Instructed by Crispin Sheridan.

1. Beyond the Last Click:
Smart Multi-Channel
Attribution Modeling
Crispin Sheridan
Senior Director, Global Search, SAP

2. SAP Today
Annual revenue (IFRS) of € 16,22 billion
• More than 232,000 customers in 188 countries
• More than 65,667 employees – and locations
in more than130 countries
• A 41-year history of innovation and growth
Search managed centrally
SEO: 70+ countries
PPC: 50+ Countries funded centrally
SAP.com Site Search
SAP.com Test Lab
500,000 pages, Search Team: 12 + 5
Agencies

3. >86%
of the world’s
athletic
footwear
provided
>50%
of the world’s
packages
couriered
>70%
of the world’s
chocolate
production
>30
million
households use
energy more
responsibly with
Smart Grid
solutions
>77,000
people work
more safely
using People
Safety
solutions
>2
million
people work
more safely
using People
Safety
solutions
SAP Customer
Facts…

4. SAP’s Attribution Issues
• Long sales cycles
• Multiple individuals
• Interacting with all media types
• Multiple platforms
• Significant spend on Pull & Push
marketing
So! What is the Customer journey?

5. Digital Journeys with SAP
Prior to Conversion
1
2
3
Touch 1 Touch 2 Touch 3 Touch 4

6. Multiple Sources –
Multiple Paths
Source: Strategic Oxygen – now Forrester

7. Multiple Individuals –
One Deal
$
Marketing Touch Points

8. Then …..
The customer research team agrees :
“let’s take the next step with SAP”

9. Which Digital Tactics get credit?
The default methods:
Last click
• Unfairly assigns credit to direct or Pull channels (e.g. SEM)
• Emphasizes branded keywords
• Unfairly assigns credit to awareness or Push channels (e.g. banners)
• Assigns credit even within a long look-back window
DCBA
DCBA
First click

10. Challenge: Reports and
analysis by silos
Lead Generation Report:
Tactic Leads
PPC 451
SEO 620
Content Syndication 236
Social Media 134
Display 276
Email 98
Direct to web 502
Mobile site 43
Banners 90
Campaign Microsite 348
Total 2,798
Demonstrative data only

11. Attribution Models to the
Rescue?
Linear • Splits credit evenly for simplicity’s sake
• Value diminishes with more touches
• Potential to be just as misleading as last or first click
25%25%25%25%
• Assigns credit on a curve
• Requires judgment calls/ guesswork
• Few tools do it on the fly
40%10%10%40%
Weighted
• Assigns credit based on length of time passed
• Sophisticated but tricky to code
• Usually requires manual programming
Today
40%
2 days
ago 30%
20 days
ago 20%
40 days
ago 10%
Recency

12. So, Right Attribution Model, but what else?

13. Micro & Macro Elements of
Investment Optimization
MACRO Media Mix Modeling
MICRO
Digital Attribution
Test and Learn

14. So, Lets Focus on Micro &
Digital Attribution
Digital Attribution

15. Multivariate Attribution
Analysis Reveals:
• How channel overlap impact conversion rates
• The true reach and frequency across touch-points
• The contribution of each action, channel, or message
• The optimal sequence of channel exposure to drive a
conversion

16. What is required? TAGS
• Tagging Governance and Process
• Master Tag across all Digital Touch points
• Tag Management system – Adobe, Tealium, etc.
• Tag Manager

17. Channel
Contribution Index
to Conversion A
Banner
Contribution Index
to Conversion A
Messages
Contribution Index
to Conversion A
SEO 150 Discovery 160 Banner A 170
Banner 130 NFL 125 Banner D 150
Social Media 125 ESPN 110 Banner C 98
Online Video 115 CNET 95 Banner F 91
SEM 113 NY Times 85 Banner B 70
Microsite 105 Forbes 50 Banner E 65
Content Page 102
SAP Homepage 95
e.g. Touch contribution is indexed & data is pivoted
Demonstrative data only

18. Volume of Uniques
ConversionRate
ACTION:
Optimize Volume
Initial Results: MIX
Demonstrative data only

19. 0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
0 10 20 30 40 50
Uniques
(000)
Frequency of Exposure
Frequency & Uniques
7-17
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
0 10 20 30 40 50
ConversionRate
Frequency of Exposure
Frequency & Conversion Rate
Finding: Optimal Frequency (for Conversion Rate)
frequency to
conversion
sweet spot
Demonstrative data only
7-17
retarget for more
frequency
sweet spot wasted exposures
cap frequency
Actions:

20. Vehicle Last Touch Attributed Difference
Introducer
Volume Index
Influencer
Volume Index
Closer
Volume Index
Banner 4,634 4,248 -8% 53 104 147
SEO 3,732 3,839 3% 81 121 92
SEM 1,792 2,035 14% 128 99 71
3rd Pty DG Promo 887 924 4% 138 77 90
Social Referral 4 3 -25% 130 83 102
Attribution for Media Vehicles
• Action – re-allocate budgets from Banners to SEM
• Surprisingly, Banners act more as closers & SEM as openers
• SEM gained 14% additional conversion credit because it
indexes very high as an introducer and has high overlap with
other vehicles. Introducers get majority of the credit from the
models.
Low Sample

21. Together these drive
Efficiency & Effectiveness
MACRO Media Mix Modeling
MICRO
Digital Attribution
Test and Learn

22. Key Takeaways
Distinguish between Macro and Micro
optimization
Drive to your most relevant attribution
model (s)
Ensure proper tagging structure (master
tag)
Apply multivariate modeling & testing to
optimize the impact of each tactic

23. Thank you
Crispin Sheridan
Senior Director, Global Search,
SAP