Mais conteúdo relacionado Semelhante a Climate Modeling – A Guide to Investment (20) Mais de Oswar Mungkasa (20) Climate Modeling – A Guide to Investment 1. Cli d lli idClimate modelling: A guide to
investment decisions
Vicky Pope
Met Office Hadley Centre
2. The impact of a global temperature rise
of 4 ºCof 4 C
Change in temperature from pre‐industrial climate
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Melting
ice
Methane
release
M
Ocean
Reduced
crops
Forest
Increased
drought
More
heatwaves
Ocean
Acidification
Rainforest
loss
Forest
fire Stronger
tropical storms
Current City population • 3‐10 million • 10‐20 million© Crown copyright Met Office
6. Changes in rain and snowfall in the high
mountains of South Asiamountains of South Asia
Himachal Pradesh East Nepal &
W E
Summer precipitation (Indian monsoon)Winter precipitation (Western disturbances)
NW
JK
000 2050 2100
HP
1950 2000 2050 2100
-2
0
2
4
6
NB
1950 2000 2050 2100
-2
0
2
4
6
JK
000 2050 2100
HP
1950 2000 2050 2100
-10
0
10
20
30
40
NB
1950 2000 2050 2100
-10
0
10
20
30
40
JK
000 2050 2100
HP
1950 2000 2050 2100
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
NB
1950 2000 2050 2100
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
JK
000 2050 2100
HP
1950 2000 2050 2100
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
NB
1950 2000 2050 2100
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
Karakoram Hindu Kush Jammu‐Kashmir
Himachal Pradesh,
Uttarakhand & West Nepal
East Nepal &
Bhutan
ion mm/day
JK
000 2050 2100
HP
1950 2000 2050 2100
-2
0
2
4
6
NB
1950 2000 2050 2100
-2
0
2
4
6
JK
000 2050 2100
HP
1950 2000 2050 2100
-10
0
10
20
30
40
NB
1950 2000 2050 2100
-10
0
10
20
30
40
JK
000 2050 2100
HP
1950 2000 2050 2100
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
NB
1950 2000 2050 2100
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
JK
000 2050 2100
HP
1950 2000 2050 2100
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
NB
1950 2000 2050 2100
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
nge in precipitat
JK
000 2050 2100
HP
1950 2000 2050 2100
-2
0
2
4
6
NB
1950 2000 2050 2100
-2
0
2
4
6
JK
000 2050 2100
HP
1950 2000 2050 2100
-10
0
10
20
30
40
NB
1950 2000 2050 2100
-10
0
10
20
30
40
JK
000 2050 2100
HP
1950 2000 2050 2100
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
NB
1950 2000 2050 2100
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
JK
000 2050 2100
HP
1950 2000 2050 2100
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
NB
1950 2000 2050 2100
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
Chanday
Karakoram
JK
000 2050 2100
HP
1950 2000 2050 2100
-2
0
2
4
6
NB
1950 2000 2050 2100
-2
0
2
4
6
JK
000 2050 2100
HP
1950 2000 2050 2100
-10
0
10
20
30
40
NB
1950 2000 2050 2100
-10
0
10
20
30
40
JK
000 2050 2100
HP
1950 2000 2050 2100
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
NB
1950 2000 2050 2100
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
JK
000 2050 2100
HP
1950 2000 2050 2100
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
NB
1950 2000 2050 2100
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
n snowfall mm/d
JK
000 2050 2100
HP
1950 2000 2050 2100
-2
0
2
4
6
NB
1950 2000 2050 2100
-2
0
2
4
6
JK
000 2050 2100
HP
1950 2000 2050 2100
-10
0
10
20
30
40
NB
1950 2000 2050 2100
-10
0
10
20
30
40
JK
000 2050 2100
HP
1950 2000 2050 2100
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
NB
1950 2000 2050 2100
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
JK
000 2050 2100
HP
1950 2000 2050 2100
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
NB
1950 2000 2050 2100
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
Change in
Time ‐ Met Office model ‐ MPI model
11. Example of seasonal prediction of
reservoir management
Lake Volta dam Akosombo
g
Ghana
Lake Volta dam, Akosombo
• 1000MWatt facility: provides ~50% of
Ghana’s electricity
Lake
Volta
• Rainfall has strong seasonal dependency:
peak months June‐September
• Inflow prediction needed to assess likely
requirement for oil‐fired generation
• …thus lake‐level is monitored closely!…thus lake level is monitored closely!
© Crown copyright Met Office
12. Summary
• Useful risk based climate information forUseful risk based climate information for
adaptation ‐ e.g. River Nile, Hamalayas
• Long range forecasts for decision tools MoreLong range forecasts for decision tools. More
skilful in some regions and aggregated over
regions such as large water catchments – Voltaregions such as large water catchments Volta
• ‘Seamless prediction’ addresses climate
variability and changevariability and change
• Integrated approach provides environmental
information for decision makinginformation for decision making
© Crown copyright Met Office