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Breaking the Barrier

Interactive Election Campaign
Communication on Twitter
during the German General Election 2009




Pascal Jürgens              Andreas Jungherr
U of Mainz, Germany         U of Bamberg, Germany
pascal.juergens@gmail.com   andreas.jungherr@gmail.com
Twitter and Politics
The 2009 German General Election started
with the impression of Obama’s online
campaign fresh in mind
Due to several high-profile incidents, German
media and politics focussed on Twitter at
least as much as on other social networks

                                               2
Twitter Overview
»Micro-publishing« — publish short messages
Re-Tweet — quote message including attribution
Directed (@-)message          — explicitly sent to a
recipient

Topic tags (#)     — defines the topic of the message

High degree of mobile usage
(~15% in our dataset)

                                                       3
Data Collection
Bootstrap: List of political twitter users
(Assembled from several websites compiling lists of politicians on
twitter)

Growth: perpetual search for #tags
(Add new users to sample)

Capture: Collect all new tweets
(Also crawling archives for coverage over entire time range)

Graphs: Nightly snapshot of friend/followers
                                                                     4
Dataset
Three months prior to General Election
A sample of Germany’s politically active
twitter users — 33 048 individuals
A complete archive of their communication
(public tweets) — 10 109 894 messages
A temporal map of their connections

                                            5
Message Volume
                      Election Day




     Twitter Outage




                                     6
Political Message Volume
                              Election Day



                       TV debate


      Poster remixes




                                             7
“We are strong enough
                                            for security and
                                                freedom”




                                                     “We know:
                                                War means (is) peace”



www.flickr.com/photos/41501796@N06/3823362599/
                                                                    8
Defining Links

Followers are a questionable indicator of
influence (Cha et al: “The Million Follower Fallacy”)
Intentional, meaningful interaction as a link:
@-messages and quotes (re-tweets)


                                                       9
Network Structure
            Distribution of Incoming Links (cumulative)
                    Degree Distribution                                                      Degree Distribution
1e+00




                                                                                   little connected




                                                                         1.0
                                                                                    users make up
                                                                                      the majority
1e-01




                                                                         0.8
                                                  cumulative frequency

                                                                         0.6
1e-02




                                                                         0.4
                                                                                                              highly connected
1e-03




                                                                                                                  users are
                                                                                                                 infrequent
                                                                         0.2
1e-04




                                                                         0.0




        1      10           100           1000   10000                         0      2000       4000          6000     8000

                         in-degree                                                                in-degree



              (Clustering Coefficient C = .045                               Random Erdös-Rényi Graph C = .001)
                                                                                                                                 10
The Visible Core
          ∑ interactive messages per user / ranked
30000

                                    @-Messages       Retweets

22500




15000




 7500




   0
                                                                11
«The Rich get Richer»

Follower gain over sample timespan
correlates with intensity of interaction
(Spearman’s Rho rs = .54, two-tailed p ≃ 0)


Corresponds to “preferential attachement”
theory on network growth
New participants attach (follow) to most visible nodes




                                                         12
Content Analysis

Hand-coded a sample from each of the 50
most prominent users
Prominence: Volume of meaningful
communication (direct messages + re-tweets)
Coding for content topic, references, links


                                              13
Top 50 users
                                      6
                                6
The Pirate Party
The Green Party
                              3
   Jörg Tauss
                                                        35

     Politicians / Parties   Media   Media-like Blogs   Personal Accounts   14
Content Typology
Mindcasting, Lifecasting, Workcasting




    personal   intellectual   work-related   automatic

                                                         15
Content Typology
400



300



200



100



 0
      political               national politics   regional politics
      link to party website   re-tweet            directed message
                                                                      16
Results
Reach on twitter is very dependent on a small
group of users (new gatekeepers)
Preferential attachement makes entry into
twitter ecosystem difficult
Politicians are only successful if they attach
to existing topics/trends/conventions? (e.g.
Jörg Tauss, Piratenpartei)
                                                 17
Results II
Dedicated “political” communities do not
play a significant role.
Dedicated “political” users do (mostly) not
play a significant role.
Political communication happens ad-hoc in
issue-driven topics among non-political
tweets and topics.
                                              18
Topical Interaction




                      19
Politics as One Among Many Topics




     Translated:
     “I’ll be glad once the election campaigns
     are over and we can all like each other
     again. Especially once the dull discussions
     come to an end.”                              20
Thank you

            21

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Breaking the Barrier: Interactive Election Campaign Communication

  • 1. Breaking the Barrier Interactive Election Campaign Communication on Twitter during the German General Election 2009 Pascal Jürgens Andreas Jungherr U of Mainz, Germany U of Bamberg, Germany pascal.juergens@gmail.com andreas.jungherr@gmail.com
  • 2. Twitter and Politics The 2009 German General Election started with the impression of Obama’s online campaign fresh in mind Due to several high-profile incidents, German media and politics focussed on Twitter at least as much as on other social networks 2
  • 3. Twitter Overview »Micro-publishing« — publish short messages Re-Tweet — quote message including attribution Directed (@-)message — explicitly sent to a recipient Topic tags (#) — defines the topic of the message High degree of mobile usage (~15% in our dataset) 3
  • 4. Data Collection Bootstrap: List of political twitter users (Assembled from several websites compiling lists of politicians on twitter) Growth: perpetual search for #tags (Add new users to sample) Capture: Collect all new tweets (Also crawling archives for coverage over entire time range) Graphs: Nightly snapshot of friend/followers 4
  • 5. Dataset Three months prior to General Election A sample of Germany’s politically active twitter users — 33 048 individuals A complete archive of their communication (public tweets) — 10 109 894 messages A temporal map of their connections 5
  • 6. Message Volume Election Day Twitter Outage 6
  • 7. Political Message Volume Election Day TV debate Poster remixes 7
  • 8. “We are strong enough for security and freedom” “We know: War means (is) peace” www.flickr.com/photos/41501796@N06/3823362599/ 8
  • 9. Defining Links Followers are a questionable indicator of influence (Cha et al: “The Million Follower Fallacy”) Intentional, meaningful interaction as a link: @-messages and quotes (re-tweets) 9
  • 10. Network Structure Distribution of Incoming Links (cumulative) Degree Distribution Degree Distribution 1e+00 little connected 1.0 users make up the majority 1e-01 0.8 cumulative frequency 0.6 1e-02 0.4 highly connected 1e-03 users are infrequent 0.2 1e-04 0.0 1 10 100 1000 10000 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 in-degree in-degree (Clustering Coefficient C = .045 Random Erdös-Rényi Graph C = .001) 10
  • 11. The Visible Core ∑ interactive messages per user / ranked 30000 @-Messages Retweets 22500 15000 7500 0 11
  • 12. «The Rich get Richer» Follower gain over sample timespan correlates with intensity of interaction (Spearman’s Rho rs = .54, two-tailed p ≃ 0) Corresponds to “preferential attachement” theory on network growth New participants attach (follow) to most visible nodes 12
  • 13. Content Analysis Hand-coded a sample from each of the 50 most prominent users Prominence: Volume of meaningful communication (direct messages + re-tweets) Coding for content topic, references, links 13
  • 14. Top 50 users 6 6 The Pirate Party The Green Party 3 Jörg Tauss 35 Politicians / Parties Media Media-like Blogs Personal Accounts 14
  • 15. Content Typology Mindcasting, Lifecasting, Workcasting personal intellectual work-related automatic 15
  • 16. Content Typology 400 300 200 100 0 political national politics regional politics link to party website re-tweet directed message 16
  • 17. Results Reach on twitter is very dependent on a small group of users (new gatekeepers) Preferential attachement makes entry into twitter ecosystem difficult Politicians are only successful if they attach to existing topics/trends/conventions? (e.g. Jörg Tauss, Piratenpartei) 17
  • 18. Results II Dedicated “political” communities do not play a significant role. Dedicated “political” users do (mostly) not play a significant role. Political communication happens ad-hoc in issue-driven topics among non-political tweets and topics. 18
  • 20. Politics as One Among Many Topics Translated: “I’ll be glad once the election campaigns are over and we can all like each other again. Especially once the dull discussions come to an end.” 20
  • 21. Thank you 21