Identifies key forces that are driving the need for resilient as well as sustainable resilient energy infrastructure. The presentation argues that work need greater technology innovation to support RSI (resilient, sustainable infrastructure).

1. GE
Resilience
Global imperatives for 2013 and beyond
Peter Evans, PhD
Director
Global Strategy & Analytics
Mesh San Francisco
April 25, 2013
General Electric © 2013 – All Rights Reserved

2. Global shocks
Global economy confronts major disruptions
Global economy
Recent shocks
Financial
European debt
crisis
Natural disasters
GDP growth
Japan earthquake
and tsunami
Social/political
unrest
‘Arab Spring’
Source: Oxford Economics Outlook, August 2011 and various media reports
GE Confidential & Proprietary Information. GE © 2011 – All Rights Reserved
2

3. US Natural Disasters - Energy Impacts
Hurricane Sandy
October 2012
Category 1 hurricane.
Second-costliest hurricane in US history
55%
Key East Coast oil
refining capacity
shutdown
• 0.6 million barrels per day
production loss through refinery
shut downs or reduced runs.
• Two refineries were shutdown,
and one refinery reduced runs
due to hurricane Sandy.
>10
>$50
Customers lost
power
In total estimated
damages
Million
• Millions lost power across 21
states.
• New Jersey was the most
badly impacted with 10% of
customers without power –
while other states saw less than
3% of their customers suffer
electricity outages.
Billion
Other impacts:
• More than 600,000 cars could be
damaged.
• According to IHS Global Insight.
Sandy could cause about $20 billion
in property damages and between
$10 billion and $30 billion in lost
business.
3
Source: U.S. Department of Energy; EIA
GE © 2013 – All Rights Reserved

4. Rising economic cost of disasters
Over $160 billion in overall losses in 2012
Top 3 largest natural catastrophes*
1
2
3
Hurricane Sandy, USA
October 2012
Overall losses: $50bn
Insured losses: $25bn
Drought: Midwest USA
June-September 2012
Overall losses: $20bn
Insured losses: $15-17bn
Earthquake, Italy
May 2012
Overall losses: $16bn
Insured losses: $1.6bn
Note: Ranked by overall losses; Source: Munich Re NatCatService 2013
4

5. Global generation units with water stress*
Medium to extremely-high stress
*Notes: Includes thermal and hydro plants. For visualization purposes,
plants with design capacity less than 100 MW are not shown.
Source: Platts UDI Database 2012 and WRI Aqueduct data
Over 26,000 units are in areas of medium to extremely-high water stress
5

6. Water-reliant generation units
Percentage residing in areas of medium to extremely-high water stress
USA
49%
China
51%
India
66%
*Notes: Includes thermal and hydro plants.
Source: Platts UDI Database 2012 and WRI Aqueduct data
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6
APONTE− CSIS Conference 2013

7. Cities at high risk around the world
Exposure to multiple natural hazards*
Hazards
*Risks to cyclones,
droughts,
earthquakes,
floods, landslides,
and volcanic
eruptions
*Notes: Includes cities with more than 750,000 inhabitants in 2011.
Source: UN DESA/Population Division, World Urbanization Prospects: The 2011 Revision
~60% of major cities/ ~1 billion people at risk to at least 1 major natural disaster
7

8. World-wide natural disaster trend
Annual rate of over 800 events in recent years
Number of events
Source: Munich Re, January 2012
8
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9. 12,000
Number of world-wide disasters
likely in the next 15 years*
*Assumes continuation of current trend rate of 800+ natural disasters per year
GE © 2013 – All Rights Reserved

10. Resilience…
the ability to bounce
back faster after a stress or shock,
endure greater stress or shock, and/or
minimize the impact of a stress or shock.
10
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11. Growing attention to resilience
Selected list of organizations and programs
Colorado State Univ.
Institute for Society, Landscape &
Ecosystem Change
UK Energy Research Centre
“Building a Resilient UK Energy
System” (2009)
Stockholm Resilience Centre
National Academies
“Disaster Resilience: A National
Imperative” (2012)
Univ. of British Columbia
Institute for Resources,
Environment & Sustainability
Sandia National Laboratories
“Energy, Climate & Infrastructure
Security”
Durham Univ.
Institute of Hazard,
Risk & Resilience
Asian Disaster Preparedness Center
“. . . sustainable development through
disaster risk reduction”
EU
European Network & Information
Security Agency, “Critical Information
Infrastructure Protection and Resilience”
United Nations
Division of Sustainable Development;
Rural Resilience Initiative;
International Strategy for Disaster Reduction;
“World Risk Report” (2011)
World Bank
“Planning for Urban Resilience in the Face of
Disasters” (2012);
“Climate Resilient Cities” (2008)
Rockefeller Foundation
Asian Cities Climate Change
Resilience Network
Australian Govt.
“Critical Infrastructure Resilience
Strategy” (2010); Trusted
Information Sharing Network
Source: Various media reports, 2013
11

12. Managing shocks
Before, during and after
Critical
Assets
Risk Mitigation
Recovery
Disaster
Response
Preparation
Business continuity
Time
Source: Adapted from World Economic Forum, “A Vision for Managing Natural Disaster Risk”, April 2011
Supporting business continuity is a growing need
12
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13. Building resilience
1
Diversification
2
Intelligence
3
Couple / decouple
Networks
Fleets
Facilities
4
Pooling/ coordination
5
Redundancy
Machines
13
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14. Resilient-sustainable infrastructure (RSI)
Green + robust = RSI
H
Greener
Status
Quo
Environmental
footprint
reduction
“RSI”
Robust
L
L
Resilient
H
Source: GE Energy, Global Strategy and Planning, 2012
14
GE © 2013 – All Rights Reserved

15. Innovating for Resilience
New products and business models
CROSS THE
CHASM
3
GET TO
MARKET
Innovation
SCALE THE
BUSINESS
4
RUN THE
BUSINESS
EXIT METRICS
2
EXIT METRICS
EXIT METRICS
1
EXIT METRICS
ACTIVATE
INCUBATE
5
OPTIMIZE THE
BUSINESS
Commercialization
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15 /

16. Digital…crowdsourcing resilience
Mobilizing ‘digital volunteers’
Digital Tools & Platforms
Maps & Coordination
Medical care/ shelter
Damage Assessments
Financial assistance
Allocation of skills
and expertise
16

17. Fukushima’s digital response
Timeline of 2011 events and digital response
March 11
March 12
1 day
March 14
April 8
2 days
25 days
Events
Earthquake
Nuclear
Accidents
Mandatory
Power cuts
Start
Power cuts
End
Examples of Digital Response Systems
Crisis Response
website (Mar 11)
IPhone person
finder (Mar 16)
GIS tools for Shelter
Info (Mar 12)
Volunteer platform &
relief supply matching
system (Mar 12)
Baby refugee evacuation
tools (Mar 20)
GIS tools for Traffic
Info (Mar 14)
Animal/pet finder
(Mar 13)
Scheduled poweroutage info (Mar 13)
Radioactivity info
systems (Mar 15)
Volunteer
info (Apr 25)
Power forecast
(Mar 23)
17
Source: Adapted from Utani A, Mizumoto T, Okumura T,“How Geeks Responded to a Catastrophic Disaster of a High-Tech Country,” ACM SWID 2011

18. Product Innovation:
Fast
backup
power:
GE’s FastPower delivers a fully
functional, onsite power plant
Rapid deployment and integration technologies
add or replace energy assets world-wide

19. Software Innovation:
Deployment of intelligent automation of grid
networks to reduce customer outages
Distribution automation… Recloser Control System (URC) enables the
efficient recovery of distribution system networks
1
Source: General Electric, 2012
19
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20. What’s next… the missing pieces
Call to Action
Identify and implement measures that ensure that critical infrastructure is
resilient as well as sustainable.
Close governance and policy gaps
Enhance coordination across government bodies responsibility for
sustainability on the one hand and natural hazards preparedness on the other
at the local, state and international levels.
Accelerate innovation
Devise new policy architecture and incentives to advance technologies that
provide resilient and sustainable infrastructure in US and globally.
Page 20

21. GE
Resilience
Business imperatives for 2013 and beyond
Peter Evans, PhD
Director
Global Strategy & Analytics
Mesh San Francisco
April 25, 2013