Presentation from ICEF Miami 2014, Risk and Reward in International Enrollment Management

1. ICEF Miami “Risk and Reward in International Student Recruitment”
©All material strictly Miami 2014 copyright Barton Carlyle 2014

2. Strategic Risk 2
Risk & Reward
Strategy
Recruitment

3. Strategic Risk Management 3
External Forces:
Global Student Mobility
Education system dynamics
Economic conditions
Immigration/visa regulations
Student choice
Technology
Rankings
Competition
Internal Forces:
Culture of organization/provider
Resources
Curriculum
Reputation & rankings
Technology Infrastructure
Internationalization goals
Staff capability/experience
International Positioning
Marketing/branding
Partnerships
Recruitment Plan
Metrics
Communications

4. Strategic Risk 4
“…every obstacle, every issue that has the potential to materially affect the achievement of our strategic objectives.”
Dr.Georg Klein, Siemens AG
Source: Deloitte survey (2013)
“Risk is uncertainty, but we have to take risks to get to our goals, especially during changing times”.
Sandra G. Carson, VP, Enterprise Risk Management and Compliance, Sysco Corporation

5. Strategic Risk Management 5
Market
•Environment uncertainty
Portfolio
•Business Model Uncertainty
Strategy
•Industry uncertainty
External econ, political, social and physical environment
Legislation
Demographics
Capabilities
Programs and services
Organisational flexibility, technology, competitive strategy
Effects of competition
Customer behaviour
Technological innovation (industry level)

6. Risk Management 6
Portfolio Risks
Strategic Risk
Programs
Pricing
Channels
Competition
Student Mobility Trends
Soc-EcImpacts
Strategy Delivery
Market Risks
Environment
Can’t control:
Understand and navigate through market research and market intelligence systems
Business Model
Can control:
Portfolio of programs and services, choice of mediators
Industry
Can influence:
Benchmarking, best practice, collaboration, professional assocs

7. 7
What’s your profile?
Risk Management: Risk profile

8. Mission and Vision, Growth targets, portfolio balance, Offshoring interest, senior management capacity
Strategic Plan
Relevance to global issues, learning and career outcomes, range of curricular methodologies
Programs
Govtpartnerships, agent networks, sponsor links, research collaborations (Univs), institutional collaboration, offshore offices
Partnerships
Patterns of communications, digital and social media capabilities, alumni networks, staff networks, study abroad
Reach
Market intelligence and market research investments, patterns of competition
Market understanding
Trends, Market dependencies, market development capabilities
Enrollment patterns
8
Risk Management: Risk profile

9. Strategic
Market
Structural
Reputation
Program Management
Financial
TYPES OF RISK
9
Risk Management: Risk profile

10. Managing Risk
Put together a risk register:
Simple spreadsheet
Describe the issue
Describe the potential impact of the risk
What will warn you that this risk is out there?
Quantifythe impact
Quantifythe probability/likelihood
Assign a value (product of impact x likelihood values)
How often will you monitor?
What actions will you take to mitigate the risk?
Who owns it?

11. Risk Management: Risk Register
What type of risk?
Risk/Issue?
Potential impacts?
Triggers/warnings?
Impact VH/H/M/L (# or %)
Probability VH/H/M/L (# or %)
Risk Value
MonitoringActions
Mitigating Actions
Impact x probability = risk value

12. VH/L
VH/M
VH/H
VH/VH
H/L
H/M
H/H
H/VH
M/L
M/M
M/H
M/VH
L/L
L/M
L/H
L/VH
Impact
Probability/Likelihood
Risk Management: Risk Mapping
Key
# %
VH
Very High
5 100
H
High
480
M
Medium
3 60
L
Low
2 40
VL
Very Low
120
Adapted from KPMG sources © Barton Carlyle 2014

13. Managing Risk: Risk Mapping
Sovereign market risk
Example: Government of China decides to cap numbers of students studying internationally to give preference to the development of domestic provision
Challenges –
How exposed are we to the China market (how reliant on Chinese students)?
How much advance warning?
Will there be a list of approved programs? Are we well placed (reputation and presence) to be on it?
Can we predict scale of income loss?
How do we go about mitigating this risk?
Examples of Risk approach
13

14. Managing Risk: Market Research 14
Evidence for your strategy
Global trends
Competition
Market potential
Calculating market share
Supporting segmentation decisions
Choosing communication paths
Reputation/branding perceptions
Costs of recruitment
Understanding student choice
Mapping retention
Monitoring impact

15. Managing Risk: Market Research 15
S
Strengths
W
Weaknesses
O
Opportunities
T
Threats
Role of Market Intelligence

16. 16
ICEF/i-graduate Annual Agent Barometer
i-graduate Annual ISB (International Student Barometer)
Managing Risk: Market Research

17. MARKET SCANNING

18. 18
Scenario Planning
“Scenario planning is not so much actively predicting the future as it is about understanding the…environment and the nature of the risks that environment can give rise to. Insights gained from scenario planning should equip organisations to recognize and respond to significant emerging threats and opportunities, and in the process building enhanced…competitiveness, resilience and agility”
KPMG Australia 2011
https://www.kpmg.com/AU/en/IssuesAndInsights/ArticlesPublications/Documents/Manage- the-future-through-scenario-planning-v3.pdf

19. Managing Risk: Scenario Planning 19
Risk Strategy
Risk profile
Future proofing
Risk reporting
Risk Mitigation
Strategy delineates risk appetite
Positioning research and risk mapping generate risk profile
Scenario planning supports future orientation
Reporting supports active risk management
Mitigation actions diminish or eliminate possible impact of risks
Mitigation actions adjust strategy and support realignment of risk profile

20. Scenarios: What if? 20
Sorting out market exit

21. Scenarios: What if? 21
Fraud and security issues

22. Scenarios: What if? 22
Reputational issues

23. 23
Scenario Planning
1.Map basic trends and driving forces
2.Find key uncertainties
3.Describe critical and unpredictable driving forces
4.Distill to two forces/factors
5.Identify factor extremes and check for plausibility
6.Map these onto an x/y axis
7.Define scenarios
Be careful about how you develop scenarios:
http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/strategy/the_use_and_abuse_of_scenarios
http://monitor.icef.com/2014/02/beyond- forecasting-how-to-use-scenario-planning-to-map- the-future/

24. 24
Scenario Planning
Possible Topics
Disruption to potential student flows
Impacts of technology
Rise of market entrants and/or competitor disruption
Pathway provision impacts on ESL market?

25. Summary: Managing Risk
Develop a risk management strategy:
Understand your institution’s risk appetite
Map your risk profile
Develop your risk register
Incorporate risk management in your international strategy
Mitigate risk –using market research to understand change drivers
There are opportunity risks –estimate the risk of doing nothing as much as you manage the risk of doing something!
www.bartoncarlyle.com

26. Pamela Barrett, Director Barton Carlyle
E: pamela@bartoncarlyle.com
T: (44) 7788 600 388
www.bartoncarlyle.com
THANKSFor your participation!