Pa resources nordic energy summit 2013 21 march 2013
1. PA Resources
Bo Askvik, President & CEO
Swedbank First Securities
Nordic Energy
Summit 2013
Oslo, 21 March 2013
2. Today’s three topics
>> FOURTH QUARTER 2012
Q4 Financial highlights
>> STRENGTHENED FINANCIALS
Recapitalisation completed
>> PA RESOURCES WAY FORWARD
Strategy and investment focus
2
3. Attractive Asset Portfolio
KEY FACTS:
• Oil and gas company with operations and
assets in nine countries
• Exploration, development and production
portfolio - key infrastructure assets in Africa
• Oil production in Equatorial Guinea,
Republic of Congo (Brazzaville) and Tunisia
22 oil and gas licences
• Average production of 7,100 bopd in Q4
6 producing fields 2012
9 potentially commercial • 38.1 mmboe in 1P reserves, 55.7 in 2P
discoveries
reserves and 142 in contingent resources
Operator of 11 licences
• 124 employees in Tunisia, the UK and
Sweden
• The share, convertible bond and SEK bond
Production are listed on NASDAQ OMX in Stockholm
Development
Exploration
Infrastructure hub
3
4. Changes in Reserves and Resources 2012
Proven and probable reserves* KEY COMMENTS:
Working Net • Improved 1P to 2P ratio from 65 to 68%
Interest Entitlement • 1P reserves impacted by;
• Increase of 1P volume for the Aseng field
1P/P90 2P/P50 1P/P90 2P/P50 (1.03 mmboe) and the Tunisian fields (1.0
25.9 40.4 mmboe) based on production performance
End 2011: 39.1 60.2
• Reduction for Azurite of 0.15 mmboe
• 2P reserves impacted primarily by;
Production -2.9 -2.9 -2.1 -2.1 • Downwards revision of Azurite reserves by
2.9 mmboe on a working interest based
Revision +1.9 -1.6 +1.3 -1.4
• Upwards revision of the producing Tunisian
fields (1 mmboe)
End 2012: 38.1 55.7 25.1 36.9 • Resources approximately unchanged
• Contingent resources of 142 mmboe (145)
* Reserves are classified accordingly to the SPE-PRMS 2007 guideline • Risked prospective resources of 406 mmboe
(409) at a mid-case level
4
6. Production and sales
Average production per country (bopd)
12 000 bopd Full-year Q4 February
10 000 2012 2012 2013
8 000 West Africa 5,600 4,900 4,700
6 000
North Africa 2,300 2,200 2,000
4 000
2 000 Group Total 7,900 7,100 6,700
0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2011 2011 2011 2011 2012 2012 2012 2012
Congo: Azurite EG: Aseng Tunisia: Didon & Onshore
• ASENG: Average production level increased of
60,500 boepd in Q4 (3,400 net to PA Resources)
Average sales price (USD/bbl)
140 • AZURITE: Production lower than expected due
117 113
119
110
to intermittently unstable flowing conditions on a
120 109 108 109
106
120
number of wells
100 109 109 109
97
106 104 106 • TUNISIA: Stable production
80
60
• PRICE: PA Resources realised price slightly
under Brent average for the quarter due to local
40
discount in Tunisia
20
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2011 2011 2011 2011 2012 2012 2012 2012
PA Resources Brent
6
7. Q4 - after one-offs and set-off issue
SEK million Q4 Q4 Tax and Set-off Q4
2012 One-offs FX effects effects adjusted KEY COMMENTS
Revenue 466,801 466,801
• Relinquishment of UK licenses
amounted to SEK 18 million.
Cost of sales &
-201,046 -201,046
other expenses
• After total Azurite impairment in Q3,
Depreciation & WD -256,752 169,226 -87,526 all additional investments has been
Operating profit 9,003 169,226 178,229 treated as direct costs, amounting
to SEK 151 million in Q4
Financial revenue 1,908 1,908
Financial expenses -195,697 22,000 84,762 -88,935 • Q4 fx effects in financial net SEK
-22 million mainly related to NOK
Total financial items -193,789 0 22,000 84,762 -87,027
• New assessment on deductible
costs in Equatorial Guinea increa-
Profit before income
-184,786 169,226 22,000 84,762 91,202 sed income taxes with approx. SEK
tax
75 million.
Income tax -154,797 75,000 -79,797
• Effect from set-off issue (convertible
bond) amounting to SEK 85 million
Profit for the period -339,583 169,226 97,000 84,764 11,405
7
8. Improved cash flow
Q4 Q3 Q4 FY FY
KEY COMMENTS
SEK million 2012 2012 2011 2012 2011
Operating cash flow 175 64 -106 838 812 • Improved operating cash flow
• SEK 838 million for the full year 2012
of which income 0 0 -7 -5 -45 • SEK 175 million in Q4
taxes paid • Higher capex spending in Q4 mainly
CAPEX -186 -16 -135 -255 -1,613 relating to Azurite sidetrack preparations
• Amortisations of SEK 568 million for full
year
Financing activities 65 -51 36 -568 -408
• Full year net cash flow of SEK 15 million
Net cash flow 54 -2 -204 15 -1,209
8
9. Capex 2012 and forecast 2013
Capex development and forecast (SEK million)
KEY COMMENTS
Actual Forecasted • Capex in Q4 amounted to SEK 186 million
1 800
1 600
• Azurite investments of SEK 151 million fully
1,613 expensed in Q4
1 400
1 200 • 2012 full year capex of SEK 255 million, at
1 000
the lower end of the forecast range of SEK
240 – 275 million
800
600 • 2013 forecast of SEK 250 – 380 million,
400
presuming maintained interest (no farm-outs)
200 250-380
255
0
2011 2012 2013
9
11. Strengthened financial position
Completed two-step transaction strengthens equity with approx. SEK 1.570 billion
Set-off issue
1
» Offer to convertible bondholders to set-off their convertible bonds against newly
issued shares at SEK 0.15
» Equity increased with SEK 968 million and nominal debt decreased with SEK 890
million (net debt reduced by 819 MSEK)
Fully underwritten rights issue
» Fully underwritten rights issue at SEK 0.10 (~50% directed to old share holders and
~50% to convertible bondholders)
2 » Increases equity by SEK 604 million after transaction related costs and reduces net
debt by SEK 602 million
» Outcome of transactions to result in significant changes in shareholder structure
Covenants and Net Debt development
Pro forma Q4 2012 Q3 2012 Q2 2012 Covenants
Book Equity (SEK million) 2, 194 1 590 956 2,608 >2,000
Book Equity to
46% 37% 22% 43% >40%
Capital Employed
Net debt (SEK million) 2 028 2 630 3,410 3,503 N/A
11
13. PA Resources way forward
>> LONG TERM GROWTH
Development of ~ 32 mmboe for
2013 - 2018 long-term production growth
Development of
prioritised projects
with reduced risk >> BALANCED INVESTMENTS
Farm-out of assets reducing invest-
ments and risk, financing from
production and debt financing at lower
level
13
14. Business plan – development for future growth
Operating cash flow and » Cash flow from producing assets to finance operational expenditures at
strengthened liquidity enables the Aseng and Didon fields
maintenance, financing and » Strengthened balance sheet, in combination with new debt financing,
amortisations enables planned amortizations of bond loans and credit facilities
» Farm-out processes ongoing to reduce interest in prioritised assets
• Zarat license in Tunisia (Elyssa, Zarat and Didon)
Lower interest reduces • 12/06 in Denmark (Broder Tuck and Lille John)
the level of investment and risk » Reduced risk exposure to individual projects and share of investment
» Strengthened balance sheet enhances position for future transactions
» Cash flow from producing fields combined with new debt financing
enables development of ~32 mmboe to production from 2016-2018
Development of » Advance Broder Tuck in Denmark and Zarat in Tunisia towards into
prioritised assets for development. Progress the appraisal of Lille John in Denmark , Elyssa in
long-term production growth Tunisia and Diega in EG towards development
» Maintain debt level near post-transaction level during investment phase
Selective exploration to further » Active and selective exploration activities to further expand the
discovered resource base - few scheduled commitment wells in the
expand the resource base
coming two years
14
15. Investments and key assumptions
Capex forecast 2013-2018 before and KEY ASSUMPTIONS:
after farm out transactions (SEK million)
Development is not progressed until farm-out
1 800 successful
1 600 • Continued operational expenditures on
1 400
producing fields
1 200 • Development of existing reserves and
970
resources of 155 MMBOE will after farm-out
1 000
add 30 MMBOE
800 1,613
300
• Farm-out of prioritised assets to reach
600 680
preferred working interest level and reduce risk
400 520 on individual assets
540 590
200 • Zarat licence from 100% to 20%
255 270
170 230 0 • Didon field from 100%% to 50%
0
2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E • 12/06 from 64% to 15%
PA Resources' share of investments Partners' share of investments • Present operatorship in farm-out assets
secures development planning
• Oil price of 110 USD/bbl and USD/SEK of 6.53
15
16. Expected outcome of planned development
Estimated development of net debt
and average production KEY ASSUMPTIONS:
5,0 16 000
• Development of existing
14 000 reserves adding after farm-out
4,0
30 MMBOE for long-term
12 000
production growth
3,0
barrels per day
10 000
SEK billion
• Debt maintained around
2,0 8 000 current level
1,0
6 000 • Expected net cash position in
4 000
2018
0,0
2 000
-1,0 0
2010 2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E
Net debt actual Production Net debt estimate
16
18. Capex forecast 2013/2014 – drilling programme
Drilling programme/planned wells 2013-2014
Capex forecast 2013 includes:
DK: 12/06 Lille John 2013/2014 Appraisal/1-2 • Drilling campaign on 12/06 high priority
• Drilling on 12/06, Block H and Q7/10a
Will Scarlet 2013/2014 Exploration/1
dependent on rig availability
Appraisal/ • Drilling campaign in Block I in EG
EG: Block I Block I 2013
Exploration/1-2
• Maintenance investments on producing
fields
EG: Block H Aleta 2013 Exploration/1
• Elyssa well assumes successful farm-out
of Zarat license
Q4 Appraisal/
NL: Q7/10a Q7-FA
2013/2014 Development/1 • The drilling programme is revised
continuously based on the capex budget
Tunisia: Zarat Elyssa 2013/2014 Appraisal/1 and prioritised commitments
Tunisia: Makthar 2014 Exploration/1
18
19. EG Block I - Plateau continues at foundation asset
PA Resources 5.7%
• First oil from Aseng in November 2011, plateau level of
around 60,000 bopd sustained since March 2012
• Total field production since start in November 2011 of
~27 mmbo + 1.5 million barrels to PA Resources
• Average production of 60,500 bopd in Q4,
3,400 net to PA Resources
• 1P reserves upgrade substantially replaces 2012 production
• Profitable barrels
• Investments of SEK 500 million recovered in 2012
• Opex per barrel will reduce after Alen commencement
• 6-9 liftings per quarter generate frequent cash flow
• Alen field development – first oil expected in Q3 2013
Licence Group: Operator Noble Energy (38%), Atlas
Petroleum Int. (27.55%), Glencore (23.75%), PA Resources
(5.7%), GEPetrol (5%)
19
20. EG Block I - Exciting near term drilling program
PA Resources 5.7%
Block I
• Firm 2013 drilling programme with Atwood Hunter rig
• Progressing two exciting fields towards development
• Carla North and South
• 2011 discovery in adjacent Block O (’Carla North’)
currently being appraised in Block O, where operator
has announced additional oil reservoir found
Carla South
• Operator has announced plans for fast-track
development tied back to Aseng vessel
• Atwood Hunter rig will shortly move to Block I to
spud Carla South exploration well on same trend
as Carla North
• Diega
• Expect appraisal well and 3 to 4 week production
test in Block I later in 2013
• Operator estimates Diega P75-P25 gross resource Licence Group: Operator Noble Energy (38%), Atlas
range of 65-116 mmboe Petroleum Int. (27.55%), Glencore (23.75%), PA Resources
(5.7%), GEPetrol (5%)
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21. Tunisia Zarat & Elyssa – Gas Market pull on development
PA Resources Operator with 100%
Historic Gas Demand Demand - Supply Shortfall
600
544
~5% CAGR
502 900
500 477 96
435 86
75 800
Gas Consumption (mmcfd)
408 410
396 47
400 380
25 29
58
68
48
49 Demand
23 72 700 ~3% CAGR
63 70 68
45 50
74
71 outstrips
Natural Gas (mmcfd)
300
54 59 61 63 68 600 Supply
500
from
200
329 2012
280 297
240 241 250 244 248 400 onwards
100
300
-
200
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
STEG IPP Industries (HP) Other (MP & BP) 100
-
Historic & Forecasted Gas Supply 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
700 Demand Supply
Note: Forecast supply does not include production from Zarat and Elyssa
600
fields
500
Production (mmcfd)
400
300
200
100
-
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Algerian Gas Miskar Hasdrubal El Franig Baguel
Chergui Adam Fields Oued Zar Maamoura and Baraka
Jbel Grouz Chouech Es Saida South Tunisia Gas Project Other
Source: STEG 2012
21
22. Tunisia Zarat & Elyssa - Beneficial economic environment
Linkage of domestic gas price to oil price... …generates strong gas price for the project
International Gas Prices Regional Gas Prices
• Gas price enshrined in Tunisian Law 14
11.90
12
• Formula is tied to 85% of Mediterranean high
11.00 10.83
9.63
sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) price 10 9.18
US$ / mcf
• Assuming USD 90/bbl long term oil price, resultant 8
~6.00
Tunisian gas price is c. USD 11/mcf 6
4.22
• Assuming USD 100/bbl long term oil price, resultant 4
2.4
2.24
Tunisian gas price is c. USD 12/mcf 2
-
Tunisia Asia TTF NBP Henry Libya Israel Egypt
Hub (EPSA)
Fiscal Incentives…. …results in Government share of profit comparable to OECD
~75% ~77%
• Full recovery of exploration and development ~58% ~60% ~60% ~62% ~64%
expenditure
• Partial recovery of financing costs
• One of the most attractive E&P fiscal regimes in
North Africa
Americas Tunisia OECD Middle Asia- North Sub-
East Pacific Africa Saharan
Africa
Source: Wood Mackenzie, Bloomberg, Factset
22
23. Tunisia Onshore Potential - Makthar and Jelma
PA Resources 100%
Makthar and Jelma permits
• Jelma-Makthar permits surround producing NW Maiza
Douleb, Semmama and Tamesmida (DST) fields
onshore Tunisia Makthar permit
• Both permits cover areas of 7,216 km² and 3,828
km²
• Jelma extended until 2016 and Makthar until 2014 Friha
Boughanem
• Makthar permit contains several onshore
exploration prospects Jelma permit
• Regional mapping of reservoirs, seals and source
rock formations over both permits completed
• Awarded open acreage around Douleb (189km2) Douleb & Semmama
as integrated into Makthar permit
• New seismic to be acquired over Makthar’s most
promising prospects and leads in 2013 to mature
prospect for commitment well in 2014
Licence Group: Operator PA Resouces 100%
ETAP has a back-in right of up to 55%
23
24. Denmark 12/06 - Progressing discoveries
PA Resources Operator with 64%
Broder Tuck
• High quality Middle Jurassic reservoir proved by wells
• Mid to high case assessment of c. 25-50 mmboe gross
of contingent resources including liquids
• Technical and commercial studies continuing with focus
on eliminating need for further appraisal drilling
• Ongoing discussions with owners of infrastructure for tie 12/06 Broder Tuck-2
back as one of range of possible development concepts
Lille John-1
Lille John
• Wells established 35 API oil in Miocene sandstone
B20008-73
at c. 900m – exceptionally light oil for shallow depth
• Remaining deeper potential likely – Chalk and Middle
Jurassic
• Efforts to locate available rig for appraisal drilling continue
in tight rig market Licence Group: Operator PA Resources (64%),
• Development options dependent on appraisal results – Nordsøfonden (20%), Spyker Energy (8%), Danoil (8%)
successful appraisal could lead to tieback to nearby
infrastructure or standalone development
24
25. Denmark 12/06 - Exploration and appraisal potential
PA Resources Operator with 64%
12/06 Prospectivity Broder Tuck (Chalk) 5 km’s
• Existing U-1X Chalk
• Prospects at Miocene, Chalk & discovery
Middle Jurassic levels ~ 5-10 mmbo
• Commitments fulfilled, 2 year
extension to 2014
• Follow-on potential in German Broder Tuck (Jurassic)
licence B20008-73 • M. Jurassic gas /
condensate discovery
~25 – 50 mmboe
Will Scarlet
12/06
• Tertiary prospect Lille John (Miocene)
supported by seismic BT-1 • Shallow oil discovery
anomaly per Lille John requires appraisal
• Low to moderate risk • If appraisal is successful:
10-50 mmbo ~10-50 mmbo
Lille John area Lille John area
• Additional small, low • Additional potential in Chalk
risk Tertiary and Middle Jurassic
anomalies • Currently reprocessing 3D
• Low risk 2-10 mmbo LJ-1 • Moderate risk, potential size
comparable to Lille John
= Planned/possible wells 2013/2014
25
26. Germany B20008-73 - Farm-out
PA Resources Operator with 90%
Licence B20008/73
• Danish and Dutch sector prospectivity extends
onto B20008-73
• Danoil farming in for 10% (subject to regulatory
Broder Tuck
approvals)
• PA Resources’ 2011 Danish discoveries are seen Lille John
to upgrade prospectivity of B20008-73 Regnar
• Currently evaluating existing 3D over block and
Vagn
adjacent areas
Tove
Hanze
Licence Group: Operator PA Resources (90%),
Danoil (10% subject to regulatory approvals)
26
27. UK 22/19a - Undeveloped field in Central North Sea
PA Resources Operator with 50%
Discovered resources on 22/19a
• Application group PA Resources 50% (Operator),
First Oil & Gas Limited 50%, notified that award
will be made.
• 22/19-1 Fiddich Triassic gas condensate discovery
(1984) flowed 15 mmcfg/d and ~1500 bcpd
• Fiddich discovery and low risk Fiddich East
segment – several 10’s mmboe combined
• Key issue – minimum economic reserve size and
availability of options for tieback
Application group: PA Resources 50% (Operator),
First Oil & Gas Limited 50%.
27
28. Summary and outlook
>> OPERATING CASH FLOW FROM PRODUCING FIELDS
Important cash flow with profitable barrels from the Aseng field
– foundation for growth
>> STRENGTHENED FINANCIAL POSITION
Capacity to finance development capex and planned amortisations,
enhanced position for future transactions
>> EXPLORATION AND APPRAISAL WITH UPSIDE POTENTIAL
Drilling activites on prioritised assets - Block I campaign in 2013
and 12/06 campaign possibly in 2013 or 2014
>> FOCUS ON ADDING LONG TERM PRODUCTION GROWTH
Focus on farm out of prioritised assets and development – 32 MMBOE
PA Resources net participation - expected net cash position in 2018
28