Presentation to SAE February 16, 2018.

1. Vision for a
Roadmap to Autonomy

2. Autonomous Vehicles Are EVERYWHERE!

3. Embark’s self-driving truck completes 2,400 mile cross-U.S.
trip

4. Are YOU Ready?

5. HYPE—Heady Yarn for Price/Earnings
• Lots of conferences worldwide
• Who’s doing the work if everyone is attending
conferences and TALKing about it?
• Technology Always Looks Kool!

6. 49 Companies Licensed to Test in
California
• Volkswagen Group
of America
• Mercedes Benz
• Way
• Delphi Automotive
• Tesla Motors
• Bosch
• Nissan
• GM Cruise LLC
• BMW
• Honda
• Ford
• Zoox, Inc.
• Drive.ai, Inc.
• Faraday & Future Inc.
• Valeo North America, Inc.
• NIO USA, Inc.
https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/dmv/detail/vr/autonomous/testing
• Telenav, Inc.
• NVIDIA Corporation
• AutoX Technologies Inc.
• Subaru
• Udacity, Inc.
• Navy INc.
• Renovo.auto
• UATC LLC (Uber)
• PlusAi INc.
• Nuro, Inc.
• CarOne LLC
• Apple Inc.
• Bauer’s Intelligent
Transportation
• Pony.AI
• TuSimple
• Jingchi Corp
• SAIC Innovation Center, LLC
• AImotive Inc
• Aurora Innovation
• Nullmax
• Samsung Electronics
• Continental Automotive Systems Inc
• Voyage
• CYNGN, Inc.
• Roadstar.Ai
• Changan Automobile
• Lyft, Inc.
• Phantom AI
• Qualcomm Technologies, Inc.
• aiPod, Inc.
• SF Motors Inc.
• Toyota Research Institute
• Apex.AI

7. Trucking Companies—
Electric/Autonomous
• Embark
• tuSimple
• Tesla
• Nikola
• Thor
• Hyliion e-Axle
• Meritor
• Cummins
• Caterpillar
• GAZ Group
• Proterra
• Volvo
• Daimler Trucks
• Navistar
• PACCAR
• Toyota
• Uber ATG (Otto)
• TransPower
• Siemens
• Iveco
• MAN/SCANIA
• KAMAZ

8. New Names
• Auro Robotics
• Einride
• GAZ Group
• Local Motors
• NAVYA
• SB Drive
• Starsky Robotics
• Volgabus
• Yutong

9. Mining

10. Bus

11. Big Trucks

12. Work, Ag & Short
Haul

13. Indoor Work

14. Package
Delivery
Toyota unveils autonomous e-commerce
concept vehicle, development alliance
Robot Delivery Vans Are Arriving Before Self-Driving Cars

16. Car
GM will make an autonomous car without
steering wheel or pedals by 2019

17. Door
Delivery

18. Bik
e

19. Dron
e

20. Personal

21. Range—How Far and Fast Can You Go?
• Last 50 Feet
• Last Mile
• Local Delivery
• Short Daily Range
• Medium Daily Range
• Long Daily Range
• 4 mph
• 10 mph
• 25 mph
• 40 mph
• 55 mph
• 70 mph

22. Pain and Benefits—More AND Less
• Higher uptime
• Reach where others can’t—Medical to rural
• Lower fuel costs
• Handle declining manpower, aging population
• Increase profits from 24/7 operation
• Improve environment
• GM Zero Future—emissions, accidents, congestion
• Reduce accidents
• Reduce congestion—less time to get places
• Reduce emissions

23. Costs Driven More
• 50% increase in diesel fuel cost in 2 yrs
• Oil above $65/barrel
• Drilling starting up again

24. What’s Important to You and Your
Business?
• Fuel Economy
• Aerodynamics
• Speed
• Safety
• Enjoyment
• Yes, some people enjoy driving
• Profit Margins
• Total Societal Impact (TSI)

25. Autonomous Vehicles Are the Next Robot

27. Cruise Control
Adaptive Cruise Control
Self Parking
Tesla AutoPilot
Platooning
Highway Only
“DriverLess”
Embark
TuSimple
Tesla Semi

28. Complexity Increases with Autonomy Level

29. Complexity Increases with Autonomy Level

30. Complexity Increases with Autonomy Level

31. Complexity Increases with Autonomy Level

32. Complexity Increases with Autonomy Level

34. Multiple Paths to Autonomy
Vertical
IntegrationHorizontal Integration
Legislation
Regulation
Actuators
CyberSecurity
Sight Sensors
GPS
Mapping
Artificial
Intelligence
V2X
Vehicle
PowerPlant
Moral
DecisionsInsurance
Interior
DesignHearing
ISO26262
Where
UnionsWireless Infrastructure
Privacy
Training
Roads

35. Seeing Is Believing

36. I Can’t See You!
• Lidar
• Radar
• Vision
• Monocular
• Stereo
• 360º
• 360º Bird’s Eye View
• Ultrasonic
• V2X

38. STMicroelectronics Radar Roadmap
MMIC SoC
Monolithic Microwave Integrated Circuit System on a Chip

39. Radar Improving
Magna unveils high-definition ICON RADAR – scJanuary 16, 2018

40. Cameras—Smaller, Cheaper, Better

41. Night Vision Improving
DENSO develops new vision sensor for improve

42. Road Repairs in the RoadMap

43. https://hackernoon.com/mit-6-s094-deep-learning-for-self-driving-cars-2018-lecture-2-notes-e283b9ec10a0
Who You Gonna Trust?

44. So, When Will This Happen?
• Kids 15-25 years to autonomy
• What does it take?
• Education
• Practice
• Failure
• Injuries
• Intelligence

45. Consumer Technology Adoption 20-90 yrs.

46. CarPlay Announced in 2013?
Toyota and Lexus vehicles will finally start getting CarPlay

47. Impressive Growth of Cameras and Radar

48. Still Only 50%

49. Will Auto Car Profit Potential Drive It?

50. Asia Usurps Everyone for Trucks

51. Daimler Makes A Lot of Trucks

52. 1.7 Million Heavy Trucks per Year

53. Autonomous Vehicle Sales Could Reach 188,00
Looking ahead, Tractia’s researchers found that the market will continue to develop at a strong pace over the next few years with more competiti
An executive summary of the report can be downloaded by visiting Tractia’s website.

54. 100,000 Autonomous Trucks Is Just 3%/yr.

55. Just 0.04% of Commercial Vehicles in Operation

56. When?
Office of the Inspector General

57. Kia & Peugeot
Peugeot CEO: All PSA vehicles will electrified by 2025

58. Daimler, Bosch
Self-driving taxis from Daimler, Bosch
Feb. 5, 2018 2:29 AM ET|By: Yoel Minkoff, SA News Editor
More robo-taxis? Daimler (OTCPK:DDAIF), the world's
No.1 maker of premium cars, and Bosch (OTC:BSWQY),
the world's No.1 automotive supplier, will begin testing
the vehicles "in the coming months."
"Apart from highly autonomous level 3 vehicles we will
also bring fully autonomous vehicles - level 4/5 - to the
streets in the foreseeable future," Daimler's Wilko Stark
told Automobilwoche.

60. What Will Power the Autonomous Vehicle?
• Diesel
• Biodiesel
• Gasoline
• Natural Gas
• BioGas
• Propane
• Ethanol
• Electricity
• Fuel Cell
• Battery
• Catenary

61. Autonomous—Connected—Electrified

62. No More Gas—It’s NOT a Pill
• CA Bill to banish gas cars by 2040
• China, France, U.K. on record against
gas

63. Big Push for Electric

64. How Stories Change with Technology

65. Electric Commercial Vehicles Are Here
NOW
FUSO eCanter – first all-electric trucks in series
production delivered to customers in Europe

66. Cat Got Your Tongue?
Electrified Highway Goes
Live to Serve Ports of
Long Beach, Los Angeles

67. Electrified

68. Some Questions
to
Consider

69. Difficult to Interpret Lane Markings

70. School Bus Is Uniquely USA

71. Can’t Stay On Track?

72. HyperLoop—High Speed Rail in a Tunnel

73. Mistakes ARE Inevitable
Robots (Autonomous Vehicles) Will Make Fatal
AutoMyles – Paul Myles
There’s a potentially heavy ethical price to pay towards a safer future, Continental’s Dr. Elmar Degenhart to
People killed by autonomous vehicles are an inevitable price to pay for a Vision Zero future.
That’s the admission made by Dr. Elmar Degenhart, chief executive officer and executive board member of
When asked to reflect on comments made to us by Lockheed Martin’s Michael DeKort in the article Guinea
He said: “No technology is perfect. We might see cars that are driving at Level 4, Level 5 which will not be a

74. Some Questions?
• How does it go through a weigh station?
• Who is responsible for Pre/Post Trip?
• How do I get pizza to my door?
• How does a Starbucks’ drive thru work?
• How do you validate self-learning software?
• If someone in vehicle, what is the human
interface?
• What will it cost to repair after a crash?
• If I’m running to catch a bus, will it wait for me?

75. My Conclusions for Fleets
• Not everyone can survive
• All struggling to figure measurable benefit
to fleet
• Always takes longer than people think
• It will happen
• You can’t live without cell telephone today
• When it was Analog/2G it was a hard sell

76. Robotic Car or Driver?