"Serial Crimes of Subduction: Giant Earthquakes and Tsunamis in Oregon's Past and Future" This Science Pub took place at the Mission Theater in Portland, Oregon, on Tuesday, October 20, 2009. It was presented by Brian Atwater, a U.S. Geological Survey geologist based at the University of Washington, and by Yumei Wang, a geotechnical engineer at the Oregon Department of Geology and Mineral Industries (DOGAMI).

3. Photo of Brian Atwater describing tools and clues at Science Pub
Photo by D. Scott Frey

30. Serial Crimes of Subduction:
Giant Earthquake & Tsunamis in
Oregon’s Past & Future
OMSI Science Pub
Brian Atwater & Yumei Wang
U.S.G.S. & OR Dept of Geology (DOGAMI)
October 20, 2009

31. Origin of Earthquakes

32. Why is Pacific NW Unprepared?
“Risk of Earthquakes in Oregon Very Low“
Geologist John Eliot Allen, 1983 Oregonian
”Recent” Seismic Info
Decades of Inadequate
Oregon Building Codes

33. ~ Seismic Building Code Maps
1976 1994
%g Zone
(10% PE in 50 yrs)
(Algermissen & Perkins)

34. Oregon Earthquake Study (1998)
Estimated
Damage & Loss
Soil Response
Earthquake Shaking
Geography Layer

35. Champion: “Q9 The Earthquake Kid”
Oregon Senator Peter Courtney
Findings: Weak Buildings & Tsunami

36. FOCUS: Weak Community Buildings
Emergency Facilities & Public Schools
VA Hospital. 1971 San Fernando CA, M6.6

37. Earthquake Damage to Schools
2008 China
19k students dead
2005 Pakistan
8,000 schools
17k students dead
2003 Algeria
130 schools
1988 Armenia
>1,000 students dead 1964 Alaska magnitude 9.2 quake
School pulled apart by landslide

38. Xing Fu Primary School (2008)

39. Yingxiu Middle School (2008)

40. Seismic Engineering & Construction

41. Weak buildings can collapse
Post-1994 seismic building codes- adequate.
Pre-1994 seismic buildings codes- inadequate. Some
older buildings are dangerous
2001 Oregon laws require seismic safety in
schools & emergency facilities
Require strengthening of existing collapse-prone
buildings

42. DOGAMI’s REPORT (2007)
170 School Districts & 1,101 Schools
2,185 School Buildings
273 Very High Risk
745 High Risk
501 Moderate Risk
666 Low Risk
1,198 were built before 1950
Risk Scores for Schools & Emergency Service Buildings (2007 DOGAMI report)
www.oregongeology.org/sub/projects/rvs/default.htm

43. Unreinforced Masonry (URMs)
94 URMs surveyed (1933 URMs outlawed in CA)

44. 70 Schools collapsed. 120 damaged.
1933 Long Beach, CA Magnitude 6.3

45. Buildings with Weak 1st-Stories

46. “Tilt up” buildings
Structural drawings
reveal seismic design
loads not incorporated

47. Buildings in Tsunami Zone
Schools
in
Tsunami
zone
Inundation in
yellow areas

48. Timeline
2007 DOGAMI Report:
schools & emergency
facilities 2009 New Grant Program
2032 Schools
Fixed
2002
Ballot 2022 Emergency
Measures Facilities Fixed
2001
Safety
Laws

49. 2009 Seismic Rehabilitation Grant Program
aka “Courtney Grants”
Public Grade, Middle & High Schools
Community Colleges & Public Universities
Fire & Police Stations, & Hospitals
2009-11 Legislature: $30 million state bonds
$15 M Public Schools & $15 M Fire, Police, & Hospitals
($1.2 B authorized by voters)
VIDEO: www.oregongeology.org/sub/earthquakes/

50. Purpose of “Courtney” Grants
Eliminate collapse-prone schools
Improve community preparedness
Schools & Emergency Facilities
may augment state grant funds for
additional upgrades
2009 Grant Program
www.oregon.gov/OMD/OEM/
Quake Safe Schools (Risk Scores)
www.ode.state.or.us/go/quakesafeschools/

51. Applications due Nov. 15, 2009!

52. 2005 Seismic Risk Management Program
Oregon University Buildings
Ondine
Residence
Hall (1966) Weak floor
prone to
collapse
Portland
State
University

53. Cross Bracing
Installation in Progress

54. Concrete Forms for Shear Wall

55. Steel Plate Wall
Floor-to-Floor Connections

56. Rebar Coupler Problem Discovered
& Improved

57. Earthquake & Tsunami Preparedness
When you feel shaking,
“Duck, cover & hold”
&
“Move inland & uphill”
to protect from near-field tsunami
But…some coastal communities
require tsunami vertical refuges
for Cascadia tsunamis

58. 1964 Alaska Tsunami, Cannon Beach
Bridge ~300 m House ~400 m
Impact of 1964 Alaska Tsunami
e nt
Bridge
alignm Cannon Beach
Elementary School
House
footprint
Photo: Hillsboro Argus, March 30, 1964

59. Tsunami Vertical Refuges
Japan
USA
? Indonesia

60. Conceptual Design
Cannon Beach City Hall
Tsunami Evacuation Building
(Ecola
Architects)
by Jay Raskin, Yumei Wang, Marcella M. Boyer,
Javier Moncada, Kent Yu, & Harry Yeh

61. Build Tsunami Refuges in PNW
Hypothetical
Locations in
Seaside, OR
Modified from D.Cox

62. “Portland Hotspot” (red) =
Oregon’s fuel supply hub

63. “Portland Hotspot” Willamette River

64. “Portland Hotspot”
Surface Geology & Geology Map
Madin & others, 2009

65. Liquefaction & Lateral Spreading
During Shaking
Before After
Sand supports loads Fluid pressure rises Sand is compacted
through grain-to-grain Grains float apart Sand volcanoes on
contacts Sand loses strength surface
& can flow downhill
Water, sand ejected

66. Liquefaction sand boils
Nisqually Wildlife Refuge (2001)
Courtesy: Nisqually Earthquake Clearinghouse

67. Liquefaction & Lateral Spreads
8/07 Japan quake

68. “Portland Hotspot” Tank Farms

69. “Portland Hotspot” Marine Oil Terminals
Vulnerable Piers

70. Fuel Pipelines

71. Electrical Transmission
Eros
ion
Lan
dsli
de

72. DAMAGE: 1999 Taiwan Quake
Slide: Leon Kempner, BPA, 11/05

73. DAMAGE: 1964 Alaska Quake
timber
piles
ground
displacement

74. Liquefaction, sliding, uplifting, anchorage, fires
1995 Kobe
Bhuj, India 1999 Turkey

75. Liquefaction: Tanks bouyant

76. Fix Schools & Emergency
Facilities
Build Tsunami Refuges
Reliable Fuel Supply
Disaster Preparedness
Requires Risk Management
for Frequent (storms…) &
www.oregongeology.com (DOGAMI)

77. Questions?