1. News December 21st, 2011
Fitch: Romania is less exposed to the
crisis than other European countries
Romania ranks 11th among 36 emerging countries in the world
according to Fitch Ratings assessed the risks posed by exposure to
the debt crisis in the euro area, but is best placed among the
European countries in the most vulnerable 3rd ranking, according
Mediafax.
Fitch doesn’t anticipate a shortage of capital markets similar to that in 2008–2009, but believes that
the crisis in the euro area has the potential to increase investors' fears and reluctance to risk shown
in a biannual report on credit rating as regards World Economic Outlook. In July, Fitch has
improved Romania's rating from BB+ to BBB- level, category recommended for investment. To be
ranked, Fitch considered the main channels of contagion, namely trade, external financing, the
financial system situation, inflation and government debt, and calculated an overall score for
Romania.
Romania has a high risk exposure to banks only in the euro area average risk for exposure to euro
area exports, gross external financing needs, the share of external debt in total government debt
and inflation. Romania’s risks are reduced regarding raw materials dependency, government debt
to GDP and an index on the financial system situation, including the ratio of loans and deposits, real
growth of credit and lending to GDP ratio.
The only non-European countries placed in the first third of the stack are Vietnam, located on the 1st
place, Tunisia (3rd place) and Morocco (12th place). In 2nd place is Hungary, where high debt and
unorthodox financial politics have undermined investor confidence in the government and forced
the authorities to start negotiations with the IMF for a new assistance program. Other European
countries considered by Fitch more susceptible to the crisis than Romania in the euro area are
Latvia, ranked 4, followed in order by Ukraine, Turkey, Lithuania, Poland, Bulgaria and Croatia.
Fitch said that the most resistant to the crisis in the euro area are countries in Asia and the Middle
East.
Eng. Paul Keisch Page 1
