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Part 1: Electronic Markets
The Trading Theory Series
Notices
● Welcome back!
● Trading competition v2.0
● Quantopian sponsorship and prizes
● Call for speakers
● Call for project ideas
● Chatwithtraders.com (Quantopian series)
Part 1: Electronic Markets
The Trading Theory Series
Trading theory
series
Overview
● High level introductions
● Quant trading topics
● Part 1: Electronic markets
● Part 2: Portfolio optimisation
● Part 3: Trading costs
History
A market matches buyers and sellers
Markets to trade assets come in many forms
● Southampton Free & For Sale facebook page
● Shouting across the trading floor or down the phone
● London Stock Exchange
A good market provides
● A fair price
● Low cost
● Liquidity
● Transparency?
Open outcry markets
Stock exchanges become more automated
1971
NASDAQ opens
Electronic quote
system
1976
NYSE DOT
Broker sends
electronic orders
to floor
1987
NASDAQ SOES
Investors send
electronic orders
2001
NYSE Direct+
Automated
electronic
trading system
Know the market to trade successfully
● Trading algo success depends on market structure
● Understand impact of liquidity
● Understand impact of spreads
● Understand impact of trading costs
These are especially relevant to:
● Very large trades
● High frequency trading (HFT)
Increasingly relevant to all asset classes
Market participants
Asset types and participants
● Ordinary shares
● Corporate bonds
● Government bonds
● FX
● Commodities
● Real estate
● Derivatives: futures/options
● Swaps
● Mutual funds
● ETFs
● Companies (IPOs)
● Shareholders
● Company directors
● Mutual funds
● ETFs
● Hedge funds
● Prop traders
● Day traders
● Retail investors
● Market makers
Different motivations to participate
Fundamental: not driven by the market, long term
● Hedging (manufacturers, production, etc.)
● Futures / options as insurance
● Government intervention (QE, currency, buy/sell assets)
Proprietary: acts on current market information
● Hedge funds
● Day traders
● “Prop shops”
Market makers: facilitate a market in order to make money
Limit order book (LOB)
Visualising the state of the LOB
£79.51£79.52
£79.53
£79.54
£79.55£79.56
£79.57
£79.58
£79.59£79.60
£79.61
£79.62
£79.63£79.64
£79.65
£79.66
BIDS ASKS
Visualising the state of the LOB
£79.51£79.52
£79.53
£79.54
£79.55£79.56
£79.57
£79.58
£79.59£79.60
£79.61
£79.62
£79.63£79.64
£79.65
£79.66
Bid price
Mid-price
Ask price
New LOs arrive and are matched
£79.51£79.52
£79.53
£79.54
£79.55£79.56
£79.57
£79.58
£79.59£79.60
£79.61
£79.62
£79.63£79.64
£79.65
£79.66
New LOs arrive and are matched
£79.51£79.52
£79.53
£79.54
£79.55£79.56
£79.57
£79.58
£79.59£79.60
£79.61
£79.62
£79.63£79.64
£79.65
£79.66
New LOs arrive and are matched
£79.51£79.52
£79.53
£79.54
£79.55£79.56
£79.57
£79.58
£79.59£79.60
£79.61
£79.62
£79.63£79.64
£79.65
£79.66
New LOs arrive and are matched
£79.51£79.52
£79.53
£79.54
£79.55£79.56
£79.57
£79.58
£79.59£79.60
£79.61
£79.62
£79.63£79.64
£79.65
£79.66
Matched
Visualising the state of the LOB
● Best bid and ask price define the spread
● Liquid = small spread
● Price is discrete (tick)
● Tick price is smallest spread
● Limit orders are posted to book
● Limit orders are matched
● Buys always higher than asks
Matching via price-time priority
£79.51£79.52
£79.53
£79.54
£79.55£79.56
£79.57
£79.58
£79.59£79.60
£79.61
£79.62
£79.63£79.64
£79.65
£79.66
Matching via price-time priority
£79.51£79.52
£79.53
£79.54
£79.55£79.56
£79.57
£79.58
£79.59£79.60
£79.61
£79.62
£79.63£79.64
£79.65
£79.66
Matching via price-time priority
£79.51£79.52
£79.53
£79.54
£79.55£79.56
£79.57
£79.58
£79.59£79.60
£79.61
£79.62
£79.63£79.64
£79.65
£79.66
Matching via price-time priority
● Best price (highest for bid, lowest for ask) has priority
● Earlier orders have priority
● Market orders before limit orders
● Many other possible matching systems
○ E.g. auctions
Matching market orders
£79.51£79.52
£79.53
£79.54
£79.55£79.56
£79.57
£79.58
£79.59£79.60
£79.61
£79.62
£79.63£79.64
£79.65
£79.66
MO
Matching market orders
2
1
£79.51£79.52
£79.53
£79.54
£79.55£79.56
£79.57
£79.58
£79.59£79.60
£79.61
£79.62
£79.63£79.64
£79.65
£79.66
1 2
£79.56 £79.55
MO
Rerouting orders
1
£79.51£79.52
£79.53
£79.54
£79.55£79.56
£79.57
£79.58
£79.59£79.60
£79.61
£79.62
£79.63£79.64
£79.65
£79.66
1 2
£79.56
MO
Rerouted
Order types
● Limit orders
○ Passive
○ Liquidity providing
○ Guaranteed price - undetermined time
● Market orders
○ Aggressive
○ Liquidity taking
○ Immediately matched - undetermined price
○ Effective price
● Many more order types
● Orders may be rerouted
○ Regulation
● Fees charged for different orders (distorts market prices)
Market technology
● Book can be lit or dark
● Getting a direct feed:
○ Speed critical
○ Length of cable critical (firm location)
○ Large cost for direct feed $$$
○ Larger cost for colocation $$$$$$$
● A technology race for participants
Apply your LOB knowledge
Visualising Bitcoin HFT strategies in LOB data
Image credit: parasec.net
Visualising betting strategies in LOB Data
K. Croxson & J. Reade. “Information and efficiency: goal
arrival in soccer betting”. The Economic Journal 124. (2007)
Understand predatory HFT
A B
Understand predatory HFT
A B
MO
100 units
£0.23 £0.23
Understand predatory HFT
A B
Matched
80 units
Route 20 units
MO
100 units
£0.24 £0.23
Understand predatory HFT
A B
Matched
80 units
Route 20 units
MO
100 units
Matched
20 units
£0.24 £0.23
Understand predatory HFT
A B
MO
100 units
£0.23 £0.23
Understand predatory HFT
A B
Matched
80 units
Route 20 units
MO
100 units
£0.24 £0.23
!!!
Understand predatory HFT
A B
Matched
80 units
Route 20 units
MO
100 units
£0.24 £0.26
Take
liquidity
Understand predatory HFT
A B
Matched
80 units
Route 20 units
MO
100 units
£0.24 £0.26
Offer
liquidity
Matched 20
units at 26p £
Market Making
Market makers function
● Provides liquidity
● Takes on the risk of price movements
● Profits from offering a spread
● Averse to holding assets
● Large institutions
● HFT often used
Grossman-Miller Model solution
An agent wants to sell ‘X’ shares - what price do ‘N’ MM’s offer for their risk?
● MM will only buy assuming a subsequent sell
● MM will ask for a premium to compensate risk of price movements
● Agent is price sensitive -> won’t sell all shares above fair price
Grossman-Miller Model solution
An agent wants to sell ‘X’ shares - what price do ‘N’ MM’s offer for their risk?
● MM will only buy assuming a subsequent sell
● MM will ask for a premium to compensate risk of price movements
● Agent is price sensitive -> won’t sell all shares above fair price
In equilibrium:
Is HFT good?
Does it damage markets?
Does it improve efficiency?
Many more open questions...
That’s all!
Get in touch
sotonquants.com
facebook.com/soton-qaunts
meetup.com/soton-quants
In 2 weeks:
Part 2 - Portfolio optimisation
Speak to me if you have project
ideas

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Quant trading theory series: electronic markets

  • 1. Part 1: Electronic Markets The Trading Theory Series
  • 2. Notices ● Welcome back! ● Trading competition v2.0 ● Quantopian sponsorship and prizes ● Call for speakers ● Call for project ideas ● Chatwithtraders.com (Quantopian series)
  • 3. Part 1: Electronic Markets The Trading Theory Series
  • 4. Trading theory series Overview ● High level introductions ● Quant trading topics ● Part 1: Electronic markets ● Part 2: Portfolio optimisation ● Part 3: Trading costs
  • 6. A market matches buyers and sellers Markets to trade assets come in many forms ● Southampton Free & For Sale facebook page ● Shouting across the trading floor or down the phone ● London Stock Exchange A good market provides ● A fair price ● Low cost ● Liquidity ● Transparency?
  • 8. Stock exchanges become more automated 1971 NASDAQ opens Electronic quote system 1976 NYSE DOT Broker sends electronic orders to floor 1987 NASDAQ SOES Investors send electronic orders 2001 NYSE Direct+ Automated electronic trading system
  • 9. Know the market to trade successfully ● Trading algo success depends on market structure ● Understand impact of liquidity ● Understand impact of spreads ● Understand impact of trading costs These are especially relevant to: ● Very large trades ● High frequency trading (HFT)
  • 10. Increasingly relevant to all asset classes
  • 12. Asset types and participants ● Ordinary shares ● Corporate bonds ● Government bonds ● FX ● Commodities ● Real estate ● Derivatives: futures/options ● Swaps ● Mutual funds ● ETFs ● Companies (IPOs) ● Shareholders ● Company directors ● Mutual funds ● ETFs ● Hedge funds ● Prop traders ● Day traders ● Retail investors ● Market makers
  • 13. Different motivations to participate Fundamental: not driven by the market, long term ● Hedging (manufacturers, production, etc.) ● Futures / options as insurance ● Government intervention (QE, currency, buy/sell assets) Proprietary: acts on current market information ● Hedge funds ● Day traders ● “Prop shops” Market makers: facilitate a market in order to make money
  • 15. Visualising the state of the LOB £79.51£79.52 £79.53 £79.54 £79.55£79.56 £79.57 £79.58 £79.59£79.60 £79.61 £79.62 £79.63£79.64 £79.65 £79.66 BIDS ASKS
  • 16. Visualising the state of the LOB £79.51£79.52 £79.53 £79.54 £79.55£79.56 £79.57 £79.58 £79.59£79.60 £79.61 £79.62 £79.63£79.64 £79.65 £79.66 Bid price Mid-price Ask price
  • 17. New LOs arrive and are matched £79.51£79.52 £79.53 £79.54 £79.55£79.56 £79.57 £79.58 £79.59£79.60 £79.61 £79.62 £79.63£79.64 £79.65 £79.66
  • 18. New LOs arrive and are matched £79.51£79.52 £79.53 £79.54 £79.55£79.56 £79.57 £79.58 £79.59£79.60 £79.61 £79.62 £79.63£79.64 £79.65 £79.66
  • 19. New LOs arrive and are matched £79.51£79.52 £79.53 £79.54 £79.55£79.56 £79.57 £79.58 £79.59£79.60 £79.61 £79.62 £79.63£79.64 £79.65 £79.66
  • 20. New LOs arrive and are matched £79.51£79.52 £79.53 £79.54 £79.55£79.56 £79.57 £79.58 £79.59£79.60 £79.61 £79.62 £79.63£79.64 £79.65 £79.66 Matched
  • 21. Visualising the state of the LOB ● Best bid and ask price define the spread ● Liquid = small spread ● Price is discrete (tick) ● Tick price is smallest spread ● Limit orders are posted to book ● Limit orders are matched ● Buys always higher than asks
  • 22. Matching via price-time priority £79.51£79.52 £79.53 £79.54 £79.55£79.56 £79.57 £79.58 £79.59£79.60 £79.61 £79.62 £79.63£79.64 £79.65 £79.66
  • 23. Matching via price-time priority £79.51£79.52 £79.53 £79.54 £79.55£79.56 £79.57 £79.58 £79.59£79.60 £79.61 £79.62 £79.63£79.64 £79.65 £79.66
  • 24. Matching via price-time priority £79.51£79.52 £79.53 £79.54 £79.55£79.56 £79.57 £79.58 £79.59£79.60 £79.61 £79.62 £79.63£79.64 £79.65 £79.66
  • 25. Matching via price-time priority ● Best price (highest for bid, lowest for ask) has priority ● Earlier orders have priority ● Market orders before limit orders ● Many other possible matching systems ○ E.g. auctions
  • 29. Order types ● Limit orders ○ Passive ○ Liquidity providing ○ Guaranteed price - undetermined time ● Market orders ○ Aggressive ○ Liquidity taking ○ Immediately matched - undetermined price ○ Effective price ● Many more order types ● Orders may be rerouted ○ Regulation ● Fees charged for different orders (distorts market prices)
  • 30. Market technology ● Book can be lit or dark ● Getting a direct feed: ○ Speed critical ○ Length of cable critical (firm location) ○ Large cost for direct feed $$$ ○ Larger cost for colocation $$$$$$$ ● A technology race for participants
  • 31. Apply your LOB knowledge
  • 32. Visualising Bitcoin HFT strategies in LOB data Image credit: parasec.net
  • 33. Visualising betting strategies in LOB Data K. Croxson & J. Reade. “Information and efficiency: goal arrival in soccer betting”. The Economic Journal 124. (2007)
  • 35. Understand predatory HFT A B MO 100 units £0.23 £0.23
  • 36. Understand predatory HFT A B Matched 80 units Route 20 units MO 100 units £0.24 £0.23
  • 37. Understand predatory HFT A B Matched 80 units Route 20 units MO 100 units Matched 20 units £0.24 £0.23
  • 38. Understand predatory HFT A B MO 100 units £0.23 £0.23
  • 39. Understand predatory HFT A B Matched 80 units Route 20 units MO 100 units £0.24 £0.23 !!!
  • 40. Understand predatory HFT A B Matched 80 units Route 20 units MO 100 units £0.24 £0.26 Take liquidity
  • 41. Understand predatory HFT A B Matched 80 units Route 20 units MO 100 units £0.24 £0.26 Offer liquidity Matched 20 units at 26p £
  • 43. Market makers function ● Provides liquidity ● Takes on the risk of price movements ● Profits from offering a spread ● Averse to holding assets ● Large institutions ● HFT often used
  • 44. Grossman-Miller Model solution An agent wants to sell ‘X’ shares - what price do ‘N’ MM’s offer for their risk? ● MM will only buy assuming a subsequent sell ● MM will ask for a premium to compensate risk of price movements ● Agent is price sensitive -> won’t sell all shares above fair price
  • 45. Grossman-Miller Model solution An agent wants to sell ‘X’ shares - what price do ‘N’ MM’s offer for their risk? ● MM will only buy assuming a subsequent sell ● MM will ask for a premium to compensate risk of price movements ● Agent is price sensitive -> won’t sell all shares above fair price In equilibrium:
  • 46. Is HFT good? Does it damage markets? Does it improve efficiency? Many more open questions...
  • 47. That’s all! Get in touch sotonquants.com facebook.com/soton-qaunts meetup.com/soton-quants In 2 weeks: Part 2 - Portfolio optimisation Speak to me if you have project ideas