Aetos_monthly_16_US

Mensuel
05.2013 n°16
“To act freely, it is to retake control of one’s life, to put it into a new dimension unconstrained by time” - Henri Bergson
Time to think about alternative worlds
THE GUEST OF THE MONTH: MATHEW J. BURROWS
Dr. Mathew J. Burrows was appointed Counselor to the National Intelligence
Council (NIC) in 2007 and currently manages a staff of senior analysts and production
technicians who guide and shepherd all NIC products, from inception to dissemination.
He also directs the NIC’s Strategic Futures Group. He was the principal drafter for Global
Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds. This publication has received widespread recognition
and praise in the international media and among academics and think tanks.
Dr. Burrows was the first holder of the Intelligence Community Fellowship, and
served at the Council of Foreign Relations in New York. He has also served as special
assistant to the US UN Ambassador, Mr. Richard Holbrooke and as Deputy National
Security Advisor to US Treasury Secretary Paul O’Neill. He is a member of the DI’s Se-
nior Analyst Service. Dr. Burrows joined the Central Intelligence Agency in 1986, where
he served as analyst for the Directorate of Intelligence (DI), covering Western Europe,
including the development of European institutions such as the European Union.
He graduated from Wesleyan University in 1976 and in 1983 received a PhD in
European History from Cambridge University, England. ●
In Greek mythology, the
eagle ( , AETOS) is one
of the attributes of Zeus.
Solar icon, an expression of
combativeness and victory,
master of the air and time,
it goes “higher, faster and
farther” and thus incarnates
the attributes of airpower.
The goal of the CESA
publication is to be a catalyst
for intellectual and personal
exchanges between airmen
and all Defense Department
personnel, as well as decision-
makers from all walks of life,
both public and private.
www.cesa.air.defense.gouv.fr
The 5th
Geopolitics and Geoeconomics Festival took place from the 4th
to the 7th
of April in Grenoble, organized by the Grenoble Ecole supérieure de commerce
(ESC), the Presses universitaires de France (Puf), and the association Anteios. “Excesses,
Threats and Perspectives” of globalization was the theme of this year’s installment of this
unique and now well-established festival. Globalization – a subject that evokes passio-
nate, and sometimes even fantastical analysis – imposes, even more than other subjects,
a certain bird’s eye look. “There are certain aspects of globalization that are undeniable.
However, like every phenomenon that brings change, globalization possesses an obscure part,
a part that is laden with unanswered questions which flow from the complex and vague
post-cold war world,” explains Professor Jean-Marc Huissoud. “Faced with this obscurity
and opacity, it is easy to either accept overly simplistic explanations or to reject it altogether in
the name of the good old days that in fact never really existed.” The festival was opened by
Eric Delbecque (cf. AETOS mensuel n° 2, 11/2011) and brought together thousands of
participants and 120 specialists, both French and international, such as Daniel Cohen,
Gérard-François Dumont, Jean Guisnel, Charles Millon, Pierre Péan and even Xavier
Raufer – the author of the book written for the festival, Géopolitique de la mondialisation
criminelle (Puf, April 2013).
Defined by Yves Lacoste as “the study of power rivalries within a territory,” the initial
concept of geopolitics was that of a tool helping nation-states “go to war.” It has largely
gone behond this limited political and military function, now interesting all types of
decision-makers, notably economic, as well as the public at large – undoubtedly because
it makes a useful contribution to understanding the turbulence of today’s world, where
space doesn’t make sense except in relation to time. According to Jean-François Fiorina,
director of the ESC festival, in the geopolitical analytical note CLES n°100 that was pu-
blished for the festival, “The “territory” of Yves Lacoste is today subordinate – globalization
necessitates it – to a permanent dialectic between the global and the local, the economic and
the political, structure and fluidity. Geopolitics, as a “dynamic analysis of inertias” (Olivier
Zajec), suggests the coming together of “constancy” and “change” within history and space…”
For further reading: www.centregeopolitique.com & http://notes-geopolitiques.com

AETOS mensuel n°16 - May 2013 - www.cesa.air.defense.gouv.fr
struck in my interactions with how much those in China and
elsewhere still look to Western countries for how to construct
innovative and dynamic societies. They contrast, for example,
their own education systems which emphasize rote learning
with Western systems which still lead in creativity and inno-
vation.
In the executive summary, you mentioned the so called
“Black Swans,” as theorized by Nicholas Thaleb. Among
these ones figure a catastrophic pandemic and a “refor-
med” Iran. Do you envisage examining these cases in de-
tail, or more generally, what changes would you like to
make in a future edition?
It’s always hard to figure out what to expand on in each
new edition of Global Trends. We have tried with each new
edition to develop one or more aspects that were shortchan-
ged in earlier versions. In this past one, we developed our
analysis of emerging technologies - something we thought we
had not done a good job in earlier versions. In terms of “black
swans,” we have increasingly developed the scenario sections
and no doubt the next version will explore more deeply one or
two of these wildcards. It is interesting that the very first edi-
tion of GlobalTrends back in 1996-7 spent very little time on
scenarios or wildcards. There is a sentence - which we would
never write today - about continuity being the predominant
trend. Since at least the Global
Trends 2015 edition, we have
made it clear that change inclu-
ding discontinuities - such as
we saw with 9/11 and the 2008
financial crisis - are going to be
more the trend going forward
and not stability and continuity.
The NIC is committed to continuing the quadrennial publi-
cations and I’m quite sure will be publishing a Global Trends
in 2016 after the next presidential election.
In the future, the world’s population will increase to 9
billion people. You foresee an “empowerment” of the in-
dividual or smaller groups through emerging technology.
If this is probable in the short-term, could these new tech-
nologies over the long term lead perversely to a stricter
governmental control of individual life and liberty?
There is a chance that “big data” particularly will provide
governments with greater ability to control individual life and
liberty. We see some of this already in China where hundreds
of thousands of military and internal security have been de-
ployed to monitor use of the internet by the hundreds of mil-
lions with access to the web in China. No other country has
mounted such a large effort. We saw in the Arab Spring that
Mubarak tried shutting down the internet, but that only in-
furiated the demonstrators all the more and triggered outrage
on the outside. Even in China, many Chinese know how to
get around the censorship and restricted sites. I have been
intrigued by the parallels with the emergence of the printing
press which initially favored Protestant dissenters but over
time the Catholic Church learned to exploit it, printing mis-
sionary tracts which were used to convert the heathen in the
New World. In the grand sweep of history, individuals have
In France, “Alternative Worlds” is referred to as “the
world in 2030 according to the CIA.” You have led the
publication of “Global Trends” since the edition in 2000.
What is the role of the National Intelligence Council, and
yours as advisor to the NIC?
The NIC sits on top of all the analytic intelligence agencies
including the CIA and provides what we call estimative intel-
ligence to the President and his senior foreign policy team.
We write the National Intelligence Estimates on Iran or Iraq
or Afghanistan - the critical issues facing the President. These
NIEs or Estimates draw on reporting and analysis produced
by all the intelligence agencies; the draft text of the NIEs is
coordinated among the 16 intelligence agencies before they
are forwarded to the President. The idea is that the President
can get in a single document the most authoritative analysis
from the whole Intelligence Community on most critical to-
pics facing him.
My job as Counselor has been to manage the Analytic and
Production Staff in the NIC which oversees all the NIC pu-
blications - most of which is classified. My staff and I ensure
that all the publications meet the rigorous tradecraft standards
we set for IC analysis. We also make sure the text is readable
and the argumentation is set out clearly and with precision.
As Counselor, I also am responsible for a number of presti-
gious documents that cross the
many regional and functional
disciplines represented in the
NIC. Besides Global Trends
- which is done quadrennially
to coincide with the US presi-
dential year, I also pull together
the Annual Threat Assessment
which the Director of National Intelligence uses as testimony
to Congress early each year.
By publishing GT 2030 “Alternative Worlds,” You out-
lined the general direction of where the world is going. As
things stand today, do you think that changes in the global
structure will continue to accelerate? How does one ima-
gine, anticipate and even more, influence this future world?
I very much believe that changes in the global structure
will continue to accelerate. The developing world was not hit
the way that Western countries were in the 2008 financial cri-
sis. Even with the recent slowdown in economic growth in the
developing world, I would expect that an increasing share of
world GDP will be generated in the developing world. China
presents a particular challenge, in part because of its size but
also because it is not like a Japan or Taiwan or South Korea
which were closely allied to the US and other Western powers.
We saw the smaller Asian tigers integrate easily into Western
structures. With China, it is a different story. It is not as if
the US and China are on an irrevocable path to conflict but
many of our values differ. Partly due to its size, China looks
increasingly like it will be the dominant force in East Asia - a
region where the US formerly held sway without any rival.
China and the other emerging states need our help getting
to the next stage of development and this is where we can
play a major role in influencing the coming world. I’ve been
THE GUEST
2
“The work on mental and physical
enhancements has the potential of
changing human nature, eliminating
previous known limitations on mental
and physical strength”
Dr. Mathew J. Burrows :
“Changes in the global structure will continue to accelerate”

gained new powers from each new technological advance, but
the state has also benefitted. It takes longer for governments
to adapt and explore the possible uses and benefits. Given the
rapidity of the technological advances, however, governments
or states are likely to always be catching up for the foreseeable
future.
After 18 months of work, and 6 months after its pu-
blication, what are your biggest concerns looking out
15-20 years, (cyber, biotech,
multinational corporations,
balance between nations,
others…)? Inversely, what
makes you most optimistic
about the future?
Possibly my biggest
concern is Europe. We lay out
three scenarios in the work
for Europe’s future. One of
them - collapse of the euro - is
probably no longer (and may
never have been) in the cards.
But the other two present
two distinct futures for Eu-
rope - first, slow decline and
shrinking global role for Eu-
rope or second, a renaissance
in which Europe gets its economic and political house in or-
der and provides leadership in the world. The peaceful and
prosperous history of Europe since the Second World War is
something the rest of the world can learn a lot from. But I’ve
noticed in my exchanges outside of Europe, many no longer
see Europe as a model. I find this disturbing. Second concern
is the possibility that the situa-
tion between US and China
may turn into something re-
sembling the Cold War. The
Sino-US ties are complicated
- a mix of competition and
cooperation. China relies so much on the US, but many be-
lieve that the US may not allow China to continue to rise.
Many Americans feel threatened - economically, politically
and militarily - by China. Making sure the relationship does
not end up as one of pure rivalry will be very important for
world peace. Middle East and South Asia together is the third
biggest concern. It is not clear that natural turn of events in
those regions will lead - at least in the short term - to peace
and prosperity. More likely, without constant help from out-
side, many of those countries are on a path to instability and
conflict internally with real implications for global security.
The individual empowerment which is happening everywhere
is for me the biggest plus for the future. Oddly, many of the
people I talked to see this as a challenge. Many fear it will lead
to more religious, ethnic or nationalistic identities and I think
this is true in the short term.
But I also believe that individual empowerment will en-
gender greater initiative in solving the big global challenges
facing us. I believe it is very hopeful sign that many in the
rising middle classes see education as a top priority for them-
selves and their children. Another reason I’m optimistic about
the future is that most world leaders abhor the idea of conflict.
This is a big contrast with the period before the First World
War when many in power thought war was necessary and
even desirable. It fit in with Darwin’s theories on “survival of
the fittest.” It is not just that nuclear weapons are a huge de-
terrent, but many in the developing world see that war would
throw off their plans for development. The other big source
of optimism is the increasing opportunities afforded women
in the world. We wrote about the closing of the gender gap
on education and health throughout the world. This doesn’t
mean the gender gap in the workplace has closed and most
likely it will take generations
before that gap on career op-
portunities and pay is closed.
Nevertheless, with more equa-
lity in educational opportuni-
ties, it is probably a matter of
time before women - which is
half of humanity - can reach
their full potential.
GT 2030 is a fantastic
work that connects thin-
kers from many different
backgrounds and nationali-
ties. During the discussions
that you had with them, what
might be some of the pers-
pectives that have fundamen-
tally changed your thoughts
on the future?
I think the work we did on technologies was a game chan-
ger for me. Many of them are very promising, but they also
can create problems of their own. A lot of the biotech is fasci-
nating in that the work on mental and physical enhancements
has the potential of fundamentally changing human nature,
eliminating previous known
limitations on mental and
physical strength. However,
without some control or regu-
lation, we could be headed for
a nightmare where there will
be unequal access to the breakthroughs, giving some people
or peoples or particular countries a disproportionate level of
benefits.
How is this work perceived by the Obama administra-
tion and by other groups that you’ve engaged with? What
feedback have you received?
Senior members of the Obama Administration eagerly
awaited Global Trends 2030 and in fact sought briefings
throughout the production of the work. They saw it as the
analytical base for beginning work on the National Security
Strategy and the quadrennial strategic documents which the
Pentagon, State Department and Department of Homeland
Security prepare at the beginning of each new Administration.
Do you think it could be worthwhile to expand the ho-
rizon of “Aetos” to include decision-makers and thinkers
from other countries?
I totally agree on the constant need to expand perspectives
and also to think longer term. The short term, here and now
crises also trump longer term problems that can be put off.
However, we know many of those longer term problems be-
come crises because we haven’t taken decisions ahead of time
to prevent their escalation into a crisis. The accelerating pace
of change is a huge challenge for all governments and one that
we haven’t gotten a handle on. ●
THE GUEST
3
“The accelerating pace of change is a huge
challenge for all governments and one
that we haven’t gotten a handle on.”
Olivier Erschens speaking with Mathew J. Burrows,
W Hotel, Washington, May 2nd
, 2013.

“In 2013, the
art of governing
consists of
imagining and
anticipating;
detecting at the
earliest possible
moment future
defining factors;
capturing
the slightest
signs and
indications.”
“Foreseeing the
future requires
us to “pre-feel,”
to project ahead
of oneself –
impossible by
looking back or
if bogged down
in the emptiness
of daily life...”
Time, a new strategic space?
“Slowly, surely, time replaces space as a decisive factor, or central paradigm, of strategy.” This is
what the criminologist Xavier Raufer demonstrates in a recent study for the magazine, “Géoécono-
mie,” edited by the Institut Choiseul. If, after 2000 years, space and time form “the two strategic axes
of humanity,” the former seems to impose itself beginning with the 19th
century. The geographical
map is the “territory;” it is the principal reference point for human choices, whether political,
economic or military. But since the end of the 20th
century and the onset of the information age
and the digital revolution that effectively abolishes distances, the time factor finds a predominant
place. As Xavier Raufer explains, “In 2013, the art of governing consists of imagining and anticipa-
ting; detecting at the earliest possible moment future defining factors; capturing the slightest signs and
indications. Thus, the post-9/11 Congressional Commission affirmed that the attacks came from a de-
fault in Washington’s imagination, from a retrospective vision of the threat – from which comes today’s
vital need to imagine and anticipate.” Take, as evidence, the technical development of “predictive”
policies in all domains, from economic, financial or security, leading to projects such as “Data
in the Sky” or “Crime Predictors” that are supposed to furnish reliable, mathematical models that
can predict the future. “Are these techniques effective? No, because they utilize the same algorithms
that were utilized byWall Street by the “Quants” in the 1990’s to protect the New York Stock Exchange
from a crash – but nevertheless didn’t allow them to anticipate the sub-prime crisis that began at the
end of 2007.”
Nevertheless, anticipating risks, as soon as they are imminent, remains evermore pressing.
“But how is this imminence oriented? Toward the past? No, danger lurks in the future. Tomorrow,
maybe tonight, in the future in any case, drama will strike. All types of strategic shocks are in this way
possible. Thus, foreseeing the future requires us to “pre-feel,” to project ahead of oneself – impossible by
looking back or if bogged down in the emptiness of daily life.” Thus, Xavier Raufer proposes the path
that he calls “the early detection.” A state of mind that privileges meditation, and the attention
given to “secret modesty of beginnings” (Carl Schmitt), “to that which occurs unperceived, simple,
unapparent” and that nevertheless feeds “that which is coming.” The remarks may seem very phi-
losophical, but the criminologist illustrates the viability of his concept with striking examples.
Above all, he has the merit of obliging us to really “think through” our position in regards to time.
Where, more than ever, constitutes the “territory” where our decision needs to be made.
For further reading: «Temps, Terreur, Crime. Comprendre, prévenir : le facteur temporel», by Xavier Raufer,
in Géoéconomie n°64, Choiseul éditions, March-April 2013 ; AETOS mensuel n°6, March 2012.
Extracts
Acceleration and deluge of information. “Man lives henceforth in the worldly, moment-to-mo-
ment rush. His time horizon shrinks without ceasing: the acceleration of the rhythm of life, technical
“innovations” that eat up one’s time, the thoughtless rush forward – becoming, at certain moments, a
sheer atmosphere of panic. All for the latest fad or ideology? No. The origin of the obsession, of the accele-
ration, of rushes and panics is objective. It comes from a flood, a tsunami of information from e-mails, 15
million texts, 350,000 tweets – and even more digital information from hundreds of diverse forms. Let’s
consider that in just two days in 2010 mankind (with their thousands of devices, sensors, surveillance
cameras, weather probes, credit cards, telescopes, etc.) emitted 5 exabytes of information – as much in 48
hours as emitted from the beginning of human civilization to the year 2003. This immense acceleration
of human history upends traditional representations of how the world works; devastating old models that
had been taken as given; degrading stable systems for the benefit of others, more chaotic. From which
comes, in a world marked by acute tension, a resistance to too much change, deemed too brutal. An exis-
tential whirlwind thus turns, faster and faster, seemingly unable to slow down. So what about tomorrow?
Will the current tensions and rejections always be there?” (Xavier Raufer, op. cit., p. 187-188)
The art of decision-making. “In human society, to go somewhere together supposes first of all a
decision. Making a decision is always crucial, today in the information age as well as when man first
came out from caves. Without decisions, no collective life is possible. To decide is to orient the future, to
fashion what is to come. It’s a hard exercise in an opaque information society – abounding, and, as seen
from above, sometimes submerged. This comes naturally, but is also due to the maneuvers of certain actors
of the information-sphere who dissimulate their propaganda in an apparent disorder that “drowns the
fish.” Thus, to decide requires a long term perspective, which Jacques Lesourne demonstrates (Les temps
de la prospective, Odile Jacob, 2012)” (ibid., p. 191) - cf. about J. Lesourne AETOS hebdo n°38,
07/2012. ●
ANALYSIS AND PERSPECTIVES
AETOS
A CESA publication
Centre d’études
stratégiques aérospatiales
1 place Joffre
75700 Paris SP 07 - BP 43
www.cesa.air.defense.gouv.fr
Publishing Director:
Colonel Olivier Erschens
Contact:
olivier.erschens@inet.air.defense.gouv.fr
Tél : +33 (0) 144 42 83 95
To Receive AETOS:
strategie.cesa@gmail.com
4

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