs Should Be Discussed in Presidential Campaigns 13 84 2001 Tax Cuts Should be Made Permanent 28 41 No Legal Recognition of Gay Relationships 21 27 More Important to protect Environment than to Meet Energy Needs 56 78 Right Thing for the US to Have Taken Military Action Against Iraq 23 61 Abortion Should Be Generally Available 50 87 More important to Provide Health Care than to Hold Down Taxes 33 55 Very/Fairly Good National Economy 28 43 Illegal Immigration is a Very Important Problem Identifier Difference Delegate Difference
38. Mayer: Trends in U.S. Public Opinion -.22 1.03 -1.38 -.98 -3.79 -.06 .64 -.16 -.53 .65 -.55 -.63 -17.12 -2.67 2.98 t-stat (12) .000 Services vs. Spending (12) -.002 Defense Spending (12) -.095 The Military (15) -.003 Labor Unions (12) -0.67 People on Welfare (12) -.032 Big Business (6) -.021 Environmentalists (9) .046 Gays and Lesbians (17) .019 Conservatives (17) -.005 Liberals Thermometers (8) -.001 Health Insurance (9) .002 Aid to Blacks (16) -.022 Role of Women (17) -.004 Guaranteed Jobs (17) .004 General Ideology Seven Point Scales (n) Coefficient Dependent Variable
44. Percentage of Respondents Who See Important Differences Between What the Parties Stand For: 1960 - 2008 Source: ANES
45. Party Sorting without Increasing Polarization 60 liberals, 40 conservatives Democrats 40 liberals, 60 conservatives 100 moderates Period I Republicans Independents 10 liberals, 90 conservatives 100 moderates 90 liberals, 10 conservatives Period 2
46. Should Federal Government Make it More Difficult to Buy a Gun? Source: 2004 ANES 40 78 More difficult 54 19 About the same 6% 2% Make it easier Strong Republicans Strong Democrats
48. So, marginal distributions of positions have not changed since the 1970s, but 4. Dimensions are more correlated (more later)
49. Ideological Scores of Median Legislators, Committee Chair, and Prestige Chairs Democratic Controlled House of Representatives, Elected 1948 - 2006
50. Districts of Selected Democratic Representatives Source: Jay Cost and Real Clear Politics. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/horseraceblog/
51. 2004 NYT Delegate Survey 35 72 Extremely important to work through UN 19 44 No legal recognition of gay relationships 28 62 New anti-terrorism laws excessively restrict civil liberties 32 62 Abortion generally available 35 88 Make all or most tax cuts permanent 35 67 Cut taxes to improve economy 13 72 % Government should do more to solve national problems Identifier Difference Delegate Difference
52. Partisan Differences: 1987-2007 Average percentage difference between the answers of Republicans and Democrats on 40 questions asked consistently for 20 years Source: The Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, 2007.
53. Average Placement of the Democratic and Republican Parties on the Lib-Con Scale Source: ANES
Whole discussion begins with elites – Poole and Rosenthal (1984) “The Polarization of American Politics”
But what if the discussion had begun in the 1960s when I was in grad school? Han and Brady (2007 BJPS) ... But what if the discussion had begun in the 1960s, when we were in grad school? (Han and Brady BJPS)
Whole discussion begins with elites – Poole and Rosenthal (1984)
Krehbiel / Lee / Roberts and Smith. Selection bias in occurrence of roll calls could overstate or understate polarization.
Parliamentary systems?
Attitudinal polarization
No evidence that 2008 electorate looks any different from 1976 electorate. Not ideological, but pragmatic.
So, if you wanted to argue that 1976 electorate and 2008 electorate were same, you’d be on pretty solid ground (except for party sorting)
But 90% of Republicans vote for Bush and 90% of Dems for Kerry. Polarization? A little geometry …
Sometimes we make things needlessly complicated: At same time this map represented an electorate set in stone …
Nobody bothered to look …
Even on abortion there are strong Democrats and strong Republicans whose views are “wrong.” Why do they stay Reps or Dems? Because they don’t care about the issue very much.
Book aimes mostly at a general audience
Here’s what’s been going on. In this picture moral dimension doesn’t matter
Assuming income determines policy stand, two interesting pie slices: Frank—false consciousness / Gelman—wealthy people in wealthy states
Moral issues have become more important? No, more CONSEQUENTIAL, but not more important.
Boris Shor (2008) Corruption?
Digress: Same on gun control and other issues—Republicans not homogeneous
Suppose there always was a second dimension—but no one noticed because candidates didn’t differ
One of the ironies of politics is that the bigger your win, the more heterogeneous is your coalition.
But sorting far from perfect at level of ordinary Americans—don’t differ nearly as much as political class
And still not that much
So, if you wanted to argue that 1976 electorate and 2008 electorate were same, you’d be on pretty solid ground (except for party sorting)
1996-2006
Abramowitz: common, but really stacks deck in this case Wolfinger: re-fried least squares
