2022 End of Year HR and Comp Panel

Today's Panelists:
Amy Stewart
Associate Director,
Content
Moderator
James Redfern
Chief Financial
Officer
Lexi Clarke
VP of People
Ruth Thomas
Chief Product
Evangelist
Russ Wakelin
Chief Product
Officer

Today's Agenda
• Brief introduction
• Panel questions
• Audience Q&A

Greatest Challenges in HR
In Payscale’s Compensation Best Practices Report,
we asked participants to prioritize their most difficult
challenges as well as where they are investing more:
• Recruiting, Retention, Compensation, and Engagement
topped the list during The Great Reshuffle.
• Employee & Labor Force Relations was notably regarded
as more challenging than the investment it receives.
• ESG (environmental, social and corporate governance) fell
to the bottom of the priority list in 2022.
The 2023 Compensation Best Practices Survey is
open for participation now through 12/31/22.
https://www.research.net/r/CBPR23_EOY?id=[id_value]

Recession?
• Rising cost to invest will make investors bearish
• The inverted yield curve signals an impending recession
• 98% of CEOs believe there will be a recession
• Headlines of layoffs mean a recession is already here
• Layoffs will beget more layoffs, which will force a recession
• Job openings are dropping
• Rising unemployment will tighten the job market and we will
start to see a shift back to an employer’s market
• Cash reserves are down; people are switching to saving
• GDP could be negative in future quarters with a recession
occurring anytime in the next 12-18 months
No Recession?
• Increased investment rates are long overdue and necessary
• The inverted yield curve signals relief from inflation dropping
• The Fed will manage interest rates to ensure a soft landing
• Layoffs are spottier than they appear in the news
• Layoffs are just organizations taking advantage to cut costs
• Job openings are still absurdly high
• Low workforce participation means low supply which will cause
the job market to resurge and continue to be employee-driven
• Consumer spending is up; Black Friday was good for retailers
• The GDP in Q3 was positive, so we have not had two quarters in
a row of negative growth as most recessions require

Unemployment suggests a strong labor economy

GDP growth dipped in Q1 and Q2 but was up in Q3

The Fed has raised interest rates multiple times to tame inflation
0.75-point
increase
Federal funds target rate Federal Reserve Statement 11/2/22:
“The Committee seeks to achieve
maximum employment and inflation at
the rate of 2 percent over the longer
run. In support of these goals, the
Committee decided to raise the target
range for the federal funds rate to 3-
3/4 to 4 percent.”
Source: Federal Reserve, charted by The New York Times

US treasuries yield curve is inverted, suggesting a recession

But the job market looks to remain strong

“Quiet Quitting” and “Act Your Wage”

Pay transparency legislation is on the rise

Layoffs

Performance reviews

Making market adjustments for hot jobs
Check out Payscale’s 2022
End of Year Hot Jobs Report
https://www.payscale.com/research-and-
insights/hottest-jobs-end-of-year-report-2022/

How do you know if you are paying fairly?
Attrition rate by market penetration
Compa-ratio (external market fairness)

The ROI of fair
pay and the
phenomenon
of nominal
wage rigidity
during an
economic
downturn

Q&A
Feel free to ask any questions in the chat!