Dr. Hal Batchelder's 2012-14 Oregon Sea Grant-supported research project

1. Project Title: Realized and Potential larval
connectivity along the Oregon Coast
Hal Batchelder1, Bill Peterson2, & Jennifer Fisher2
With Contributions from John Osborne (CEOAS Grad. Student) 1
1
CEOAS, 104 CEOAS Admin Bldg, OSU, Corvallis, OR
2
CIMRS, Hatfield Marine Science Center, Newport, OR

2. Multiple Uses Cape Falcon
and Marine
Spatial Cascade Head
Planning
Otter Rock
MSP in Oregon Cape Perpetua
Cape Arago
Redfish Rock Inner
Redfish Rock Outer

3. Realized Larval Connectivity (RLC) is the number of observed
larvae that travel from a specific spawning site to a specific
destination site.
RLC is rarely known because the numbers of larvae at time and
location of spawning are not known and matching recruits in a
specific destination site back to a specific site of origin in situ is
difficult; can be done with otolith chemistry, genetics for some
species.
More commonly we estimate (using model simulations):
Potential Larval Connectivity (PLC), which is the probability of
larval transport from a spawning site to a destination site.

4. A Simple Potential Connectivity Example
Two Marine Reserves (A & B) providing refuge for
Adult Organisms A
One type of connectivity is to estimate PLC between A
and B over some time interval
Δto Δ Δtd
T
d o
A B 1000 0.227 227
o d
1000 0.056 56
But, the real world isn’t simple…
B
PLC = func {Δto, Δtd , ΔT, T,Ao,Ad}
ΔT = func {uv,°T, Mixing, M, Life History, Behavior}
T = func {year, day of year}

5. And, we are interested in more than
the connection among reserves… U1
Reserves are intended to provide spillover of adults to
nearby regions (which can be fished), and so that they A
provide new recruits to other suitable habitats outside
of the borders of the reserves.
Suppose: Mid-summer release of U2
d o 1000 individuals from both A and B
A B
o d
U3
Destination
Origin U1 A U2 U3 B U4 Sum
A 5 35 63 300 227 10 640
B 0 0 0 24 56 150 230
B
More larvae from A recruit to B than do larvae from B
Note assumption of equal larval supply at A & B U4

6. Potential connectivity assumes equal
source strength everywhere… U1
What if we know that 10X more larvae are produced at
B than at A A
Suppose: Mid-summer release of U2
d o 1000 individuals from A and 10000
A individuals from B
B
o d
U3
Destination
Origin U1 A U2 U3 B U4 Sum
A 5 35 63 300 227 10 640
B 0 0 0 240 560 1500 2300
B
More larvae from B recruit to B than do larvae from A,
or B is largely self-seeding.
U4

7. Realized larval connectivity assumes
knowledge of abundances of larvae U 1
produced or recruited (usually)…
A
These estimates are hard to know
d o through space and time. Instead,
A what can we say about realized
B connectivity if we know the spatial U2
o d
and temporal distribution of larvae
in the plankton (from net samples)?
U3
Can we robustly estimate
both the site of origin and
the likely destination of
meroplanktonic larvae B
captured in plankton tows?
And thereby construct
realized connectivity maps?
U4

8. 48° N
La Push
Observations
Washington
Queets River • Newport Line biweekly sampling
since 1996 (17 years)
47° N Grays Harbor
• Large-scale Plankton sampling
Willapa Bay June and September since 1998
(15 years)
Columbia River
46° N
Oregon
• Data we will use:
Cape Falcon
• Newport biweekly plankton
Cape Meares
(2009 – 2011)
• Large-scale plankton
45° N Cascade Head
(2010 – 2011)
Newport
^
_
Cape Perpetua
126° W 125° W 124° W 123° W

9. Crab Larvae Barnacle Larvae
Cancer magister Zoeae stage I
Lophopanopeus bellus Zoeae stage I
Balanus crenatus Nauplii and Cyprid
Hemigrapsus spp. Pachygrapsus crassipes Megalopae

10. Realized Connectivity
48° N
La Push • Using hindcast physics from
Washington the data assimilating real-time
Queets River Oregon physics forecast model
and info on abundance &
47° N Grays Harbor distribution of meroplanktonic
lifestages of barnacles and crabs
Willapa Bay
• identify most probable
source regions (PDs)
46° N
Columbia River and dates of larvae
Oregon production using
Cape Falcon backward time
Cape Meares trajectory modeling
45° N Cascade Head
• identify most likely
destinations of larvae
Newport
using forward time
trajectory modeling
^
_
Cape Perpetua
126° W 125° W 124° W 123° W

11. Outcomes
1) Identification of source and probable destinations of
larvae using particle-tracking methods, robust physical
representations of ocean circulation, and life history
information (incl. depth behaviors of larvae).
2) Results will provide guidance to monitoring and
assessment efforts to characterize the the efficacy of
OR MR/MPA network. Identification of gaps that might
inhibit successful MR/MPA networks.
3) Informal collaboration with CA SG funded PIs (Steve
Morgan/Chris Edwards) on similar connectivity project
will extend understanding of factors driving larval
dispersal, supply and connectivity to most of the
CCLME.

12. Outreach plan
Dissemination of results
• Working with Jeff Feldner, we will determine the most
effective avenue for communicating our results
• Meetings with targeted resource managers, public meetings,
etc.
HMSC exhibit
• We will consult with Bill Hanshumaker on the
development of a display about coastal connectivity and
marine reserves; it will compliment the existing exhibit
on larval dispersal of oysters in Yaquina Bay (Emily
Lemagie and Jim Lerczak)
• Fall 2012- a static display along with hands-on ‘activities’ will
be installed
• FY2013- an intern will evaluate the efficacy of our display and
will outline deficiencies and ways to better overlap with the
existing exhibits
• FY2013- improvements to the display will be made and an
intern will assist in transitioning from a static display to a
video display